Seats of the week: Forde and Herbert

A double feature encompassing two of the LNP-held seats which Labor is eyeing greedily on the back of its Queensland poll resurgence.

UPDATE (Morgan): The weekly Morgan poll is little changed on last time, with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There is actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size). We will surely have Newspoll along later this evening, while the regular Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow.

Two for the price of one this week as I scramble to catch up with the Queensland seats suddenly deemed in play under Kevin Rudd 2.0 …

Seat of the week #1: Forde

Straddling the southern edge of Brisbane, Forde was one of a number of Queensland seats which fell Labor’s way under Kevin Rudd’s leadership at the 2007 election, only to be lost again in the wake of his demise three years later. The electorate contains the eastern part of the municipality of Logan City around Beenleigh and extends southwards along the Pacific Motorway to accommodate, somewhat awkwardly, the rapidly growing suburb of Upper Coomera at the interior northern edge of the Gold Coast. The latter area was acquired in the redistribution which preceded the 2010 election, when Forde provided the new seat of Wright with about a third of its voters in rural territories extending to the New South Wales border.

Forde was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, at which time it covered Brisbane’s outer south-west. Liberal candidate David Watson won the seat on its debut by 43 votes, but was unseated after a single term at the 1987 election by Labor’s Mary Crawford. Watson would later return to politics in the state parliament, eventually leading the Liberal Party into a disastrous result at the 2001 election. Crawford meanwhile built up a handy margin on the back of swings in 1990 and 1993, before a punishing redistribution pulled the seat into the rural Beaudesert region on the New South Wales border. Thwarted in a bid to be reassigned to an outer suburban seat, in part as a consequence of the party’s determination to accommodate Kevin Rudd in Griffith, Crawford was left with no buffer to defend herself against the savage swing that hit Labor across Queensland, which struck in Forde to the tune of 9.6%.

Forde was then held for the Liberals throughout the Howard years by Kay Elson, who retained comfortable margins in 1998 and 2001 before enjoying a further 5.9% boost in 2004. Elson’s retirement at the 2007 election was presumably a factor behind the spectacular 14.4% swing to Labor, making the seat one of three in Queensland where Labor was able to overhaul double-digit Coalition margins. It was then held for a term by Brett Raguse, a former teacher, local newspaper publisher and TAFE college director who had more recently worked as an adviser to state ministers associated with the AWU/Labor Forum sub-faction of the Right. The aforementioned redistribution improved Raguse’s margin from 2.9% to 3.4%, but this proved insufficient at the 2010 election in the face of what by Queensland standards was a fairly typical swing of 5.0%.

The seat has since been held for the LNP by Bert van Manen, a financial planner from Slacks Creek who had run as the Family First candidate for Rankin in 2007. Van Manen’s Labor opponent at the coming election is Des Hardman, a radiographer at Logan Hospital. Brett Raguse meanwhile re-emerged as a candidate for the preselection to succeed Craig Emerson in the neighbouring seat of Rankin, in which he was narrowly unsuccessful despite claiming support from Kevin Rudd.

Seat of the week #2: Herbert

The Townsville-based electorate of Herbert has been in conservative hands without interruption since 1996, although it has been highly marginal throughout that time. The seat has existed since federation, at which time it extended north to Cairns and south to Mackay. More recently it has covered central Townsville and a shifting aggregation of surrounding territory, the pre-2010 election redistribution having transferred the southern suburbs of Annandale and Wulguru to Dawson and added Deeragun and its northern coastal surrounds from Kennedy. The strongest booths for Labor are generally around the town centre, while those in the outer suburbs tend to be more volatile as well as more conservative, having moved strongly with the statewide tides toward Labor in 2007 and against it in 2004 and 2010. Lavarack Barracks makes the electorate highly sensitive to defence issues, with the sector accounting for about one in eight jobs in the electorate. Presumably as a consequence, the electorate is unusually youthful, the median age of 32 being four years lower than for any other seat in regional Queensland.

Herbert was a working class and Labor seat for much of its history, being in Labor hands until the 1960s and turning in a 34.2% vote for Communist Party candidate Frederick Paterson in 1943 (Paterson went on to win the state seat of Bowen the following year, the only such success for a Communist candidate in Australian history). A watershed moment came with the victory of Liberal candidate Robert Bonnett in the 1966 landslide, which was followed by further Liberal swings against the trend of the 1969 and 1972 elections. The seat came back on Labor’s radar after the 1980 election, when their candidate Ted Lindsay succeeded in reducing the Liberal margin to below 1%. Lindsay went one better when he ran again in 1983, gaining the seat with a 3.7% swing and retaining it throughout the Hawke-Keating years. Together with most of his Queensland Labor colleagues he was unseated at the 1996 election, when unrelated Liberal candidate Peter Lindsay won off a 9.0% swing. Ted Lindsay came within 160 votes of pulling off a comeback in 1998, before Peter Lindsay consolidated with swings of 1.5% in 2001 and 4.7% in 2004. He survived another close shave by 343 votes in 2007, a swing to Labor of 5.9% being slightly below a statewide 7.5% which cost the Coalition eight seats.

Lindsay bowed out at the 2010 election and was succeeded as candidate for the Liberal National Party by Ewen Jones, an auctioneer for local real estate agency Ferry Property. Jones’s Labor opponent was Tony Mooney, who served for nearly two decades as mayor of Townsville and earned a footnote in Australian political history when his failure to win the 1996 Mundingburra by-election for Labor led to the downfall of the Goss government. Perhaps reflecting the loss of Lindsay’s personal vote, Jones picked up what by Queensland standards was a modest swing of 2.2%, which was nonetheless enough to secure his hold on a seat which the redistribution had made, by the narrowest of margins, notionally Labor. Jones’s Labor opponent this time is Cathy O’Toole, a former chief executive of a disability employment service and member of the Left faction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,266 comments on “Seats of the week: Forde and Herbert”

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  3. but I don’t see how turnbull could take it on

    as he would have to have a tougher policy that MR Rudd
    re refugees

    after all the agreement with PNG is with the Rudd gov,

  4. Rudd now directly accusing Abbott of encouraging the boats to keep coming:

    [KEVIN Rudd has accused Opposition Leader Tony Abbott of seeking to undermine the tough message to people smugglers in the escalating war of words over the government’s PNG solution.

    Initially caught flat footed when Mr Rudd announced the plan on Friday, the opposition has since gone on the attack, citing a wide range of concerns. But Mr Rudd was unconcerned.

    “Mr Abbott is out there deliberately undermining the government’s clear message to people smugglers,” he said.

    That was not in the national interest, although it might be in Mr Abbott’s personal political interest, he said.

    Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus said the Liberal Party was desperately trying to undermine the arrangement with PNG “simply because it suits their political interests for the boats to keep coming”.]

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/png-boat-policy-is-taking-effect-burke/story-e6frfku9-1226682927089#ixzz2ZlMVUYAR

  5. If the Libs want to change maybe it would be to Hokey which would be too uncertain to do unless they were clearly behind.

    Nevertheless I like the 50/50 51/49 figures best at the moment, until an election is called. Boil the frog slowly.

  10. MT did not appeal to me at all on the ellen fanning show
    cannot relate to him do others think he has aged, and is rather thin

    he is nothing like any of the liberal people there now either,

    he just seems the odd one out, in the party,

  11. I know of one Labor staffer who plans to attend his local Coalition post-election wake if Labor manages to win. He will wear a badge bearing the name Mr Schadenfreude.

  13. [Kim Hames has resigned as Tourism Minister in the wake of revelations he wrongly claimed an accommodation allowance of more than $1000.

    In his first day back after leave, Premier Colin Barnett today called a press conference to make the announcement.

    Mr Barnett said that Dr Hames, who will remain as Health Minister, was honest and had done a good job but that there was a mistake and there must be consequences.]

    The difference between Barnett and Abbott.

  14. [The Greens relationship to the ALP is that of a parasitic organism feeding off its host and gradually weakening it.]

    Don’t often agree with you bemused, especially in your dark days last year, but you have this one spot on!

  15. [I know of one Labor staffer who plans to attend his local Coalition post-election wake if Labor manages to win. He will wear a badge bearing the name Mr Schadenfreude.]

    Now that I gotta see 🙂

  16. my say

    The photos of Malcolm in earlier years certainly made a contrast between “young, confident (sexy?)” and “ageing”.

  17. A few headlines from the Oz today:

    [MOST super savers have just had their best investment year in 16 years, and their second best since compulsory super was introduced.]

    and

    [SENIOR West Australian minister Kim Hames has resigned his tourism portfolio after he admitted wrongly claiming more than $1000 for accommodation expenses.]

    but I’m not sure about this one

    [THE BRITISH public has gone into a frenzy after the Duchess of Cambridge was finally admitted to hospital in labour.]

  18. @jv/1862

    Labor did not adopt Abbott’s policy of stopping the boats.

    Stopping the boats requires turning back the boats.

    Direct your vile at Abbott.

  20. jaundiced view

    Having David Marr on your side isn’t quite the coup you appear to believe it is.

    It’s not the left-leaning journalist elite you need, it’s the Australian voter. Or do you still harbour the delusion that the electorate are all closet Greens?

  21. [Rather unlike the hyped up behaviour of the government’s minions here, giving themselves prolapses trying to contort into the new party position required. The same people doing this were they who poured scorn on T Abbott for his “Stop The Boats” mantra, until the day Labor adopted it. ]

    Not me pal. My line has been clear for the past three years.

  22. PMKR’s reference to “still a lot of policy reform” to be done is suggestive of (a) the election will not be late August OR (b) it will be late August, with the Labor plans for “policy reform” being part of its election campaign.

    I’m betting on (a). I the PM wants to go to the G20 in October – a good international stage for him.

    Some news commentators tonight are convinced the PM will announce an election “in the next few days” or “some time this weekend”

    Perhaps a visit to Quentin Bryce on Sunday, then an announcement, press conference etc, full media coverage in the evening, and newspaper coverage on Monday, to kick off the campaign.

  23. [ The same people doing this were they who poured scorn on T Abbott for his “Stop The Boats” mantra, until the day Labor adopted it. ]

    Complete and utter bullshit from you jv

    In summary Abbot’s plan is nothing but a slogan whereas Rudd’s plan might very well be a solution. You can try and pass one off against the other as being equally inhumane or whatever lie you chose. That’s for you to live with. The bottom line is will the Green’s solution (whatever the hell that is???) result in less deaths? I say that can’t be the case. Their position is unpalatable to the Australian people as a whole (you know, winning elections in a democracy type stuff) so I guess you’ll need to convince the majority of your fellow citizens of your argument. The fact that you struggle to get even two or three people here to agree with you says to me you’ll have a much harder time in convincing people in Western Sydney and North Queensland.

    You can continue to hope for drownings on a daily basis but I hope for lives saved.

  24. JV

    I have always considered myself the compassionate type when it comes to boat people. I resent the use of the word “illegal” and I believe the country benefits far more from these people than they do by coming here.

    However, I can’t quite see how Labor’s new policy can be seen as so offensive.

    The circumstances have changed. Entrepreneurs are preying on these helpless people and deliberately sinking the vessels once they are within range of the Australian authorities. This is now the modus operandi.

    How do you deal with that? I used to argue that the flow of boat people was a trickle, and that we should simply process those few who did arrive onshore and be done with it. Let the xenophobes stew in their own sad hatreds.

    But this is a new, complex problem. You cannot simply take the high moral ground. You need to have a viable scenario to deal with a continuing escalation of numbers.

    Arguably, the present numbers are manageable, at a pinch. Arguably double the present numbers are.

    But what do you proposed if these people start coming in far larger numbers? That is the spectre that a thoughtful, responsible Canberra regime has to consider. And don’t forget, the PM and his inner circle are privy to intelligence on these matters that we will never see.

    This is nothing like Abbott’s “stop the boats” mantra. He was advocating a unilateral, reckless approach with regard to Indonesia that might well have led to many more deaths at sea and a most unpleasant spat with Indonesia.

    This solution is hardly ideal. No solution to such a complex problem ever will be – but in the real world, actual solutions must be devised and implemented.

    And as noted a few posts back, we are likely to see an increase in the number of refugees settled in Australia, which is obviously a good thing.

  25. [Perhaps a visit to Quentin Bryce on Sunday, then an announcement, press conference etc, full media coverage in the evening, and newspaper coverage on Monday, to kick off the campaign.]

    Malcolm Farr gives a good explanation of the mechanics of calling an election. He (and a few other writers) seem to be wasted at News Corp.

    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/kevin-rudd8217s-options-for-an-election-date-narrowing-august-31-most-likely/story-fnho52ip-1226683082407

  26. Labor are thoroughly cornered on the asylum seeker issue and have been since the Tampa. Kim Beazley should have left the racist / bogan vote to John Howard and called his racist dog whistling for what it was. Then the ALP should have gone about building a consensus on a policy to develop a regional solution with asylum seekers being processed in transit countries (and where possible source countries) with Australia taking its fair share. At the same time working with our neighbours to crack down on people smuggler networks. It would have been difficult and expensive. There would have been big challenges, including corruption in transit countries. But the result would hardly worse have been worse than the situation we have now.

  28. If anything the Greens should be grateful to LAbor for giving them something to be passionate about.

    After Bob Brown’s retirement, the party having gone backwards at state/territory elections since the last federal election, and Senators like SHY eschewing campaigning with her leader in favour of a former Liberal, things were looking pretty grim for the party.

    The PNG solution however has given them something to yell about again.

  30. ruawake@1848


    Under the ALP there will be 20-27,000 refugees accepted into Australia, under the L-NP 13,000.

    If Labor get re-elected and significantly stops boat arrivals – have no doubt that the tories next target will be the level of refugees accepted in general, irrespective of where they come from.

    The debate will moveon and dig deeper. Morrison is very comfortable in such a niche. That grin is the giveaway. He could talk underwater with a mouthful of marbles.

  31. Steve777

    When will people on the left UNDERSTAND that the “bogan” vote wins elections?

    If a mass party like the ALP says ‘aw fuck the bogans, you can have them, Libs!’ they are doomed to opposition FOREVER.

    For proof, see the Greens.

  32. jv

    David Marr is factually wrong in his Gruniad piece.

    “Rudd Mark I closed the camps on Manus and Nauru.”

    Sorry the last person on Manus was Aladdin Sisalem, he left in June 2004. How could Rudd close a camp that had no people in it for 3 years before he was elected?

  34. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 3h
    Presumably main point of Labor policy is actually to slow boats before the election, not to appear tough. #justsayin]

    This was my reaction as well.

  38. [Perhaps a visit to Quentin Bryce on Sunday, then an announcement, press conference etc, full media coverage in the evening, and newspaper coverage on Monday, to kick off the campaign.]

    If Rudd visits on Sunday it will have to be a Sept election. Oh the G20 is on the 5-6 September as well. I suggest you rethink.

  39. I have just had a terrible shock after reading William’s excellent review of Herbert. Someone please tell me that the Cathy O’Toole who is the Labor candidate isn’t the right wing warrior (known by branch members as Cathy O’Fool) who was dropped on Lindsay by Della Bosca and co in 1998.

    She and other inappropriate unelectable candidates like Belinda Neil were a significant factor in Labor falling short of an unlikely win

  41. jaundiced view@1862

    Calm rational exposition from David Marr. Rather unlike the hyped up behaviour of the government’s minions here, giving themselves prolapses trying to contort into the new party position required. The same people doing this were they who poured scorn on T Abbott for his “Stop The Boats” mantra, until the day Labor adopted it.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/22/captain-rudd-australia-depths-shame

    Abbott had no plausible method to stop the flow of boats.

    Labor has now put one on the table and it will prevail.

  42. Wilkie has been a champion pork barrelleer using his power in a minority government to generate all sorts of disproportionate goodies for Tasmania. He now adds hypocrisy to this policy perversion.

    It reminds me of no integrity; no honesty and no respect for the public.

    He is not fit to be an MP.

  44. jv@1862: absolute drivel from Marr. Easily the worst thing he has ever written IMO. And erroneous too in that he claims that we are “happy” to accept refugee applicants who arrive by air. That nonsense has been put forward again and again by bleeding hearts. People who arrive by plane having destroyed their papers on the way and then attempt to claim refugee status on arrival are treated just as harshly as unauthorized arrivals: many don’t even get past Customs and are flown straight out (as i understand it, this depends on where they have embarked from). The rest are generally detained.

    The refugee applicants who are treated differently are those who enter the country with valid documents and then claim asylum. Of course they are treated differently: we know their identities and that they are not criminals or terrorists. And we generally know where they are living.

    The reason boat arrivals are such a big issue is not, as Marr seems to be suggesting, some primal xenophobic fear, but that have no control over them and, for the most part, we don’t even know who they are.

  45. Darren Laver@1864

    The Greens relationship to the ALP is that of a parasitic organism feeding off its host and gradually weakening it.


    Don’t often agree with you bemused, especially in your dark days last year, but you have this one spot on!

    Oh… I should mention that I agreed with one of yours earlier too. 😀

    I wasn’t aware of having any dark days last year.

  46. OC

    ‘I have just had a terrible shock after reading William’s excellent review of Herbert.’

    That line is fit for a dustjacket and I suggest that William keeps it for such a purpose and uses it when he writes the popular, accessible and no doubt major bestselling book based on his PhD.

  48. At least there is some good news amongst the awful, with a start being made on party reform. The change of leadership group is justified already. This will create the impetus for further devolution of power from the centre to the rank-and-file such as policy, candidates and admin positions.

    According to Rudd as to the leadership, “The unions are cut out. If they want a say in toppling or choosing a leader, Mr Rudd says they’ll have to join a branch.”
    – As they did mid-last century in the heyday.

    There’s logic in that. Virtually no ordinary union members belong to the party these days. This concept should be spread to candidate and admin positions and policy.

  50. [http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/07/22/18/31/wilkie-warns-against-alp-pork-barrelling

    ==============================================
    well as a resident of tas I don’t care what the gov, offer us, and nor should wilkie]

    I think he wants to take full credit for government funding in Tas and his electorate. He doesn’t want the government to promise anything that might take votes away from him and give the votes to another candidate at the election.

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