ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde

It’s still early days in the life of Peter Beattie’s bid for federal parliament, but a ReachTEL poll suggests he is taking on a considerable challenge in contesting the marginal LNP seat of Forde.

A snap ReachTEL automated phone poll of Forde, conducted immediately after today’s big news, suggests Peter Beattie has his work cut out for him in overcoming the 1.6% Liberal National Party margin in the southern Brisbane fringe seat. The poll has LNP member Bert van Manen leading Beattie by 48.3% to 39.9% on the primary vote, and by 54-46 on two-party preferred. The sample size on the poll is 725.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

492 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde”

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  1. [If he gets here (and I havent seen it on his twitter account as confirmed) Watson will have the authority from his position on the Leveson enquiry to remind people here of the criminal tendencies of news corpse.]

    I’m sure that :monkey: will be looking forward to the first presser he has to do after this guy arrives. πŸ™‚

  2. glorycon

    no i think potential swingers whatever people say and including the 10% declared undecided and rest who say they could change (am sure these are stats) then 20% possible. people still in slogan categories but there will be change. might agree with paine that campaign needed to be 2 weeks longer

  3. am confused. one reliable optimistic soul today said 44% and lib will lose but they already on 45%. number crunching is very confusing.

  4. β€œ@EJSnowdenOffic: New leaks will show how NSA has been spying and invading communications of Latin America, specially in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina.”

  5. beatie as much to strengthen cabinet as anything else – think it great he came back to help labor … unlike the rest of the front bench who jumped ship this year. great commitment to future of country dont think

  6. *night

    Don’t forget, we still have the Monkey’s costings…oh and

    MOFOS

    the G S T 😎

    Go Ruddy, I hate the rotten monkey 😐

  7. lefte I am so fed up with blind sided people

    especially those who think betting shops have any thing to do with elections also

    polls come on ????????????????????????????????

  8. Rossmore,

    Leave Puffy alone!

    It was me wot done it:
    [In modern use, ilk is used in phrases such as of his ilk, of that ilk, to mean β€˜type’ or β€˜sort.’ The use arose out of a misunderstanding of the earlier, Scottish use in the phrase of that ilk, where it means β€˜of the same name or place.’ For this reason, some traditionalists regard the modern use as incorrect. It is, however, the only common current use and is now part of standard English.]

  9. Geoffrey the LNP are sitting on 44% based on all the polling which puts them just in front assuming they can count on Lynne and New England as being in the bag but it is tight. I don’t think it will stay this close but I am not confident which way it will break.

  10. Centre
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 11:16 pm | Permalink
    If only Labor can hold Lindsay and Greenway, and Bass and Braddon 😐
    ==========================================================

    after abbott insult to day of what he offered tas
    we would be fools to vote for him

    he says he will be back next week with more

  11. [Rudd was getting beaten by Abbott so they knifed him for Gillard
    Gillard was getting beaten by Abbott so they brought in Carr brushing an Aboriginal candidate aside
    Gillard was getting beaten by Abbott so they knifed her for Rudd
    Rudd was getting beaten by Abbott so they brought in Beattie brushing aside the endorsed local candidate]

    Not correct as you well know.

    Rudd was knifed after some long planning for everything BUT his poll position, which at the last was a tidy 52/48. It was the knifing that put the Coalition way back in the game by ruining Labor’s PV.

    Rudd having been returned ruined your little dream of having a large majority in the HoR and having the Senate. He has returned the PV from 29% to near normal levels, and only 1% off taking government.

    You hubris has returned now that you have seen that Labor is still behind, but well within reach. But for a while there you comments showed you less than happy with Labor’s resurgence.

    Bringing in Beattie of course makes a lot of sense Qld being the place where Labor can pick up extra seats and Beattie a well known, respected, if not always liked candidate that will do better.

    And what Labor needs is to grab the public’s attention who are no doubt doing their best to avoid the flood of politics on tv and radio and papers. So the advent of Beattie be it good or bad does exactly that, it breaks into the public’s closed mind for a moment, gets their attention.

    There has been a massive recovery in Labor’s PV and TPP this past month and he is well and truly PPM. If 1% change their vote over the next number of weeks then the election goes to Labor. So hubris so early may be just a little silly.

    As I have said the election will despite Murdoch media’s scraping of the lowness of the American barrel will depend mostly on Rudd being able to get the attention of the public and speaking over the media to them.

    His attacking Abbott and Murdoch over the NBN will do that, his attack Abbott’s stupid turn the boats back policy in its capacity to cause conflict with Indonesia was also big enough to gets some attention.

    The usual type of electioneering is so much mud wrestling which they would do well to avoid.

    The front pages of The Daily Telegraph (and Courier Mail now) are of course blatant electioneering by its owner for Abbott. Murdoch has sent a person who can only be described as low life scum by Australians standards to run the Abbott anti Rudd campaign through their papers.

    Rudd Labor should be reminding Aust just what Murdoch papers got up to in the UK, how many were charged, going to prison and their low deeds. And warn that the current antics of his Aust papers seem to be treading down that same path of zero ethical standards.

  12. Tlbd … Mea culpa…. to u and to Puff …but I stand by my use of ilk, as you appear to concede.

    But I had no idea of its earlier use, so thanks for that….

  13. Geoffrey I think the extra 2 weeks would be to long

    people tire and for get

    for instance mark butler came down to day
    the ship that goes to the antartic is rather old and has to be replaced there was talk the new one could end up being in w a

    to day he announced a new ship and its stay here

    so people know that now give them another 5 weeks they will for get

    I am confident most of the time as abbott comes across and very incompetent person,,

  14. Now given the obvious anti Rudd anti Labor campaign of the NewsCorpse papers in Aust in their headlines I would suggest that it gives Rudd the chance to turn it to his advantage…..

    He has started to do this already.

    But what I suggest he also do is gather these grossly bias daily papers…and each day with each one call a press conference each morning…to reiterate with more evidence that some foreign media magnate in charge of a group that has gone into systemic criminal behavior in the UK is trying to MAKE Australians vote against Labor.

    Everyday these headlines giving a talking point, a reason to go to TV media, morning shows even, press conferences to bang on the Abbott/NewsCorpse attempt to corrupt Austs democracy for the sake of stopping the NBN.

  15. I have read a little of the long piece about the nbn

    now I think the young people would not read this and NOT listen to turnbull all that tech stuff over my head for sure

    the people just know what the nbn does

    all this tech stuff they have no time to be bothered with
    they also know they get it free to the door

    turnbull goes on with so much stuff above heads or
    ??

  16. Guytaur 376
    Soon will be home again, end of month. πŸ™‚ pleased to be coming home, especially to vote, as only place you can vote in UK is at Australia House in London
    Doing more of the fringe events in the next week+ here in Edinburgh, plus a few dinners and lunches Took the grandsons to Dundee. wonderful Science Museum plus “Discovery” google it amazing. The boys a little bit to young to appreciate it but I loved it.

  17. Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 11:33 pm | Permalink
    Now given the obvious anti Rudd
    ====================================================

    do you pass on your thoughts, which I think the above is excellent

    also any one who tweets go to the courier mail tweet site and tell them what a great add it is for labor

    take the mickey out of them

  18. my say

    that was paine’s idea, the extra two weeks. but you might be right, people are tired of politics and abbott exploits the fatigue he created

  19. Guytaur thnxs for that link to the Emma Watson piece … http://t.co/qGFrbBXwp2

    Its a complex issue but I think she convincingly demolished the Turnbull and Murdoch lines about welcoming the NBN. Telstra is clearly no innocent in this game either. Its very reminiscent about the right wings opposition in 19th century England to a national network of water and sewerage pipes in the interests of public health. Establishing vital infrastructure projects such as clean water and sewerage, broadband etc requires a national approach and not be left to the vagaries of the market place.

  20. If Tom Watson took up all the offers he is getting on twitter he would never get back to Poor Old Mother England.

  21. guytaur

    entirely. it’s been a very good day, truth survived against the forces of machinating and anti democracy, and the hope for future political transformation of this country still exists …

  22. yes lefty e but even the gamblers here don’t believe that
    article,

    years ago when the int, where high I took a part time job in telephone betting,,, turned me off for life
    not that I had ever even been to a race track

    I know people who have taken their children,

    our s never go to the races I think that’s what broke up my son and his girl friend a melboune girl she like to dress up and go he hated it

    he is in fun run s ect went in the three peakes a few years ago have u heard of that great event out grandson did his firs run last week end 2 and half k,19 min
    7 years old not bad first time

  23. am very angry with greens. having been a recent member. they have been some service to government but also on whole major handicap. their believe as rightful heirs to truth, power and democratic way is delusion – if they had any such chance they blw it several times over in past 5 years.

  24. GEORREY

    my prayer has been for 4 years now

    let good defeat evil

    I loved Julia but I think a male PM was needed to face off abbott and now I think KR was meant to come back
    to defeat the evil jg could not have done that

    so I see a reason for things,

    I have really grown to love kev again well I did before

    but we should be tweeting him and telling how great he is

    really what a great man to take on them and u know who them are, night

  25. there has to be a point where Abbott is put under the spotlight and cracks aka mark riley gospel truth moment. he is already fraying around the edges did not know what day it was etc and why on earth would he be quoting internal polling. i sense we are getting closer maybe it will be in the debate maybe not but the pressure is getting to him and it will happen sooner rather than later.

  26. Rossmore
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013

    do you watch the renovaton man is so good 6 /7 every night abc 1

    we saw the very first health act in writing last night,

    also it was mentioned that in the 60 that the tories tried to close down train lines,

    in favour of cars

    now what does that remind u of

    abbott no trains he likes roads

    it hit m this is to do with petrol
    think about it

  27. No I don’t think my daughter will return, she would have to do retraining in Oz(she is an actuary) Her husband is in a great job here as is she! The boys are settled and the in laws would die if they returned to OZ> On top of that a good excuse for me to travel:devil:

  28. as long as every one is happy that the main thing

    I don’t think I be so generous, I think part of me would die if one of my girls was not here
    may be an only child thing not having any one to call my own except the the girls and son

    we are blessed though are nt we

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