Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

ReachTEL has opened the election campaign polling account in very short order, while Newspoll has published a poll following its normal Friday-to-Sunday schedule. The two concur on two-party preferred, with the latter finding Kevin Rudd taking a hit on his personal ratings.

As we enter the first full day of the September 7 federal election campaign:

• Newspoll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on its poll of a fortnight ago at 52-48, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (down one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Equally worrying for Labor is a significant drop in Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings, his approval down four points to 38% and disapproval up six to 47%. However, he still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 47-33, down only slightly from 50-34 a fortnight ago. Abbott has had remarkably constant personal ratings from Newspoll since Rudd’s return: after three successive polls at 35% approval and 56% disapproval, this time he’s down one to 34% and steady at 56%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

• More current still is the result from ReachTEL, which conducted an automated phone poll of 2949 respondents for the Seven Network in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s election announcement. This too showed the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the ReachTEL poll of a week ago, from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 45.7% for the Coalition and 8.2% for the Greens. ReachTEL continues to find Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other pollsters (notwithstanding the methodological difference that the survey is only deemed completed if all questions put to respondents are answered, hence the totals adding up to 100). On the question of effective management of the economy, 60.7% favoured the Coalition compared with 39.3% for Labor. While the sample on the poll is certainly impressive, it’s considered better practice to conduct polls over longer periods.

• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with these two poll results and some further state-level data that has become available to me, and while the 50-50 starting point from last week slightly blunts the impact of two new 52-48 data points, there has nonetheless been a weighty shift to the Coalition on the implied win probability calculations. On the seat projections, the latest numbers find air going out of the Labor balloon in Queensland (down four seats), together with one-seat shifts to the Coalition in New South Wales and Tasmania. However, the projection of a second gain for Labor in Western Australia, which I looked askance at when it emerged in last week’s result, has stuck. I will resist the temptation to link this to unpopular recent actions of a state government which is flexing its muscles during the early stages of a four year electoral cycle, at least for the time being.

Tomorrow will presumably bring us the regular weekly Essential Research online poll and the Morgan “multi-mode” result, at around 2pm and 6pm EST respectively. The Poll Bludger’s regular guide to the 150 electorates will, I hope, be in action by the end of the week.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 35 of 44
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  2. lizzie
    Posted Monday, August 5, 2013 at 6:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Meguire Bob

    Others have already corrected you today.

    ——

    but there are proven to be wrong

  5. Instead of taxpayers having to fund more child care – what is the ALP doing to make it possible for families to rely on one income earner? Nothing – nothing they are doing will lead to massive land development and releases and massive building programs of housing that this nation needs for affordable market prices in housieng and rent.

  8. MB

    Thank you. I have seen that too. “Minority government” only applies to the Lower House, as far as a “hung parliament” is concerned.

  11. the funny thing about this video is that the lib person mentions people doing it tough re the ppl
    which could hardly be so as its a money for staying home

    I read some where the other day that the PPl scheme was not going ahead,???

  12. What is the ALP doing to get all the stalled resources projects off the ground?

    Nothing

    More resource projects where we have global competitive advantage – that’s what the economy needs – not throwing money at sclerotic industries beholden to unions and ALP seats.

  15. lizzie

    No a minority government can include the seante

    because the government needs the senate to pass legislaton

    The coalition may control the house of reps but it will be in the same situation as a minority government would be

    it need to make deals wiht the senate

  16. Sean @6:40pm – there was no point in hding the local government referendum because the Liberal Party were divided by the issue and decided their purposes would be best served by playing politics with it. I don’t know where the $20 million figure came from. It amounts to about 70 to 100 person years of effort which doesn’t seem credible. I call billshit on that. In any case holding the referendum would have meant throwing good money after bad and put the issue off the agenda for a decade or more. This election will be just too poisonous to include a referendum on any subject.

  19. john Howard had a majority in the house but not the senate

    he needed to make deals with the the democrats to get the gst

    Gillard had a minority government ,

    but was in the same situation as howard

  21. MB

    After an election, the leader of the winning party in the HOR tells the GG that he/she has the numbers to form a government. The position in the Senate is irrelevant for forming a govt, tho it may make it difficult to pass legislation. This has been the position for years and years under both Lib and Lab.

  23. Abbott has said he will not do deals with independents and minor parties

    Minor parties are more in the influence in the senate

  25. So nice to have Meguire Bob redefining centuries of Westminister style Parliamentary democracy in one day.

    The guy is a genius!

  26. lizzie
    Posted Monday, August 5, 2013 at 7:04 pm | PERMALINK
    MB

    After an election, the leader of the winning party in the HOR tells the GG that he/she has the numbers to form a government. The position in the Senate is irrelevant for forming a govt, tho it may make it difficult to pass legislation.

    —————-

    Lizzie the governor genera lcan rfefuse ot swear in a pm if there can not be senate guarentee

  27. smssiva@1663

    Bemused 1618,

    The point is Labour is trying to cover all bases in their candidate.

    Your implication was that Jason was not Australian.

    Yes, I am being a bit pedantic and I knew what you meant.

    But us Caucasian Aussies have got to get used to Aussies having all sorts of ethnicities and backgrounds.

  30. well if abbott would not a minority gov, every on should vote labor so we have a majority

    gosh he says some stupid things

    and as for hockey I think he is pandering to the self funded retirees

  31. Lizzie the governor general can refuse not swear in a pm if there can not be senate guarentee

    So if abbott continues to say he isnt going to do deals

    that means hardly anything will get pass in the senate

    so there for abbott can not govern

  32. [Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has pledged that he will never head up a minority government, should Australian voters deliver a hung parliament again, in a bid to get voters to make a definite choice for the Liberal and National parties.]

    This is where Palmer comes in with an ‘offer’ to LNP voters who want Turnbull:

    [But Mr Palmer seized on Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s vow not to negotiate with independents and minor parties to form government if neither major party secured a majority at the September 7 election.

    Mr Palmer said as a former Liberal National Party member he knew Mr Abbott would not be allowed to forfeit the opportunity to form government, so another hung Parliament could trigger a Liberal leadership change.

    ”I know how the cesspool works,” Mr Palmer said in Brisbane on Monday.
    ”If Australians really want Mr Turnbull to lead the Liberal party they should vote for us.”]

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/vote-for-us-if-you-want-malcolm-turnbull-says-palmer-20130805-2r8om.html#ixzz2b5G7GInG

  34. CC, congrats on somehow managing to contribute serial posts which are even more offensive and stupid than those from Truthy. Didn’t think it could be done. If (as I think) this is a year 11 online satire project you are doing great.

  35. Lizzie. Saw that interview. I too was surprised at firstly that the issue had even been addressed and in agreement with you on Joe’s approach.

  37. Re ABC presenters who have become Liberal politicians, I can think of several:

    Pru Goward, Peter Collins Sarah Henderson and I’m sure there are others

    And vice versa: Bruce Webster, Amanda Vanstone

  40. crikey whitey

    Perhaps that full on assault in the Daily Tele had turned on the “balance gene” of the ABC producers!!!

  41. Meguire Bob @7:01 PM. You make a very good point. Because of the way our party system interacts with our bicameral Parliament, nearly all Federal governments need to negotiate with minor parties and independents to get their legislation passed, which is very similar to the situation of a minority government. On the rare occasions when the Government of the day controls the upper house, it’s function as a House of review is essentially shut down.

  43. [akes me wonder why I bother pushing my kids to get a good education if they are going to be just forking out their tax dollars to pay the interest and debt bills on today’s ALP spendthrifts]

    Let’s hope they turn out smarter than you

  44. MB #1736 – give it up. The LOTO, pitiful as he is,still knows enough that he is talking about a majority only in the reps. This, as correctly insisted by Gough, is where government is formed.

  46. ruawake @1720

    1. Exclude green field projects from having Union EBA’s.
    2. Reduce the environmental compliance requirements – inlcuding only requiring one level of environmental approval – either State or Territory – not both.
    3. Significant new tax breaks for investment in green field resource developments.
    4. Replace the piecemeal and fragmented multiple level Regulatory Permitting approvals process – Set up one-stop planning approval process for all regulators to deal with super Projects of $50 million or more and remove local councils from slwoing the processes.

    There’s plenty of things they could do to make us much more enticing for large investors.

  47. [Why should Abbott be beholden to Rudd’s preferred debate schedule and format?

    Jam it.]
    Insightful political commentary from the team that brought you turn back the boats. Did the talking points tell you to throw in Americanisms to sound more hip for the younger voters?

  49. Yuk but. Izatso alerted us to the site earlier in the day.

    Looks like it is attracting serious follower numbers.

    Australia Boycotts News Corp.Begins Aug26

  50. Marrickville Mauler

    why was the whtilam governemnt sacked by the governor general

    it was something to do with the seante wasnt it

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