Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

ReachTEL has opened the election campaign polling account in very short order, while Newspoll has published a poll following its normal Friday-to-Sunday schedule. The two concur on two-party preferred, with the latter finding Kevin Rudd taking a hit on his personal ratings.

As we enter the first full day of the September 7 federal election campaign:

• Newspoll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on its poll of a fortnight ago at 52-48, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (down one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Equally worrying for Labor is a significant drop in Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings, his approval down four points to 38% and disapproval up six to 47%. However, he still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 47-33, down only slightly from 50-34 a fortnight ago. Abbott has had remarkably constant personal ratings from Newspoll since Rudd’s return: after three successive polls at 35% approval and 56% disapproval, this time he’s down one to 34% and steady at 56%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

• More current still is the result from ReachTEL, which conducted an automated phone poll of 2949 respondents for the Seven Network in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s election announcement. This too showed the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the ReachTEL poll of a week ago, from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 45.7% for the Coalition and 8.2% for the Greens. ReachTEL continues to find Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other pollsters (notwithstanding the methodological difference that the survey is only deemed completed if all questions put to respondents are answered, hence the totals adding up to 100). On the question of effective management of the economy, 60.7% favoured the Coalition compared with 39.3% for Labor. While the sample on the poll is certainly impressive, it’s considered better practice to conduct polls over longer periods.

• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with these two poll results and some further state-level data that has become available to me, and while the 50-50 starting point from last week slightly blunts the impact of two new 52-48 data points, there has nonetheless been a weighty shift to the Coalition on the implied win probability calculations. On the seat projections, the latest numbers find air going out of the Labor balloon in Queensland (down four seats), together with one-seat shifts to the Coalition in New South Wales and Tasmania. However, the projection of a second gain for Labor in Western Australia, which I looked askance at when it emerged in last week’s result, has stuck. I will resist the temptation to link this to unpopular recent actions of a state government which is flexing its muscles during the early stages of a four year electoral cycle, at least for the time being.

Tomorrow will presumably bring us the regular weekly Essential Research online poll and the Morgan “multi-mode” result, at around 2pm and 6pm EST respectively. The Poll Bludger’s regular guide to the 150 electorates will, I hope, be in action by the end of the week.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 36 of 44
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  1. Socrates. Patrick Bateman et al.

    Sigh.

    South Rd to Ashford Hospital and back to Brighton. Spent a few minutes with the patient.

  2. bemused

    Bluey reckons he can’t understand why some humans, such as yourself, Rudd and Abbott, are nasty and brutish, while at the same time pretending to claim some higher vision involving gentleness, kindness, and the good of the peoples. Bluey reckons he can spot this sort of con job from miles away but that it must be harder for humans because the parties keep chucking up crap for candidates.

    Surely, he reckons, there must be a half-decent human being who is also capable of running the country?

    He also reckons that you three could represent the first significant crack in Darwin’s theory. Bluey reckons he has met annelids with more backbone and integrity.

    BTW, Bluey reckons that Labor has a thing or two to learn about stacking. Comelec had riots in the streets as it tried to register a huge surge of voters (million+) before the deadline for the Barangay (local council equivalent) elections. Plus, there are some questions being asked about why Comelec was still printing ballots for the last election three months AFTER the last election.

  3. Not much of an apology for Ramjan.

    We defamed you but only to the extent we implied you did have not a honestly held belief an event occurred.

  4. Who else had their day spoilt today by unfortunately coming across a copy of the Daily Disease?

    They picked a slogan for Labor:

    K I C K – T H E M – O U T

    Full front page of Rudd announcing election with a three word headline:

    K I C K – T H E M – O U T

  5. Anyway

    i will give up the debate on abbott whether he meant the house or both

    i dont want to get the focus off how much of a liar abbott is

  6. [Why should Abbott be beholden to Rudd’s preferred debate schedule and format?

    Jam it.]

    It was Rabbott who claimed publically and emphatically that he would debate Rudd everyday and anywhere.

    No pre-conditions were set!

    Everyday and anywhere!

    Don’t see Rudd running with his tail between his legs.

  7. [nothing they are doing will lead to massive land development and releases and massive building programs of housing that this nation needs for affordable market prices in housieng and rent]

    Another one of Colin Barnett’s failures, and Newmans and Giles and Napthine and O’Farrells. Must be all that increased Liberal state debt. Or they’re not really the worker’s friend after all.

    Although given that John Howard oversaw the massive increase in housing unaffordability, perhaps it was his fault.

  10. CC 1746

    I have corrected your suggestions to make economic sense.
    [1. Exclude mining and farming projects from having Diesel tax rebates.
    2. Reduce the government funded infrastructure requirements – inlcuding only requiring one form of project funding – the developers.
    3. Significant new tax penalties for multi national companies avoiding paying tax through foreign tax havens.
    4. Replace the piecemeal and fragmented company tax laws – Set up simple rules so that all profit is taxed equally, regardless of what industry it was produced in. Then we will get real competition as to where investment dollars should go.

    There’s plenty of things they could do to make us much less weak to large companies.]

    Seriously, the mining industry is 80% foreign owned, and we have among the lowest mining taxes and royalties in the world. Norway has saved $600 billion from north sea oil. We have had an even bigger bonanza, and saved barely $70 billion.

  11. KICK-THEM-OUT

    You can sort of see why Rudd would want to give Murdoch the Australian overseas service.

    You know it makes sense.

  14. FarQU @1757 – it is the ALP and Greens dominated local councils that have throttled land development and releases across the nation with their planning laws.

    The ALP are supposedly the friends of the weak, downtrodden and poor but do nothing to generate cheap affordable land releases – this is complete idiocy in one of the biggest countries in the world – so much effing land and so many effing NIMBYs stopping it being developed.

  21. CC

    Continually opening “fresh fields” for developers to make profits is not the answer that some suppose. It also builds suburbs farther and farther from workplaces and adds to travelling time, expense and marriage stress.

  24. MY SAY

    I was a bit puzzled, too. About the date, I mean. The site started earlier, but it misses today’s point in that sense.

    I have no idea how to suggest a renaming. The date detracts.

    I am not so au fait with facebook.

  25. Rudd is getting exposure, he must, he’s in an election campaign.

    He should tell Rupert Murdoch to go and eat shit and die!

  27. I can see why some Labor people are interested in attacking Burke. She is being honest. She has integrity. She is respectful of others. She is committed to her values and to her principles.

    Can’t have that sort of rubbish in the Labor Party: unhelpful!

  32. z

    ‘Anna has her opinion, no different to any other.’

    You can’t really believe that when it is quite obvious that some pollies don’t have an opinion they are willing to hold to if it stands in the way of political power.

  33. The owners editor and journalists at The Daily Telegraph demonstrating to Australia that they are nothing more than Murdoch’s daily toe rag.

    Hard to imagine a better way to junk your own paper, render it worthless as a source of news or opinion than what these people are doing to it.

    So for direction on their Rudd hate campaign they bought out that ‘American Murdoch shit rag’ whose moral standing wouldn’t reach to the level of a by a fly-blown sheep’s arse.

    The Daily Telegraph has been caught out performing bestiality in the public space and thought it should be OK.

    So journalists at The Daily Telegraph, can you still hold your head high? Well possibly high enough lick that sheep’s arse maybe.

  34. Zoidy @1762 – renewable energy is fine as long as it is self-supporting and market competitive and isn’t subsidised at the cost of more efficient and effective energy sources.

  36. CC, the problem is we build our cities in the wrong places. We should keep fertile, wet areas for farming and build our cities in the desert ;).

  37. Speaking of Jaymes Diaz, the Liberal hopeful for Greenway

    [Councillor Jess Diaz is also voting to destroy the lives of residents by forcefully removing them. Jess Diaz is the father of Jaymes Diaz, the Liberal Federal Candidate for Greenway, the country’s most marginal seat.

    These residents who face forced eviction are part of Jaymes Diaz’s electorate. It seems a bit hypocritical that Jaymes is hoping to represent these people in Federal parliament while his father is making every effort to throw them out of their homes and onto the street. Jaymes likes to claim he and his family care for the community, but given his father’s actions on council I fear he is being a bit Liberal with the truth.]

    http://wixxyleaks.com/2013/04/18/no-shelter/

  38. @bw/1783

    I know it’s a shock to the system for you…. But Yeah.

    Just because I don’t like some other’s opinion of theirs don’t mean I have to like it.

    I know who you are referring to.

  39. It’s ground hog day….2007 all over again.
    I’ll get the gist of everything going on via PB…it’s the only way I’ll survive the idiocy that is the MSM (including the frickin’ ABC)….I saw an absolutely scandalously biased story on Tasmanian ABC about the NBN that has left me bereft.
    Best I avoid everything between now and Sept 7 except PB.

  40. TP

    I am offended, like so many people who support the Labor Party, offended by the campaign News Ltd have conducted for the Coalition since 2010.

    I am very offended by the front page of todays Daily Fucking Disease!

  41. “Why should Abbott be beholden to Rudd’s preferred debate schedule and format?

    Jam it.”

    Becuase, he either wants to be PM or he doesn’t.

    Which is it crank, does Tony want our vote or not ?

  42. [ it is the ALP and Greens dominated local councils that have throttled land development and releases across the nation with their planning laws.]

    Our council and Brisbane City council were and are rife with Liberal infestations.

    Newman was Brisbane City Mayor.

  43. In response to Murdoch’s disgusting media outlets, why not start a campaign to get people to stop using Murdoch products. There are many ALP and Greens supporters who use his products e.g. Foxtel. The impact of even a 5% reduction would be significant

  46. [I can see why some Labor people are interested in attacking Burke. She is being honest. She has integrity. She is respectful of others. She is committed to her values and to her principles.]
    As I said in an earlier post, AB put in a strong performance at the forum.

    Consequently, I am now reconsidering my informal vote, as my preference to her above the Lib candidate, would demonstrate my support for her as an individual who has taken a principled stand.

  49. [She is committed to her values and to her principles.]

    Actually committing to her values and principles would mean she’d walk from the party and run as an independent.

  50. Everybody should be offended at The Daily Telegraph headline today, no matter their political leaning.

    But at least everybody now knows that they are in bed with Abbott and Murdoch with murdoch holding the whip and ky gel.

    Was it them that ran the headline ‘does this man care’ with a picture of Glen Stevens… (because they put rates up during the 2007 election campaign)?

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