Highlights of day two

A surprisingly soft poll result for Kevin Rudd in his Brisbane seat of Griffith, trouble for both parties with candidates in marginal New South Wales seats, and some movement from the bookmakers.

With 31 days left to go:

• ReachTEL has published the results of an automated phone poll of 702 respondents in Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith, and it points to a 4% swing to the Liberal National Party – enough to pare back his margin to 4.5%, and raise doubts about Labor’s prospects in Liberal National Party marginals. The primary votes from the poll are 45.6% for Kevin Rudd, 41.0% for LNP candidate Bill Glasson and 8.0% for the Greens.

• Jaymes Diaz, the Liberal candidate for the crucial western Sydney seat of Greenway, has been a big hit on social media over the past day or two, and not in a good way. Quizzed by a Ten Network reporter about the content of his party’s six-point plan to “stop the boats”, Diaz could manage only one, offering only the clumsiest of platitudes in place of the other five. He was eventually put out of his misery when a minder intervened to bring the interview to a close. Heath Aston of Fairfax offers some interesting background on the circumstances behind his endorsement.

• Also earning raspberries has been David Bradbury, Labor’s member for the equally important western suburbs seat of Lindsay, who queried a radio interviewer about being a Liberal Party member and ominously asked him to reveal what his surname was.

• Labor appears to be in a muddle over who it will run in Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. Former Gosford deputy mayor Trevor Drake emerged as the only nominee for preselection a month ago, but the party executive has declined to ratify his endorsement. However, Kevin Rudd has been rebuffed in his approach to one his youthful senior advisers from his first tenure as prime minister, current Coles executive Andrew Charlton, who says he is not available due to family reasons. Ean Higgins of The Australian reports the party had been alerted to a finding by Gosford council’s conduct committee that Drake had failed to disclose interests when council considered development applications from a firm for which he acted as a solicitor, although it cleared him of breaching its code of conduct. Higgins also reports concern over “presentational difficulties” relating to Drake’s status as a former Liberal Party member, and the fact that he doesn’t live in the electorate.

• Two agencies have moved their odds slightly in the Coalition’s favour in the wake of Monday’s poll results. Tom Waterhouse has the Coalition paying $1.24, down from $1.27, with Labor out from $3.50 to $4, while Centrebet has the Coalition in from $1.27 to $1.25 and Labor out from $3.60 to $4.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,660 comments on “Highlights of day two”

Comments Page 26 of 34
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  3. [Well then, Leigh Sales has even further to go than I had imagined. Somehow she doesn’t seem to have the ability to let those big set-piece interviews “breathe” the way O’Brien did so exquisitely. Often, the interviewee would relax, begin to enjoy herself and then, wham, would make a slight verbal mis-step and O’Brien would pounce like Mohammad Ali.]

    and that is the art of a good interviewer ie letting the subject talk but asking very clever pointed questions. the scatter gun line of questioning adopted by sales comes across haphazard and unprofessional with no wider strategic purpose in mind.

  4. ‘Leigh Sales is not an idiot’

    Maybe not, but she doesn’t have the intelligence to be anything like a competent interviewer.

  5. I hope when Abbott wins he immediately announces a Royal Inquiry into Union corruption.

    I assume you mean Royal Commission. You only call these when you know the result in advance. . Even so, I’m sure Abbott will call one, with terms of reference narrow enough to avoid any of the Lib’s business mates being caught. If union figures are corrupt, you can be sure it’s not just amongst themselves. As with the ICAC findings in NSW, there are sure to be names from the big end of town involved, including some Coalition donors. Be careful what you wish for, it could bit the Libs in their (collective) bum. Remember Costigan.

  8. Wow at the usual Conservatives on here as well as a couple of Labor supporters thinking that because of a slight drop in the polls and an equally predictable move in the betting following it, that this election is somehow conclusively over. It is far from that. The drop in the polls was entirely predictable, even I picked it, and my record at picking poll movements is mixed at best. The caravan has moved on since the economic statement. We know Abbott is not liked, so seeing more of him probably plays well for Labor. Rudd has been solid and the Coalition are getting themselves tangled on policy.

    I won’t be at all surprised if weekend polling edges back to the vicinity of 50-50.

  9. zoidlord,

    Please remind me why the government should be running a private health insurance company.

    It would have made sense decades ago before Private Health insurance could stand on it’s own 2 feet, but here in 2013, it should be privatised.

  11. Rudd should accept the NPC debate. It’s the usual place and time. He needs debates, but he won’t get any if he keeps wanting them on his terms.

  12. If I was setting the bookies odds this would be my take:

    1/. T. Abbott – has been an MP for years but always controversial & regarded as an idiot, generally not trusted by the average person on the street, no good at anything other than being an opposition attack dog, lost election to a rank amateur who outsmarted him.

    2/. K. Rudd – won the election against the 2nd longest serving PM in Australia’s history.

    Simple really.

  13. Pegasus@1232

    Bemused,

    No link with Mendoza.

    Different price options are available….
    http://connetica.com.au/ohd-landing-page …scroll down to see purchase info.

    I have mixed feelings about him.

    He is very gung ho about de-institutionalisation which I believe has gone too far and there are no longer sufficient facilities for acutely ill people and many of the chronically ill are now housed in prisons.

    Interestingly he mentioned the Richmond Report in his interview. I believe some of those who worked on that now repudiate it’s excessive belief in de-institutionalisation.

  14. @Sean/1259

    Because we need one just incase the private sector collapse ?

    Health, Education, Communication should have at least one provider done via Goverment.

    The rest can be private.

    It’s called not putting all your eggs in one basket.

  16. matt31: I disagree; now that the election has been called, the public realise that they finally have the chance to get rid of this miserable government once and for all. And the Coalition has had the better of the campaign so far.

  17. [This little black duck
    Posted Wednesday, August 7, 2013 at 9:05 pm | Permalink
    Miranda,

    Touch me, touch me … OOOHHH!]

    Now come on TLBD. I agree Miranda is a bit of a turn on when she talks dirty, but I think William might have a rule against blog sex. 😆

  19. Pegasus@1239

    In my corner of the electorate of Chisholm, Liberals are very organised…corflutes up, countless addressed letter drops and letterboxing…no Labor corflutes and fewer letters, etc.

    However Anna Burke pipped the Liberals by one day with her postal application letters.

    Yes, the Libs are cashed up.
    But their membership is worse than ALP membership.

    All their letterbox drops are commercially done and I regret to say, a lot of the ALP’s are too.

  22. New2This
    Posted Wednesday, August 7, 2013 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

    Go fck yourself Ozpol

    This is the sort of commentary that you should take down William.

  24. mikehilliard

    [Go fck yourself Ozpol

    This is the sort of commentary that you should take down William.]
    No way . Leave it as an example of what “we” are up against.

  28. [This is the sort of commentary that you should take down William.]

    Arguably, but when a commenter throws around terms like “liar”, “idiot”, and “utter bullshite”, their entitlement to my protection diminishes.

  32. Encouraging early signs that the ALPs new AS policy is having the desired effect….

    @amworldtodaypm: Tony Burke confirms “widespread examples..of people asking for money back from people smugglers.” in Indonesia http://t.co/1GY1zAD3XQ

  33. [ William needs to add an unhingement chart ]

    I believe he tried an UnhingementTrack … but your score kept going off the scale.

  35. One of the great things about an election campaign is that you get to see all the pollies, not just the few they trot out to spin BS most of the time. This increased exposure inevitably leads to a more accurate idea of just how bad the dregs are who run our country.

    Dio’s iDIOt of the day goes to Jaymes Diaz who manages to show he is a pitifully superficial fool.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/diaz-and-confused-candidate-misses-the-points-20130806-2rb1v.html

    This may become a daily segment.

  36. Player One@1240

    You are seriously clueless on economics aren’t you?


    Whereas you are just a seriously offensive poster on all subjects, bemused – and a serial offender to boot.

    Instead of countering argument with argument, you simply resort to abuse – as you always do.

    I ws simply pointing out that your boy Rudd is anything but the “economic conservative” he once claimed himself to be.

    Like everything else Rudd has ever claimed, it turns out he is quite willing to sacrifice this as well.

    Thank you for confirming I have offended you, you precious petal. HTFU!

    I don’t mind posters I disagree with like Pegasus for instance and even Tisme as they don’t make any pretence about their position. You are in a different category altogether.

    You clearly put your own construction on ‘economic conservative’ and it is a relic of the past.

    I suggest you check a dictionary. I won’t go through all the shades of meaning listed but they are all variations on something like this: “disposed to preserve existing conditions, institutions, etc., or to restore traditional ones, and to limit change.”

    Rudd, in his economic attitudes, is consistent with this as he is accepting the best advice of existing institutions such as Treasury and the RBA, and acting to preserve our economy from contraction and recession.

    OTOH, your hero Tone would be a radical wrecker like all advocates of austerity.

  37. Paul Murray and the Sky talking heads are now pushing for a NPC debate because it would be far more appropriate than a Ch 7 one run by Facebook.

    Clever politics by Rudd on this one. Hook, line and sinker.

  39. God. The tone has diminished rapidly since I last looked in.

    That’s the Lib trolls for you.

    Can’t keep away, can’t be nice, can’t even offer a decent comment.

    Whatever, we will maintain a dignified approach.

  40. One W Bowe said, some time ago, that one definition of a troll is that it complains to Management.

    Not entirely accurate, in my opinion, but pretty close.

    Perhaps we could have a “Trolls v Whingers” debate here? (Perhaps not).

  41. Bemused
    [He is very gung ho about de-institutionalisation which I believe has gone too far and there are no longer sufficient facilities for acutely ill people and many of the chronically ill are now housed in prisons.]
    Agree completely…..homelessness, prison, suicide…the tragic endpoint for so many

    ———————————
    Crikey recently looked at the mental health policies of Labor, the Coalition and the Greens and what they are promising in terms of mental health services :
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/05/13/promisewatch-2013-mental-health-services-policy/

  43. Rossmore – dont need that to tell it’s working. When was the last time we saw Scott Morrison’s mug on a prominent news spot?

  44. HahaHa couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke.

    It’s all falling to pieces for SeweRoo as the pondscum settles.

    [Murdoch and his family have long been safe from the tabloids by virtue of owning them and, as well, of being able to put everyone else at risk. Now, partly because of Murdoch, tabloidism is everywhere, and Murdoch himself is natural grist for the mill.]

    http://www.courier-journal.com/usatoday/article/2621141

  46. @New2This/1275

    Yes, Howard new all about Asbestos, it’s in the history books.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/6/4/politics/asbestos-panic-holds-perils-abbott

    “Telstra’s asbestos problem — yes, despite what you’ll read in many media outlets, it’s nothing to do with NBN infrastructure — is a legacy problem many decades in the making, as the excellent Richard Chirgwin explains in Crikey today. Indeed, as Mark Kenny and Heath Aston have already noted in Fairfax, it was a Howard government minister, one Tony Abbott, who stymied Telstra’s plans to establish compensation arrangements for its employees.”

  48. This little black duck
    Posted Wednesday, August 7, 2013 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    One W Bowe said, some time ago, that one definition of a troll is that it complains to Management

    I just think a certain level of civility is a good thing but accept being put back in my box.

  50. [Perth has recorded its warmest August night since records were taken in 1897.

    The minimum temperature got down to 17.1 degrees.

    The previous warmest August night was on August 7, 2006 when it was 17 degrees.

    The average August minimum temperature is 8.1 degrees. ]

    Even down here it was pretty mild last night.

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