As we enter the first full day of the September 7 federal election campaign:
• Newspoll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on its poll of a fortnight ago at 52-48, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (down one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Equally worrying for Labor is a significant drop in Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings, his approval down four points to 38% and disapproval up six to 47%. However, he still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 47-33, down only slightly from 50-34 a fortnight ago. Abbott has had remarkably constant personal ratings from Newspoll since Rudd’s return: after three successive polls at 35% approval and 56% disapproval, this time he’s down one to 34% and steady at 56%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
• More current still is the result from ReachTEL, which conducted an automated phone poll of 2949 respondents for the Seven Network in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s election announcement. This too showed the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the ReachTEL poll of a week ago, from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 45.7% for the Coalition and 8.2% for the Greens. ReachTEL continues to find Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other pollsters (notwithstanding the methodological difference that the survey is only deemed completed if all questions put to respondents are answered, hence the totals adding up to 100). On the question of effective management of the economy, 60.7% favoured the Coalition compared with 39.3% for Labor. While the sample on the poll is certainly impressive, it’s considered better practice to conduct polls over longer periods.
• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with these two poll results and some further state-level data that has become available to me, and while the 50-50 starting point from last week slightly blunts the impact of two new 52-48 data points, there has nonetheless been a weighty shift to the Coalition on the implied win probability calculations. On the seat projections, the latest numbers find air going out of the Labor balloon in Queensland (down four seats), together with one-seat shifts to the Coalition in New South Wales and Tasmania. However, the projection of a second gain for Labor in Western Australia, which I looked askance at when it emerged in last week’s result, has stuck. I will resist the temptation to link this to unpopular recent actions of a state government which is flexing its muscles during the early stages of a four year electoral cycle, at least for the time being.
Tomorrow will presumably bring us the regular weekly Essential Research online poll and the Morgan “multi-mode” result, at around 2pm and 6pm EST respectively. The Poll Bludger’s regular guide to the 150 electorates will, I hope, be in action by the end of the week.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.
n2th
No worries. Greencorpse for you. Plenty of training in planting trees.
[But if Rudd has called an election you would think it is because they believe they are in a position to pull off a victory.]
He had to call one soon because time is running out. If he did not go on Sep 7 then there would be Sep 14, possibly Sep 21 but after that football finals ruled out a date. Then you are well into October or even November. If they went after September 14, there could have been the accusation of running scared.
[ Else you would wait and take the benefit of the G20.] It was mentioned tonight that Kevin 747 just before an election would have been a bad look. And the later he waited, the greater chance that the PNG solution would completely unravel.
From the Geek
[So the game is now for the Libs to see how long they can get away with shielding Abbott from scrutiny in debates, policy and costings.]
189
crikey whitey
[Just Me, I noticed your TV signal comment.
Do you live in SA?]
NT.
New2This
[I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor]
I am moved by your tragic story, and no doubt you are completely truthfull. For the benefit of the skeptics, don’t identify yourself, but just share which industry you we in and what your jon was? I am curious to better understand which Labor policy caused you to be retrenched?
Of course, if you were John Howard’s speechwriter, then you shouldn’t have been manufacturing lies in the first place 🙂
[The Libs have had a “stable” front bench,]
In the sense that they are mostly inert dead weight.
The Liberal Front Bench isn’t that stable, it’s just that they’ve all got rigor-mortis
Polls usually don’t change much over an election campaign.
They may get worse for Labor this timer as Murdoch has sent his hatchet man Col Allen over from New York to portray Rudd in the worst possible light.
Abbott is without a doubt the biggest political coward I have ever seen.
I see that Hird has declared that he does not know that is in the ASADA Report because he is only the coach.
Dio
[What’s with the slogan “A New Way” when Labor has been in power for six years? What’s this New Way?]
Indeed. One would think the obvious retort from the Coalition would be “We’re the only ones actually offering a new way…”
TT
[Polls usually don’t change much over an election campaign.]
That is not my recollection. Latham was in front on the Sunday before the poll in 2004.
warner to open……now for a 20:20 innings?
[Polls usually don’t change much over an election campaign.]
The first poll of the 2010 campaign showed Labor leading 55-45. It was 50-50 by the last poll – and that was the actual result.
@Lynchpin/209
Even back when I first voted in 2004 (Think it was then).
Howard vs Beezely (I think it was then also).
Abbott is like a Rabbitt hiding in a corner.
I think it is a good slogan. It is a new way from the carping negativity of the last three years, brought about largely by that singular carper, Tony Abbott.
Print packaging. Reason cost of goods sold. Rising overheads.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/murdochs-vicious-attacks-on-rudd-its-business-20130803-2r65x.html
read more
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my say
may good defeat evil
Toorak Toff@208
We have had this conversation before and again you try it on, knowing things can change –
18 July 2010 – Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor
21 August 2010 – Newspoll 50.2-49.8 to Labor.
Goods to be processed in Sri-lanka
Lynchpin @183
“Give me an example of the legislation.”
The recent FBT changes is the first to come to mind. No discussion with the associated industries and the treasury didn’t even bother to model job losses and loss of car sales as a result. Now the government is in backtrack mode just about to shell out $200M in hush money to Holden.
Are there recent examples when Labor improved its vote during an election campaign? This time the Coalition is loaded with cash.
I thought paul Sheehan was a news ltd is he fair fax
[It is a new way from the carping negativity of the last three years, brought about largely by that singular carper, Tony Abbott.]
The striking feature of Rudd’s attack on negativity was that it is also being negative by concentrating on Tony Abbott. Somehow, to Labor their negative is being positive, but to Labor the Libs negative is negative.
@Morpheus/221
Tony Abbott didn’t back the Car Industry in 2012.
And there was a split between Hockey & Co about it.
The $500 million dollar one.
They do however, complain about FBT rorts.
[Print packaging. Reason cost of goods sold. Rising overheads.]
What about greedy owners?
Toorak Toff@222
Have a look through this website.
[The recent FBT changes is the first to come to mind.]
What, ensuring a proper audit trail for tax purposes?
[The recent FBT changes is the first to come to mind. No discussion with the associated industries and the treasury didn’t even bother to model job losses and loss of car sales as a result. Now the government is in backtrack mode just about to shell out $200M in hush money to Holden.]
Wrong. Reforming FBT was recommended in the Henry Review.
[Polls usually don’t change much over an election campaign.]
That is completely false, as has been pointed out here.
With a margin as narrow as the current poll trend, this election could go any way, TBH.
It is the first election I have seen in a long time where it hasn’t started with any strong “vibe” over which way it will go. Normally, regardless of the polls, you can kinda tell, barring a major campaign blunder, whether it’s the government’s or opposition’s to lose. Not this time. Everything over the next 5 weeks is going to matter.
Labor are stuffed, their polling will be downhill from here and the Labor hacks in here will only have “wait till people are in the polling booth” lie left
FBT on cars was a tax rort exploited by some people, how anybody can criticise the recent changes is beyond me.
n2th
‘The recent FBT changes is the first to come to mind. No discussion with the associated industries and the treasury didn’t even bother to model job losses and loss of car sales as a result. Now the government is in backtrack mode just about to shell out $200M in hush money to Holden.’
So, in the interests of democracy: Are the Coalition doing Mirabella’s $500 million industry cuts? Or are they doing no cuts, a la Minchin’s latest diatribe?
Did the Coalition discuss this massacre of the car industry with the car industry and with the car industry workers?
Is the FBT taxpayer subsidy to the lucky few supported by the small government, anti market distortion Coalition?
As usual, the democracy thieves have multiple policy disorder. They have no values, no principles no committment to policy. All they have is whatever-it-takes with a rotten apple as a leader.
It is this you should be concerned about – unless, of course, you happen to be a democracy thief-for-hire yourself?
Troy Bramston says Newspoll tomorrow, so tonight
In a spirit of camaraderie and psephological fellowship, I thought I would help any Liberal staffers present with campaign tips, since they seemed so unprepared during Abbott’s presser.
Campaign Slogans:
Tony Abbott cares about battling millionaires
A vote for Abbott is a vote for Rupert Murdoch
Turn back the clock 5 years – vote Liberal
Tony Abbott will make Aussie manufacturing stronger through lower wages
Bumper stickers:
My other car is a Mercedes
Lobotomise if you’re Liberal
Stop the debates!
@GC/234
What does that mean no newspoll tonight?
My position was in digital pre-production. I was offered a position to train Indian staff on a reduced salary. I changed industry. A colleague has been offered a position to train staf in Sri-Lanka.
[This time the Coalition is loaded with cash.]
And they’ve had candidates preselected and on the ground ready to go for some time now.
I do so love Sean calling everybody else hacks, considering he has never posted anything on here that wasn’t pre-written, pro-Coalition spin.
Zoidlord – in tomorrow’s paper, which means we get it tonight (typically)
[Troy Bramston says Newspoll tomorrow, so tonight]
Unless he means tomorrow night. 😛
N2th
‘ A colleague has been offered a position to train staf in Sri Lanka.’
Would that be staph or staff?
Zoidlord if its published tomorrow then it will be known later tonight.
Boerwar,
I’m fine, thanks for asking. Visiting a friend who broke a hip.
This time the Coalition is loaded with cash.
And they’ve had candidates preselected and on the ground ready to go for some time now.
Too bad about no policies…
Ah ok.
Does it mean usually if release early – bad
release late – ok/better?
Are we getting a Newspoll tonight?
If we are I think it’s going to be a shocker!
All the Liberal supporting panellists on that crappy Paul Murray program, not that I watch it, it happened to be on, were – beaming with joy.
Stopping the rorting of the FBT is a bad thing.
Stopping the co-contribution payment for superannuation of 3.7 million workers, mainly women is a good thing
To quote Homer Simpson – Dur
How does Rudd propose to resuscitate manufacturing?
[FBT on cars was a tax rort exploited by some people, how anybody can criticise the recent changes is beyond me.]
Can you criticise the government for turning a $4 Billion “surplus” into a $30 Billion deficit?
FBT is just Labor desperation to fix their stuffed budget thats the problem