ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition

A second post-Ruddstoration ReachTEL result finds little change on the first, and confirms the impression that Malcolm Turnbull is strongly favoured over both the current contenders.

ReachTEL has published results of an automated phone poll of 2922 respondents across the country which has the Coalition leading 51-49, down from 52-48 in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change, from primary votes of 39.3% for Labor (up 0.5%, 45.4% for the Coalition (up 0.3%) and 8.3% for the Greens (down 0.4%). ReachTEL shows Kevin Rudd with an unusually narrow 52.4-47.6 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but the knife is nonetheless turned on Abbott by a result on voting intention under a Malcolm Turnbull leadership which has the Coalition lead at 58-42. Turnbull is also favoured 65-35 over Rudd as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,388 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. notice how mr rudd does not waffle any more

    get to the point then says that’s it we are off to what ever next

    I think kev is rather different for the better now

  2. “@senthorun: Meanwhile, what about LGBTI asylum seekers, PM @KRuddMP? How can they be protected in a place that criminalises homosexuality? #auspol”

  3. [ruawake
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 5:02 pm | PERMALINK
    Rudd stops the boats and axes the tax in one week. Poor Tony]

    Hey! The first Gillardista converts to a Ruddisteroonie! 🙂

  4. The one thing i dont like about this is that if the people smugglers are going to “test” that arrangements, they will do it with crappy boats loaded with women and kids. 🙁

  5. PvO

    “This will stop the boats, and I have already received info that opponents will now target Rudd’s fsilef record in the past”

  6. Mod Lib@145

    Gary
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 4:47 pm | PERMALINK
    Bloody brilliant.


    I reckon Psephos will be a fan too (wait to hear directly though)…..what about everyone else?

    One thing is clear now: Gillard got a one for 5 swap deal, whereas Rudd appears to have an arrangement where PNG takes 100%!

    Yes, so who was the ‘Great Negotiator’? 👿

  7. [“This will stop the boats, and I have already received info that opponents will now target Rudd’s fsilef record in the past”]

    What is a fsilef record?

  8. Abbott forgets “this government” has only had four weeks! Hardly “too little too late”. In fact they’ve moved quickly (some may say “too quickly”) on some major policy decisions.
    From Abbott we’ve had negativity for three years and of course the Little Blue Book – woo hoo Chairman Abbott!

    Are we ever going to get anything close to the truth from Abbott, Hockey, Pine et al ?

  9. [Hey! The first Gillardista converts to a Ruddisteroonie]

    Hey loser, when Rudd lost I said “The King is dead, long live the Queen. When Gillard lost I said “The Queen is dead, long live the King”.

    I support the ALP. 😛

  10. I am not that hip when it comes to abbreviations so thought fsilef might be shorthand for something!!!!! :devil:

  11. I am not that hip when it comes to abbreviations so thought fsilef might be shorthand for something!!!!! :devil:

  12. I await the Greens reaction with interest. Will the say that it is humane to resettle people here but not humane to resettle people in PNG?

  13. The reason I can live with this is because of the increase in regional co operation and the international conference to come.

    The regional and International co operation and conferences will be the important things long term

  14. [guytaur
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 5:07 pm | PERMALINK
    The reason I can live with this]

    It sounds like you are not that thrilled in your heart!

  15. 149

    do u know am sick of other organization dictating,

    lets just do it any way and up the lot of them

    gee never thought I would have that attitude, may be

    a barometer for what a lot are thinking

    I think we are worn down by it , abbott and his mob every day since I can remember,, never ending stop the bloody boats

    I would say this was abbotts objective to wear us all down,
    to this point,

  16. [I await the Greens reaction with interest.]

    I dont. Sarah Much Too Young has had little of value to say on the issue so far.

  17. [Anyone think we might be creating an off shore ghetto?]

    That’s a very disrespectful comment about our near neighbor PNG.

  18. ruawake@166

    Hey! The first Gillardista converts to a Ruddisteroonie


    Hey loser, when Rudd lost I said “The King is dead, long live the Queen. When Gillard lost I said “The Queen is dead, long live the King”.

    I support the ALP.

    Well you showed it in a strange way by supporting the retention of an ineffective leader for so long.

  19. The other thing is that the LNP’s line that “Rudd is all talk” has been been blown out of the water:

    * A deal with Jakarta to stop Iranians getting visa on arrival

    * Opening up of live cattle market

    * This deal with Peter O’Neill

    Real achievements. Not talk.

  20. “@ABCNews24: David Manne tells @abcnews24 new agreement with PNG “a fundamental repudiation of our commitment to protecting refugees” #asylum”

  21. PvO suggesting this will change the game and it will be even more effective than TPVs and towbacks.

    Tim suggesting ‘it might work’.

  22. [ruawake
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 5:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Hey! The first Gillardista converts to a Ruddisteroonie

    Hey loser, when Rudd lost I said “The King is dead, long live the Queen. When Gillard lost I said “The Queen is dead, long live the King”.

    I support the ALP]

    So you don’t actually believe in anything as such, just supporting the footy team, eh?

    I thought as much!

  23. The greens are going to apocalyptic….. lol. They could support a Lib government now as being closer to there boat people policy lol.

  24. For all Abbott and Hockey’s rants about jobs losses as a result of changes to FBT,

    Still no tears over the mass sackings by Newman in Qld…

    hypocrites ..and if there is a worse kind of hypocrite they are it

  25. yes mike, PNG are a developing nation and I think Timor missed an opportunity , think this is what JG had in mind re timor.

    I would and think their is some great trading advantages being set up for PNG

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