ReachTEL has published results of an automated phone poll of 2922 respondents across the country which has the Coalition leading 51-49, down from 52-48 in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change, from primary votes of 39.3% for Labor (up 0.5%, 45.4% for the Coalition (up 0.3%) and 8.3% for the Greens (down 0.4%). ReachTEL shows Kevin Rudd with an unusually narrow 52.4-47.6 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but the knife is nonetheless turned on Abbott by a result on voting intention under a Malcolm Turnbull leadership which has the Coalition lead at 58-42. Turnbull is also favoured 65-35 over Rudd as preferred prime minister.
The PNG Refugee Assessment Panel:
Just bought a new Network AV Receiver, and new telly. Set it all up, turn it on and bloody Warren Truss appears.
Almost a dead on arrival bit of kit. 😆
KB
I don’t think the election date makes any difference to the prices.
The betting would resemble the form I have expressed at 1871 in case of a Turnbull return.
The betting and the polls will determine the odds on a weekly basis up to the election 😎
If Rudd is getting on top later, it will show. If Rudd gets to the top sooner, it will show.
It’s been a real strange 6 years.
Rudd needed Gillard to get her and his policy strategy implemented.
Ditch the witch
Axe the tax
Turn back the boats
It has taken Rudd two week to implement the Liberals complete policy strategy.
And the funniest thing of all, the Liberal hard right ditched Turnbull to stop the ETS. There reward, we have an ETS. To really get you laughing, the person the the hard right put in is on track to lose his second election.
ST
It is not much use having a memory, IMHO, if for example you ‘remember’ your posts.
RIRO.
dave
‘Workers will end up being screwed as per usual’
Amen brother.
What are the odds then of picking the most accurate of the mainstream opinion polls?
Would better odds be given, at this stage, to say Newspoll rather than Essential?
And what of the others?
Is past performance the main indicator or are there others?
I would think betting odds on the Polls would be fun – that is the ‘winner’ would be the most accurate against the actual poll on the day of the election.
briefly
[This is not about is being “flooded” and it is not about racism. What it is about is the orderly prosecution of our immigration program as well as responding to the demands of our conscience. At last we can free ourselves from the humbug of anachronistic left-ism as well as the opportunist ranting from the right.]
PNG is responding to the demands of ‘our conscience’? Wrong term. Replace that with ‘out inner racist’. This is not about ‘immigration’ anyway. It is about whether or not we honour basic human rights for desperate people fleeing oppression.
What parts of the Refugee Convention definition of ‘refugee’ comprise ‘anachronistic leftism’?
Sean Tisme@1874
Note that Turnbull is $4 on Sportsbet to that Centrebet $5.50.
If the betting markets actually think that a Turnbull leadership would mean a more or less certain Coalition win, then it can be determined from that that they think the chance of Abbott being PM after the next election is only 50-ish%, probably slightly less. Once you take out the implied chance of Abbott failing by Labor winning the election, and the implied chance of Abbott failing by not being the leader, there’s not such a big majority (if any) left to play with.
Tricot
I think Morgan actually got closest to the 50.12% to 49.88% result of the last election.
Tricot@1892
Thankyou. I now remember commenting on it before but I probably won’t be able to find my comment buried in the abyss of old threads!
Detroit is rapidly descending into a sort of post-apocalypse set:
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=images+of+decay,+detroit&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&client=firefox-a&gws_rd=cr
The problem with the betting market analysis is that people are assuming that the punters alwAys act rationally. Bookies generally do but punters can act very irrational at times.
[What are the odds then of picking the most accurate of the mainstream opinion polls?]
Well I can’t give a definitive answer (other than election eve polls, it’d be hard to define who is most correct other than who has had the fewest outliers, I guess), but I know how my poll preference always goes:
Newspoll
Nielsen
Morgan Phone
Galaxy
Essential
Morgan FtF
Still unsure about how much I trust ReachTel.
That is not to say I dismiss the ones at the bottom of the list or blindly trust the ones at the top, I just give more attention to the ones higher on the list.
Morgan sometimes poll on the eve of an election, and that one is often the most accurate of all the polls.
so abbott thinks KR is harder to beat why did they
join the gossip about leadership and encourage it
exactly what I thought , they never thought it would happen
Would the Greens’ refugee policies discriminate against the Dadaabians?
Anyone placing bets on the election is just gambling…oh, that’s right…It reminds me of the definition of risk: just wait a while and you will lose!
The political situation is highly unpredictable. I suspect it’s actually quite difficult to assign accurate probabilities to all the potential outcomes. The usual maxims just don’t apply to the current situation.
davidwh
I think the bookies are generally pretty good though at distinguishing mug money.
my say
It’s probably what some here are hoping with Turnbull.
I say, careful what you wish for?
Centre probably they can but the rational action for bookies to take is to make sure they cover their positions.
Davidwh,
I remember in 2004 the polls said Mark Latham was a shoe-in
The polls meanwhile said Howard would win
Let history be a guide, the betting market usually gets it right
[The usual maxims just don’t apply to the current situation.]
What maxims would they may be?
Oh this will be good?
that should read betting markets said Howard would win.
Polls got it wrong, betting market got it right
davidwh
Theoretically, agreed.
Great – so how would one work out the odds now which one of the pollsters had the best (shortest?) odds of getting closest to the actual polled result?
Not that it matters I suppose but is Morgan, now, at shorter odds than Newspoll to pick the actual number or does Morgan become a shorter place favourite pollster closer to time while Newspoll is closer now?
Fascinating.
How handy it would be to say that Essential are at longer odds than say Newspoll, but Morgan is the shortest of all.
Boy, could you have fun with that!
Sean I doubt either the polls or the betting markets are a good guide at this time. I think it’s going to be an election hard to pick until much closer to the election date. Having said that I wouldn’t be putting money on the Coalition at odds on.
Centre
When in doubt look at Betfair. No single board. No-one setting the whole market; but a whole bunch of individual layers and backers putting their money out there, on their own individual opinions.
[The announcement by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd Friday that asylum seekers who reach Australian waters would be resettled in Papua New Guinea has made prominent news in all major newspapers in Sri Lanka.
Mr Rudd is also on the front page of India’s mass-circulating Hindu, alongside the headline “Australia slams the door on refugees”.
Father Sarath Iddamalgoda, a Catholic priest in Negombo, on Sri Lanka’s west coast, told Fairfax he has seen thousands of people, both Tamil and Sinhalese, board boats for Australia.
He said Australia’s decision would not stop the exodus of refugees from Sri Lanka, it would only move the problem elsewhere.
“I have read about this announcement from Australia. It will not stop people from leaving Sri Lanka, but now they might try for other countries.]
http://www.theage.com.au/world/hard-line-asylum-stance-wont-stop-them-leaving-but-may-stop-them-arriving-20130720-2qawo.html#ixzz2ZZKbsmKe
Tisme
Yes, the bookies smashed it in 2004. Latham was always a long outsider even when he led in the polls.
PNG deal unlikely to comply with international law, according to an international law expert.
http://theconversation.com/rudds-png-plan-unlikely-to-comply-with-international-law-16250
The usual maxims:
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=maxim+gun+image&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&client=firefox-a&gws_rd=cr
[1907….jaundiced view]
The allegation of racism is just false. There is no discrimination here. Refugees and immigrants from every background and creed will continue to be settled here. Those who arrive here by sea and claiming to fear persecution will not be returned, but will be offered protection in a jurisdiction that will assess their status. What’s not to like?
These complaints remind me of Pauline Hanson, though in reverse. They are not directed at reality, but are sensationalist claims promoted to create fear, attract attention and to traduce your political foes. They have no more validity to them than the specious exaggerations and distortions used by One Nation more than a decade ago.
[Just bought a new Network AV Receiver, and new telly. Set it all up, turn it on and bloody Warren Truss appears.]
rua
It obviously comes complete with fuzzy logic.
jv
Yes, it’s a good market. There is no bookmaker with any liability that may need to be offset.
It could be debated as the most accurate market of all if there is enough liquidity.
Still, I’m sure the bookies markets act as a guide 😎
briefly
You haven’t addressed the questions; but have merely loaded up more assertions.
confessions
If, Australia will withdraw from the Convention, I imagine.
The elected arm (whether Abbott or Rudd) is simply not going to continue to put itself at the mercy of the judiciary.
chiz. If so…
Just saw the Nick X fulmination on TV.
On a hiding to nothing there. He said the money should have been spent on other countries.
I think I can guess what the xenophobes would think of that.
Although it is in breach etc, the message will also get through to those here who channel information to would be boat people.
Another Labor move which I thought was noble at the time, but later came to realise it as an enormous handicap for getting the information out. Particularly because the media had all the power to spout against Labor and none of the restraint implicit in getting the advertising dollar.
Centre
Yes the liquidity/volume needs to be there, but that’s the same for all markets. That’s why the individual seat markets mean nothing at all, virtually up to election day.
Okay, the chicken entrails-reading is dull now. When things are this close, the market and the polls can only, at best, be an accurate representation of the present. But the election is anywhere from just over a month, to just over 4 months away. If the price on a Labor win was something like $8 or Labor was trailing 43-57, then it would be fair to say that it’s severely unlikely Labor’d pull a win from here. But at the closeness things are, anything is possible.
Boerwar:
I reckon a coalition govt would withdraw Australia from the convention.
Confessions
I heard something similar on BBC last night but it was in terms of “refugee convention” rather than law.
At the end of the day, a lot of “international law” is such that compliance is not mandatory as there are few sanctions to back anything up.
If the international community cannot bring rogue states to heel then the odd breaking of a refugee convention or law is not going to get much traction.
To take an extreme case, if Oz, refused point blank to take any further refugees of any type, what could anyone really do about it?
I notice the French and the Italians shuffled some rules not so long ago over a bunch of African refugees at one or the other’s border.
Nobody seemed to want to go to war over that.
confessions
[PNG deal unlikely to comply with international law, according to an international law expert.]
http://theconversation.com/rudds-png-plan-unlikely-to-comply-with-international-law-16250
But Emeritus Law Professor sprocket thinks he’s overlooked stuff 🙂 :
[Pity he doesn’t cite S51 of the Constitution or the Migration Act.]
DK
The sound was great, Truss in his element, a tin shed.
John Connor @jconnoroz 34m
June 2013 was the 340th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2467 … #climate
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The PNG Plan does not stop refugees coming to Australia. Oz takes 20,000 per year and those 20,000 will now be genuine refugees as assessed by Un and others. Oz could increase to 27,000 intake.
The PNG Plan is solely about stopping the people smugglers putting people in leaky boats without a care they may drown. The Plan is about stopping the drownings and stopping the trade in human misery.
CM
Agree: In a two horse race, either horse can get up before the wire.
Sorry BK
jv
I don’t really agree with that (that all markets need liquidity and that individual seat markets are worthless).