Bit of a difference of opinion this week between Essential Research, a series renowned for its stability, and the Morgan multi-mode poll which, until now at least, has adhered very closely to the overall polling trend. The former has the Coalition ahead 52-48, as it did last week when it took the unusual step of publishing a figure for the polling period immediately following the leadership change, instead of its usual fortnightly rolling average. The major parties’ primary votes are also unchanged, with Labor on 38% and the Coalition on 46%, while the Greens are down a point to 8%.
Morgan on the other hand gives Labor an eyebrow-raising lead of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 on last time, although on the more trustworthy measure of previous election preferences the result is a slightly less striking 52.5-47.5, up from 51-49. This is the first time the Morgan multi-mode series has produced a substantial disparity between the two measures, and it’s in the opposite direction of the issue which bedevilled the old Morgan face-to-face series, in which preferences flows to Labor were unrealistically weak. The primary votes are 41.5% for Labor (up two), 39.5% for the Coalition (down one) and 8.5% for the Greens (unchanged).
The Essential poll also gauges views on the leaders’ attributes, which should make enjoyable reading for Kevin Rudd, who is widely rated as intelligent, hard-working and capable, and not seen as narrow-minded, intolerant or out of touch. His worst results on negative measures were for arrogant and erratic, while his weakest on positive measures were for honesty, trustworthiness and being visionary. Abbott rated well for hard-working and intelligent, as political leaders generally do, but also scored high for narrow-minded, arrogant and out of touch. Fewer than a third of respondents thought him trustworthy, honest or visionary.
Forty-nine per cent of respondents thought Labor would be more united in the wake of the leadership change, against 14% for less united. Other questions found a general view that the election should be held sooner than later, and produced unsurprising results on asylum seekers, the NBN, mining tax, carbon tax, disability insurance and the education reforms formerly known as Gonski.
Behind the Daily Telegraph paywall – Labor internal polling
[KEVIN Rudd has catapulted Labor back into a potential election-winning position with surprise swings toward Labor suggesting the resurrected PM could not only hold ground for Labor but increase the party’s vote on the 2010 election result.
The first internal Labor polling since Mr Rudd took back the leadership two weeks ago shows Labor ahead of the Coalition in bellwether seats in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
The UMR tracking research report, sections of which have been obtained by The Daily Telegraph, has been conducted over the past 10 days for the ALP. They show that not only has Mr Rudd reversed the 10-15 per cent swings against Labor, for the first time Labor is ahead of the Coalition in several key seats regarded as must wins to form government.
It is the first concrete research for Labor of the “Rudd-effect” and has surprised even hardened campaign officials who have been sceptical about just what impact the former PM would have on Labor’s vote.
In Sydney’s east, the seat of Kingsford Smith held by retiring Schools Minister Peter Garrett – a seat which Labor officials had all but written off – has recovered to put the government ahead on a two party preferred vote of 54 per cent to the Coalition’s 46 per cent.
Labor’s primary vote has recovered to 46 per cent, showing Labor would easily hold the seat under Mr Rudd.
In neighbouring McMahon in Sydney’s southwest, held by the new Treasurer Chris Bowen, Labor is ahead on a two party preferred vote of 52 per cent to 48 per cent.
Labor holds the seat by a margin of just 7.8 per cent.
Until two weeks ago, party officials feared this Labor heartland seat would also be lost to the Coalition.
But the UMR polling shows a swing back to Labor on its 2010 result.
The most stunning turnaround, however, has been in the seat of Isaacs in Victoria, held by Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus. Three weeks ago a shock wave was sent through the Labor caucus when The Daily Telegraph revealed internal Labor polling showing that Mr Dreyfus was to be turfed out of office with swings of 15 per cent against the government.
That has turned around to show Labor on a commanding 52 per cent primary vote compared to the Coalition’s 34 per cent translating into a 62/38 two party preferred vote and rescuing the seat from a potential Labor loss to a safe Labor seat.
The result is a 2 per cent swing to Labor on the 2010 results.
In the Brisbane seat of Moreton, which was all but written off, Labor has recorded a 9 per cent swing toward its primary vote to lead the Coalition 45/40. This translates to 57/43 two party preferred vote in favour of Labor.
The sitting member Graham Perrett famously threatened to quit parliament and potentially bring down the government should Mr Rudd be returned to the leadership. The research shows his seat would now appear safe under Mr Rudd’s leadership.
ALP sources said the results were “surprising” but they also cautioned the results were mixed. South Australia, where Julia Gillard enjoyed strong support, has failed to lift.
And in Barton – in Sydney’s south – the vote had not recovered as well.
“Holding ground in NSW and Victoria, and winning seats in Queensland is the path to victory,” they said.]
This Morgan might be peak Rudd, though.
[If Rudd still only has 43% approval but 22% lead in PPM, I dare say Abbott’s approvals stink to high heaven this week.]
WTF happens when Rudd announces a popular policy like ‘scrapping’ the carbon tax? 🙂
We now know why Abbott did 7:30.
There is panic over there in Abbottoland
You’re right Guytaur
They just don’t know where to put themselves. Everything was going so beautifully until two weeks ago, and now it’s unravelling way faster than they can devise new talking points.
[ALP sources said the results were “surprising” but they also cautioned the results were mixed. South Australia, where Julia Gillard enjoyed strong support, has failed to lift.]
Stuff S.A.! Labor won’t win or lose the election in S.A.
[Shows, I don’t believe it would work that way. Just like in 2010 if Abbott can block legislation it makes him look strong and Rudd look weak. The narrative instantly changes from what you have now with Rudd looking instantly above the fray, to reminders of Rudd promising lots of stuff and then not delivering.]
Even if it is called “The Carbon Tax Repeal Bill 2013”? 🙂
Z
[Peak Rudd? Ummmmmm, we had polls before change of leadership.]
And if you check then you’ll see that 3 weeks ago they showed exactly this, 50/50 if Rudd returned. It’s Peak, Honeymoon, and I’m with the bookies (Rudd $4.00). I’m predicting 53/47 to Libs at end of July and trending. Then what … back to Gillard?
gloryconsequence@697
Not necessarily. Rudd may still have an elevated undecided rate – and even if not, there were some polls with similar ratings not long after the last election where Abbott’s netsats weren’t so bad.
But I doubt Abbott’s ratings will have improved much on the moderately bad results he’s been getting lately.
[And if you check then you’ll see that 3 weeks ago they showed exactly this, 50/50 if Rudd returned. It’s Peak, Honeymoon, and I’m with the bookies (Rudd $4.00). I’m predicting 53/47 to Libs at end of July and trending. Then what … back to Gillard?]
Why is Kevin Rudd preferred PM over Abbott?
On a national 50-50 I donr think we’d see any seats lost or gained in SA.
Perhaps Rudd is due for a delayed sophomore surge?
Mick, bookies always play lag, watch the change in the next 2 days.
Maybe my local member John Murphy is back in the mix to win his seat. I should be happy about that…apparently.
Cheers Kevin – you know more than I 🙂
Mick77
I hope you are around at the end of July so you can eat your own words.
I reckon if anyone’s inclined to have a punt, jump on current odds of about $4 for a Labor win. Those odds cannot possibly last with poll after poll confirming what we all knew – that Abbott is heavily on the nose, and that Rudd is in with a very real chance of victory.
Its going to be interesting to see how much the polls go up due to today’s Labor reform announcement. Even if you think its window dressing.
hehe 🙂
Goodnight
Ah yes the Bookies !!!
Yep Tommy Waterhouse and his mates are rarely wrong aren’t they ?
I mean look at last years Granny, they had the Dawks as almost unbackable favorites, and didn’t that turn out Great ?
I see no way that Rudd can win seats from LNP whereas LNP gets Lyne, New England, Dobell and probably Corangamite even at Peak Rudd (50/50).
[But I doubt Abbott’s ratings will have improved much on the moderately bad results he’s been getting lately.]
This even newspoll will shift attention to Abbott, so expect some stunts.
Tom H
[I hope you are around at the end of July so you can eat your own words.]
I will be; I hope you will also be here to groan.
[I see no way that Rudd can win seats from LNP whereas LNP gets Lyne, New England, Dobell and probably Corangamite even at Peak Rudd (50/50).]
LOL! So you’re using the “argument from personal incredulity”.
Just because you don’t think something is true therefore it isn’t true.
50/50 nationally could conceal a decent swing to Labor in QLD, which could mean a swag of seats. 50/50 on election day could go either way, or even a hung parliament.
Abbott is the LNP’s Latham.
[Mick77
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 11:43 pm | PERMALINK
I see no way that Rudd can win seats from LNP]
Ummm…….Have you heard of this little place called Queensland?
I got on labor at $6 two months ago and am looking for a nice little earner out of that. Laid down $200.
Mick, time to re-boot at Menzies House for further marching orders.
@Mick77/718
Queensland is a strange place and they had a taste of LNP Gov badly.
Also NSW to some extent, perhaps WA?
[Abbott is the LNP’s Latham.]
If he loses from the position he was in he would go down as the Liberals’ Latham with Hewson characteristics. 🙂
Mick77
“I’m predicting 53/47 to Libs at end of July and trending.”
This is a safe prediction but we’re living in a time when safe predictions have a way of falling flat on their faces. I personally do not see how Abbott can reinvent himself to the extent he will seem like a credible or likeable alternate to Rudd and I simply can’t see Abbott winning on election night.
Abbott would have run been running laps around Labor if Gillard had stayed on but she’s old news. Abbott needs a circuit-breaker and soon. As he’s already at the bottom of the negativity barrel he can’t go any deeper and an attempt to be positive will be seen as thoroughly inauthentic given the last few years. What can he do?
Abbott’s fucked. That’s my prediction.
Mod Lib
Yes Qld is in Oz but on a 50/50 headline result (which is Rudd’s peak) I don’t see any net gains anywhere for Rudd, to put it more accurately. And anyway I don’t see 50/50 holding for him from hereon. He’s talked the hindleg off the ass which is his forte, and now we have a period of non-delivery ahead – classic Rudd.
[This is a safe prediction but we’re living in a time when safe predictions have a way of falling flat on their faces. I personally do not see how Abbott can reinvent himself to the extent he will seem like a credible or likeable alternate to Rudd …]
This seems to be Abbott’s problem. People have an idea of his key characteristics and they don’t really like what they see.
Jesus twaddle, this is a family site.
[Yes Qld is in Oz but on a 50/50 headline result (which is Rudd’s peak) I don’t see any net gains anywhere for Rudd,]
WTF are you going on about? We have two polls with Rudd as leader that have state breakdownas and they show a 5% swing to Labor! If uniform that’s enough to net 8 or 9 seats!
[…to put it more accurately. And anyway I don’t see 50/50 holding for him from hereon.]
So in other words you think the figures you have pulled from your arse are more convincing to you than the actual figures from actual polls.
[He’s talked the hindleg off the ass which is his forte, and now we have a period of non-delivery ahead – classic Rudd.]
And people are saying they prefer that to the idea of making Abbott PM!
It’s got to bad to be you at this stage.
Mick is the latest incantation of the Iraqi minister for communication i see…
According to Simon Benson in The Daily Telegraph tomorrow, ALP internal polling is showing them ahead in seats they need to win in order to win the election. If this is accurate, we should see it become clear in the next set of polls in the coming weeks
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/internal-labor-polling-shows-kevin-rudds-return-has-the-alp-in-potential-election-winning-position/story-e6frg6n6-1226676186119
@Mick77/728
Ummm, “talking the hindleg off the ass” I think that is Abbott, when he’s not running away from the press.
Mick, the people who switched straight away were people whose issue was that Rudd wasn’t leading Labor. All he has to do is be himself and he’ll keep them.
ShowsOn@677
He’s also not Julia Gillard! 😀
Mick
Have you read Possum Comitus’ article analysing state by state seat numbers from the aggregation of the previous polls? They clearly showed Labor picking up seats in Qld, due to the low vote there last time.
Logically, if Labor’s vote is down in some States (eg NSW and WA) then it must be up elsewhere if the result is back to 50/50. The obvious elsewhere is Qld and Vic.
Oils aint oils as they say, and a 50:50 cannot be assumed to mean that every seat is a toss-up and we will end up with another 73 all result.
If the 50-50 is made up of a swing to the ALP in Qld (even a small one) and a status quo or small swing to the ALP in NSW, the ALP absolutely could win seats there and hold onto their seats in SA, Vic and Tasmania and win the election.
I am not saying this is what I expect to happen, but it is a dead set possibility that would not be unbelievable by any stretch of the imagination. We are in the ALP 65 to 85 seat territory now and if the current leaders stay, it will depend on how they perform, and how tightly those behind them stick to / with them.
The 50/50 isn’t too bad but the Coalition won’t win with a primary vote around 42%. I don’t trust that Others will split 60/40 to the Coalition.
You can tell some Liberals are getting nervous because Mark Textor, the Liberals’ main pollster, started posting about polls! Normally he writes mundane things about cycling.
So davidwh is it Malcolm’s turn again?
Rudd and team will right now be gaming a Turnbull return, just in case. In the event Labor pull ahead in the polls.
The dilemma for the Libs is at what level do they pull the pin on Abbott. If Labor poll 52/48 it still in striking distance for them. I guess Libs will be internal polling on Turnbull/Hockey.
[We are in the ALP 65 to 85 seat territory now and if the current leaders stay, it will depend on how they perform, and how tightly those behind them stick to / with them.]
If the polls are stuck at 50/50 during the last week of the campaign I think Labor will win majority government by a few seats because swing voters in marginal seats will be more likely to vote Labor and stick with Rudd as PM rather than going with Abbott who is seen as a risk.
The problem for the LNP is figuring out what they might do to arrest and then reverse their slide. Abbott’s numbers have reverted to their former terrible levels, so he is unlikely to lift them. And they have no policies at all. They have nothing at all to run with. They are paying the price of nearly four years of relentlessly negative politics.
While the politics of personal destruction worked on JG, the conflict also fatally tainted Abbott himself. He is disliked, distrusted and even despised. They might plan to try to defame Rudd, there is just no certainty this will work for them. For a start, the public are really sick of the contumely. In any case, the attacks on Rudd by his colleagues over the years have clearly failed to seriously harm his standing with the public. There is not much chance that Liberal-sponsored re-runs will succeed where the original criticisms have already failed.
So if they cannot tear Rudd down, have no respectable alternative PM, and no policies, what will they do? It is too early to say whether we’ve seen peak Rudd or peak ALP. But one thing is absolutely certain: we’re well past peak Abbott.
They will be thinking whether they can stand to revive Turnbull – a person who led them into division and collaboration with Labor in 2009, and who shares little but mutual disdain with most of his colleagues.
I doubt it Lucky. You would need to see a sustained lead to Labor before that was even considered. Personally I don’t think there is sufficient time left for a change in LOTO.
[Rudd and team will right now be gaming a Turnbull return, just in case. In the event Labor pull ahead in the polls]
I really doubt this is the case. They are trying to reconfigure the national campaign which up until 2 weeks ago had given up trying to win any seat on a margin under 6 or 7%.
Now in QLD they are printing a heap of RUDD 4 QLD signs 🙂
Will we deluged with policies from the Coalition?
Or will Rabbott’s Coalition stay on form and start throwing mud to slow the momentum?
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Newspoll Rudd: Approve 43 (+7) Disapprove 36 (0) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 28s
#Newspoll Abbott: Approve 35 (0) Disapprove 56 (0) #auspol
[Rudd: Approve 43 (+7) Disapprove 36 (0)]
[Abbott: Approve 35 (0) Disapprove 56 (0)]