Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens, with Morgan finding Labor support coming off a little after successive strong results in previous weeks.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll finds the Labor primary vote slipping three points to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 10.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 41.5%. That translates to 52-48 to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, down slightly from 52.5-47.5 last week. The change is sharper on the generally more useful two-party measure which distributes preferences according to the previous election result, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50.

Essential also finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval, and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue. Labor is favoured by 25% (up eight on mid-June), Coalition by 26% (down 12) and the Greens by 6% (down one). Asylum seeker arrivals are rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most important by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. The poll also has Malcolm Turnbull rated as best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and also includes further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. Lizzie@137

    Put me in the column of “not liking” Neil Diamond.

    I could never understand what the fuss was about him. I find his style grates on me.

    Purely personal taste of course.

  3. Really, the Greens have been played like mugs by the Opposition who have used the Greens’ uncompromising purity of position to their advantage.

  4. Interesting that in Essential’s poll for Liberal leader “Don’t Know” and Someone Else” together beat Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop combined and were only just pipped at the post by Rainman by a few %.

  6. Of course there is the famous Sandy Roberts faux pas at the 1981 Mt Gambier races.

    Sandy was hosting the festivities of the Mt Gambier Cup, live from Glenburnie Raceway on the local station. Guest of honour was 1981 Miss Australia – Leanne Dick.

    Sandy introduced her as Leanne Cock!

  9. zoidlord

    Mind you, it is fair question to ask: When is the corpse of NSW Labor going to be buried and when will some kind of rebirth take place?

  19. Tricot# 161: If the relevant episode of “From the Earth to the Moon ” and my memory are correct, “Sugar Sugar” went into space with Apollo 9 …

  21. MM,

    No wonder all those inter Galctic movies have extra terrestials totally pissed off with Earthians.

  22. DoG Hockey is channelling Sarah Palin.

    [Mr Hockey derided Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s plan to clean up the Labor party through democratic reforms.

    “You can put lipstick on a crocodile but it’s still the same old Labor,” he said.]

  27. I see that the Essendon problem has been solved by Jeff Kennett. He reckons that Demetriou should resign.

    There, fixed.

  29. This really is hypocrisy at its worst – how low will Abbott & Morrison go?

    [TONY Abbott says he wants to stop the boats “to stop the deaths”, declaring that a harrowing image of a 10-week-old asylum-seeker’s coffin underlines the need to break the region’s people-smuggling trade.

    “It was a tragic image, an absolutely tragic image,” the Opposition Leader said of the photograph, carried on The Australian’s front page today.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/image-of-young-asylum-seekers-coffin-another-reminder-of-cost-of-policy-failure/story-fn9hm1gu-1226687560191

  32. Impossible for that ICAC report to have any further negative effect on the NSW Labor opposition. I mean, what’s the worst-case scenario? A vote collapse? Hahaha

    Hockey’s drawing a long bow in trying to tie it back to Rudd and I think even he would recognise it’s a futile tactic.

  33. Boerwar
    I saw your comment from a few hours ago. Thanks.
    I always like to give the “Land of the Free” links to remindus that no matter how mush we grimmace at times, Oz has a lot going for it by comparison

  36. The failure of Pixifotos is Labor’s fault.

    Joe H is really getting to the bottom of the bucket with this one.

    And the business community take this guy seriously?

  39. Three ICAC reports on Wednesday:

    (a) McDonald’s relationship with an accused murderer and admitted killer and Tiffany the sex worker;
    (b) Obeid Roozendaal re a car;
    (c) Obeid, McDonald re a mine.

  40. [Hmmm Fran a Pink Floydian ?

    Oh yes … along with the Moody Blues, Santana, Jimi Hendrix, Led Zeppelin, Eric Clapton, Jeff Beck, Edgar Winter, Jon Mayall, Chic Corea, Leo Kottke, Jethro Tull, Yes …]

    A woman after my own heart.

  41. Yep, so two more polls confirm it is basically 50-50 TPP.

    It’s a cliché, but this will be decided in the marginals.

    The fact that the Taswegians appear to have gone feral against Labor (similar to how the Queenslanders went in 2010) is worrying, but I am not sure how reliable the polling is down there yet.

    For now, we’ll have to defer to local experts such as my say and Kevin B.

  42. One of the journos on insiders was hinting that Obeid will get a slap on the wrist from ICAC, I wonder if he knows or was guessing?

  44. I would also add that I find Bob Dylan to be absolutely painful to listen to. He cannot sing but is a hell of a mumbler.

  45. [Did anyone else see the news that Mick Jagger turned 70 the other day.]

    I did! And I’d thought he was dead…

  46. Just listened to the guy from Galaxy who claims that he ‘does not see much volatility in the vote for Rudd’ and wtte the shift to him looks to be of an enduring nature.

    Next Galaxy about a month from now according to him.

  49. [ Mr Hockey derided Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s plan to clean up the Labor party through democratic reforms.

    “You can put lipstick on a crocodile but it’s still the same old Labor,” he said.]

    Oh dear.

    How embarrassing. The wheels really are starting to fall off the wagon.

  50. Evening all.

    This perfectly sums up the state of play at present wrt boats.

    “Let them all come” is a progressive version of “stop the boats”, a slogan that substitutes emotion for thinking and personal morality for good policy, a phrase that elevates intentions above outcomes. To “let them all come” would be to encourage more asylum seekers to undertake boat trips to reach Australia, knowing they will be resettled here if their request for asylum is granted. The good intention of “let them all come” will lead to the outcome of more drownings.

    For policymakers, more than for most of us, the road to hell is indeed paved with good intentions.

    The progressive response to this criticism is two-fold: either they accuse those claiming concern for drownings of feigning compassion and using it as a figleaf for racism, or they suggest we fly or sail asylum seekers from Indonesia to avoid drownings.

    Most assuredly, many bigots prefer to express concern about drowning rather than openly express their dislike of asylum seekers. But that doesn’t render the argument about trying to stop drownings automatically invalid, even if articulated by someone in bad faith.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/07/29/let-them-all-come-is-stop-the-boats-for-unthinking-progressives/

    We see the very same claims from the unthinking progressives here. And really, it shouldn’t come to their surprise that people aren’t swayed by their arguments when all they do is just call people racist because they want a) a more orderly process for people claiming asylum, and/or b) reducing the risk of boats sinking and people dying.

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