Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens, with Morgan finding Labor support coming off a little after successive strong results in previous weeks.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll finds the Labor primary vote slipping three points to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 10.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 41.5%. That translates to 52-48 to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, down slightly from 52.5-47.5 last week. The change is sharper on the generally more useful two-party measure which distributes preferences according to the previous election result, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50.

Essential also finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval, and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue. Labor is favoured by 25% (up eight on mid-June), Coalition by 26% (down 12) and the Greens by 6% (down one). Asylum seeker arrivals are rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most important by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. The poll also has Malcolm Turnbull rated as best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and also includes further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 30 of 37
1 … 29 30 31 … 37

  2. I’m not a happy camper about this.

    There are several dirty and shonky elements all wrapped up in one nasty stunt.

    There’s the silence, until too late for the 7pm TV news, of the ABC who were, we presume, at Abbott’s presser and therefore should have known about the Toll question that was asked. Failing that they could have read the SMH et al at around 3PM.
    We here at PB knew before the ABC. Or so they would have us believe.

    There is the willingness of the Libs to get in bed with Toll, or vice versa, and journos really should be asking just who initiated this comfy little arrangement and what was the price.

    There is the non-response by Abbott which shows the usual desire to mislead, evade and in addition that he has no sense of ethics.
    Contrast his response below with the statement of the former ombudsman in #1428 above.
    [“Look, it’s wholly privately funded, and there’s no reason whatsoever why it shouldn’t be funded in that way.”]

    There is Ltd News using words like ‘alleged’ and indulging in ‘he said, she said journalism’ and turning it into a partisan squabble when its really about a lack of ethics on the part of the Libs and lets not forget their transparent role as the purveyors of COALition policy.

    Not happy Tony .. and Mark.

  3. Scott’s press release:

    [If elected, the Coalition will begin with an immediate, short and medium term, increase in accommodation facilities. The first step will quickly increase capacity at Nauru by 2,000 places in tented accommodation. More steps will follow.

    The expanded capacity on Nauru is part of our long-standing commitment to genuine offshore processing and will complement the expansion of processing capacity on Manus Island to ensure we finally have genuine offshore processing.]
    http://www.scottmorrison.com.au/info/pressrelease.aspx?id=1160

    A tacit admission they are expecting that boats won’t be stopped?

    Have they been asked about this? I haven’t seen any reporting of it.

  4. Calling someone who isn’t a Trotskyist a ‘trot’ is a bit like calling a member of the labor right a ‘lib’ or ‘fascist’. I’ll wear the misnomer ‘Trot’ with pride (I was called a trot in the 1980s as labor lurched right) – Mal Fraser would now be a ‘trot’ in psephos’ definition of left, centre and right, so it is only fair that someone with whitlamite and earlier labor values should be called a trot.

    I think Dawkins definition of a meme has shifted (in a meme-like way), and the term is now applied to oft repeated shite – rather than an idea or behaviour that strengthens a culture by becoming the ‘norm’. This new meme isn’t a ‘trot’ thing – it is a spin doctor thing – the domain of the NSW Labor Right and Team Abbott.

  5. [A tacit admission they are expecting that boats won’t be stopped?]
    EXACTLY!

    [Have they been asked about this? I haven’t seen any reporting of it.]
    Probably not!

  6. [Calling someone who isn’t a Trotskyist a ‘trot’ is a bit like calling a member of the labor right a ‘lib’ or ‘fascist’. ]

    As it happens, on this occasion I didn’t call anyone in particular a Trot. I have in the past called JV one, because I believe he is one. He certainly uses all their lines (or memes).

  8. fredex:

    Yes, I share your concern about all this.

    It makes me wonder what other cosy little deals the opposition have cooked and not declared with would-be contractors all because of the widespread expectation that they were coasting into govt.

  9. The Toll PR person speaks:

    [Toll Group spokesman Christopher Whitefield confirmed the company provided Mr Morrison with transport to the island.

    “We have been invited by both the government and the opposition to work on potential logistics solutions on the asylum seeker issue,” Mr Whitefield said.

    “Part of this involved sending some senior executives to Nauru to assess the situation on the ground.

    “There were spare seats available, which were offered to the shadow minister.

    “There was no significant extra cost to allow non-Toll passengers on the trip.”]

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/07/30/17/27/coalition-s-nauru-trip-funded-by-company-with-interest-in-policy

    So Toll is quite happy to show a potential client what they have to offer (much like a real estate agent I suppose).

    Also from this we assume Morrison came to an arrangement with News Corp to come on the plane.

    Did Abbott/Morrison discuss the tent city idea with Toll before the flight?

    Why didn’t Abbott tell reporters what Toll has now said?

    Many unanswered questions…

  11. Cit

    Issue being “Trip provided by a LNP backer” quote…how do Toll feel about being outed.
    How do the gov feel about working with the enemy

  12. [Craig Emerson MP ‏@CraigEmersonMP 1h
    Round Up the Usual Suspects from Davos World Economic Forum 1987. Who are they? #emmosquiz #auspol pic.twitter.com/Bntv2uI4gR ]

    I can get Emmo, Hawkie and Hazel, and that’s it.

  13. Also, it’s not correct to equate “Trot” with “fascist.” I think Trots are wrong and silly, but I don’t for a moment morally compare them with fascists. Several of my oldest and dearest friends are or have been members of Trot groups. We can agree to disagree. I could never be friends with someone who espoused fascist views.

  16. I was unaware of the word “meme”. Sounds like a bit of a wank to me. What’s wrong with words like “fad” or “trend” in relation to some usages for this new poncy word.

  18. http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/07/30/17/27/coalition-s-nauru-trip-funded-by-company-with-interest-in-policy

    “Opposition leader Tony Abbott said he understood the trip was “wholly privately funded” and a spokesman for Mr Morrison’s office said he would continue to make relevant declarations in his register of interest.”

    “There was no significant extra cost to allow non-Toll passengers on the trip.”

    Still conflict of interest.

  20. I hate that we are all focused on fucking boats. abbott is winning by keeping attention on this. labor and the Greens need to hammer hard the message that abbott wants to stay on this issue, wants boats to keep coming, and wants people to keep drowning so he can hide the fact that HE HAS NO POLICIES. His Naru blunder sets him up for a Labor attack add saying “Mr Abbott says he’ll stop the boats, but has voted against government policies to set up regional off-shore processing centres. He say’s he’ll stop the boats, but is planning to pay billions to set up a flimsy tent ghetto for new arrivals. That doesn’t add up Mr Abbott” and from the greens “Mr Abbott wants you to be scared about refugees coming on boats. Over 95% of boat arrivals have been found to be genuine refugees fleeing persecution or death in their own countries. Many have been tortured, raped, beaten and seen their loved ones raped and killed before their eyes. Mr Abbott wants you to focus on boats because he has no plans for the future. He has no viable plans to reduce pollution. He has no plans to invest in education and infrastructure. All he has is slogans and saying ‘NO’ to anything new – and boats. Don’t be fooled. Vote Greens”

  21. [I was unaware of the word “meme”. Sounds like a bit of a wank to me. What’s wrong with words like “fad” or “trend” in relation to some usages for this new poncy word.]
    Because memes can change over time like genes.

    That’s what Dawkins chose a word that was almost the same as the word gene.

  22. Okay, I buy, partly, from Toll, “Look we were just offering a hop over to the island with some spare seats” line, but who invited the OO?

    And, why weren’t the other news organisation invited?

    Headlines in today’s OO clearly shows the purpose of the visit – emblazoned Page 1 about tent ‘policy’.

    Then there is the spin-off to the ABC in the morning.

    Oh how cosy.

  23. But, ShowsOn, trends and fads evolve over time, as well don’t they? I just can’t see the point of this new word. I realise there are other applications than the idea of a trend or a fad, but there are plenty of other existing words that do the job. In the Internet age, there is a great tendency, I feel, to reinvent the wheel.

  25. No mention of Tollgate on ABC Perth news. That is just lazy given the new facts have been in the public domain for many hours now.

  27. Psephos – I was saying it is as wrong to call a non-Trotskyist a ‘trot’ as would be to call a labor right winger a ‘fascist’ – it’s just as lazy, and potentially offensive (Trotsky was no saint – but was deified simply because he wasn’t Stalin/was killed by stalin). I wasn’t calling you or ‘trots’ fascists, but was pointing out the laziness and stupidity of calling someone left of Bob Hawke a ‘trot’.

  29. I wouldn’t mind a free trip to Nauru, or anywhere else, if you’ve got a spare seat and you’re going there anyway, Mr Whitefield.

    I mean, it’s just a thing you do, isn’t it, its not like you expect anything in return?

  31. Richard Dawkins coined the term ‘meme’ to denote a sort of cultural equivalent of a gene – ideas, patterns if thought and ways of looking at the world that are propagated through a society. It can be related to the idea of ‘framing’. Memes can be noble, sinister or trivial. Fads and urban myths are examples. Spin doctors try to create and use them. Examples from the Coalition include ‘chaos on our borders’, the depredations wrought by the. ‘Carbon Tax’ and incendiary pink batts.

  32. [new words are necessary for the new people. Old farts like us have hogged all the old words]
    Actually new words normally describe new things, or describe old things in new ways that create new insights.

  33. Kinkajou

    New words are necessary when there is something genuinely new to describe.

    Example: “bicycle”. Before they existed, there was no need for this word.

    Or: “locomotive” – same thing.

    What is new about this notion of a “meme”? As far as I can tell, ideas, styles and behaviours – to cite some of the examples mentioned in the Wiki definition – had already been transmitted through the culture from person to person before the Internet, and before Richard Dawkins. Why pretend this is new? Is that somehow more exciting?

  34. [It’s on their website though:]

    If it’s on their website, and if the new facts were able to be reported on PM, why is it impossible for ABC Perth, 2 hours behind the east coast to include these new facts in their evening bulletin?

  36. In fact, the catch all use of “meme” is rather confusing, as evidenced by Steve777 just now.

    Use by the LNP of “chaos on our borders” or hyping up the catastrophic consequences of the Carbon Tax – these are just examples of hyperbole, or spin (and “spin” in this sense is a perfectly good new meaning for an old word).

  37. [As far as I can tell, ideas, styles and behaviours – to cite some of the examples mentioned in the Wiki definition – had already been transmitted through the culture from person to person before the Internet, and before Richard Dawkins. Why pretend this is new? Is that somehow more exciting?]
    Because Dawkins’ insight was that the way information can be transmitted and change over time is analogous to the way genes transmit information which can change over time.

    The cultural behaviour of human transmission of information in some ways mimics the biology that makes us who we are in the first place, genes have organised themselves into organisms that transmit information in similar ways to the genes themselves.

  38. Meme is more than trend or fad. It can be an idea, a concept, a word or phrase. The study of memes is the study of how ideas, or words which carry ideas, are spread among humans. And it tries to understand what are the factors leading to the rapid spread of particular ideas and phrases as compared to ideas which don’t spread.

  40. [Example: “bicycle”. Before they existed, there was no need for this word.

    Or: “locomotive” – same thing.]
    OK, what about the word “neologism”?

  42. Now that I read the Wikipedia article on “meme,” I see that JV is using it in a sense which is the exact opposite of that intended by Dawkins when he coined it. Dawkins saw it as the cultural equivalent of a gene. It spreads through the culture because it serves a useful purpose or expresses a truth, just as a beneficial gene spreads through a population by way of natural selection. So JV’s definition: “a confused, incorrect, and unoriginal thought, or known lie, expressed by the ignorant for the ulterior motives of others up to whom they look” is wrong. That would be the equivalent of a harmful gene, which will not be favoured by natural selection and will be bred out.

  43. memes aren’t fads or trends. they are ideas, attitudes and beliefs that strengthen a culture and help it survive /thrive /outcompete other cultures. In PNG they have ‘ancestor worship’ where you might, for example, adopt the hunting practices of your grandfather or gardening practices of your grandmother, not because you have a western conception of the aerodynamics of particular arrows or soil health and nutrition, but because they were your ancestor. overtime, the memes that develop successful practices will produce more adherents than less productive practices. Dawkins applied it largely to organised religion, seeking to explain why particular faiths did better than others. It makes sense – the inherent hypocrisy of institutional Christianity that our culture follows/followed has been very successful, and this dominant meme has thrived while those living more in keeping with what Jesus taught have died out/been killed off by the dominant meme ‘Christians’.

  45. ShowsOn

    You seem to be saying that Dawkins offered some sort of insight into the way that trends may evolve in society. That’s well and good but I don’t see it as necessitating a new and confusing word. However, unless I’m missing something, I can’t see that it’s any great insight. It was already self-evident that trends evolved within a culture and between cultures. The fact that this might be likened to the behaviour of a gene is neither here nor there. Good topic for an essay, granted, but reason to coin a new word? Hardly.

  46. News item (faux)

    “This morning Australia’s Defence Minister arrived for the Paris air show on a Boeing company jet.

    Mr W.A.R Monger, the Minister, is in Paris to buy 60 of the new Boeing NFG-Strike Fighters on display at the Paris Airshow for the Australian Air Force.

    When asked why he came on the Boeing company jet, a spokesperson for Boeing said Boeing often offered spare seats to visitors when such seats were available. “This is a normal part of Boeing’s corporate hospitality”, he said.

    The Minister’s office vehemently denied there was any conflict of interest.

    The Minister’s office added that other Ministers quite often took advantage of “spare seats” as had Mr Morrison on a plane charter by the Toll company to go to Nauru in July of 2013.

    “The fact that Toll was a major supplier of equipment to the island that would undergo expansion with further purchases of tents and the like was a completely separate issue”, the Minister’s spokesperson said.

  47. Dawkins might have been better analogising the meme to the virus rather than the gene. When something goes viral its a meme which is reproducing at a very high rate.

  48. Hell yes, can we stop talking about the boats?

    We get bugger all anyway, compared to just about any other developed country bar NZ.

    Only reinforces the widely held regional view that we get stuff all asylum seekers, and then bitch about it all day long like big whining sooks. An view which is not only sadly correct, but wont help us develop a regional solution.

  50. Now that I read the Wikipedia article on “meme,” I see that JV is using it in a sense which is the exact opposite of that intended by Dawkins when he coined it. Dawkins saw it as the cultural equivalent of a gene. It spreads through [the culture because it serves a useful purpose or expresses a truth, just as a beneficial gene spreads through a population by way of natural selection. So JV’s definition: “a confused, incorrect, and unoriginal thought, or known lie, expressed by the ignorant for the ulterior motives of others up to whom they look” is wrong. That would be the equivalent of a harmful gene, which will not be favoured by natural selection and will be bred out.]

    spot on. it is a mis-used term. JVs definition is more akin to a cancerous mutation of a gene. unfortunately when applied to the major parties, it describes their current dominant meme fairly well. hopefully over time the forces of niceness overcome the forces of meanness and nastieness (to quote maxwell smart). that’s why I’m a green /’trot’

Comments Page 30 of 37
1 … 29 30 31 … 37

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *