Highlights of day two

A surprisingly soft poll result for Kevin Rudd in his Brisbane seat of Griffith, trouble for both parties with candidates in marginal New South Wales seats, and some movement from the bookmakers.

With 31 days left to go:

• ReachTEL has published the results of an automated phone poll of 702 respondents in Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith, and it points to a 4% swing to the Liberal National Party – enough to pare back his margin to 4.5%, and raise doubts about Labor’s prospects in Liberal National Party marginals. The primary votes from the poll are 45.6% for Kevin Rudd, 41.0% for LNP candidate Bill Glasson and 8.0% for the Greens.

• Jaymes Diaz, the Liberal candidate for the crucial western Sydney seat of Greenway, has been a big hit on social media over the past day or two, and not in a good way. Quizzed by a Ten Network reporter about the content of his party’s six-point plan to “stop the boats”, Diaz could manage only one, offering only the clumsiest of platitudes in place of the other five. He was eventually put out of his misery when a minder intervened to bring the interview to a close. Heath Aston of Fairfax offers some interesting background on the circumstances behind his endorsement.

• Also earning raspberries has been David Bradbury, Labor’s member for the equally important western suburbs seat of Lindsay, who queried a radio interviewer about being a Liberal Party member and ominously asked him to reveal what his surname was.

• Labor appears to be in a muddle over who it will run in Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. Former Gosford deputy mayor Trevor Drake emerged as the only nominee for preselection a month ago, but the party executive has declined to ratify his endorsement. However, Kevin Rudd has been rebuffed in his approach to one his youthful senior advisers from his first tenure as prime minister, current Coles executive Andrew Charlton, who says he is not available due to family reasons. Ean Higgins of The Australian reports the party had been alerted to a finding by Gosford council’s conduct committee that Drake had failed to disclose interests when council considered development applications from a firm for which he acted as a solicitor, although it cleared him of breaching its code of conduct. Higgins also reports concern over “presentational difficulties” relating to Drake’s status as a former Liberal Party member, and the fact that he doesn’t live in the electorate.

• Two agencies have moved their odds slightly in the Coalition’s favour in the wake of Monday’s poll results. Tom Waterhouse has the Coalition paying $1.24, down from $1.27, with Labor out from $3.50 to $4, while Centrebet has the Coalition in from $1.27 to $1.25 and Labor out from $3.60 to $4.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,660 comments on “Highlights of day two”

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  1. [– funniest and most undignified parliamentary moment from a party leader in decades.]

    Surpassed only by Fraser’s trouserless effort in the US. Unfortunately there’s no video to remind us of that occasion.

  2. From Alan Corbett in today’s Crikey:

    ‘The article says: “It’s not too hard to convince the AEC you should be registered; an organisation must present the signatures of a minimum of 500 members who are listed on the electoral roll, plus a $500 application fee.”

    Only partially correct. Signatures are no longer required. What’s required these days is the name, address and contact details of at least 500 members, plus a robust constitution, other paperwork and the money. The AEC contacts a sample of the members to ensure they are indeed members. Believe me, it’s not as easy as it is implied in the article to get a new political party registered.’

  3. Player One@1181

    Your trolling, economic ignorance and lack of comprehension.

    Bowen has said the recent economic statement included allowance for all election promises.

    Carbon pricing has not been backed down on (add lying to your other attributes), the ETS will just be brought forward by 12 months.


    You really are a laugh sometimes, bemused!

    If a thief keeps rigorous accounts, does that make them any less of a thief?

    Exactly how many billions is it that have been reserved for election promises? At a time when the budget has currently blown out by $33 billion?.

    And by the way – I just found this figure – it is estimated that the back down on carbon pricing alone will cost up to $5 billion.

    And this is your “economic conservative” hero, Kevin Rudd?

    When it comes to being willing to spend other people’s money on his own ambition, Rudd makes Abbott looks like a miser!

    You are seriously clueless on economics aren’t you?

    Recessions are caused by insufficient demand in the economy, not govt debt. When consumers are saving rather than spending and when business is not investing enough, it is up to government to step up to the plate to prevent an economic contraction.

    And guess what? That means they run deficits. Shock, horror.

    In time as the economy recovers and tax revenues grow again the govt can start recording surpluses.

    That is conventional economic thinking.

    You obviously prefer the ‘austerity’ approach where the govt cuts back to try to balance the budget, then business and households cut back making the govts revenue problem even worse. And the economy spirals down. Good luck with that. We know where it led in the 1930s.

  4. [Abbott has already he stated he will sell Medibank….more asset sales disguised as economic management]

    Selling Medibank Private is a good idea.

    Why should government be running a Private Health Insurance company?

    There is plenty of competition out there it’s time for Medibank Private to be privatised

  5. [Rosemour or Less
    Posted Wednesday, August 7, 2013 at 8:24 pm | Permalink
    ‘I am no Rudd-lover, but I can see him for what he is. The guy is extremely tricky and is to be underestimated at one’s peril.’

    I really hope you’re right. I don’t see it myself.]

    You need to look harder Rosemour – and your defeatist attitude so early in the campaign is becoming really tedious. I’d hate to go to the football with you. Three early goals to the other side and you’d be tossing in the towel halfway through the first quarter. You need to toughen up a bit mentally mate.

  6. New2this
    [Rudd wont do an interview with Hadley, Jones or Smith on 2GB so dont say he will appear anywhere. Thats crap.]

    Well, let’s hope he doesn’t go on on Jones if tonight on Sky is any guide. He won’t get a word in and he’ll be badgered with a hundred gotchas that Jones won’t let him answer.

  8. The ALP should point out that the NATS dont actually support Abbott’s parental leave policy.

    Coalition disunity. The spectre of an unstable minority govt. The Libs relying on uncertain Nat support. it haunts Abbott on the campaign trail!

  11. [That’s essentially how I perceived the interview except Rudd’s performance was more than okay and he managed to cut through despite the constant interruptions by Leigh Sales. You can ask the tough questions but she was only after a “gotcha” rather than eliciting answers to inform any debate.]

    Absolute top marks to Rudd. Not only did he get his message out, despite the noise from Leigh, but he made not just her but the people who write her questions look pointless and stupid.

  12. Death penalty could only apply to Federal offences and no one has ever been sentenced to death for a Federal offence in Oz history

  13. Phew, the stench of trolls hanging over PB is heavy tonight.

    Sales shot her bolt long ago, I missed KRudd’s grilling? but am sure it took the same path as the other aggressive suchness from the mad mother of one.

    I think alias@1155 says it for me.

    As for others

    “DEAD AS A DOORNAIL”

    get a life, why not dead as a dodo or some other boring old fart hat statement?

  14. [The article says: “It’s not too hard to convince the AEC you should be registered; an organisation must present the signatures of a minimum of 500 members who are listed on the electoral roll, plus a $500 application fee.]

    So you just need 499 other dead beats to support you cause. Oh yes, they’re out there all right it’s just that they can’t be fucked to organise themselves. What they need is an inspirational leader like yourself to get them up and marching. Can’t really see it happening though.

  16. I think the real key to the Leigh Sales interview is to remember back when Kerry O’Brien prompted Rudd to give his now famous spiel about “It’s OK for you in 730-land..” I don’t remember the full quote but it was in the context of the failed Copenhagan talks, and the grab was replayed endlessly.

    Leigh Sales badly wants that kind of moment with Rudd. She has had a couple with Abbott already (the almost indescribly awful Abbott effort when he started blathering on about how the real truth is written down etc) – but feels she’ll only begin to enter Kerry O’Brien’s league if she has one of those moments with Rudd.

    Tonight, Rudd simply treated Leigh Sales with the sort of contempt her petulant, unintelligent line of questioning deserved.

    She asked a couple of obvious questions (the one about the slogan “a new way”, for intance) but let herself down badly with her badgering, interrupting and general poor manners. Kerry O’Brien was capable of interrupting where necessary, but he did so with a certain panache, a certain cheeky grin.

    Leigh Sales has a long way to go.

  18. I posted earlier that the C7 (Sydney) was pushing its Ch7/Facebook online debate next Sunday night. Rudd has accepted, Abbott has not. Ch7 is clearly unhappy with Abbott – they will doubtless be pushing this all week.

    Also, the shockjocks are unhappy with Abbott’s lack of ‘punch’.

    There were two Liberal ads during a new Ch7 show from 7:30. The first was anti-Rudd; the second Abbott and the pamphlet. Abbott was so calm he looked and sounded as if he were on Valium.

  19. Hi Pegasus.

    You posted a link about John Mendoza and his report on Mental Health issues. Have you checked it out?

    Obviously not intended to get a wide circulation as it is priced way too high. Over $350.00 IIRC.

    Do you have any link with Mendoza?

  21. alias@1261 – Leigh Sales has a long way to go.

    Agree, I can’t watch her anymore, the thought “over achiever” keeps springing to mind.

  23. [Rudd will be trying to get his mug and message on TV as often as he can. Only problem is there is only one of him, time is running out so he has to push himself. This is why I don’t understand why they didn’t go for the later election.]

    I think the timing of the interest rate cut was a big factor and potential game changer – they knew there was one coming early August but could not guarantee one in
    Sept say if he went in October. otherwise agree later was my preference but so far in I think the campaign is going strongly with the focus squarely on the economy which is where it will be for the next 4 weeks this is exactly what the ALP wanted the election to be about it the economy stupid and stupid gaffes today like tax cuts when the budget is in deficit demonstrate Abbotts Economic illiteracy – thanks Peter Costello don’t take my word for it. coupled with scare campaigns on the GST and austerity programmes. Keating was the master at this ofcourse and his finger prints are all over the strategy on Murdoch – “the only way to deal with murdoch is to be a bigger bastard than him”.

  24. [I posted earlier that the C7 (Sydney) was pushing its Ch7/Facebook online debate next Sunday night.]

    What is the Facebook page for this, please?

  26. mikehilliard,

    My question still hangs. Is this Leigh Sales the “journalist” or Leigh Sales the puppet of an ABC management deeply corrupted by Howard?

  27. Already I can’t remember anything much that was said during Leigh’s interview. This may, admittedly, be due to senility, but my overriding impression is that there was a lot of noise, signifying nothing. Ultimately unmemorable and therefore a waste of valuable air time. Leigh needs to find a more productive technique.

  29. I hope when Abbott wins he immediately announces a Royal Inquiry into Union corruption.

    The stuff that has been going on in NSW is inexcusable and it’s time we get to the bottom of it at a national level.

  30. So ami I right that Abott wants National Press Club debate on Sunday with questions from journos, whilst Rudd wants Channel 7 debate on Sunday night with Facebook questions from punters.?

  31. [Leigh Sales badly wants that kind of moment with Rudd. She has had a couple with Abbott already (the almost indescribly awful Abbott effort when he started blathering on about how the real truth is written down etc) – but feels she’ll only begin to enter Kerry O’Brien’s league if she has one of those moments with Rudd.]

    No the gospel truth and I aint no tech head moments were both with Kerry O’Brien. Sales does not have the ability of O’Brien amply demonstrated tonight by her asking a question and barely letting Rudd answer before interuppting it was amateurish and she was very nervous aswell which did not assist in her poise in conducting the interview.

  33. Is anyone aware of the ALps budget situ for ads? I dont tend to watch commerical tv (unless the Ashes are on), so I rarely can tell. Im also assuming VIC isnt the highest priority.

  35. cud chewer
    [… but he made not just her but the people who write her questions look pointless and stupid.]
    Absolutely! Oh for the days when Kerry O’Brien was the host of the 7.30 Report.

  38. Isnt it gresat to live in a country where some toxic old US billionaire – whose organisation is known to illegally tap the phone of dead teenagers – owns 70% of our print media.

    Go Straya!

    Where’s a ACCC when you actually need them?

  39. In my corner of the electorate of Chisholm, Liberals are very organised…corflutes up, countless addressed letter drops and letterboxing…no Labor corflutes and fewer letters, etc.

    However Anna Burke pipped the Liberals by one day with her postal application letters.

  40. [ You are seriously clueless on economics aren’t you? ]

    Whereas you are just a seriously offensive poster on all subjects, bemused – and a serial offender to boot.

    Instead of countering argument with argument, you simply resort to abuse – as you always do.

    I ws simply pointing out that your boy Rudd is anything but the “economic conservative” he once claimed himself to be.

    Like everything else Rudd has ever claimed, it turns out he is quite willing to sacrifice this as well.

  41. I stand corrected Spectator. So Kerry O’Brien did the gospel truth interview.

    Well then, Leigh Sales has even further to go than I had imagined. Somehow she doesn’t seem to have the ability to let those big set-piece interviews “breathe” the way O’Brien did so exquisitely. Often, the interviewee would relax, begin to enjoy herself and then, wham, would make a slight verbal mis-step and O’Brien would pounce like Mohammad Ali.

  42. [Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 9m
    @Bowenchris can anyone tell me why Liberal candidates are kept under wraps? Seriously.]

  43. Jeez im getting sick of grumpy middle aged noalition blokes on the telly.

    Grumpy, spiteful, not making the slightest lick of sense on any topic, speaking exclusively in 3 word cliches, and getting zero scutiny from the useless bunch of plonkers pretending to be our media.

    Welcome to Australian politics!

  44. @Sean/1204

    Yes, I be you would sell Centerlink too, like you did with Job Services Australia.

    We know how that went.

    Efficiency on top of Efficiency (i.e. stuffed).

  46. [New2This
    Posted Wednesday, August 7, 2013 at 8:08 pm | Permalink

    What NBN? It hasn’t been worked of for the last ten weeks.]

    Utter bullshite! Just another Great Big Liberal LIE!

    Mine’s just been turned on in the last few days (my letter telling me so arrived yesterday), as had most of the city area in which I live! The VHS-BB of another PBer in a different part of the same area had hers turned on not long ago – a week, maybe 2 – and also reported it on PB.

    So you’ve been exposed as a liar by 2 different PBers in a a hellava lot shorter time that that idiotic & just plain wrong “Not worked on for 10 weeks” you thought you’d get away with!

    Try not to make such an idiot of yourself!

  47. [I posted earlier that the C7 (Sydney) was pushing its Ch7/Facebook online debate next Sunday night.

    What is the Facebook page for this, please?]

    Unfortunately I know nothing of Facebook. However there is an article

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/18395313/rudd-agrees-to-channel-7-facebook-debate-with-mark-riley/

    titled “Rudd agrees to 7News-Facebook Live” . That article contains a hot link to the Ch7 news Facebook page.

    Sorry I can’t help any more but ask any young person!

  49. Well it appears that Leighs effort on 7.30 has only resulted in the grab of PMKR commenting on former PMJG and will he ask her to assist with campaigning.

    The grab they show of PMKR is of him acknowledging/responding and very committed to the wonderful things PMJG achieved

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