Highlights of day one

Two new polls, one new poll aggregation, and some ads.

A quick replay of yesterday’s polling:

• Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.

• Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

• BludgerTrack, which was formerly updated weekly but will now be brought up to date whenever substantial new data arrives, records no change on two-party preferred from the addition of the two new polls, although the Greens are up on the primary vote at the expense of Labor. However, there’s a fair bit of movement on the state seat projections, with Labor up one in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania and down one in Queensland for a net gain of two seats. That leaves two state-level projections at which one might well look askance: a finding of no gains for Labor in Queensland, against three gains for them in Western Australia. Whereas poll results in the weeks after the Rudd takeover had Labor outperforming the national result in Queensland as often as not, I now have five data points over the past fortnight all of which have them below. And while three gains in Western Australia certainly seems hard to credit (for one thing, the model is not adequately accounting for Labor losing the Alannah MacTiernan dividend from 2010 in Canning, which at present is rated a probable Labor gain), all five data points from the past fortnight show Labor improving on the 2010 result – a pretty solid result given how noisy small-sample state-level data tends to be.

• As far as I can tell, Labor and Liberal each had one television ad in business yesterday, and they read from much the same tactical script: both are positive, showcase the leader, and appear tailored to launching the parties’ rather nebulous campaign slogans. Kevin Rudd speaks to us of “a new way”, Opposition Leader style, while the actual Opposition Leader makes like Luke Skywalker and offers us “new hope”. The latter effort is a fairly obvious exercise in image softening, but what most stands out for me, having grown accustomed over the years to “face of Australia” advertising being served with a thick layer of political correctness on top (Qantas being an acknowledged leader in the field), is that all but a very small handful of the 50 or so faces in the ad are white.

UPDATE: ReachTEL has published the results of an automated phone poll of 702 respondents in Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith, and it points to a 4% swing to the Liberal National Party paring his margin back to 4.5%. The primary votes from the poll are 45.6% for Kevin Rudd, 41.0% for LNP candidate Bill Glasson and 8.0% for the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,369 comments on “Highlights of day one”

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  2. The Indigenous War, WW1 and WW2 were our ‘real’ wars – they involved national/total war efforts.

    I suggest that the Korean War was the first of our many ‘token’ wars and hence not so much ‘forgotten’ as largely irrelevant to the lives of the overwhelming majority of Australians even when it was happening. Also, when it happened, the basis of comparison would have been WW2.

    http://www.awm.gov.au/atwar/korea.asp

    I found ‘The Edge of the Sword’ to be a good first person account.

    http://www.amazon.com/The-Edge-Sword-Anthony-Farrar-Hockley/dp/1844156923

  3. [I wish we’d get more marginal seats…especially mine.]

    I feel your pain. This parliament has been very good for my electorate, owing to the Liberals losing it last election for the first time ever.

  4. Two weeks before the 2010 election, JWS did a massive 25-seat poll of the marginals. 10,000 voters.

    IIRC it had marginals at 50-50 but nationally it was 52-48 Labor. That was the moment I got genuinely worried.

    I’d expect the same again.

  5. I reckon Labor should go huge on this Murdoch-NBN-Foxtel issue. It is easy to understand, and it really annoys people when they think Murdoch can treat Australia as his commercial plaything.

  6. once stood behind turnbull outside at opera house staring at black harbour. this was at leadership time. ‘quite a void’ i think i said, did not look if heard or appreciated. thought thought premature since but not now

  7. My say we have had the idiot LNP bloke in QLD, the poor Liberal bloke in Greenway being pillored everywhere and the Coalition fumbling over the economy, interest rates and policy costings so Labor have to get some sort of a bounce out of all that.

  8. I reckon Labor should go huge on this Murdoch-NBN-Foxtel issue. It is easy to understand, and it really annoys people when they think Murdoch can treat Australia as his commercial plaything.

    Particularly since he is not an Australian.

  11. murdoch’s measure met today. he was wrong to overstep and makes motives transparent. his twitters are amateur self incriminations. he peaked too soon – four weeks to go and also he is named and shamed. yet keep at it labor. name every single news reporter at every single pressie of every candidate. everyone is SS trooper for that media nazi

  13. scarpat

    yes the penultimate act of colonial control of this precious land. bring on republic and end of foxtel conglomerate (they will trash australian content anyway) … am beginning to enjoy this election

  14. Luke Mansillo ‏@mansillo 6m
    Murdoch’s financial interests in Foxtel are an impediment to him seeing the value to the nation of the #NBN #auspol #ABC730

    Retweeted by Sandy

  15. wheres miranda she’s here and then she’s gone can you pass on a message to your masters: its the interest rates stupid. please come back we need more adults in the room.

  17. Fess @ 926 – well we do see warnings on wine labels that its been fined with egg white … Not quite the same I agree

    I’m wondering if this is a new way of taking alcohol in? Would it sting? Not planning to find out mind you

  18. [So, interest rate cuts. Good news for Labor. Will resonate more than any “gaffe” stories from today.]

    Carey the Murdoch tabloids will find an old lady who eats cat food because her term deposit is paying stuff all interest.

    Page 3 I reckon, next to the one who can no longer afford to smoke.

  21. Murdoch’s financial interests in Foxtel are an impediment to him seeing the value to the nation of the #NBN #auspol #ABC730

    Why should an American have to see the value of the NBN to Australia?

  23. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/06/bottom-line-joe-hockey-deficit?CMP=twt_gu

    deficits. Photograph: Dean Lewins/AAP

    Having crucified Labor for abandoning its own foolish “come hell or high water” promise to return the budget to surplus this year, the Coalition is now saying it won’t be making any budget bottom line promises at all.

    Tony Abbott is telling voters if they want to get a feel for what kind of deficit or surplus a Coalition will deliver, they can do their own maths.

    The Coalition will cost its policies – what it will spend and what it will save – but it will not add them up to get a forecast, or a promise, for the budget bottom line.

    As a policy decision it is understandable. The
    ==========================================================

    read more

    this is cannot be so abbott says we have to do our own maths

  24. @Sean/972

    How about we investigate LNP QLD Corruption?

    To have 6-7 MP’s quit/resign over 1-2 year period, what is Newman doing?

  25. You don’t actually need armies per se, to have wars

    But in this case, British Army regular units plus various ad hoc groups of killers, plus organised offical mounted police, often involving significant numbers of Indigenous troopers v various.

    The Kalkadoon probably stood best in a stand-up battle.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalkadoon_people

    Windradyne probably did best in terms of guerilla fighting in what was known as the Bathurst Wars, with martial law being declared.

    For his troubles he has had a suburb in Bathurst named after him.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windradyne

  26. [Carey the Murdoch tabloids will find an old lady who eats cat food because her term deposit is paying stuff all interest.

    Page 3 I reckon, next to the one who can no longer afford to smoke.]

    I’m sure they will. However, years of social conditioning have made it difficult for the country, at large, not to see it as a positive for home owners.

    The economy is going to be what wins it for either side. News like this helps.

  29. [932
    davidwh

    Both Nielsen and Reachtel are polling? That’s interesting. Given today’s events if Labor can’t get a poll lead I’m not sure what they can do to get one.]

    I think the electorate is very sharply divided and the number of contestable votes is probably much smaller than usual. People have been anticipating the election for a very long time, so most will have formed their views already. The election will come down to a few thousand voters in a few tight seats.

    I think the failure of the LNP to build their primary vote from 2010 must limit their chances for a win. If they cannot lift their primary vote beyond their 2010 scores, they will very likely fall short in the 2PP count in the very tight seats. They just cannot expect to win all the tight contests in every State.

    At this stage Labor look like they can make gains in Qld and WA and hold their position in NSW and SA.

    If this happens, the LNP can only win if they can take seats from Labor in Tasmania and Victoria. Tasmania looks good for a couple of seats at least. But Victoria is hard to pick. LNP anti-policies on manufacturing will hurt the Victorian economy. As well, Labor are organisationally strong in Victoria, which must help in the street-to-street campaigning that will probably determine the election result. In general, the Victorian economy is built around satisfying domestic demand, so any budget-chopping policies will hurt Victoria more than other States. If Labor fight smart in Victoria, they can thwart the LNP.

    At this point, I think this is going to be another very tight result even though, in all, the LNP have to start as favourites.

  32. [I reckon Labor should go huge on this Murdoch-NBN-Foxtel issue. It is easy to understand, and it really annoys people when they think Murdoch can treat Australia as his commercial plaything.]

    The story is going international via Bloomberg business news:

    [News Corp. (NNC) Chairman Rupert Murdoch is determined to remove Australia’s Labor government and may see a state-owned high speed broadband network as a threat to his Foxtel cable television venture, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said.

    Murdoch and opposition leader Tony Abbott have a “strange coincidence” of views on the network being built by government-owned NBN Co., Rudd told reporters in Brisbane today.

    “Does he sense it represents a commercial challenge to Foxtel, which is a major cash cow for his company?” he asked.]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-06/murdoch-seeking-to-get-rid-of-australian-government-rudd-says.html

  34. The question is this: If the driver makes the sign of the cross after every near miss, and numerous signs of the cross are required to get from one side of Manila to the other, but every near miss turns out to be an actual miss, how should I regard the signs of the cross?

  36. ST

    ‘Putting your Donk in the Plonk is not corruption’

    OTOH, it is a significant improvement on some of the Coalition policy making processes.

  40. jeez Psephos # 970!

    As I think you know well the British Army behaved itself relatively well beyond the basics of initial conquest; outright campaigns of murder were of course conducted by settlers (mostly) and police (occasionally) into the C20th .

    Australia’s first peoples did not have an army but that hardly justifies denying them the recognition of having conducted a people’s war. Lest we forget.

  44. MM
    Psephos can speak for himself, eof course, but he probably knows his Australian history much better than most. This includes, I seem to recall, an acknowledgement that one branch of his family was involved in the Kimberleys with a range named after them… I think. A bit vague.

    I assume that Psephos. question had to do with the non-existence of an Indigenous army (armies).

  50. A little bit of toilet humour:

    [A luxury toilet controlled by a smartphone app is vulnerable to attack, according to security experts.

    Retailing for up to $5,686 (£3,821), the Satis toilet includes automatic flushing, bidet spray, music and fragrance release.

    The toilet, manufactured by Japanese firm Lixil, is controlled via an Android app called My Satis.

    But a hardware flaw means any phone with the app could activate any of the toilets, researchers say.

    The toilet uses bluetooth to receive instructions via the app, but the Pin code for every model is hardwired to be four zeros (0000), meaning that it cannot be reset and can be activated by any phone with the My Satis app, a report by Trustwave’s Spiderlabs information security experts reveals.

    “An attacker could simply download the My Satis application and use it to cause the toilet to repeatedly flush, raising the water usage and therefore utility cost to its owner,” it says in its report.

    “Attackers could {also} cause the unit to unexpectedly open/close the lid, activate bidet or air-dry functions, causing discomfort or distress to {the} user.”]

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-23575249

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