ReachTEL has published results of an automated phone poll of 2922 respondents across the country which has the Coalition leading 51-49, down from 52-48 in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change, from primary votes of 39.3% for Labor (up 0.5%, 45.4% for the Coalition (up 0.3%) and 8.3% for the Greens (down 0.4%). ReachTEL shows Kevin Rudd with an unusually narrow 52.4-47.6 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but the knife is nonetheless turned on Abbott by a result on voting intention under a Malcolm Turnbull leadership which has the Coalition lead at 58-42. Turnbull is also favoured 65-35 over Rudd as preferred prime minister.
Robert Oakeshott MP @OakeyMP 23s
And finally – from 2010-2013, national wholesale price has dropped. If carbon pricing applies to generation pre-wholesale, why the drop??
Guytaur:
[Slogan for voting informal: “The Purity Party”]
For ethical integrity! Down with coerced voting for the two spivs!
Turnball as leader again would not be quite as progressive as his admirers here think.
His economics are as dry as Abbott’s or Hockey’s.
He is a firm supporter of the Abbott/Morrison philosophy on asylum seekers.
Abbott claims on ETS
But to call an ETS with a floating price a “floating tax” ignores critical characteristics of an ETS and how it works. The rhetoric doesn’t fit the facts.
We rate the claim Mostly False.
Latika Bourke @latikambourke 5m
PM Rudd media conference 1630
Abbott on business not investing in Australia and heading overseas
To claim also that capital is fleeing Australia and, by implication, that Australia has lost its allure for foreign investors is at odd with the facts.
We rate this statement as Mostly False.
Well Abbotts finished the only unknown is who will do the finishing.
BEMUSED – The great thing about this poll is that, after the libs get their smashing at the election, they’ll have to think about what might have been but never was, because Rudd is going to call an election in the next few days. Labor would be insane to risk even a one per cent chance they won’t be facing Tone.
ruawake
Interesting, so this being reported extensively in the Sunshine daily does not augur well for Mr Brough….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/19/kevin-rudd-labor-asylum-border-protection?CMP=twt_gu
Kevin Rudd’s announcement is at 4.30pm.
Confirmation just now.
Word.
BUSINESS NUMBERS BY SIZE
There were 2,132,412 actively trading businesses in Australia as at June 2011,
an increase from 2,124,650 actively trading businesses as at June 2010
Didn’t Abbott say something about a lack of growth…..
Oh dear..
[
Dr Napthine was touring the TAFE facilities and accompanied by a media pack when a female ABC reporter asked a question regarding Mr Shaw’s taxpayer funded 12 day tour of Europe.
The stony-faced Premier reluctantly answered the question but when the journalist followed up with a question on Bayley’s attempt to appeal his 35-year sentence for the rape and murder of Jill Meagher, Dr Napthine removed his microphone and walked away from the cameras, shutting down the media call.
Fairfax Media has learned that Dr Napthine’s senior electorate staffer, Liz McKinnon, then returned to the room and confronted the freelance cameraman and ABC journalist and, in a heated exchange, implied the ABC’s working with the Premier’s office would be in jeopardy if the audio and vision of the two questions was sent back to the ABC newsroom in Melbourne and to the commercial networks, as part of the agreed media pool sharing arrangements.
A witness to the exchange described Ms McKinnon as “clearly flustered and displeased”.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/premier-denis-napthine-faces-bully-claim-20130719-2q8tb.html#ixzz2ZT6CGrGi
I still think there is merit having parliament sit again with a bill presented to bring forward the ETS by 1 year.
It would be very amusing to see Abbott vote against such a bill and this in effect support the carbon tax 🙂
[37
ruawake
Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:38 pm | PERMALINK
Seems like after millions of dollars wasted on investigations a magistrate will decide if Craig Thomson was authorised to use his union credit card.]
No. He will determine whether the DPP have proven that certain expenditures were not authorized.
Thomson, although having no onus to prove anything, will, in practical terms, have to submit that escorts etc were within authority. I would be surprised if that conclusion is reached and, if it is, there is no appeal.
Thomson’s assertion about economy of costs in splitting the case by creating a threshold issue appears attractive but rarely yields such an outcome.
[Fran Barlow
Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:49 pm | Permalink
Guytaur:
Slogan for voting informal: “The Purity Party”
For ethical integrity! Down with coerced voting for the two spivs!]
Perhaps the Pontius Pilate Party would be more suitable Fran
SHOWSON- No goddamn way should the ALP let the libs get together in Canberra and possibly depose Abbott.
If Rudd can’t pick up a couple of percentage points against Abbott during an election campaign, Labor’s dun anyway. They won’t get a better launch pad than now.
One of the fascinating questions during the election campaign will be how Tony copes emotionally. He already looks rattled. If he starts to think he’s gonna be a two-time loser, he might fall apart, big-time.
Zoid, you want answers to those queries?
1. 2013 NEM forecasts 4 energy demand were shown 2 me today. Despite a 5 year trend-line down,they still forecast up.Justifying gold-plating IMV
That’s hard to argue against, especially as there is nothing in the NEM rules penalising for bad projections in subsequent years. When it’s coupled that with the fact that in NSW and Qld (and WA, Tas?) the State Govt’s own the distribution companies and make a return on those companies’ investments… well, a cynic would call it taxation by stealth.
2. Wholesale price has not changed in past decade, so why has retail gone through the roof.?
This one is easier. There are three components to electricity prices: generation costs (wholesale), transmission and distribution costs, and retail business operating costs. Most of the growth in the last _decade_ has been in t&d costs, because of increases in peak load requiring more t&d capacity. A significant portion of the increase in the last _few years_ has been in retail business costs, but who knows why – aren’t private industry supposed to be more efficient?
3. And finally – from 2010-2013, national wholesale price has dropped. If carbon pricing applies to generation pre-wholesale, why the drop??
More PV and wind generation capacity, which have close-to zero marginal cost and no carbon price on them, plus a transfer to more gas-fired generation, which is less carbon intensive than coal, so less of an impact from the carbon price. Oh, it has alos been wetter, so more hydro capacity.
@ArchCC/68
Thanks for the answers, perhaps send an email to Oakey while you got the chance 🙂
Bout time the wider population starts finding their own answers!
Many people have such an abhorrence of paying tax that they go to extraordinary lengths to save even quite modest amounts of tax. Someone earning $80,000 a year salary sacrificing a $15,000 car would be lucky to be saving $500 a year – the price of a latte 3 times a week. Worth it? A vote changer? Not on any objective basis.
Someone on $150k salary sacrificing a $40,000 car might be saving $2,000 a year. Kind of understandable.
Of course for those on the top marginal tax rate salary sacrificing a more expensive car, the dollars start to mount up. Someone on $250k salary sacrificing a $100k car might be $5k or $6k better off.
But the whole point is this: why should the Government provide a tax subsidy to a person who chooses a car as part of their remuneration package instead of cash? It makes no sense – unless you are directly affected, and then only if you are directly reacting to your hip pocket nerve.
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 2m
Took him 2 weeks of thought for this gem RT @ScottMorrisonMP: If you vote for Kevin the Campaigner, you get Rudd the Wrecker in Government.
The number of actively trading businesses in Australia increased by 0.4 per cent between the 2010–11 and 2011–12 financial years, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.
Karen Connaughton, Director of National Tax Data and Business Demography, said that the Australian Business Counts publication showed there were 2,141,280 actively trading businesses in Australia at June 2012.
“Overall we’ve seen an increase of 8,868 active businesses in Australia,” Ms Connaughton said.
“This was due to an increase in new business registrations, as well as a decline in the exit rate of businesses,” she said.
WAIT – did she say decline in the exit rate….boy there I was nearly believing Abbott
KevJonno
[Perhaps the Pontius Pilate Party would be more suitable Fran]
Not for me. Unlike Pilate, I’m not surrendering to the crowd and giving in to what they want. The corwd here say vote PMKR and at Menzies, Vote Abbott. I’m refusing to choose. Those here who say they will hold their noses and vote against Abbott are closer to Pilate than is ‘the informal party’.
Sidebar: Today, most kids might assume that the Pontius Pilate Party was some new kind of exercise routine. 😉
The price has gone up after privatisation for one clear reason. Before privatisation the State underpinned the so-called inefficient industry but got a small return from the electricity authority and kept prices down.
Privatisation gave the state capital but they still demanded a levy from the now privatised company. This company needed an economic return on it’s investment. It could only keep costs down if highly efficient.
Often the poles and wires were “let go” because the state had provided incentives to do so.
At the end of the day there has been little demonstration of greater efficiency – simply higher costs passed on to the consumer.
Privatisation was the big mistake and we pay for it.
Sadly ALP State Governments frequently led the privatisation moves in the last 10 years.
The SMH poll on who should lead the LNP now has 30,495 votes. So are the Liberal staffers or the Labor staffers piling on the votes?
I voted for the person called “Other” and am glad that Other on 4% beat Bishop on 3% and Hockey on 2%. Surprisingly, Abbott is as high as 19% but a distant second to Turnbull on 72%.
so why have reach tell been given their own heading
I have not noticed morgan, with this statas
So. surprise surprise, the Coalition sides with tax rorters. But they are not only going
to a abolish the ETS but introduce taxpayer-funded payments to polluters under their ‘Direct Inaction’ plan. Where are they going to find the funds to do this?. I think we can assume they won’t attack any tax avoidance. That impacts their paymasters. So what will they do? ‘Waste and Mismanagement’ isn’t an answer, we need specifics; nor is ”Stopping the boats’ in the absence if a credible plan that would achieve this, nor are references to pink batts or cheques for dead people.
zoidlord
Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 3:08 pm | Permalink
Another thread!
As I said the other thread, interesting there is no discussion on economy!
———————————————————
We could discuss;
Triple A credit rating rom all 3 agencies…never happened under Howard
Low official interest rates
Low unemployment
Small business growth
Low inflation
Low debt to GDP ratio
Increasing investment
Continued productivity growth
OR
The impact of Abbotts Paid Parental leave a 1.5% tax increase on business
The cost of Direct Action – funding source (except taxpayers) not identified
Abbott plan to remove the subsidies the car industry
Where he plans to find the money for all his election promises (Bruce H’way etc) from a budget he describes an is “emergency”.
Why he going to set up a statutory body called Infrastructure Australia when there has been such a body since 2008.
ShowsOn@63
John Quiggin made the same point stating:
[I hope Parliament sits again, and that the government puts the necessary legislation forward. The amusement of watching Tony Abbott voting *for* the carbon tax would be well worth the price of admission.]
Fran
[Sidebar: Today, most kids might assume that the Pontius Pilate Party was some new kind of exercise routine. ]
I know 🙂
https://twitter.com/david_manne/statuses/358109801487679490
Independent bodies report conditions for #asylum seekers on Manus Isl are inhumane, degrading & amount to arbitrary, unlawful detention
I would not be a bit surprised if the election is called today
Liberal Party says public servants buying gold-plated coffee machines
Briggs and Abbott made public comments on the gold-plating as recently without further qualification or reference to rhetorical flourish. The myth is being perpetuated with several mentions in the Liberal Party’s eBook on waste.
We rate this as Pants on Fire.
Apparently carbon pricing & the proposed ETS is threatening brown coal power generation in the Latrobe Valley. I guess that’s another Labor stuff up – NOT.
“@jonathanvswan: I’m hearing we should prepare for some of the strongest language a Labor PM has used against boat arrivals.”
Tony Burke is alive. 😆
[“@jonathanvswan: I’m hearing we should prepare for some of the strongest language a Labor PM has used against boat arrivals.”]
Better late than never.
ausdavo @74 only in Vic and SA. In all other states the distribution (and transmission? I’m not entirely sure) companies are owned by the State governments.
Generation is another story, but there is competition in that part of the market, and wholesale prices have fallen in real terms, as expected.
Either way, the previously state-owned infrastructure needed upgrading, and prices were going to have to go up. When you lok over the last 50 years, they aren’t actually that high compared to prices in the 60s and 70s, and the load factors are a lot lower than in that time. I don’t accept the premise that electricity prices are at unreasonable levels – yes they gone up, but from very low levels.
[85
guytaur
Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 4:29 pm | PERMALINK
“@jonathanvswan: I’m hearing we should prepare for some of the strongest language a Labor PM has used against boat arrivals.”]
Bob Carr must be prepping the Prime Minister
The election will not be called before the Caucus meeting on Monday. The talk now is that it will be announced next week for 31 August. But who knows? Only Rudd.
[Bob Carr must be prepping the Prime Minister.]
One certainly hopes so.
[BUSINESS NUMBERS BY SIZE
There were 2,132,412 actively trading businesses in Australia as at June 2011,
an increase from 2,124,650 actively trading businesses as at June 2010
Didn’t Abbott say something about a lack of growth…..]
AA
As Hockey would say, growth is flatlining.
Waiting for Kevin …………
@mike/84
Not surprised, I heard Germany Nuclear power station shut down and a few others as well.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/renewables-blossom-in-germanys-post-nuclear-vision-15870
Manus Island detention centre is Australia’s disgrace now to be expanded by camp commandant Rudd.
“@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: PM @KRuddMP is addressing the media on #asylumseekers policy (we’re geoblock free) http://t.co/MiuTKxBIdm #auspol #ausvotes”
Abbott gets in the news just before the government announces an increase in Manus Island capacity.
[Abbott backs expanding offshore processing
From: AAP July 19, 2013 4:23PM
Tony Abbott says the coalition supports expanding offshore processing of asylum seekers.
ANY moves by the federal government to expand offshore processing of asylum seekers will be “too little, too late”, the opposition says.]
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/abbott-backs-expanding-offshore-processing/story-e6frfku9-1226682071821#ixzz2ZTEjJj
The photo accompanying the article has a none too flattering photo of Abbott in profile.
Psephos – Quite possible that Rudd will step out from the Balmain town hall, after the caucus meeting, wearing the traditional Balmain football jumper and maybe a digger’s slouch hat, with the Eureka flag behind him, and call the election.
Another quality presser courtesy of the ABC.
Lots of signing going on