Seat of the week: Dobell

The central coast New South Wales seat of Dobell has mostly been in Labor’s hands since its creation in 1984, but the travails of sitting member Craig Thomson have presumably raised the bar on their chances of retaining it again this time.

Held by troubled Labor-turned-independent MP Craig Thomson, Dobell covers the urban areas around Tuggerah Lake just beyond the northern coastal reaches of Sydney, including the coastal retirement haven of The Entrance, lower income Wyong on the interior side, the tourist area from Bateau Bay south through Wamberal to Terrigal, the demographically unremarkable northern Gosford suburbs of Lisarow and Wyoming, and state forest further inland. Terrigal and its immediate surrounds are strong for the Liberals, forming the basis of a fairly safe seat at state level, while the Gosford area and the electorate’s central and northern regions have traditionally been finely balanced.

Dobell was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984 and held from then until 2001 by Michael Lee, who served in cabinet through the final term of the Keating government. Lee survived a 6.7% swing amid Labor’s 1996 election defeat to hold on by 117 votes, but a 1.8% redistribution shift in favour of the Liberals would prove decisive at the 2001 election, when Liberal candidate Ken Ticehurst picked up a 1.9% swing to prevail by 560 votes. Ticehurst substantially consolidated his hold with a 5.5% swing at the 2004 election, but even this proved insufficient to stave off an 8.7% swing to Labor in 2007.

The seat has since been held by Thomson, who had previously been national secretary of the Health Services Union. The first intimation of the trouble that awaited Thomson came with allegations his union credit card had been used to misappropriate around $100,000 for purposes including payment to a Sydney brothel, which he claimed had been fabricated amid a backdrop of internal warfare within the union’s Victorian branch. After surviving a preselection challenge by local union official David Mehan, Thomson became one of only four New South Wales Labor MPs to pick up a swing at the 2010 election, his margin increasing from 3.9% to 5.1%. However, his political career began to unravel the following June after he withdrew a defamation against The Age over its reporting of the credit card allegations. A lengthy Fair Work Australia investigation into the union ended with civil proceedings being launched against Thomson in October 2012, with fraud and theft charges following in early 2013.

Thomson’s membership of the ALP was suspended in April 2012, and in May he announced he had resigned from the party to stand as an independent. After delaying preselection proceedings until this time, Labor finally endorsed Trevor Drake, a former deputy mayor of Gosford who had been a Liberal Party member between 2004 and 2008. Drake emerged as the only candidate when nominations closed, with earlier named contenders having included Wyong Hospital executive Emma McBride (whose father Grant McBride is a former state member for The Entrance), former state Wyong MP David Harris, Wyong Shire councillor Lisa Matthews and the aforementioned candidate from 2010, David Mehan.

An initial Liberal Party preselection in December 2011 was won by Gary Whitaker, former Hornsby Shire councillor and managing director of a local educational services company. Whitaker prevailed over WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara, in what was reported as a defeat for the Right faction forces associated with state upper house MP David Clarke and the locally powerful member for Terrigal, Chris Hartcher. However, Whitaker soon faced trouble over allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. The following April, the party’s state executive voted to dump Whitaker as candidate and install McNamara in his place.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,142 comments on “Seat of the week: Dobell”

Comments Page 3 of 43
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  1. [ On climate change Abbott has stood by his word.

    he stated that “Climate change is crap” ]

    All Abott has to do is rename his “Direct Action” policy to …

    Carbon
    Reduction
    Action
    Plan

    Perhaps Abbott is smarter than we give him credit for? … Nah!

  2. [The evidence is there all you need to do is pull your head out of your proverbial.]

    That is the liberal party line, and that is one of the reasons the prosecution should be thrown out of court as an abuse of process. Then there should be a royal commission into the politicisation of the police forces by the Liberal Party.

  3. Another US move backfires.

    “@tweetminster: RT @BBCBreaking: Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro offers US fugitive Edward Snowden asylum, following similar offer from Nicaragua”

    Whoever the bright spark was that blocked Bolivia from flying across Europe is will be sacked is my guess

  4. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the unhinging as it dawns on the Fibs that their boy Tony loses the unlosebale election.
    It will make 1993 look like a Sunday School picknic

  5. [Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, July 6, 2013 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    ..

    The evidence is there all you need to do is pull your head out of your proverbial.]

    If it is thrown out of court (which is looking likely) it really doesn’t matter what you think of the evidence or where I park my head.

  6. GM cannot be eradicated in Tassie.
    http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2013/07/06/575813_grain-and-hay.html
    [GENETICALLY modified canola plants continue to sprout in Tasmanian fields where trials finished more than 15 years ago.

    The Tasmanian Government concedes the rogue GM plants could continue to surface for decades, despite spending $250,000 a year since 2001 on eradication, The Mercury reports.

    Coal River Valley winemaker Tony Scherer fears the herbicide-resistant plants may have cross-pollinated with related weed species and escaped into the environment.

    “It’s a nightmare — you can’t contain it,” Mr Scherer said.]

    Easy solution – call in Abbott’s Green Army 😛

  7. Sean Tisme

    Posted Saturday, July 6, 2013 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    What is going to happen when the whole thing is thrown out of court, which is looking very likely.

    You guys have been making these stupid conspiracy theorist predictions for ages now and have been wrong on every count.

    The evidence is there all you need to do is pull your head out of your proverbial.
    ———————————————————-

    it is slowly becoming less. Started out as $100’s of thousands then $150K, then went to $100k now its down to $46k…….less than what Abbott claimed in travel and accommodation allowances when on his “charity” bike rides. The only charity Abbott was supporting was Tony Abbott

  8. AussieAchmed,

    The police get you on the stuff they have hard indisputable evidence on.

    And I wouldn’t call 170 seperate charges “nothing”

    The problem with you Labor voters is you are blinded by your ideology you can’t see what is directly in front of you. Craig Thomson can explain why his scanned drivers license was at the brothels and if he has someone that looks like a dead ringer for him what their name is. Oh yes and name names OUTSIDE of parliamentary priveledge… don’t be a gutless wonder.

  9. [I’m assuming the Ramplin who wrote that article is the same person I follow on twitter. This is a telling part:]

    Thanks Fess.

    What amazed me about The G article was Ramplin’s return to political journalism’s “robustness” – a norm from my childhood (when The (old red/pink-cover) Bulletin was still being read to rags from Darwin to Perth – which seemed to disappear with the 1980s; to be replaced by This is my/ my editor’s/ my MSM mogul’s personally preferred political opinion & propaganda journalism.

    I grew up when newspaper “columns” had more in common with a “robust” Parliamentary debate, or “gloves off” QT. An individual publication might be (many frequently were) of an obvious political stance; but it was balanced by other publications of the other political stance – eg reporting’s early WW I (pre-Conscription plebiscites) Print Wars (inc Cartoonist Wars) between The Sun’s Charles Bean & Keith Murdoch, and The Bulletin.

    Equally obvious is the “dumbing down” of TV political reportage & satire; from a time of thorough, investigative, but balanced (ie both sides “copped it”) and It’s all about exposing the interviewee’s stances, opinion and influences “Current Affairs” and those who hosted them, to today’s often (?usually) aggressively partisan, “Gottcha”It’s all about ME, the Interviewer, and MY badgering the interviewee into validating MY views.

    Aussies’ becoming more and more disillusioned by their MSM (shown in declining print sales & static, even falling eg some on, ABC TV audiences) at a time when internet-based technology – including language translation services foe major publications – have seen the Globalisation of both traditional MSM and non-traditional citizen journalism, unlimited by media barons, editors, and Press “group-speak”: a non-trad media which is instant, unfiltered, anarchic, addictive; in which an incident/ event can go viral internationally; not in days or weeks, but in a few hours – and without readers & writers having to pay a cent (or its equivalent) other that their IT “plan’s” costs.

    Guardian Oz writers & their articles owe no loyalty to Murdoch, Fairfax, public broadcasters AN/ ABC/ SBS, or to the owners/publishers of Oz magazines & TV channels. They are hired, published & paid by a Trust with a Charter encouraging free, fearless, truthful & literate journalism. It often publishes articles on issues Oz MSM ignore – although Fairfax sometimes published, but days later.

    And it seems to get bolder by the day.

  10. [AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, July 6, 2013 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    ..
    to $46k…….less than what Abbott claimed in travel and accommodation allowances when on his “charity” bike rides. The only charity Abbott was supporting was Tony Abbott]

    The last figure I saw as $26K when the magistrate refused to move it to a higher court stating that figure as well under the half a million that can be dealt with by a magistrate’s court.

    It is seems to be pretty much down to the question “does the company pay for incidentals like “meals and monies” while you travel for company business. If the answer is no a lot of us are in serious trouble.

  11. OPT:

    I don’t think Ramplin is a journalist, although I could be wrong.

    If so, is probably why her commentary is so insightful.

  12. Whats happening in the Brough/Ashby conspiracy?

    All seems to have gone quiet in the media. Or is that only because Murdoch media are to chicken to report it?

  13. “The problem with you Labor voters is you are blinded by your ideology you can’t see what is directly in front of you”

    ROTLMAO !!!

    Irony is not your strong point, is it Seaney ?

  14. [Sit back, relax, and enjoy the unhinging as it dawns on the Fibs that their boy Tony loses the unlosebale election.
    It will make 1993 look like a Sunday School picknic]

    Yes, Gold. Not to mention the pre-poll unravelling. Its hard to come back to competing when youve been in cruise mode.

    I think they’re starting to choke already, looking for lazy KOs, but they’re arent any. Rudd dances like a butterfly, stings like a bee in Jakarta. I expect a few more haymakers which dont connect.

  15. Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, July 6, 2013 at 10:35 am | Permalink
    [
    AussieAchmed,

    The police get you on the stuff they have hard indisputable evidence on.

    And I wouldn’t call 170 seperate charges “nothing”

    ]

    It’s not ofter you see a charge of “buying an icecream”

    As I said, if the court throws this out it really doesn’t matter if you consider “buying an icecream” to be a significant crime or not.

    The interesting point will be where costs get awarded.

  16. Sean,

    You need to follow the story about Craig Thomsen not regurgitate stuff stated over 12 months ago by a clearly biased MSM. He’s only been charged with incidental expenses – this week considered questionable according to the magistrate!
    You’d be there cheering if a so called “witch” was drowned because you clearly know a “witch hunt” when it’s right in front of you.
    Ask your mate Abbott to justify his so-called expenses instead of sitting in judgement with your lack of up-to-date facts.

  17. Yesiree Bob@106


    Sit back, relax, and enjoy the unhinging as it dawns on the Fibs that their boy Tony loses the unlosebale election.
    It will make 1993 look like a Sunday School picknic

    Unless there is a quick polling surge back to abbott they will both panic and really get down dirty and nasty – which may make things even worse.

    Blowtorch on the belly stuff abbott, then the calls to switch to ‘the earl’ which many libs don’t want under any circumstances.

    Next month or more of poll results will be fascinating.

    No policies and the theme of abbott running away is getting rolling.

  18. Player One

    Posted Saturday, July 6, 2013 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    On climate change Abbott has stood by his word.

    he stated that “Climate change is crap”

    All Abott has to do is rename his “Direct Action” policy to …

    Carbon
    Reduction
    Action
    Plan

    Perhaps Abbott is smarter than we give him credit for? … Nah!
    ———————————————————

    Carbon
    Reduction
    Action
    Plan

    very good…..describes the policy very well…what do you reckon Sean…..???????????

  19. Hey Sean come to Hervey Bay, we can have a coffee together and discuss our “expense” accounts. But watch out we might get charged by the police if the LieNP are out to get us.

  20. [Unless there is a quick polling surge back to abbott they will both panic and really get down dirty and nasty – which may make things even worse.]

    Shut up you silly idiots, we can’t afford another 3 years of this Labor rabble!

    People will remember Rudd the Dudd very shortly!

  21. Sean Tisme@131


    Unless there is a quick polling surge back to abbott they will both panic and really get down dirty and nasty – which may make things even worse.


    Shut up you silly idiots, we can’t afford another 3 years of this Labor rabble!

    People will remember Rudd the Dudd very shortly!

    Oooo!

    truthy doesn’t like it up him.

    Ya going to need that passport soon sunshine.

    Tories out of power for another 3 years.

  22. Yes Sean, We can’t afford even 6 months of the “rabble” occupying the Opposition front bench. No policies except the new C R A P (Green Policy) mentioned earlier. They constantly lie about everything and then you spew their lies out as facts.
    How come you’re not more discerning, Sean? Maybe you’ve got an MA from Oxford too?

  23. [How come you’re not more discerning, Sean? Maybe you’ve got an MA from Oxford too?]

    All Truthy has is a fishing and gaming license and a tinnie which he can row as far away from these shores if Labor win. It’d be funny though if he heads north west and is turned around by the Indonesian navy and set on a course to Christmas Island

  24. [shellbell
    Posted Saturday, July 6, 2013 at 10:51 am | Permalink

    It’s not ofter you see a charge of “buying an icecream”

    There is no such charge against Thomson.]

    Well it is was supposed to be a major scandel it is now back to $26,000, it is pretty hard to keep track of what charges came and went.

    If the charges get thrown out, it realy doesn’t matter what the trivia was. There is going to be a lot of questions to answer, and they will not be questions for Thomson (spelt with out a p).

  25. Sean – you are saying Australia cant afford another 3 years of this;
    3 x Triple A rating
    Low unemployment
    Low inflation
    Low debt to GDP ratio
    Low interest rates
    Increasing productivity
    Continual growth

    Along with policies such as Disability Care, Gonski, ETS.

    But we can afford
    The Northern (wet) dream of dams
    Abbotts Carbon reduction plan (CRAP)
    Increased GST
    Increased cost of living and inflation brought on by his PPL
    Loss of superannuation for 3.7 million low paid workers

  26. YB – What’s going to make it even more wonderful is that Abbott’s been leading by the length of the straight for so long. So when he senses that victory might escape him, he is going to do the biggest choke of all times. It will be Greg Norman at Augusta all over again.

  27. Good one KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN – Abbott – the biggest choke, the biggest joke, do you think we can ever trust such a bloke?

  28. TOM – And when Political Animal’s grandkids ask him what he did during the greatest election comeback in Australia history, he’ll be able to put them on his knee and say “I paid the $20 fine so I didn’t have to vote”.

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