Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

ReachTEL has opened the election campaign polling account in very short order, while Newspoll has published a poll following its normal Friday-to-Sunday schedule. The two concur on two-party preferred, with the latter finding Kevin Rudd taking a hit on his personal ratings.

As we enter the first full day of the September 7 federal election campaign:

• Newspoll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on its poll of a fortnight ago at 52-48, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (down one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Equally worrying for Labor is a significant drop in Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings, his approval down four points to 38% and disapproval up six to 47%. However, he still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 47-33, down only slightly from 50-34 a fortnight ago. Abbott has had remarkably constant personal ratings from Newspoll since Rudd’s return: after three successive polls at 35% approval and 56% disapproval, this time he’s down one to 34% and steady at 56%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

• More current still is the result from ReachTEL, which conducted an automated phone poll of 2949 respondents for the Seven Network in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s election announcement. This too showed the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the ReachTEL poll of a week ago, from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 45.7% for the Coalition and 8.2% for the Greens. ReachTEL continues to find Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other pollsters (notwithstanding the methodological difference that the survey is only deemed completed if all questions put to respondents are answered, hence the totals adding up to 100). On the question of effective management of the economy, 60.7% favoured the Coalition compared with 39.3% for Labor. While the sample on the poll is certainly impressive, it’s considered better practice to conduct polls over longer periods.

• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with these two poll results and some further state-level data that has become available to me, and while the 50-50 starting point from last week slightly blunts the impact of two new 52-48 data points, there has nonetheless been a weighty shift to the Coalition on the implied win probability calculations. On the seat projections, the latest numbers find air going out of the Labor balloon in Queensland (down four seats), together with one-seat shifts to the Coalition in New South Wales and Tasmania. However, the projection of a second gain for Labor in Western Australia, which I looked askance at when it emerged in last week’s result, has stuck. I will resist the temptation to link this to unpopular recent actions of a state government which is flexing its muscles during the early stages of a four year electoral cycle, at least for the time being.

Tomorrow will presumably bring us the regular weekly Essential Research online poll and the Morgan “multi-mode” result, at around 2pm and 6pm EST respectively. The Poll Bludger’s regular guide to the 150 electorates will, I hope, be in action by the end of the week.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 44
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  2. [ Allan Moir did a great single frame cartoon a while back portraying Abbot as Gollum (in red budgie smugglers) stretching desperately across a crumbling chasm for his precious, just beyond his reach on the other side.

    But I can’t find the link for it. Anybody else got it? ]

  9. confessions

    from your Ellis link:

    ‘I don’t feel great about this. The victories on Better Schools and NDIS needed more time to bed down,…’

    Sure. The tough, responsible negotiations under Gillard turned into whatever it takes, baby.

    ‘ and Burke more time to assert his power and primacy and easy, genial authority over the new colonies,’

    Sure. As if PNG and Nauru are ‘fixable’ in the space of weeks.

    ‘September 7 … allows KR insufficient time to show his tranquil magnitude, his honour, his decency, his calm, his conscience.’

    BWAHAHAHA

    ‘It will be only seventy-eight days since his return and it should be a hundred.’

    Referring to that other Napoleon and his Waterloo. Cute.

    ‘It is all too soon. Rudd has gone from messiah to underdog in about five hours.

    For the first time, I feel trepidation.’

    Should we all have what Ellis is having?

  16. [Looks like its 5 weeks of name calling coming up…..how edifying!]

    I’m pretty confident there will be less abuse than the Gillard-Rudd Wars.

  17. Abbot in his speech “build a country where no one ever feels like a stranger, where the bonds of community are stronger and stronger”. Is there a dog whistle on immigration here?

  18. will abbott appear on Q&A will he debate the PM will he reveal his costings will he reveal any policies or is real solutions all we get? so many questions but no answers fron Gollum.

  19. [DisplayName
    ….
    I might take a vacation from PB]

    Perhaps some of us could ask William for a no name-calling thread?

  20. New2This

    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    Ask the parents of the pink batts debacle. If they lost children you jackass…
    ——————————————————

    Please provide a reference. If you cannot substantiate your claim crawl back in to your hole

  22. Mod Lib,

    I am not a medic of any sort, as far as I know. Without giving too much away, I’m just a PhD student who likes playing with numbers …

  23. New2This
    [
    Ask the parents of the pink batts debacle.]
    Umm like “Why was your son so stupid that after being supplied with a plastic staple gun and being told not to went out and bought and used the metal staple gun wot killed him ? “

  24. Boerwar:

    It’s probably one of his more lucid contributions.

    We never did get to see that polling in Dobell he was spruiking not that long ago.

  25. Showson @70

    “Mod Lib simply lacks morals.”

    Or maybe his morals aren’t up for grabs and dependent on Twitter polling unlike psycho Kevin who seems to have mastered the turn-on-a-dime backflip with a quarter drone twist.

    Seems the ALP drones are rather more rattled than usual tonight. Have you lost the faith ? Surely you have been re-indoctrinated by the new Kevin Massiah and the past is just a hazy demented amnesia ? Now they are falling over themselves to excuse anything psycho Kevin does whereas at any other time the same actions would have been abhorrent. As I said, high horse morality courtesy of Twitter.

  27. Does anyone know when the next unemployment figures get released?

    ….and when do the Tripodi and other ALP Minister appearances at ICAC happen?

  29. [dendrite
    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:52 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib,

    I am not a medic of any sort, as far as I know. Without giving too much away, I’m just a PhD student who likes playing with numbers …]

    Well best of luck in becoming a “real” doctor then!

  31. n2th
    ‘I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor’

    Cry me a river. You would have lost your job faster, and for less, under Abbott.

  34. [Mod Lib,

    I am not a medic of any sort, as far as I know. Without giving too much away, I’m just a PhD student who likes playing with numbers …]
    This post will be too hard for Mod Lib to understand because it had the word “numbers” in it. Please also avoid posts directed at Mr D that have actual numbers in them.

  35. New2This

    Do you have any idea how many jobs were lost in the GFC?

    Do you know what so called experts such as Access Economics predicted the unemployment rate to reach here in Australia at the height of the GFC?

    I think you will find the Rudd stimulus saved thousands and thousands of jobs!

  36. I am not a medic of any sort, as far as I know. Without giving too much away, I’m just a PhD student who likes playing with numbers …

    Dendrite,

    then are you a certain W. Bowe?…

  37. [ruawake
    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:53 pm | PERMALINK
    When will the Libs release a Health policy?]

    wasn’t that reversing the higher excise on Tobacco?

  41. [Mod Lib
    …..
    Perhaps some of us could ask William for a no name-calling thread?]

    We will just have to decide whether William would be allowed on it!

  42. Now Rudd’s big advantage, that his IQ is double that of Abbott’s, is going to be gamed by Loghnane and Credlin.

    Rorted Hill Mark2. sprocket
    ==========================================================s sprocket what do you mean re the above.\\
    what do u mean gamed

  44. New2this
    The 20,000 public servants to be sacked by the Libs, plus 40,000 workers losing jobs in industries supported by their wages are going to hate Abbott and the L/NP worse.

  45. New2This

    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

    I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor
    —————————————————–

    After reading your posts I don’t think you lost your job because of Labor – even the most basic of jobs require some intelligence and an IQ greater than your shoe size

  47. New2This@121


    I lost my job in manufacturing… Thanks to labor

    Joe has asked you for details over and over….remember ?

    [ Joe6pack
    Posted Friday, December 21, 2012 at 8:55 pm | Permalink

    New2this – Is a liar , yes he is many times I have asked him, quite politely to name his former employer.

    He has always either run away or is saying I am waiting for my entitlements.

    Bullshit. Name them it is no skin of your nose now if they are in administration, it wont affect your payout one bit.

    You sir are a bullshit artist and until you answer a simple ? that is what you will be seen as. ]

  48. [When will the Libs release a Health policy?]

    In the latest edition of ‘Substance’ journal they get Labor, liberal and Greens policies on illicit drug use.

    Labor’s and the Greens’ is evidence-based harm minimisation, whereas Dutton uses terms like tough on drugs to express their policy.

  49. Well I walked past the Liberals’ campaign office for the seat of Adelaide this evening and it was CLOSED!

    Looks like those Liberals are too lazy to work on a Sunday.

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