A quick replay of yesterday’s polling:
• Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.
• Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.
• BludgerTrack, which was formerly updated weekly but will now be brought up to date whenever substantial new data arrives, records no change on two-party preferred from the addition of the two new polls, although the Greens are up on the primary vote at the expense of Labor. However, there’s a fair bit of movement on the state seat projections, with Labor up one in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania and down one in Queensland for a net gain of two seats. That leaves two state-level projections at which one might well look askance: a finding of no gains for Labor in Queensland, against three gains for them in Western Australia. Whereas poll results in the weeks after the Rudd takeover had Labor outperforming the national result in Queensland as often as not, I now have five data points over the past fortnight all of which have them below. And while three gains in Western Australia certainly seems hard to credit (for one thing, the model is not adequately accounting for Labor losing the Alannah MacTiernan dividend from 2010 in Canning, which at present is rated a probable Labor gain), all five data points from the past fortnight show Labor improving on the 2010 result – a pretty solid result given how noisy small-sample state-level data tends to be.
• As far as I can tell, Labor and Liberal each had one television ad in business yesterday, and they read from much the same tactical script: both are positive, showcase the leader, and appear tailored to launching the parties’ rather nebulous campaign slogans. Kevin Rudd speaks to us of “a new way”, Opposition Leader style, while the actual Opposition Leader makes like Luke Skywalker and offers us “new hope”. The latter effort is a fairly obvious exercise in image softening, but what most stands out for me, having grown accustomed over the years to “face of Australia” advertising being served with a thick layer of political correctness on top (Qantas being an acknowledged leader in the field), is that all but a very small handful of the 50 or so faces in the ad are white.
UPDATE: ReachTEL has published the results of an automated phone poll of 702 respondents in Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith, and it points to a 4% swing to the Liberal National Party paring his margin back to 4.5%. The primary votes from the poll are 45.6% for Kevin Rudd, 41.0% for LNP candidate Bill Glasson and 8.0% for the Greens.
[Putting your Donk in the Plonk is not corruption]
Depends. Was it a pre- or post-bonk donk in the plonk?
Just checking… one of the big items of news here is the closure of a couple of dozen US embassies…
Is it getting much mileage in Oz?
What would the ACTU know about how to run a business?
Bugger all.
[How about we investigate LNP QLD Corruption?
Putting your Donk in the Plonk is not corruption]
Rorting your travel expenses is.
“Ethics Committee chairman and Redlands LNP MP Peter Dowling … is also accused of taking advantage of parliamentary travel trips to meet his mistress in locations including Perth and New Zealand. The allegations are made in a letter from Mr Dowling’s former lover to Speaker Fiona Simpson.”
bw
the US have just instructed all US citizens to evacuate Yemen, so an end of Ramadan event posible
[What would the ACTU know about how to run a business?]
They certainly know how to shut down a business.
ACTU would rather you be unemployed than having cut backs to your overtime
I reckon this election is going to be mighty tight! A few seats either way.
If they’d gone later, then I’d say comfortable ALP victory but because the stupid idiots in the party got their way, it really could go either way. Might have to wait for the debates and the focus to go on Abbott a bit more
[I reckon this election is going to be mighty tight! A few seats either way. ]
I think it’s best to wait until the weekend’s results of polling after voters have had a week of the reality of an election date post leadership change.
@Sean/@CC
And you guys know how to shut everyone else up by wasting Parliament time with stupid laws for blocking people accessing fair rights.
[eleanor bloom @eleanorbloom 23m
.@vanOnselenP being cheeky & asking Hunt ‘Why do you support an ETS? Oh wait'(changes papers) ‘those were my questions for Malcolm Turnbull’]
Sometimes I wish I still had Sky.
Marrickville Mauler
If you missed it I linked this for Boerwar. It shows that when it came to the “natives” in Australasia the pomgolians very much did not have it all their own way. Watch the story from 29:23 . What happened was repeated many times. Out numbered 6-1 who won ?
[It was here that modern trench warfare was invented..]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0sPMhqz-cc
[I reckon this election is going to be mighty tight! A few seats either way. ]
86 Seats to the Coalition is not tight
Settlement of Western Australia was a military project in which naval officers (Stirling, Currie, Roe, Fremantle) had leading roles initially supported by the 63rd Regiment. This was the usual pattern during the period of settlement.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_British_Army_regiments_that_served_in_Australia_between_1810_and_1870
[Ultimately, between 1810 and 1870 a total of 24 British Army infantry regiments served in Australia, along with detachments of the Royal Engineers and the Royal Artillery……They were not, however, the last British troops to leave Australia. The Royal Marines remained in Australia until 1913, serving on the ships of the Royal Navy’s Australia Squadron, which was based in Sydney until the Royal Australian Navy was strong enough to take full responsibility for Australian waters.
While deployed, British Army regiments undertook a variety of duties. This included guarding convict settlements, hunting down bushrangers, suppressing armed resistance by Indigenous Australians, providing security on the goldfields, assisting local police to maintain public order, undertaking ceremonial duties and developing the nation’s military defences.]
[ACTU would rather you be unemployed than having cut backs to your overtime]
Now you’re being fucking ridiculous.
[1003
Compact Crank
What would the ACTU know about how to run a business?
Bugger all.]
What would the IPA/LNP now about running a skill-rich, high-productivity, modern, outward-looking, pro-competitive economy? Absolutely nothing.
Rudd had to counter the Murdoch thing on day one. I thought it looked terrible but it had to be done. They need to lay off it now and focus on the public. More specifically what the public want
BoerWar
Not sure if you saw this book review last weekend, but I found it a fascinating comment on the way that the word “war” is only now becoming accepted as a description of what occurred when the British wrongly applied the legal doctrine of Terra Nullius and proceeded to oversee the most horrific destruction of a culture imaginable.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/arts/review/the-war-we-waged-on-our-own-soil/story-fn9n8gph-1226689621728
[Now you’re being fucking ridiculous.]
Whereas before?
One key paragraph:
Reynolds’s big breakthrough in this matchless new work is to settle once and for all the question of what it was that occurred. It was, purely and simply, war. It was Australia’s Great War, the War at Home, an event that had profound consequences for the entire continent, exponentially more so than any of the overseas conflicts that we generally look at to define our national identity.
@Briefly/1015
They would rather ‘outsource’ high tech, modern economy.
I know this is out of left field, but does anyone know where Ashby v Slipper is up to? I’d love an explosive revelation to surface connecting M Brough, C Pyne and “No Specific Knowledge” Abbott to the whole sordid business in the next few weeks but am I in fantasyland?
[Now you’re being fucking ridiculous.]
I’d love you to give 1 example.. just 1… where the ACTU has recommended a reduction in wages or conditions to keep someones job.
Just 1 example will do. The ACTU and other unions only do wage increases, they’d rather a business shut down than renogitiating workplace agreements
Boerwar 975
On this we are agreed. A war does not have to be declared to be a war. Nor does it have to be global in scale to count. I doubt Genghis Khan declared war when he invaded Russia. It was still a war.
From a few histories I have read, I think you could count the actions of groups like the Qld Colonial Mounted Police against Aborigines in Qld as a war.
briefly
‘The Royal Marines remained in Australia until 1913, serving on the ships of the Royal Navy’s Australia Squadron, which was based in Sydney until the Royal Australian Navy was strong enough to take full responsibility for Australian waters.’
When will that be?
smallvox
Awaiting the decision of the appeal panel in the Federal Court – may or may not come before the election.
[1020
zoidlord
@Briefly/1015
They would rather ‘outsource’ high tech, modern economy.]
z, they are a wholly-owned subsidiary of the oligarchs that run big business in this economy. 🙂
Spur
[If they’d gone later, then I’d say comfortable ALP victory but because the stupid idiots in the party got their way, it really could go either way.]
exactly.
Rinehart loses case against journos
http://www.smh.com.au/national/rinehart-loses-bid-to-see-journo-material-20130806-2rdag.html
CTar – I was not in Vietnam.
@Sean/1022
So you recommending that ACTU to do Gina’s $2 dollar a day?
Hey William
I liked your gig with Fran Kelly – love that WA accent 🙂
She said a regular slot, when is the next one?
The RM’s -FMD.
alias
Thanks for the link. I would have liked the review to refer to the culture wars, why Windschuttle never went to the mainland – as he had promised – to pursue his history revisions, the activities of the white arm banders, and Howard’s determined and decade long intervention in Australian history.
IMHO, Howard and Windschuttle did our history a favour – they forced historians to be more rigorous about the Indigenous War.
[@Sean/1022
So you recommending that ACTU to do Gina’s $2 dollar a day?]
No I’m saying the ACTU should be willing to reduce wages and conditions to save someone from the unemployment line.
Would people rather a job or no job, thats the option in a lot of circumstances. Car industry is a good example.
S
‘Qld Colonial Mounted Police against Aborigines in Qld as a war.’
Given that a very large proportion of the killing may well have been done by other Indigenous people, would it have been a civil war?
dave – I was a bit anxuiarray to the Falklands thing.
Not pleasant.
I don’t think I’ll be making a habit of appearing on RN Breakfast, Sprocket. If there is indeed such a thing as a WA accent, I don’t want one.
@Sean/1034
Why should normal people reduce their wages if the 150 MPs plus state MP’s don’t reduce theirs?
Back to politics, I agree that it was great for Rudd to raise the Murdoch/Abbott/Foxtell connection. Many good reasons. First it rings true – it is not just political point scoring. Murdoch’s financial motivation is large and obvious, as is his bias.
Second, it puts the pressure on Murdoch and Abbott. Abbott either has to deny the link (impossible with credibility) or disown the help. Murdoch has to either tone it down (pardon the pun) or if he keeps going everything his lieutenants produce is no longer seen as journalism but propaganda. The arrogance of a foreign millionaire trying to force his will onto a national election is exposed. The link to a man who ignores the law and hacks murder victim’s phones will damage Tony Abbott.
[ST
‘Putting your Donk in the Plonk is not corruption’
OTOH, it is a significant improvement on some of the Coalition policy making processes.]
Definite points to BW there. Although it was vs ST…..
[1027
sprocket_
Spur
If they’d gone later, then I’d say comfortable ALP victory but because the stupid idiots in the party got their way, it really could go either way.]
The biggest data point in the period leading up to the election will be the release of the National Accounts for the June Quarter, due on 4 September – three days before polling. It is likely they will show growth in the economy to be only barely positive, or with no growth at all.
If data show further falls in capital investment through April-June (there was significant fall in the March quarter), then GDP will likely come in with a negative result for the quarter. This would be show-stopper.
This election has to be fought on the question of how we should respond to economic deceleration – will we try to manage this to avoid big job losses, or will we have an LNP-led recession?
@confessions
Agree, the polling over the weekend will give the strongest indication yet as to where this is going. I do not think this is all over though as some seem to be suggesting. The Coalition are the favourites, yes. But the dip in the polls late last week was to be expected and I believe can be recovered fairly quickly. Would not overly surprise me to see polls in the vicinity of 50-50 early next week.
A question for any keen historical readers – I saw the link to Ham’s book on the Vietnam War. I have avoided reading much on that or the Arab Israeli Wars. I have also found it impossible to find a good thorough unbiased account of the latter. there is no equivalent to say, Anthony Beevoir.
So.a question – is there a good single volume history of the whole Vietnam War that people would recommend? Same question for the Arab Israeli Wars, either collectively or separately?
[A little bit of toilet humour:
A luxury toilet controlled by a smartphone app is vulnerable to attack, according to security experts.]
That would be ooopsy then?? LoL!
A foreign media mogul, head of a corrupt and criminal multimedia empire, wants Tony Abbott to become PM of Australia because it suits his commercial interests, especially if an Abbott government can nobble the NBN. The punters should ask whether their interests align with Murdoch’s.
[I’d love you to give 1 example.. just 1… where the ACTU has recommended a reduction in wages or conditions to keep someones job.
Just 1 example will do. The ACTU and other unions only do wage increases, they’d rather a business shut down than renogitiating workplace agreements]
Holden has undertaken wage reductions. however in modern economies the best way to achieve this is via downward adjustment in exchange rates which is precisly what is happening in Aust at the moment. and who do I rely on for this but none other than Milton Freidman the doyen of the right:
[If internal prices were as flexible as exchange rates, it would make little economic difference whether adjustments were brought about by changes in exchange rates or equivalent changes in internal prices. But this condition is clearly not fulfilled. The exchange rate is potentially flexible in the absence of administrative action to freeze it. At least in the modern world, internal prices are highly inflexible. They are more flexible upward that downward, but even on the upswing all prices are not equally flexible. The inflexibility of prices, or different degrees of flexibility, means a distortion of adjustments in response to changes in external conditions. The adjustment taes the form primarily of price changes in some sectors, primarily of output changes in others.
Wage rates tend to be among the less flexible prices. In consequence, an incipient deficit that is countered by a policy of permitting or forcing prices to decline is likely to produce unemployment rather than, or in addition to, wage decreases. The consequent decline in real income reduces domestic demand for foreign goods and thus demand for foreign currency with which to purchase these goods. In this way it offsets the incipient deficit. But this is clearly a highly efficient method of adjusting to external changes. If the external changes are deep-seated and persistent, the unemployment produces steady downward pressure on prices and wages, and the adjustment will not have been completed until the deflation has run its sorry course.
The argument for a flexible exchange rate is, strange to say, very nearly identical with the argument for daylight savings time. Isn’t it absurd to change the clock in summer when exactly the same result could be achieved by having each individual change his habits? All that is required is that everyone decide to come to his office an hour earlier, have lunch an hour earlier, etc. But obviously it is much simpler to change the clock that guides all than to have each individual separately change his pattern of reaction to the clock, even though all want to do so. The situation is exactly the same in the exchange market. It is far simpler to allow one price to change, namely, the price of foreign exchange, than to rely upon changes in the multitude of prices that together constitute the internal price structure.]
[I’d love you to give 1 example.. just 1… where the ACTU has recommended a reduction in wages or conditions to keep someones job.
Just 1 example will do. The ACTU and other unions only do wage increases, they’d rather a business shut down than renogitiating workplace agreements]
You’re really clueless.
What about the Accords? Where the ACTU agreed on wage claim restraint in return for income tax cuts, Medicare, and compulsory super?
This was done in order to try to tame inflation which had killed the economy during the 1970s and early to mid 1980s and was eating up wage increases anyway.
smallvox
Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 8:50 pm | Permalink
Rinehart loses case against journos
Thanks for that, the pillars are crumbling.
[ Same question for the Arab Israeli Wars, either collectively or separately?]
Benny Morris “1948” (Yale, 2008)
Jeremy Bowen “Six Days” (Simon & Schuster, 2003)
Both recommended for balance and thoroughness.
There’s a raft of books on the 1973 war
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=yom+kippur+war
But I haven’t read any of them (yet).
Hi fellow PBers
Wasn’t David Bradbury a champion today…