As talk firms of a September 7 election, we review another two seats which might form part of a hypothetical Labor majority, being conservative marginals in the relatively promising states of Western Australia and Queensland.
Swan (Liberal 2.5%)
The perennially tight marginal seat of Swan covers areas of inner Perth bounded to the north by the Swan River and the west and south by the Canning River. It extends from South Perth and Como north-eastwards through Victoria Park to Belmont, and south-eastwards through Bentley to Cannington. There is a division in the electorate between the affluent and Liberal-voting west and lower-income Labor-voting east, reflected in the corresponding state seats of South Perth and Victoria Park which are respectively safe for Liberal and Labor. The combination of the two areas has left the federal electorate finely poised, being decided by margins of 164 votes in 2007, 104 votes in 2004 and 294 votes in 1993.
Swan in its present form is unrecognisable as the seat that was created at federation, which covered the state’s non-metropolitan south-west. The seat’s inaugural member was John Forrest, explorer, colonial Premier, federation founding father and senior minister in early non-Labor governnments. The electorate was drawn into the metropolitan area when parliament was enlarged in 1949, at which point it continued to cover the eastern suburbs as far north as Midland. Labor only intermittently held the seat until 1969 when it was won by Adrian Bennett, who retained it until his defeat in 1975 by John Martyr.
Swan returned to the Labor fold in 1980 with the election of 32-year-old Kim Beazley Jr, future party leader and son of the Whitlam government Education Minister and long-serving Fremantle MP Kim Beazley Sr. Beazley strengthened his hold on the seat with consecutive swings of 8.1% and 8.6% in 1980 and 1983, but the expansion of parliament in 1984 cut his margin by 4.1% by transferring inner eastern suburbs around Bassendean to Perth. A sharp swing at the 1990 election further pared back Beazley’s margin, and he began to cast around for a safer seat after surviving the 1993 election by 294 votes. A safety hatch opened when Wendy Fatin retired in the somewhat safer seat of Brand along Perth’s coastal southern suburbs at the 1996 election, which Beazley was nonetheless able to retain by just 387 votes.
Swan meanwhile fell to Liberal candidate Don Randall, who was tipped out by a 6.4% swing in 1998 before returning at the 2001 election in his present capacity as member for Canning. The new Labor member for Swan was former farmer and prison officer Kim Wilkie, who barely survived a poor performance by Labor in Perth at the 2004 election despite a disastrous campaign for his Liberal opponent Andrew Murfin. A correction after the Liberals’ under-performance in 2004 presumably explains the seat bucking the trend of the 2007 election, at which the seat was one of only two in the country to fall to the Liberals, the other being the northern Perth seat of Cowan.
The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Steve Irons, a former WA league footballer and proprietor of an air-conditioning business. Irons’ tiny margin was erased by a 0.4% redistribution shift ahead of the 2010 election, but he retained the seat with a 2.8% swing that was closely in line with the statewide result. Labor’s candidate is John Bissett, deputy mayor of the Town of Victoria Park.
Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%)
Extending along the central Queensland coast from Mackay northwards through the Whitsunday Islands, Bowen and Ayr to southern Townsville, Dawson has had a wild ride after the past two elections, firstly falling to Labor with an epic swing of 13.2% in 2007 before returning to the conservative fold in 2010. The swing on the latter occasion was 5.0%, approximately in line with the statewide result, which rose to double figures in the Whitsunday region booths around Airlie Beach and Proserpine. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, and has consistently been centred on the sugar capital of Mackay. While Mackay has consistently been an area of strength for Labor, the surrounding rural territory has tended to keep the seat in the conservative fold. The only Labor member prior to 2007 was Whitlam government minister Rex Patterson, who won the seat at a by-election in February 1967 and kept a tenuous hold until his defeat in 1975.
The Nationals retained the seat throughout the Hawke-Keating years, despite close calls in 1983 (1.2%) and 1990 (0.1%, or 181 votes). De-Anne Kelly succeeded Ray Braithwaite as the party’s member in 1996, become the first woman ever to represent the party in the House of Representatives. The swing that unseated Kelly in 2007 was one of three double-digit swings to Labor in Queensland at that election, and the only one to strike a sitting member. Labor’s unxpected victor was James Bidgood, a former Mackay councillor noted for linking the global financial crisis to biblical prophecy. Bidgood bowed out after a single term citing health problems, and was succeeded as Labor’s candidate by Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. Brunker however proved unable to hold back a statewide tide at the 2010 election which almost entirely undid the party’s gains of 2007.
Dawson has since been held by George Christensen, a former Mackay councillor and local newspaper publisher who sits in parliament with the Nationals. Christensen suffered an embarrassment during the 2010 campaign with the emergence of newsletters he had written as a university student containing what Tony Abbott conceded were “colourful” views on Jews, gays and women. He has more recently been noted for his hostility to Islamic radicalism, having been the only federal MP to attend rallies held in Australia by controversial Dutch politician Geert Wilders. His Labor opponent for the coming election is Bronwyn Taha, a former Proserpine restaurant owner and electorate officer to state Whitsunday MP Jan Jarratt.
My #199 is for Boerwar
Hockey repeating the stump speech, including scrapping the carbon tax.
confessions
It would help greatly if Hockey used grey for men. 😀
They hope that by shouting compassion unicorn loud enough and often enough people will not actually look at the full suite of Greens policies.
If you want a light-hearted moment during the coming election period, fraught with lies, dishonesty and a lack of integrity, I suggest you glance at the Greens policies.
Some of them are genuinely funny.
[They hope that by shouting unicorn loud enough and often enough people will not actually look at the Greens policies.]
Exactly.
[I just wish the Greens would stop pretending to be an environmental party.
Agreed. You hardly ever hear them talking about environment these days.]
They have become little more than a front for the human traffickers. It would be interesting to know how much money they get from the human trafficking industry.
gc
I am not listening to Hockey, but me thinks the coalition are trying so hard to reset the agenda and are failing badly
v
I did. Sorry Tricot. Sorry Triton. My bad.
[triton @ 182, 192
Interesting posts.]
I am always delighted to take the credit for Tricot’s insights and hard work.
Which Chinese candidate was Hockey referring to when he said the Liberals would have the first Chinese HoR member after this election?
The only thing the Greens should be shouting is at protest rallies in parks.
They don’t belong in a parliament.
Hockey suggesting it is hypocrisy that Labor are investing in expansion of asylum seeker detention facilities but suggest the boats will stop.
No journo questions asking why the Coalition are investing in expansion of asylum seeker detention facilities but the boats will stop.
They have a candidate called Lin somewhere, and two Nguyens. Labor has Jason Li.
Regarding the question of what is regarded as PM material, this guy made it:
http://www.theage.com.au/ftimages/2007/11/23/1195753287679.html
Hockey suggesting the mining boom would not have ended under the Coalition. Classic.
David Lin in Rankin.
P
What I want is for the Greens to be honest about their desire for a Big Australia with all the concomitant disastrous consequences for long-term sustainability.
I see zero, nil, zilch, de nada public communications from the Greens on this topic.
This does not surprise me. The only difference between the Trots and the Cappos is how they want to share out the consequences of running our planet down the toilet.
[why on earth mention at levy on savings at this point? what might be mute economic sense is electoral nonsense at present … all in name of financial rectitude mythology … election very much governments to lose]
Bullshite! You must live on a desert island – or be very young – not to know about Bank guarantees
As GFC collapse of USA & European economies showed, safeguarding banks & their clients’ deposits, mortgages etc by Bank Guarantees, thereby allowing usual banking business, and business they support through loans, mortgages etc to continue, are the best safeguards against economic collapse.
During the GFC, Oz’s Government guaranteed bank deposits etc, heading off “runs on banks” that collapsed so many US & European economies. To do so, it depended on revenues & its huge superannuation “Money Bins” to back loans that shored-up banks, construction & other businesses operating – loans which, because they were backed by one of the developed world’s few healthy economies, were much cheaper than they would have been had Oz not had the resources to do so.
When Abbott addressed UK Tory Party & business gatherings in London, he raved about Australia’s wonderful high-performing economy (there are videos as well as press reports available to confirm this) saying the opposite of what he does here in Australia. Hockey did a similar hypocritical “turn”, though not so fulsomely, in the US – reported, if memory serves me correctly, in Bloomberg & well posted & discussed on PB.
In 2008, the Oz government guaranteed banks, risking “the Public Purse” because Banks did not have their own guarantees in place. Banks are privately-owned, hugely profitable business & should fund their own guarantees.
Should a later government have to do again what Rudd & Swan did in 2008 to shore-up the national economy, then accumulated levy funds can again be used to guarantee banks – although Banks will probably still need a government guarantee to back them.
IOW, the Bank Levy makes perfect, even somewhat neocon, sense, as Liberal economic/ financial experts well know.
Liberals are Liars. Just reading the above proves that!
I would now rate David Lin’s chances of winning Rankin as much the same as Jason Li’s chances of winning Bennelong: less than 50%.
Thanks Psephos. It would be the candidate in Rankin.
Shorten coming up on ABC24
Boerwar,
Why don’t you join the Greens Party and work within the party for the changes that you think need to happen?
Peg @ 222
My advice to Boerwar would be take a short cut and join another party 😀
P
‘Boerwar,
Why don’t you join the Greens Party and work within the party for the changes that you think need to happen?’
I don’t waste my time arguing about useless and counter-productive policies with Trots. It is the only thing they are good at.
Boer,
None of the parties has a population policy. But if you rank them in order of carbon and other footprint per person, the differences are clear.
Kevin wants a bigger population by breeding more. The Libs evidently want a bigger population by importing migrants rather than actually spending anything on schools/training. And the Greens want a bigger population by giving refuge to people. Again, which do you prefer?
One of the crazy things about this phony debate is how many people we’re letting into the country to fill gaps caused by essentially Howards defunding of universities. That migrant intake if halved, would account for a lot lot more boat people than has currently tried to enter.
Its all bogus.
Boerwar,
There you go with your stereotyping again.
Shorten saying Victoria had agreed to sign up to the Better Schools plan this week, but pulled out yesterday.
Besides we are making some progress with the Informal Party.
A policy issue has arisen. Assuming that someone has decided to break the law and vote informal in the privacy of the ballot box, and they decide to list the two front runners as being unfit for prime minister, should they also include Milne in the list of people who are unfit to the prime minister?
Or is Milne so irrelevant in the race for prime ministership that she is unworthy of being listed?
Or might she be fit?
cch
‘Kevin wants a bigger population by breeding more. The Libs evidently want a bigger population by importing migrants rather than actually spending anything on schools/training. And the Greens want a bigger population by giving refuge to people. Again, which do you prefer?’
None of the above. We’ll all be rooned.
Shorten suggesting Napthine has direct pressure for Federal Coalition to hold off on the signup
P
‘Boerwar,
There you go with your stereotyping again.’
I am open to argument here. Name me one thing that Trots are good at, apart from arguing to useless effect?
Ok, Boer,
I’m sure we can all save up and buy you a one way ticket to a destination of your choice.. Texas, maybe? 🙂
[Aidan @apmd 2m
Oh dear RT @BenMcCombe: John Nguyen is a Chinese candidate? He’s Vietnamese @JoeHockey.]
Appears Hockey wasn’t referring to the Liberal candidate in Rankin.
Boer,
On your ballot, you could also list yourself as unfit to vote, or even hold citizenship 🙂
Shorten: if you care about education, you vote Labor.
[The ‘shanty town’ that could be razed for Australia’s refugee plan is a safe community]
Woops! Raze also rase tr.v. razed also rased, raz·ing also ras·ing, raz·es also ras·es
1. To level to the ground; demolish. See Synonyms at ruin.
2. To scrape or shave off.
3. Archaic To erase.
Surely the correct homophone is “raised”:
located or moved above the surround or above the normal position; “a raised design”; “raised eyebrows
This is very strong language from Shorten. I’m not sure that’s a good idea.
I did read some time back it was the chinese community
who voted big time for Maxine
so would nt u think they will vote for one of their own
Triton = you’re welcome!
Boerwar
[I see zero, nil, zilch, de nada public communications from the Greens on this topic.]
😆 According to so many here, Labor apparently has a huge problem getting its message out and much of what is reported by the MSM is unfair and unbiased.
As if a minor party is going to have all its communications and policies broadcasted for public consumption.
c ch
‘Ok, Boer,
I’m sure we can all save up and buy you a one way ticket to a destination of your choice.. Texas, maybe?’
I am in Manila and one of the thing that keeps hitting you in the face here is that democracy thieves do major, long-term damage to the interests of the people, to the interests of the country, and to environmental sustainability.
Australia has already foregone various sustainability options: some biodiversity is already extinct; some is restricted to narrow ranges in national parks; and our ecosystem services have been degraded.
The question is now about how much more degradation a Big Australia will deliver.
[I don’t waste my time arguing about useless and counter-productive policies with Trots. It is the only thing they are good at.]
Um-ahhh, Borewar said “Trots.”
P
Poor old Greens. No-one wants to listen to them telling Australians that they will close down Olympic Dam, close down the air force, close down the coal industry, close down coal seam gas, run the GMO science out of Australia, etc, etc, etc…
Shorten: if Napthine waits for Tony Abbott on education, Victorian parents will be left high and dry.
When did the Greens say they support a Big Australia. I thought that was Rudd’s policy. Rudd I anyway: I don’t think Rudd II has been asked about it yet.
Abc Andrew Green reminds me a bit of Paul Bongiorno in his voice
Boerwar,
Thanks for the chat 😉
Keep up the good work.
Other things to do…
Wow at the anti Greens unhinging going on around here this morning! Just so happens to be the day after Labor’s economic statement, where hidden away in it was an allocation for more detention centres. In other words, an admition that cruel policies towards desperate people fleeing terrible circumstances will not actually deter people from seeking our protection, rendering such policies completely pointless.
It is not the fault of the Greens that Labor have now conceded that their New Guinea solution will not deter people, exactly what the Greens have been saying about the policies of both old parties on this matter all along.
Wouldn’t it be great if Rudd dashed to the lead in the polls on the announcement of the election date in the same way Howard did against Latham in 04.
I’m also hoping this election resembles 1993 where Keating overhauled Hewson.
For some reason, this election reminds me of the Parramatta/Newcastle 2001 grand final. The Coalition are the favourites Parramatta and Labor are Newcastle.
Like Newcastle (who played one of the most perfect first half’s of football ever seen) Labor are going to have to campaign their butt off!
Psephos
It is implicit in their suite of asylum seeker policies. But, as you know, they are notoriously shy about talking about their open-ended policies and their uncapped programs.