As we enter the first full day of the September 7 federal election campaign:
• Newspoll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on its poll of a fortnight ago at 52-48, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (down one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Equally worrying for Labor is a significant drop in Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings, his approval down four points to 38% and disapproval up six to 47%. However, he still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 47-33, down only slightly from 50-34 a fortnight ago. Abbott has had remarkably constant personal ratings from Newspoll since Rudd’s return: after three successive polls at 35% approval and 56% disapproval, this time he’s down one to 34% and steady at 56%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
• More current still is the result from ReachTEL, which conducted an automated phone poll of 2949 respondents for the Seven Network in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s election announcement. This too showed the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the ReachTEL poll of a week ago, from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 45.7% for the Coalition and 8.2% for the Greens. ReachTEL continues to find Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other pollsters (notwithstanding the methodological difference that the survey is only deemed completed if all questions put to respondents are answered, hence the totals adding up to 100). On the question of effective management of the economy, 60.7% favoured the Coalition compared with 39.3% for Labor. While the sample on the poll is certainly impressive, it’s considered better practice to conduct polls over longer periods.
• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with these two poll results and some further state-level data that has become available to me, and while the 50-50 starting point from last week slightly blunts the impact of two new 52-48 data points, there has nonetheless been a weighty shift to the Coalition on the implied win probability calculations. On the seat projections, the latest numbers find air going out of the Labor balloon in Queensland (down four seats), together with one-seat shifts to the Coalition in New South Wales and Tasmania. However, the projection of a second gain for Labor in Western Australia, which I looked askance at when it emerged in last week’s result, has stuck. I will resist the temptation to link this to unpopular recent actions of a state government which is flexing its muscles during the early stages of a four year electoral cycle, at least for the time being.
Tomorrow will presumably bring us the regular weekly Essential Research online poll and the Morgan “multi-mode” result, at around 2pm and 6pm EST respectively. The Poll Bludger’s regular guide to the 150 electorates will, I hope, be in action by the end of the week.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.
[I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor]
Yeah and I was just made redundant because of the stupidity of the likes of you wailing about how evil renewable energy is .
[I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor]
I don’t think journalism will be an alternative for you
Meanwhile, our successes in Libya and Iraq continue to mount.
Matt Thistlewhaite has his posters up in Kingsford-Smith. You can see the ALP logo easily.
Nice beachey background and I think the photo is circa 2003.
[I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor]
Were you employed in the Bullshit Factory?
n2th
I didn’t know that the Labor Government made people get out of manufacturing bullshit.
L
Bingo!
These Poms are starting to bug me.
Newspoll isn’t so good for the ALP according to Chris Kenny (sort of tells you a bit about where Sky News is heading when they have that muppet giving you hints at things like the Newspoll)
B
Bingo!
New2this
You lost your job in an industry in which Australia cannot compete with low wage countries. Do what the rest of us had to or are doing. Retrain for another industry. Shutup whining like all Lib crybabies and use some of that self-reliance and ‘guvmint get outa my life’ philosphy so loved by the Libs to make yourself attractive in the free and open market where people like you sell your wares in the employment showcase.
It is a saga watching us try to knock over 9-10-jack.
Well, I will be disappointed if Newspoll has blown to 54-46. Surprised, too.
[ according to Chris Kenny ]
Mmmm –
[ Authentic Observer @BarossaObserver
Every time you read @chriskenny’s opinion, remember he was Turnbull’s Chief Of Staff during the Godwin Grech fiasco #auspol ]
saga: ‘A long story of heroic achievement.’
Really?
ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:58 pm | Permalink
Well I walked past the Liberals’ campaign office for the seat of Adelaide this evening and it was CLOSED!
Looks like those Liberals are too lazy to work on a Sunday.
—————————————————–
The Libs don’t believe in paying penalty rates….reap what you sow
New2This
“I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor”
What was your employer’s business name?
dendrite
[I am not a medic of any sort, as far as I know. Without giving too much away, I’m just a PhD student who likes playing with numbers …]
The only way I can think of numbers combined with dendrites is fractals like Julia sets.
Kenny is a biased Liberal mouthpiece, but that doesnt mean he can’t read a poll.
Lynchpin @155
“I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor
Were you employed in the Bullshit Factory?”
The difference is that apparently the ALP CARE when then screw around with the economy and introduce business crippling “gotcha” legislation and rules that end with predictable job losses (at least predictable to anyone with a brain so that excludes the ALP). And because they CARE makes all the difference it seems in the feeble minds of the ALP drones.
I guess no one had the balls to mention the god-botherer psycho Kevin was trolling around church today before the election announcement. Wonder how much he was praying for a win ?
[I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor]
When the going gets just a little bit tough, faux conservatives the world over put their nose to the grindstone and get down to some hardcore whining.
Bet your house on it.
[Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other polling]
When I see this I know there is something strange about the sample. Even if the Coalition led Abbott wouldn’t be PPM.
I do believe the Coalition is in front but at 50-51
But if Rudd has called an election you would think it is because they believe they are in a position to pull off a victory. Else you would wait and take the benefit of the G20.
I do hope that our climate hero (aka RuddAbbott) has got this front of mind:
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
[ I lost my job in manufacturing… ]
Look on the bright side.
Made someones day to kick your sorry arse out the door.
TP
‘But if Rudd has called an election you would think it is because they believe they are in a position to pull off a victory.’
But for four years you PROMISED!
By bad for the ALP, all he said was they start from behind. Could be a stable 2PP or movement by 1% up or down.
He said Rudd’s numbers are down which probably doesn’t mean too much at this point.
Best to take it all with a grain of salt. I assume we’re starting at 48/52 overall
[Kenny is a biased Liberal mouthpiece, but that doesnt mean he can’t read a poll.]
But what about Dennis Shanahan?
“I lost my job in manufacturing…”
Newt, I believe coles are hiring trolley boys at the moment.
[I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor]
Losing a job is a tough thing.
Just think of those many thousands in Qld that Newman sacked without warning prior to the election. Abbott will do the same plus some.
New2This and Sean T share a room.
Competition to see who can come up with the dumbest comment.
Nope = still can’t find the care factor for these two hopeless refugees from the shallow end of gene pool
TP – that, or they are getting feedback that their vote is waning.
I believe he said ‘not a great poll for Rudd’.
His ridiculously high PPM might have dipped but the TPP remains OK.
Anything 52-48 to 50-50 is fine.
Morpheus
[introduce business crippling “gotcha” legislation and rules that end with predictable job losses]
Give me an example of the legislation.
I barrack for the Britishers in the cricket because they understand ‘Whatever it takes’ better than the hapless ones.
[182
ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 9:14 pm | PERMALINK
After we get this one last fucktard out we should open up with Warner and Watson and just blaze away.]
Given their recently history, preferably not at each other.
I don’t think much credence can be given to the Reachtel poll released tonight. The Newspoll for tomorrow or Tuesday will have more credibility but most of that will have been taken before the election was actually declared. Next weeks polls will be the ones to watch as they will have been taken in the time when the brain of the electorate has switched on.
[Given their recently history, preferably not at each other.]
What history?
Are their rumours in legal circles that they have had a tiff?
I did Antony Green’s Vote Compass thing. The Defence question used to gauge whether Defence is of importance to people was an interesting one. It asked about spending.
I am much more interested in ridding the ADF of its culture of abuse. If that question had been asked, I would’ve rated Defence higher as being important to me.
I couldn’t care less about spending, principally because I have no idea what constitutes appropriate spending on Defence.
Back from the hospital. Wifi signal a bit shabby there today.
Just Me, I noticed your TV signal comment.
Do you live in SA?
I was re-employed soon after the company folded. Many of my colleagues weren’t so lucky. Some of my colleagues have lost positions a second time.
Blackburn, good point.
[Next weeks polls will be the ones to watch as they will have been taken in the time when the brain of the electorate has switched on.]
Yes, plus we’ll have had a first full week of campaigning.
OK, WE GOT THE FUCKERS OUT, NOW WE HAVE TO BLAZE AWAY.
Finally! All out.
@New2This/190
Companies fold all the time, my dad use to work for big multi-national company until it was folded.
It happens all the time.
This proves that Private sector is less reliable than Goverment.
155
Lynchpin
[I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor
Were you employed in the Bullshit Factory?]
He he he…
As for retraining that was another Gillard driven rort. Companies trading government funded corn-flake packet certificates.
cw
I trust all is well?
[I reckon stability will be a big issue in this election]
Lol! The Libs have had a “stable” front bench, but loaded with proven incompetents. They haven’t been able to change their front bench since if they did, they would have had to drop two of them.
On twitter
[Abbott smug & misleading, won’t release funding & costings, with Hockey doesn’t trust treasury, then prosumes to lecture Oz on trust #AusPol]
Bingo!