Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens, with Morgan finding Labor support coming off a little after successive strong results in previous weeks.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll finds the Labor primary vote slipping three points to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 10.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 41.5%. That translates to 52-48 to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, down slightly from 52.5-47.5 last week. The change is sharper on the generally more useful two-party measure which distributes preferences according to the previous election result, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50.

Essential also finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval, and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue. Labor is favoured by 25% (up eight on mid-June), Coalition by 26% (down 12) and the Greens by 6% (down one). Asylum seeker arrivals are rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most important by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. The poll also has Malcolm Turnbull rated as best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and also includes further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. I forgot

    LNP policy on industrial relations bought to you by employers unions and major corporations

    LNP environmental policies bought to you by mining, and forestry corporations and land developers

    LNP taxation policies bought to you by major accountancy firms and corporations able to use loopholes to avoid tax

    LNP social policies bought to you by George Pell

  2. [I forgot

    LNP policy on industrial relations bought to you by employers unions and major corporations

    LNP environmental policies bought to you by mining, and forestry corporations and land developers

    LNP taxation policies bought to you by major accountancy firms and corporations able to use loopholes to avoid tax

    LNP social policies bought to you by George Pell]

    ALP Asylum Seeker policies brought to you by the LNP. 🙂

  3. Quick one before I go to catch the plane to Edinburgh
    Note the ABC story is offering the excuse?(reason) for Scott M and Tony Abbott to latch onto,ie they “hitched” a lift to Nauru

  4. [Generally a major policy like that might get a press release, some explanatory documents, a costing, or at the very least, a straight answer on when details might be supplied. There was nothing.

    Reporters not in Nauru were referred to stories published in News Limited publications by reporters invited on the Morrison trip – as if stories generated by third parties were an official record, or a transcript of some kind (an odious reflection, that – journalists are not record keepers or stenographers or megaphones, correct?)]
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jul/30/tony-abbott-nauru-tent-city?CMP=twt_fd

    The penny drops after how many years now? Our press gallery has been behaving like stenographers for so long now that it’s no wonder Morrison’s office thought they could just refer queries to others’ reports.

  5. Unlike the ABC, Fairfax continues to hit hard over Tollgate – its story was updated a short while ago and includes a reader poll:

    [A logistics company that stands to profit from the Coalition’s “tent city” on Nauru funded the trip of its immigration spokesman Scott Morrison and a journalist and photographer from News Corporation to the remote island to announce the plan…

    It is understood Toll Holdings chartered the flight for the Coalition and News Corporation.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalitions-tent-city-trip-funded-by-logistics-company-that-provides-tents-20130730-2qws3.html#ixzz2aWQXdjbZ

    The issue is – who initiated the arrangement for the flight? Was it a generous Toll, Abbott/Morrison or even News Corp. Each of them would have had a different reason for making the flight.

    Maybe Fairfax will search for answers. The ABC is unlikely to do so.

  6. [ALP Asylum Seeker policies brought to you by the LNP. :)]

    I think they both got them from Pauline Hanson and John Pasquirelli.

    vote greens

  7. Hope all the government & LNP apologists aren’t too busy adjusting their moral compasses to err the right to watch the repeat of “Go Back To Where You Came From.”

    Still, I guess the last thing you’d want is truth and insight. It works against the demonization and objectification memes you are supposed to propagate and nurture.

  8. for those wondering about the Michael Smith/2GB orgasmic news announcement….

    Smith has a gig again on 2GB. Talk about deflation.

  9. [Spinach or Broccoli?]

    more the equivalent of lightly steamed fresh asparagus and green beans

    and watermellon – never forget the watermellon.

  10. zoidlord

    [I think that is too much even from you, I think you are just joining in with everyone else now.]

    Haven’t been following recent discussion, but I think with my consistent position on the issue, it should properly be expressed the other way round. 🙂

  11. [George Megalogenis ‏@GMegalogenis 23m
    Why tents? The coalition should send 2000 Campervans to Nauru and save the car industry as well. Or is that Labor’s next move? #BoatChoices]

  12. Now she’s explaining the difference between “tow-backs” and “turn-backs”. I’m glad I’ve got that sorted.

  13. From the link at #1411

    [Former Commonwealth Ombudsman Allan Asher said accepting funding from a company likely to bid for a contract arising from the policy announcement was “entirely inappropriate”.

    “I think at any time of the year that would be a questionable thing, but in the context of elections, it just makes it an entirely inappropriate thing to do,” he said.]

  14. [I’ve never known what a “meme” is. It must be a Trot thing.]

    shit Psephos – you really sound like an ignorant and crusty old tory with that one, or some hillbilly hick saying “sounds alike wan a those eduacat’d city folk thangs. Ah don’ like them eduacat’d city folk”

    It comes from Ricahrd Dawkin’s The Selfish Gene (a great read). see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme

    In the information age, ignorance is a choice.

  15. Psephos

    A ‘meme’ in this context is a confused, incorrect, and unoriginal thought, or known lie, expressed by the ignorant for the ulterior motives of others up to whom they look.

    An example is a old party supporter on PB repeating mindlessly and wrongly, “Asylum seekers who arrive here on boats are illegals.”

  16. Watching Kitchen Confidential with Crabbe and she has Heffernan and Susan Ley on it at the same time.
    After watching it I’m still not sure if they are an item or not. Anyone know?

  17. [“I think at any time of the year that would be a questionable thing, but in the context of elections, it just makes it an entirely inappropriate thing to do,” he said.]

    That’s twice in as many days. First Hockey thinking he can ask state Treasury departments to cost their policies, and now this.

  18. Only an extreme right winger would call the mainstream left “Trots”.

    Adam Carr probably didn’t have the liquid courage to join the Tories like his ancestors.

  19. cud chewer. Ah don’ do them eduacat’d city folk thangs like twitter. life is to short to be a twat (& I waste enough time here anyway)

  20. On twitter

    [Haha.. lyndal to Truss “When did you find out about the Nauru policy?” Truss “I haven’t read the paper today..” Haha WTF #AUSPOL]

  21. The ABC on-line item by Lexi Metherell is a bit mealy mouthed though the facts are there.

    Toll charters planes often. There are some spare seats this time around. Toll invites Morrison and Newscorp minions to hop a ride.

    All so okay according to Lexi as journalists “often accept corporate hospitality”.

    However, it is plain that despite Morrison’s/Abbott’s comments, the trip was paid for by Toll and another news insert suggests “logistics company props up visit…..”.

    Not a good look. Toll, I understand, has a code of conduct for such matters though what it might be is anyone’s guess.

    Doesn’t matter what Toll did but the use of Toll by Morrison at this delicate stage of the election cycle and the Murdoch press going full tilt to support their boy and not telling anyone who paid for them to go over to the island is very naughty.

  22. @sammut fulvio/1436

    They would need to dump more than one dope – since more than one was included in the current debacle 😛

  23. [Psephos
    Posted Tuesday, July 30, 2013 at 7:16 pm | Permalink
    does tent city mean the tories plan to annex Nauru?

    Nauru is already an Australian possession in all but name. It’s a small barren atoll with 9,000 residents, of whom only 800 are employed. The rest live indirectly off Australian aid. It’s economically and socially unviable, and what with climate change and the Nauruans’ appalling state of health, we’ll finish up settling them in Australia eventually.]

    Surely that can’t be true Psephos. I heard Tony Abbott describe it on 3aw this morning as a “nice little island”. A nice chap like him wouldn’t lie about something like that would he?

  24. Asylum Seeker policies:

    LNP’s brought to you by tent manufacturers.

    Green’s brought to you by people smugglers and lawyers.

    ALP’s brought to you by refugees in camps.

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