As talk firms of a September 7 election, we review another two seats which might form part of a hypothetical Labor majority, being conservative marginals in the relatively promising states of Western Australia and Queensland.
Swan (Liberal 2.5%)
The perennially tight marginal seat of Swan covers areas of inner Perth bounded to the north by the Swan River and the west and south by the Canning River. It extends from South Perth and Como north-eastwards through Victoria Park to Belmont, and south-eastwards through Bentley to Cannington. There is a division in the electorate between the affluent and Liberal-voting west and lower-income Labor-voting east, reflected in the corresponding state seats of South Perth and Victoria Park which are respectively safe for Liberal and Labor. The combination of the two areas has left the federal electorate finely poised, being decided by margins of 164 votes in 2007, 104 votes in 2004 and 294 votes in 1993.
Swan in its present form is unrecognisable as the seat that was created at federation, which covered the state’s non-metropolitan south-west. The seat’s inaugural member was John Forrest, explorer, colonial Premier, federation founding father and senior minister in early non-Labor governnments. The electorate was drawn into the metropolitan area when parliament was enlarged in 1949, at which point it continued to cover the eastern suburbs as far north as Midland. Labor only intermittently held the seat until 1969 when it was won by Adrian Bennett, who retained it until his defeat in 1975 by John Martyr.
Swan returned to the Labor fold in 1980 with the election of 32-year-old Kim Beazley Jr, future party leader and son of the Whitlam government Education Minister and long-serving Fremantle MP Kim Beazley Sr. Beazley strengthened his hold on the seat with consecutive swings of 8.1% and 8.6% in 1980 and 1983, but the expansion of parliament in 1984 cut his margin by 4.1% by transferring inner eastern suburbs around Bassendean to Perth. A sharp swing at the 1990 election further pared back Beazley’s margin, and he began to cast around for a safer seat after surviving the 1993 election by 294 votes. A safety hatch opened when Wendy Fatin retired in the somewhat safer seat of Brand along Perth’s coastal southern suburbs at the 1996 election, which Beazley was nonetheless able to retain by just 387 votes.
Swan meanwhile fell to Liberal candidate Don Randall, who was tipped out by a 6.4% swing in 1998 before returning at the 2001 election in his present capacity as member for Canning. The new Labor member for Swan was former farmer and prison officer Kim Wilkie, who barely survived a poor performance by Labor in Perth at the 2004 election despite a disastrous campaign for his Liberal opponent Andrew Murfin. A correction after the Liberals’ under-performance in 2004 presumably explains the seat bucking the trend of the 2007 election, at which the seat was one of only two in the country to fall to the Liberals, the other being the northern Perth seat of Cowan.
The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Steve Irons, a former WA league footballer and proprietor of an air-conditioning business. Irons’ tiny margin was erased by a 0.4% redistribution shift ahead of the 2010 election, but he retained the seat with a 2.8% swing that was closely in line with the statewide result. Labor’s candidate is John Bissett, deputy mayor of the Town of Victoria Park.
Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%)
Extending along the central Queensland coast from Mackay northwards through the Whitsunday Islands, Bowen and Ayr to southern Townsville, Dawson has had a wild ride after the past two elections, firstly falling to Labor with an epic swing of 13.2% in 2007 before returning to the conservative fold in 2010. The swing on the latter occasion was 5.0%, approximately in line with the statewide result, which rose to double figures in the Whitsunday region booths around Airlie Beach and Proserpine. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, and has consistently been centred on the sugar capital of Mackay. While Mackay has consistently been an area of strength for Labor, the surrounding rural territory has tended to keep the seat in the conservative fold. The only Labor member prior to 2007 was Whitlam government minister Rex Patterson, who won the seat at a by-election in February 1967 and kept a tenuous hold until his defeat in 1975.
The Nationals retained the seat throughout the Hawke-Keating years, despite close calls in 1983 (1.2%) and 1990 (0.1%, or 181 votes). De-Anne Kelly succeeded Ray Braithwaite as the party’s member in 1996, become the first woman ever to represent the party in the House of Representatives. The swing that unseated Kelly in 2007 was one of three double-digit swings to Labor in Queensland at that election, and the only one to strike a sitting member. Labor’s unxpected victor was James Bidgood, a former Mackay councillor noted for linking the global financial crisis to biblical prophecy. Bidgood bowed out after a single term citing health problems, and was succeeded as Labor’s candidate by Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. Brunker however proved unable to hold back a statewide tide at the 2010 election which almost entirely undid the party’s gains of 2007.
Dawson has since been held by George Christensen, a former Mackay councillor and local newspaper publisher who sits in parliament with the Nationals. Christensen suffered an embarrassment during the 2010 campaign with the emergence of newsletters he had written as a university student containing what Tony Abbott conceded were “colourful” views on Jews, gays and women. He has more recently been noted for his hostility to Islamic radicalism, having been the only federal MP to attend rallies held in Australia by controversial Dutch politician Geert Wilders. His Labor opponent for the coming election is Bronwyn Taha, a former Proserpine restaurant owner and electorate officer to state Whitsunday MP Jan Jarratt.
Maybe many Green policies can be considered when they can be afforded, or when it is too late.
I cannot come to grips with the concept of just taking all comers to Oz for instance. Yet, this seems to be the inherent position of the current Green’s policy.
Other than countries next door to trouble spots, no country just allows tens of thousands just to flock in with a view to staying.
matt31
I’m going round my place making sure there is nothing green in it 😀
who said abbott was pm material
I never watch abbott but yesterday with sound not up
I was forced to by oh who likes to mumble things about abbott as abbott talks.
I looked at him in the middle pyne on the left who looked
much older and very sombre abbotts mouth opening and shutting in the middle and some unknown on the right
they had deadpan expressions no smile no expression
no personality ..like three dummies in a row
it was as if they where talking machines with no
person inside
very odd
Will be pleasantly surprised if:
1. Newspoll shows Labor at 47% or better
2. The election is on Sept 7
3. Labor comes within coo-ee of winning the election whenever it is called.
One last comment for now 🙂
[Shorten: if you care about education, you vote Labor.]
Really, really dumb.
How many millions vote for the Coalition? How many care about education? To suggest that Coalition voters do not care about education is not a sensible strategy imo.
Centre
‘matt31
I’m going round my place making sure there is nothing green in it’
There is nothing wrong with being green. There is everything wrong with the Trots comrades using the environmental party as a front organisation.
It is all about deceit, with the Australian environment paying the price for this particular bit of democracy theft.
Toorak toff
that’s what I would expect all good liberals to think
Public wont be able to process economic figures in a personal way, they will understand that the future may be a bit more risky and require some reliable trustworthy management.
The govt releasing some sobering information might do them some good. Identify’s them as the adults in the room and the people in charge.
Likewise the levy, shows them make a ‘tough’ decision. The public understand and respect that not all things will go their way. So long as the connection between policy and hip pocket is too strong.
Perhaps one of the Labor supporters here can explain why Labor are planning on building YET ANOTHER detention centre on the Australian mainland when all their boatpeople are meant to be going to PNG? Hmmm??
Howard closed about 6 detention centres on the mainland after introducing the highly successful Pacific Solution, why are Labor opening up detention centres and not closing them if they think their plan will work, or is this just another pre-election con by the Labor Party and they are going to go soft again if they win?
How many millions vote for the Coalition? How many care about education? To suggest that Coalition voters do not care about education is not a sensible strategy imo.
=========================================================
well if they really care about their children of course they will vote labor
in your wildest dreams do u think abbott would honour what he says, from what I read this morning by a education rep, posted here his guarantee is very wishy whashy
like everything about the liberals
Peg giving shorten advice 😯
[It is implicit in their suite of asylum seeker policies.]
No it isn’t. The one ground on which I do NOT oppose unauthorised boat arrivals is that “Australia is full.” From a demographic point of view, 45,000 in six years is trivial. It could be ten times that many and not matter much. So far as I know the Greens argue that Australia could keep its population small, so as not to upset the spotted quolls. The main advocates of “Big Australia” apart from Rudd are the Liberals, with their natalist policies like the baby bonus. (I think this reflects Santamarian influence.)
I’ve got something a blue green in colour, I don’t know whether to keep it?
No, no chances it goes 😆
Thomas that was my feel on yesterday
bowen looked very relaxed and confident and got the message across.
but have the media explained the levy.
Took one last look lol
[There is everything wrong with the Trots comrades using the environmental party as a front organisation.]
I have yet to meet a Greens Trot in my neck of the woods.
The Greens Party are more than an environmental Party. If it was exclusively so, I would not have become a member.
Is the ALP a front for the Liberals? 😉
Sean Tisme
Just wants the election over and labor to win government , so he can be assured he will be getting the nbn
Sean – why does Morrison need to employ his mates at Toll to build tent cities if he’s going to stop the boats?
My say – Bowen looked relaxed for sure. But the figures will alarm a lot of people, let’s face it.
Not at all, my say. Bowen’s announcement plus Murdoch’s spin amounts to a massive negative for Labor.
Labor is down two seats (the Independents’) even before we start. Plus Tasmania is tiger country.
Remember when Kinnock looked a monty to win. He failed and the Murdoch mob boasted “It was The Sun wot done it!”
If Rudd can hold it to a modest loss in the Reps and avoid a catastrophe in the Senate, he will have done well.
Can’t see anything wrong with Shorten’s statement, BTW.
@TT 254
Unfortunately I agree. I think we will look back on yesterday as the day the Government’s fate was sealed. Unfortunately the media/Coalition narrative on this will strike a cord in the electorate, even if most of it is based on rubbish.
Not that the Government could have avoided getting all of this out there, it would have come out in PEFO anyway.
I am inclined to think that many voters will appreciate the honesty of the state of the budget?
gloryc
You will not get a reply from Tisme to your post at 267!
Centre – people will appreciate the honesty but they won’t like the message.
this is an old story but in the hard tree copy to day has
more legs, Mike Kelly
was down a few weeks ago,, so its good for Denison,
re Jane Austin
the company is in denison
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Defence plan backed Tasmania News – The Mercury – The Voice of …
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Jul 10, 2013 – Defence plan backed THE Federal Government is backing plans to develop Hobart’s Prince of Wales Bay as a defence industry precinct.
positive news for the tasmanian shipbuilding industry – Carol Brown
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May 10, 2013 – The Tasmanian shipbuilding industry has received positive news from the meeting of a delegation with the Minister for Defence Materiel Dr …
History of Sydney – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
re seems to be verification of this so hopefuly the gov have got in first before liberal
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Toorak Toff
Posted Saturday, August 3, 2013 at 12:18 pm | PERMALINK
Labor is down two seats (the Independents’) even before we start. Plus Tasmania is tiger country.
———
not correct , its even at this point
if you goign to give new england and lyne to coalition
labor is already on 74 seats
Melbourne and denison are no indepeendent certainties
and the coaliton will likely lose seats in qld
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/08/03/384863_tasmania-news.html
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but this is also in Denison and effect south aust,
this has been the main stay of workers here since before I was born
use to be called the zinc works
lets hope all goes well for both our states
gloryc
Well they, the voters, need to realise that we are experiencing the effects of the GFC.
The problem is with revenues NOT government fiscal policy!
Rudd is a giant fraud trying to con the Australian people through the election.
He promises to send all boatpeople to PNG…. while secretly building a new detention centre here in Australia(wonder what that is for?)
He promised to take over the NSW Labor Party, yet Obeid’s good mates Robertson and Sam Dastayari are still in charge, with Obeid saying they wore the carpet out in his office.
He promised to be fiscally conservative, meanwhile the budget has blown out to a $30 Billion dollar deficit.
He promised to scrap the Carbon Tax to save households $380 a YEAR, yet the budget papers claim within a few years the Carbon Tax will be $38 a Ton
Rudd is a charlatan, a megalomaniac, a narcissist and a class A conjob trying to fool the Australian people that he’s a “New Kev” in charge of a “New Labor”.. but it’s all bullshit a massive illusion and just like Peter Garret let out of the bag before the 2007 election “We’ll just change it all when we get in”
And that’s Rudds game plan… everything he says he will do pre-election is not worth the paper it is written on and he’ll just “change it all” if he gets in and then it will be back to the Kev and Labor the Socialists of old
people over excited about the economic data and its voting effect. The public gave Rudd Labor #1 the big tick on the GFC.
And the data will have come out anyway. Time for a debate on Debt and Deficit Tony.
Labor will own the economic debate.
people over excited about the economic data and its voting effect. The public gave Rudd Labor #1 the big tick on the GFC.
And the data will have come out anyway. Time for a debate on Debt and Deficit Tony.
Labor will own the economic debate.
If Rudd doesn’t announce an election for Sept 7, the media will simply say he changed his mind because of bad polling. They can never be wrong.
[Rudd is a giant fraud trying to con the Australian people through the election.
He promises to send all boatpeople to PNG…. while secretly building a new detention centre here in Australia(wonder what that is for?)
He promised to take over the NSW Labor Party, yet Obeid’s good mates Robertson and Sam Dastayari are still in charge, with Obeid saying they wore the carpet out in his office.
He promised to be fiscally conservative, meanwhile the budget has blown out to a $30 Billion dollar deficit.
He promised to scrap the Carbon Tax to save households $380 a YEAR, yet the budget papers claim within a few years the Carbon Tax will be $38 a Ton
Rudd is a charlatan, a megalomaniac, a narcissist and a class A conjob trying to fool the Australian people that he’s a “New Kev” in charge of a “New Labor”.. but it’s all bullshit a massive illusion and just like Peter Garret let out of the bag before the 2007 election “We’ll just change it all when we get in”
And that’s Rudds game plan… everything he says he will do pre-election is not worth the paper it is written on and he’ll just “change it all” if he gets in and then it will be back to the Kev and Labor the Socialists of old]
And after all that… It’s still 50-50.
It must keep you up nights, Sean.
Tisme
The election is between the very prime ministerial Rudd with sound policies, one which your bloke has just adopted, and good economic management…versus…a shaven monkey in a blue tie and suit!
Let’s hope the voters see it that way 😎
TP
[Labor will own the economic debate]
Labor own the economic facts, but they don’t – and won’t – own the economic debate.
People will give Labor another term based on Rudd’s popularity and education, not because they think they can seamlessly manage the economy.
Hi psephos if you are still around.
Do you have any sources on Santa’s supposed personal relationship with Ngo Dinh Diem?
Well of course the one positive for Labor is that it’s Rudd v Abbott.
Labor will own the economic debate
Labor can and must win on every issue.
*catch u later
its on page 6 here half a page
thousands to lose jobs the head line
unemployment will rise to 6.25
===================================================
so falling demand from china
I remember mr rudd last time around saying the boom cannot last for ever but
rising to 6,25 from now
what would that figure be then around about,re job loses
head line is thousand to lose jobs
but on the first page here is a summit being held to get young people in to work and lots of positive stories
so that’s the first three page,
also the ferry strike
also boosting apprenticeships,
we are now having a skills shortage.
so work that out, I can t
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better the treasuer u know than the one you don’t knw
would abbott inspire any one , to feel save he could look after your money
I don’t think so
and now that joe is thin , he does nt look as jolly and happy
looks very unwell since his operation,
I said page 6 as I actuly missed it,, OH loves his sat, paper for the car section.
toorak
chin up. 52+ for labor end of day and sweetest of …
nothing else is good
page Nine is ABBOTT FLIP ON SCHOOL REFORMS
that’s half a page to
[Well of course the one positive for Labor is that it’s Rudd v Abbott.]
That might actually be the reason behind the date being 7 September (if the reports are true). Avoid Turnbull momentum.
This government is quite vulnerable but Abbott might not be able to seal the deal. Avoid letting the Coalition make the call.
[Do you have any sources on Santa’s supposed personal relationship with Ngo Dinh Diem?]
No, I don’t have that kind of stuff anymore.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalition-under-attack-over-70-billion-black-hole-20130803-2r5sr.html
$70 Billion black hole in Coalition costings about o be announced by Wong apparently!
[$70 Billion black hole in Coalition costings about o be announced by Wong apparently!]
Never hurts to restate these things. I would think the hole is bigger now that Abbott is committed to Gonski spending but no revenue or savings to pay for it.
Mod Lib
Hockey and Robb already admitted they have a 70 billion + blackhole
[$70 Billion black hole in Coalition costings about o be announced by Wong apparently!]
I’d be surprised if it isn’t higher.
Another major Oz fossil “dig”, this one in SA Earth’s oldest animal ecosystem held in fossils at Nilpena Station in SA outback
A very interesting article on the site, its history, discovery & importance; which serves as a promo for Landline this Sunday at noon on ABC 1