ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde

It’s still early days in the life of Peter Beattie’s bid for federal parliament, but a ReachTEL poll suggests he is taking on a considerable challenge in contesting the marginal LNP seat of Forde.

A snap ReachTEL automated phone poll of Forde, conducted immediately after today’s big news, suggests Peter Beattie has his work cut out for him in overcoming the 1.6% Liberal National Party margin in the southern Brisbane fringe seat. The poll has LNP member Bert van Manen leading Beattie by 48.3% to 39.9% on the primary vote, and by 54-46 on two-party preferred. The sample size on the poll is 725.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

492 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde”

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  1. Zoidlord I didn’t understand that point by Rua. It’s just not possible for everyone’s primary vote to go up in % terms. You can’t get more than 100%. From what I saw the majors are both up although the LNP was up more and that is at the expense of Greens (a lot) and others.

  2. And stop adding PAYG tax with-holdings from your employees to the total when you cry about all the taxes ‘youi’ pay. It is the employees paying their own taxes out of their wages as their PAYE tax.

    I am sick of seeing companies/employers pulling that shonky.

  3. Void Lord Rudd and the Burke have no intention of following through on the PNG solution. The smugglers know it… The bleeding heart lefties know it. It’s just a band-aid to get to the election. As Peter Garret put it. It will all change after we get in..

  4. New2This@253

    Void Lord Rudd and the Burke have no intention of following through on the PNG solution. The smugglers know it… The bleeding heart lefties know it. It’s just a band-aid to get to the election. As Peter Garret put it. It will all change after we get in..

    wow, referencing a quote from 2007 which is totally unrelated to the point in question.
    big ups to you.

  5. Abbott looks shocking in the advert I saw. Big wide light blue tie and all the makeup in the world could save him from looking tired.

    He looked as flat as the fish he was slicing today.

  6. Henry@244 I pay both. Paying no tax is not good when you go to see the bank manager. Trying to defraud the tax office is not worth the risk. The truth is that in this economic climate the tax payed is reduced due to lack of business done. As for bullshitting what would be the point.

  7. Henry

    Labor should be performing more strongly in Forde with or without Beattie.

    Lefty e

    How can you say that Beattie is going to win the seat with such confidence?

  8. Davidwh

    Oh WOW are the Greens going to get slaughtered or what?

    They deserve it, they had the chance to screw the Monkey before the Monkey screwed them on two occasions.

  9. [@tom_watson: @jessradio Yup. That @dailytelegraph front page did it. Sorting flights and clearing my diary.]

    You can check his twitter timeline, lots of supporting comments…..

  10. Puff you know better than taking me on.. You’ve never come out of it very well.

    Try a warm bath with Barry Manilow, some candles and your Keating bobble heads for company.. You’ll feel a lot better!

    😉

  11. I want to know who will be the new Greens leader after the election?

    Hahaha 😆

    It won’t be Milne.

    The Greens – Peak Pewny

    R.I.P.

    Not long now 😀

  12. [Sexism, like other forms of exclusion, trades on the power imbalance between a relatively empowered group — in this case males — and a relatively disempowered group — in this case females.

    On the day when males do not get privileges in virtue of not being females sexism will be an obsolete concept. If females ever become a relatively empowered group, then sexism against males will become a valid concept.]

    Thank you for that, Fran. You’ve captured my points far better than I did.

  13. [Abbott looks shocking in the advert I saw. Big wide light blue tie and all the makeup in the world could save him from looking tired. ]

    He’s looked the same for the past week or two.

    Talk about the Manchurian Candidate.

  14. Yeah.. I think Australians have learnt a lot from the Greens BOP experiment.
    Eek.
    No integrity(where is the ETS?)
    No clue economically
    No decent leader
    Cue next minority party on the left please…

  15. Oh for god’s sake, sexism in 2013 is blown right out of proportions.

    Had Julia Gillard been a Liberal Prime Minister she would have been adored, Murdoch and his butt cleaners would have been in love.

    Get real!

    Fair dinkum 😯

  16. Centre@259

    Henry

    Labor should be performing more strongly in Forde with or without Beattie.

    Lefty e

    How can you say that Beattie is going to win the seat with such confidence?

    the point is polling on the day when Beattie announced seems pointless, it would be more accurate to do so over the weekend.

  17. I’ve been trying to recall some star candidates from the past who didn’t quite live up to expectations. One was Clem Jones in Griffith in 1974, Lord Mayor of Brisbane at the time, announced by Gough with great fanfare, beaten at the election. Another was Bob Hawke, beaten in Corio in 1963, though he wasn’t so famous then. Others?

  18. Tisme

    I wouldn’t mind a Liberal government IF they would be fair dinkum and submitted their policies for costings.

    Is that a big deal, is that too much to ask?

  19. Jess Hill ‏@jessradio 18m
    @tom_watson You’re really coming to Australia?
    tom_watson ‏@tom_watson 16m
    @jessradio Yup. That @dailytelegraph front page did it. Sorting flights and clearing my diary.

  20. Centre

    [Had Julia Gillard been a Liberal Prime Minister she would have been adored, Murdoch and his butt cleaners would have been in love.]

    Possibly, but the coverage of her would still have been entirely gendered to render her an authentic female.

  21. Henry

    Labor are losing.

    I’m glad they polled the way they did, it may provide a greater insight in the other marginals where Beattie is not contesting.

  22. Goodnight people. To the conservatives here, rejoice that we’re on track for victory, as we have been all year. To the liberals here, keep dreaming, in less than a month you’ll be put out of your misery.

  23. Centre
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 10:07 pm | Permalink
    Henry

    Labor should be performing more strongly in Forde with or without Beattie.

    Lefty e

    How can you say that Beattie is going to win the seat
    ==============================================

    what If they just ask are u voting lnp or labor

    of if not most would not have a clue about beattie
    they could even started the poll at around three o ‘clock
    as its a stupid computer voice

    you could not say who did you say

    well if you did the computer voice would just ignore you

    I tell you ever time this mob ring me I will just hang up

    one cannot say:” excuse me who did you say”

  24. Sean Tisme@265

    WA Coalition has posted a $240 Million Dollar surplus.

    See this is how it’s done folks

    Yep just jack up taxes, ie land tax, slash services and bobs your uncle right?
    Meanwhile there’s the $30b debt…

  25. silmaj@258

    Henry@244 I pay both. Paying no tax is not good when you go to see the bank manager. Trying to defraud the tax office is not worth the risk. The truth is that in this economic climate the tax payed is reduced due to lack of business done. As for bullshitting what would be the point.

    It is not illegal to pay earnings as income tax FFS.
    What is the turnover of your business and profit?

  26. davidwh

    What did the Greens poll in Forde back in 2010?

    Say 10% or more 😀

    4% what a massacre, I will balance on election night, the disappointment of a Monkey win will be offset by the Full Mooners 🙂

  27. don’t rekon this man agrees with us e lefty

    ==================================Carlton ‏@MikeCarlton01 12m
    Watched Peter Beattie @ABC730. He, Bob Carr and Steve Bracks were the gun media performers of their day. So will Bracks also return ?

    Retweeted by Jan Mahyuddin

  28. Centre@280

    Henry

    Labor are losing.

    I’m glad they polled the way they did, it may provide a greater insight in the other marginals where Beattie is not contesting.

    Labor are slightly behind in the polls centre, 51-49, did you miss that? Don’t pay too much attention to internals at this point, they are agenda driven.

  29. ‏@MikeCarlton01 4m
    @GrogsGamut @attardmon More photo-shopped Nazi uniforms, I suppose. It’s the new News Corpse meme.

    Retweeted by that dude you kn

  30. [Do you think it is fair to criticise Gillard for announcing East Timor without having an agreement?]

    This has nothing to do with gender.

  31. “Am I worried about Peter Beattie? Of course not but I bet Kevin Rudd is”
    Abbott (or more likely his writers) have some wit and well deserved for the white-anting bastard.

  32. Labor would bring back Hawke if they could get him off the nest… labor would prop up Whitlam like a scene from weekend at bernies if the thought it help.

  33. Fantastic, Mike Carlton has picked up the NewsCorspe meme we have been pushing for a few years. Soon it will be the accepted nickname for this bullying outfit.

    [@MikeCarlton01: @GrogsGamut @attardmon More photo-shopped Nazi uniforms, I suppose. It’s the new News Corpse meme.]

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