A quick replay of yesterday’s polling:
• Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.
• Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.
• BludgerTrack, which was formerly updated weekly but will now be brought up to date whenever substantial new data arrives, records no change on two-party preferred from the addition of the two new polls, although the Greens are up on the primary vote at the expense of Labor. However, there’s a fair bit of movement on the state seat projections, with Labor up one in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania and down one in Queensland for a net gain of two seats. That leaves two state-level projections at which one might well look askance: a finding of no gains for Labor in Queensland, against three gains for them in Western Australia. Whereas poll results in the weeks after the Rudd takeover had Labor outperforming the national result in Queensland as often as not, I now have five data points over the past fortnight all of which have them below. And while three gains in Western Australia certainly seems hard to credit (for one thing, the model is not adequately accounting for Labor losing the Alannah MacTiernan dividend from 2010 in Canning, which at present is rated a probable Labor gain), all five data points from the past fortnight show Labor improving on the 2010 result – a pretty solid result given how noisy small-sample state-level data tends to be.
• As far as I can tell, Labor and Liberal each had one television ad in business yesterday, and they read from much the same tactical script: both are positive, showcase the leader, and appear tailored to launching the parties’ rather nebulous campaign slogans. Kevin Rudd speaks to us of “a new way”, Opposition Leader style, while the actual Opposition Leader makes like Luke Skywalker and offers us “new hope”. The latter effort is a fairly obvious exercise in image softening, but what most stands out for me, having grown accustomed over the years to “face of Australia” advertising being served with a thick layer of political correctness on top (Qantas being an acknowledged leader in the field), is that all but a very small handful of the 50 or so faces in the ad are white.
UPDATE: ReachTEL has published the results of an automated phone poll of 702 respondents in Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith, and it points to a 4% swing to the Liberal National Party paring his margin back to 4.5%. The primary votes from the poll are 45.6% for Kevin Rudd, 41.0% for LNP candidate Bill Glasson and 8.0% for the Greens.
MTBW
I feel it to day last night I could not sleep and I am waking up early,
first thing I think of is how dreadful if they are in gov
liberls here don’t seem to understand the a re economic
dunces,
would have A DEPRESSION FOR SURE WITH HOCKEY IN CHAREGE
It might have many clicks, but I do’t think it’s very effective either way.
[We are going to win this election. I can feel it in my gut. Very scientific I know.
The Libs will not know what has happened to their best laid plans.]
Totally agree, there is no sence of change. This is much more like 1993 as it has the same elements
ALP leadership changes
LNP stuck with inflexible policy (Fightback!/No Carbon Tax/boats)
LNP in front for ages in polls but now close
Continued expectations for the LNP to win
Will be the same as in 1993 – ALP win, maybe 6 or 7 seats up.
Geez the pollsters are thick and fast. Never been polled until the last couple of years and now two in the space of an hour and a half.
Reachtel 6.25 pm was basically who will win the federal election and do you think Newmans current performance will cause people to vote against LNP in Qld.
Just now Neilsen.
Who will you vote for
who is best to handle the economy, asylum seeker boat arrivals and Education.
Is Rudd Trustworthy
Is abbott trustworthy
Looks like i guessed the right age group to be in to get asked the Questions.
the man today didn’t know how to handle press conf
can u all imagine what would happen if we had another gfc
or as I said a depepression or a recession I don’t think they would know what to do
and to sack GLEN stevens who is the guiding hand of all this
would lead us to disaster
my say
Just run with what you feel and enjoy the ride.
The Libs cutting and pasting that interview with the hair flicks is jeuvenile and just goes to show they are in trouble.
Hang in there we will be fine!
CTar1 + dave
I recently saw a doco on the battle of Kapyong. That I was so unaware of it just goes to show that the saying that Koreas was the “Forgotten war” is true. Incredible stuff from the Aussies, Canadians and Kiwis and incredible self sacrifice from the Koreans and Chinese. A testament to the stupidity of war.
At least Rudd has hair to flick. 😆
Gina continuing a tradition of never having won a meaningful court battle.
Presumably this is the judgment:
•Judgment Suppressed [2013] WASC 284 (2 August 2013)
which will emerge once Austlii is updated.
Reinhardt will appeal and appeal as she did when she failed to get suppression orders in NSW.
alias
Posted Tuesday, August 6, 2013 at 6:34 pm | Permalink
Does Abbott usually wear spectacles to read speeches?
yes in question time
he wore them I noticed not all the time so I think a PROP
you know actors do it all the time
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/assistant-treasurer-david-bradbury-in-interview-meltdown-over-rates-on-smooth-fm/story-fni0cx4q-1226692048149
a ‘meltdown’ ??
oh please !! 😆
if that’s the best gotcha they can come up with they’re struggling
Shellbell
I believe you mentioned that the MRRT judgment would be tomorrow. Is this correct?
dave
Cousin one was in the back of M113 APC two.
He got out with his medics bag but he possibly set off the next.
Fuck. Who knows.
[It might have many clicks, but I do’t think it’s very effective either way.]
I lasted 10 seconds before I’d seen enough.
Talk about WOFTAM.
This is leading the news in WA.
[The judge who acquitted Lloyd Rayney of wilfully murdering his wife had used the wrong approach in assessing the circumstantial evidence including powerful “smoking gun” evidence of the dinner placecard found near Corryn Rayney’s grave, an appeal hearing was told today.]
…
[The court heard that, while the appeal judges had the power to substitute a verdict of guilty of deemed appropriate, the State was purely seeking a retrial.
At the heart of the appeal case was Mr Jackson’s submission that key pieces of evidence were not properly considered together as a whole in the case, including a dinner place card bearing Mr Rayney’s name which had been found near his estranged wife’s Kings Park grave.
Mr Jackson submitted that people guilty of murder were often found after dropping items during their crimes, and agreed with Justice Mark Weinberg that he was effectively arguing the placecard was like a “smoking gun” in the case.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/18377296/sides-set-for-rayney-appeal/
Aside from Rayney, himself a high profile lawyer, there are no other suspects in the murder case. It is baffling, so I suppose there are no surprises the prosecution will seek out anything in order to get Rayney back in court.
Well said Darn! I don’t think the LNP have the intelligence or the ability to govern the country. It seems when they meet a fact they don’t like they just call it ‘stupid’ or ‘bias’ or ‘Labor spin’ and hope it goes away.. you know stuff like Treasury estimates and climate change…..It’s adolescent thinking….
It’s quite frightening that they may be in charge, I don’t think they could handle a real crisis.
Victoria
Yes – tomorrow’s judgments at 10.15am – number 2
(1)LEO AKIBA ON BEHALF OF THE TORRES STRAIT REGIONAL SEAS CLAIM GROUP v THE COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA & ORS
(2)FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED & ORS v THE COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
poroti@907
P – I realise its referred to as a “Forgotten War” but for the life of me, I just don’t how its possible for most Australians not to be aware of it.
In part I think it got that label early on and it stuck.
Most things seem to get labels.
But, my main point is many, many people are well aware of the Battle of Kapyong and the Korean War itself.
Thanks shellbell
Interested to see outcome
Dr Fumbles
I was there at the very heart of the 93 election working out of Kerry Sibraa’s office in the Commonwealth building doing postal votes for ten electorates.
Some of the so called smarties were all predicting a loss but I wasn’t and I was right.
Keating came in on the day before polling day to give his last presser. When he finished he came back into the office we were working from and as I had met him a few times before he looked at me and said wtte well we have done our best haven’t we?
I said to him that I was sure he would win and his Chief of Staff said wtte don’t tell him that it will build his hopes up.
I told him that the seats of Richmond etc were telling me things were picking up and that is exactly what happened.
That is part of the reason that Keating said “this is the greatest victory of all.
I think this election will be in the same class as that comment from Keating.
Fess
Appeals from acquittals are so rarely available. Big legal ramifications from that decision
The mining tax ruling is indeed tomorrow morning.
shellbell:
‘Available’, or ‘utilised’?
Just on the broadcasting act during elections thingo, they have to give equal time to “both sides” if someone says something blatantly partisan the station does not have to find a opposition position, but they have to air one if it exists.
So if your local radio talkback is all butt smells party, ring in with the opposite view, they should give you airtime.
Fess
Available – jury acquittals cannot generally be appealed. In WA, because Rayner was tried by a judge, there is an appeal available.
So was the case with Brian Burke recently, but after the prosecution won the appeal they did not bother retrying Burke which was a bit odd.
[Mr Denmore @MrDenmore 3m
Suddenly, the evening Pinot seems distinctly unappealing #AusVotes]
The more disturbing thing about that report this morning is thought that Dowling drank the glass of wine afterwards.
Thank you shellbell.
I thought appeals were available to anyone, whether they were utilised or not being a different matter.
dave
Of course people know about it. The forgotten bit is that it is not “celebrated” like other wars. Reduced to, as they said at the time, a “Police action.” . The size of which and intensity people are largely unaware. Heck Douglas MacArthur wanted to drop a-bombs on “Peking” and Russian fighter pilots were going head to head with US ones.
CTar1@913
I have seen reports that up to 40% of Australian casualties in Vietnam came from mines which the VC lifted from a minefield the Australians laid themselves.
[ In 1967 the commander of First Australian Task Force (1ATF), Brigadier Stuart Graham ordered the construction of an 11 kilometre ‘barrier fence and minefield’ in Phuoc Tuy Province, southern Vietnam. This ‘barrier’, which ran for some 11 kilometres through the southern Phuoc Tuy, would constitute the biggest blunder in Australian military history since the Second World War.
It would also constitute a story of strategic self-destruction that epitomised both Australia’s involvement in the Vietnam War and the wider Australian imperial tradition of sending expeditions to far-flung wars. – ]
See more at: http://www.japanfocus.org/-Greg-Lockhart/2447#sthash.deaPDyGl.dpuf
Good on david Bradbury he knows his stuff
not like the lib candidate in the street
david has actually highlighted and the person interviewing him would of made people realy listen
he did us service good on david there should be more of it
Amazing development today is Rudd calling out Rupert and questioning his motivation re the NBN.
Both Nielsen and Reachtel are polling? That’s interesting. Given today’s events if Labor can’t get a poll lead I’m not sure what they can do to get one.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 7m
GDP growth at 2,5% is hardly a struggling economy. #730
Collapse
David – Nielsen will poll this weekend.
[Amazing development today is Rudd calling out Rupert and questioning his motivation re the NBN.]
It was amazing, and it was a good move too. Its like when the nerdy but articulate kid calls a pack of bullies for what theyre up to and everyone goes quiet.
Theyve been getting away for murder for years, with no senior figure calling them on it.
Now their behaviour is on notice.
Rudd is quite a bit tougher than most leaders, for mine. Who else takes on Murdoch? Being popular helps of course.
lefty e
It is a big move. Hopefully Rudd can handle the blowback from Rupert and his charges
PNG signs Boats MOU signed by Australia yesterday (before caretaker kicked in )
Another Lib talking point evaporates into butt smellville.
By the way, re: young people and marriage equality:
[… the poll found only same-sex marriage and climate change were among the top five issues that will influence the votes of young people on September 7.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/young-voters-rate-jobs-housing-uni-funding-as-main-issues-20130806-2rdba.html#ixzz2bBG7swXi
1.4m are not enrolled. Geet them out – this week is the only chance! You can enrol online now. http://www.aec.gov.au/enrol/
dave – The ‘fence’ thing wasn’t a good idea.
But a long while ago when stuff went down in the Long Hai Hills.
I know Glory but Nielsen don’t usually start on Tuesday?
my oh says leigh is doing good re hockey
Mrs D, that’s her name, that name again is Mrs D.
She be lovin’ the D.
Everyone will have polled by Monday next if the last election is a guide and there may be the odd seat poll.
It was amazing, and it was a good move too. Its like when the nerdy but articulate kid calls a pack of bullies for what theyre up to and everyone goes quiet.
Theyve been getting away for murder for years, with no senior figure calling them
———————————————————————
guess what he followed me today
and mentioned the nbn
I wish we’d get more marginal seat polls.
[806
Miranda Boltt
Abbott refuses to fully release bottom line figures from costings …. Why?]
Cos he can’t add up. The LNP don’t do policies. They do inventions, distractions and fake copies.
david we don’t expect to get a lead poll
get it you have been around long enough to understand that
I wish we’d get more marginal seat polls.
I wish we’d get more marginal seats…especially mine.
How does the LNP ad claiming ‘45000 boat people’ have flooded in’ pass muster?
Its an outright lie. There have been (at most) 31,000 since 2007.
They are adding in the 14000 who arrived in an authorised manner, with a visa, on a plane.
Seems like Joe is going down a treat on 730. Back to his cupboard until the 8th I suppose. 😆