ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition

A second post-Ruddstoration ReachTEL result finds little change on the first, and confirms the impression that Malcolm Turnbull is strongly favoured over both the current contenders.

ReachTEL has published results of an automated phone poll of 2922 respondents across the country which has the Coalition leading 51-49, down from 52-48 in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change, from primary votes of 39.3% for Labor (up 0.5%, 45.4% for the Coalition (up 0.3%) and 8.3% for the Greens (down 0.4%). ReachTEL shows Kevin Rudd with an unusually narrow 52.4-47.6 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but the knife is nonetheless turned on Abbott by a result on voting intention under a Malcolm Turnbull leadership which has the Coalition lead at 58-42. Turnbull is also favoured 65-35 over Rudd as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,388 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Psephos

    I’m unlikely to be Lillian Gish, given that she died 2 decades agos, a few monts before my second son was born … nearly 100 years old.

    Mind you, I’ve been compared to worse folk than her.

  2. [Liberal Party says public servants buying gold-plated coffee machines]

    On the other hand they are crying crocodile tears about those in the senior ranks losing FBT perks on cars!

  3. Well, it looks like the Psephos solution is being put into operation with the small addition of settlement in PNG.

  4. [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 5m
    PM Rudd media conference 1630]

    Rudd is far better than JG at timing major announcements. He leaves just enough time for TV news to compile their reports but barely enough time for anyone else to run interference on the nightly news. Good management.

  5. Dee

    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    Just arrived home to a letter from NBNCo.

    ‘It’s here, and it’s time to switch now’

    Yoohoo!
    ————————————————–

    Congrats – I got a 3 year wait…hoping I don’t end up with copper remaining

  6. Dee@110

    Just arrived home to a letter from NBNCo.

    ‘It’s here, and it’s time to switch now’

    Yoohoo!

    You are so cruel flaunting that in front of the rest of us.

    I have Optus cable and it is adequate but certainly not fast.

    My eldest son could not get cable or ADSL so has gone for 4G. It is expensive but beats my speed hands down. Of course that will changes as more start using it and his speed will drop.

  7. Oliver Laughland ‏@oliverlaughland 1m

    Essentially Australia has just closed its borders, and claims the action remains within the UN’s refugee convention.
    Retweeted by Guardian Australia

  8. I ve always thought that these sort of polices would also benefit them re work they would have to build premises I would say we are going to help them in many ways and so we should,,
    if do not the china will

  9. my say – I’ve never been to PNG but resettling all asylum seekers there & then refusing access to Australia is to me a harsh policy, others no doubt will disagree.

  10. I reckon an election date may be imminent!

    ….ie stop Turnbull taking over and don’t allow any time to see whether this asylum seeker plan works

  11. rubbish we have not closed our borders,, people will have to come the normal way,

    the smugglers we want to stop

    even the most sympathetic have become sick of it

  12. I’m not a fan personally.

    BUT…

    Politically-

    Morrison will have trouble running vehement opposition to this.

  13. zoidlord@71


    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 2m

    Took him 2 weeks of thought for this gem RT @ScottMorrisonMP: If you vote for Kevin the Campaigner, you get Rudd the Wrecker in Government.

    Actually Scotty pinched that from the Daily Tele, who had a “Rudd the Wrecker” caption/article the other day.
    More likely, they are in cahoots anyway.

  14. PNG PM emphasises that this is not an isolated Australian problem but a regional one.

    Rudd needs to run this line against Abbott’s.

  15. I will say this for PMKR. Its a fait accompli.

    Its happening government agreements are signed. Now Abbott will not be raging against a hypothetical as he managed to do by voting against Malaysia.

    I think from comments this means PNG abiding by UN Treaty too.

  16. One good thing to come out of the Australian/PNG agreement on asylum seekers is the likelihood of greater co-operation between the two countries on a range of matters. PNG certainly has its internal problems but is a country with a very bright future if these problems can be overcome.

    Having a peaceful and prosperous neighbour in PNG can only be of benefit to Australia.

  17. LABOR’S crackdown on the fringe benefits tax for cars would be dumped by the Coalition, Tony Abbott says, as jobs within the industry face the axe.

    He said it was estimated that 35 per cent of all salary packaged vehicles are made by local manufacturers Toyota, Ford and Holden.

    Now all Abbott needs to do revoke his pledge to remove the subsidies to the car industry and his Paid Parental leave tax and the car industry will be saved.

    More jobs will be lost if he implements these promises

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/jobs-to-go-as-car-fringe-benefits-tax-ends/story-fncynjr2-1226681612703#ixzz2ZTK1MCFf

  18. glory some years ago I would not have been a fan either

    but to bury racism in this country we first have to stop the boats

    and abbott doesn’t want to, and after all what wrong with PNG if your main objective is to find another country

    it shows those that are genuine in their quest to find a new home of financial reason s want to come to aust.

    what if the boats stop and no one comes

    I realy like drayfus,, if I could be so bold,labor has so much talent and I think this group of new ministers are as good if not better than the immediate past front bench

  19. I suggested the govt do exactly this with Indonesia.
    So it’s PNG, great stuff!
    Abbott tightening the cilice as we speak…

  20. [He said it was estimated that 35 per cent of all salary packaged vehicles are made by local manufacturers Toyota, Ford and Holden.]

    Yeah, but what proportion are actually locally manufactured?

  21. [Gary
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 4:47 pm | PERMALINK
    Bloody brilliant.]

    I reckon Psephos will be a fan too (wait to hear directly though)…..what about everyone else?

    One thing is clear now: Gillard got a one for 5 swap deal, whereas Rudd appears to have an arrangement where PNG takes 100%!

  22. Thanks William
    [We’ve had national polls from ReachTEL on April 12, May 3, June 27, and July 18. The respective 2PP results were 1.4%, 2.2%, 0.9% and now 0.9% worse for Labor than BludgerTrack had them at the time.]

    Continuing that train of thought:

    mark the ballot has the “house effects’, ie ‘lean’ to one or the other parties, of the various pollsters for a period of time as :
    -Favouring the COALition
    Essential 1.62%
    ReachTel 1.55%
    Galaxy .59%
    Newspoll .14%
    Favouring the ALP
    Nielsen .31%
    Morgan mm 2.4%

    Are these ‘leans’ incorporated into BludgerTrack or removed before inclusion?

  23. First impression: this seems like a masterstroke.

    Abbott has got nowhere to move. This is both hardline, and yet it stays with the refugee convention framework. Thank goodness any thought of pulling out of the convention has been appropriately consigned to the rubbish bin of bad ideas.

  24. Oliver Milman ‏@olliemilman 2m

    The Refugee Convention clearly states that governments cannot discriminate against refugees on the basis of their arrival. #auspol
    Retweeted by Guardian Australia

  25. Well, at least this announcement is something different from business as usual which is a farking disaster. Transfers to a country that is signatory to the convention, with resettlement potential after processing means that Oz becomes a lot less attractive as a destination country, and so taking pressure off the transit countries as well.

    Strikes me that this could actually have more potential than the Malaysian deal in the longer term.

    The immediate political prospects for this in Australia are going to be interesting. Whats the odds :monkey: went white at the prospect of “stop the boats” being taken off him??

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