Two further additions to the already voluminous Labor retirements list since my last preselection review:
• Greg Combet is calling it a day after two eventful terms as member for the Hunter region seat of Charlton. Mentioned as possible successors are Pat Conroy, whose background as a staffer to Combet, George Campbell and Anthony Albanese, and as an official with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and CFMEU, is detailed in The Australian; Daniel Wallace, a local organiser with the AMWU; and Sonia Hornery, who represents the local area in the state parliament as member for Wallsend.
• Simon Crean is calling it a day after 23 years as member for the south-eastern Melbourne seat of Hotham. Michelle Grattan in The Conversation reports the seat is effectively reserved for the Right, with Bracks government adviser Rosemary Barker spruiking backing from factional figurehead Stephen Conroy as well as a base of support from the Australian Workers Union. Also mentioned is Geoff Lake, a Minter Ellison lawyer and former Australian Local Government Association who shares Crean’s association with the National Union Workers.
Another two vacancies have been resolved:
• David Feeney has emerged victorious in the contest to succeed Martin Ferguson in Batman, after defeating Left candidate Mary-Anne Thomas by 383 votes to 247 in the local party ballot on Sunday. The matter was to be settled the following evening when the state party’s public office selection committee to determine its 50% share of the overall vote, but Thomas rendered this a formality by withdrawing.
• Alannah MacTiernan, senior Gallop/Carpenter state government minister and more recently the mayor of Vincent, is now confirmed as Labor’s candidate to succeed Stephen Smith in Perth after two other mooted contenders – Tim Hammond, a barrister who ran unsuccessfully in Swan at the 2010 election, and Matthew Keogh, a lawyer with Freehills – chose not to nominate.
And some developments in two further preselection races:
• Tony Bowen, mayor of Randwick and son of Hawke era deputy prime minister Lionel Bowen, has emerged as a second candidate for the preselection to succeed Peter Garrett in Kingsford Smith. Bowen says he has nominated despite being told “in no uncertain terms” not to run by the state party’s head office, which is evidently very keen on the candidacy of Senator Matt Thistlethwaite.
• The preselection for Craig Emerson’s southern Brisbane seat of Rankin looms as a contest between Brett Raguse, who won the outer Brisbane seat of Forde in 2007 before joining Labor’s Queensland casualty list in 2010 (and who claims the support of Kevin Rudd), and Jim Chalmers, a former chief of staff to Wayne Swan.
Rudd could say that Abbott will make Australia an international disgrace, an embarassment and bring shame on the country.
When he says these things about the opposition you know the govt has given up all pretense of winning the election.
============================================================
connfessions , your sentence makes no sence
why shouldn’t the pm say that,
shake head, how strange
or are we still bashing kev on this site now
I just caught up with the reporting of Rudd’s Indonesian trip, which appears to have been extremely successful. A clear statement pointing out that Tony Abbottt’s policy is nonsense and an agreement to look at beef imports.
TP is correct – under international law Australia has no right to tow boats back to Indonesia, or anywhere else. If we pick them up at sea they become our problem. We could only depart from that with the agreement of the Indonesians. Therefore unless the coalition can prove it has an agreement with Indonesia in place to enforce their policy, it is impossible. The onus of proof is on Abbott.
Best Performer
Elbo …by far
________________
Albanese has been given a talent performance on the media…great on radio 3AW and later on the ABC…amusing relaxed and informed…he is a tower of strength for Rudd..and a vast improvement on boring old Swannie
a clever operator and real jewel for Rudd
[Well it’s been great and I’ll see you all on election night when it’ll be back to 54-46 to Libs or maybe worse for Labor if Rudd waits too long. Don’t believe me; convince yourselves that Abbott isn’t smart and that Rudd is the saviour. Enjoy. And then we can enjoy the next 3 years bagging the Liberal govt which they’ll probably deserve but right now Labor deserves everything bad that’s coming to them. ‘Nite]
So why is Rudd preferred PM over Abbott if Abbott is so great?
No source. It’s just pretty obvious he will.
RE #1154 its the unicorns Shows On
gc:
Psephos commented earlier that it appeared the govt would go to an early election owing to the new leader’s personality and that the public might twig to it and turn off the govt.
A mistake IMO, but if that’s what they decide, then they will have to live with the consequences.
@GC/1155
From what I read you need 1 month ? for a election, so if the election is called, say August 24, then July 24 would be the date it has to be done.
Someone can correct me.
Rudd.
Abbott counter-challenged today for a debate on the HIP and what the then govt knew and to release all the relevant communication.
I expect the debate stunt will be quietly filed away.
———————————————————
what makes you think its a stunt by rudd,
I think he is very serious, I don’t remember rudd doing any stunts in 2007
do you?
or are we still in the land of nod
The Age coverage of the Indonesian trip is pretty clear on Abbott’s policy:
[Indonesia has delivered a rebuke to Tony Abbott’s turn-back-the-boats policy, signing a communique warning against unilateral action.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/jakarta-spurns-abbotts-turnbackboats-plan-20130705-2phlj.html#ixzz2YBAAuJYg
[Looks like Rudd will hold off on the election.
A mistake IMO.]
Labor was a very very long way behind when Rudd came in, there is a huge gap to close.
If the polling or internal polling shows there is a trend upwards then they will stick with it as long as they are able I think.
I don’t a Rudd boost will be so much of a honeymoon period but a return to some equilibrium for him.
Those that waited for Rudd will come back over to Labor in dribs and drabs, the youth apparently are interested again so he will need to let as many of them register and get connected with him again. And I hardly think they will be too fond of Abbott.
Also the long Rudd goes the more exposed Abbott is since the public may be starting to pay attention they will see that Abbott is just about naked policy and competence wise. Abbott can’t wait to get to an election because he now feels very exposed. Heck they even bought back Howard to help out the minute Rudd appeared.
I don’t know but you would think they would be doing heaps of internal polling to gauge where things are headed, yes?
[gloryconsequence
Posted Friday, July 5, 2013 at 11:50 pm | Permalink
No source. It’s just pretty obvious he will.]
And why is it pretty obvious; because a lot of smart people think it is the correct thing to do?
Coalition Party also have been calling for an election, so you would given into the Coalition Party by going for an early election.
Steve777
[The ABC should call the program by its correct name. It would, of course, be OK to refer to ‘Pink Batts’ to give it its common name.]
1. AIUI, that’s a product name rather than a category — most of the ‘batts’ weren’t pink.
2. Some were foil — and these were the source of much of the problem.
Pink was chosen because ‘pink batts’
a) are well known
AND
b) sound sillier — like Pink Panther or Pink elephants — and so were good for lampooning HIP.
You’re right My Say. When it comes to stunts, no-one surpasses Field Marshall Tony
Gloryconsequence
Going early would be a massive mistake. The ALP are getting donations and a membership surge now. Plus they need to formulate a ground game for victory. That takes time and the longer this goes, the more trust Rudd can build with voters, the more frames he can establish and the more tired and stupid the Coalition will look.
seems like u have jumped ship connie
I thought u would get be hind the gov,
I never saw u as poster who would
live in the past.
we can will this election, if we al pull together people read blogs
twitter is very much more enlightened no negative talk
they moved on very quickly with the help of labor mps who are all over the show
I am surprised you havent
GC
Another reason for going later. More contracts signed for Clean Energy Finance. Remember how the LNP have been squealing at those.
More NBN rollout.
I do not understand why anyone other than Tony Abbott or his supporters would want the election called earlier. It would look like a panicked move.
My view is Rudd was a one man show the first time around. If he has worked out that having a team helps then it really doesn’t matter they will bed down and get the job done.
If he wants to once again run a one man show then the sooner the better. Get the election done and chuck him out again.
Rudd will need to attend to regional AS summit.
Forget Tony, he is irrelevant.
It seems I need to provide a statistics lesson.
It does not have to be 50% who are bellow average IQ.
It could be more or less.
Averages are moved by outliers.
Average IQs are calculated by adding up all the IQs and dividing by the number of IQs.
If their are of people with very low IQs out of proportion with those of high IQs then the majority of the population will have above average IQs.
If on the other hand there are people with very high IQs out of proportion with those of low IQs then the majority of the population will have bellow average IQs.
One of the best examples of this is the average number of legs. Because the number of people with less that 2 legs is significant and the number of people with more than 2 legs is insignificant, the average number of legs is bellow 2.
Saying 50% of the population have bellow average IQs makes people look like they have confused average (mean) and median. The median IQ is calculated by lining up all the IQs in order and finding the middle point. This means that at least 50% of the population have IQs at or bellow the median IQ and vice-versa. If the median number is common then more than 50% of the population can be at or bellow the average.
To use the leg example from above, the median number of legs is 2 and at least 99.99% of the population have at or bellow the median number of legs.
And of course Rudd and his Minister could be develop a policy to keep in the back pocket on industrial safety, a compensation fund etc etc…to smash the issue with a sledge hammer, if needed.
Another reason to delay the election a little is voter registration. Getup said there we almost one million (over 5%) eligible to vote adults, mostly young, NOT on the electoral role. This is obviously due to the unpopularity of both major parties at present, but there is probably more gain for Labor here. Getting those people engaged in politics again and registered could get Labor 1% of the vote.
Night all.
An eg. of what My Say is talking about.
“@CraigEmersonMP: Night all. Will reply to most recent tweets tomorrow. My column in The Weekend Australian is about pigs. Seriously. Happy to discuss.”
Tony Abbott has snuffed out any remaining chance a Federal coalition government would help pay for the Barnett Government’s two urban rail projects after confirming yesterday his focus was on rail freight and roads.
During the State election it emerged the Liberals were banking on the Commonwealth paying 80 per cent of the $1.895 billion airport rail link project and 50 per cent of the $1.8 billion MAX light rail project.
Yesterday, Mr Barnett conceded it was harder without Federal funding but accepted Mr Abbott’s position and maintained the rail projects would be built.
If it had been Labor that aid “No” Colon would have more to say..two faced lying Liberal pr–k
[My view is Rudd was a one man show the first time around. If he has worked out that having a team helps then it really doesn’t matter they will bed down and get the job done.]
I really think the best way to frame the election for Labor is Rudd V Abbott. This is a complete turn around from 2 weeks ago when every Labor campaign in the country was doing its best to run away from the party leader.
Rudd is perhaps the most popular Labor MP in the country.
Goodnight
I personally think the longer it goes, the more shine rubs off, and the more exposure the Government gets from the mainstream media. Anyone expecting the heat to all of a sudden be placed on Abbott for an extended period of time is kidding themselves.
I say strike now – call it for August 24 – slim chance of a win, but near guarantee of being close enough for a crack in 2016.
Go later, I think a loss is far more likely, of decent size too.
[Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 2m
.@m_herbert @Julia_Stirling It’s true that the country wasn’t ready for Australia’s first female PM – but will be more ready for the second.]
True, and very sad.
my say
Posted Friday, July 5, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink
Rudd.
Abbott counter-challenged today for a debate on the HIP and what the then govt knew and to release all the relevant communication.
I expect the debate stunt will be quietly filed away.
———————————————————
what makes you think its a stunt by rudd,
I think he is very serious, I don’t remember rudd doing any stunts in 2007
do you?
or are we still in the land of nod
———————————————————
rAbbott still proving that as a Rhodes Scholar with a degree in economics he is too gutless to debate Rudd with his BA in Asian Studies on economics…..dur
Gusface is back on twitter. I hope the personal issues he was facing are under control.
@GC/1179
We really don’t know what he will be doing, he could leave the date as is.
[Tom the first and best
Posted Saturday, July 6, 2013 at 12:01 am | Permalink
It seems I need to provide a statistics lesson.
It does not have to be 50% who are bellow average IQ.]
Actually if you want to get technical; I only wanted to bug the Liberal hacks; who all seemed to leave at the same time.
If the distribution of the measure has a standard distribution (the definition of IQ is based on that assumption), then the mean, medium, mode and average have the same value, and 50% of the distribution is below all 4.
gusface would be welcome again.
Just let your lesser humans leave him alone!
[Gusface is back on twitter. I hope the personal issues he was facing are under control]
Explain?
Shows,
If you need explaining then you are in new territory.
You have been on PB long enough and are trolling.
[Shows,
If you need explaining then you are in new territory.
You have been on PB long enough and are trolling.]
You’re not allowed to accuse people of trolling on this site.
You’ve been on this site long enough, you should know the rules by now.
[You’re not allowed to accuse people of trolling on this site.]
Only for trolls.
You have avoided the issue, yet again.
[Only for trolls.
You have avoided the issue, yet again.]
I don’t know what issue you are talking about. If you explain the issue as I requested in post #1186 then I will know what you are trying to get at.
Shows,
I refuse to engage with you detritus.
[Shows,
I refuse to engage with you detritus.]
This is not an explanation as requested in post #1186.
What exactly do you have to hide?
And if you aren’t ‘engaging’, why do you keep replying to my posts?
From memory with Gusface was that he would have an argument with William…that would suddenly escalate out of control….if I am thinking of the right person.
I, at least, have a good deal of contact with the world of contractors and subbies, in South Australia.
The outrage is palpable. Not for a moment do those I have spoken to hold the Government responsible for what is seen as the illegal and fly by night behaviour of profiteers, at the expense of human life.
In SA, the ‘red tape’ thank goodness, as far as OHS goes is certainly time consuming and a little onerous. What that means is that people are required to train, understand risks, supply certification and so on, sometimes on an annual basis. Provide appropriate equipment, and so on.
But SA suffered not a single death or injury.
Nor would the contractors have it any other way.
Neither as parents nor employees. Those I have spoken to are forthright that the Government is not at fault.
A number asked where were the parents, in these deaths.
And feel outraged that they may be in some way denigrated as a result of the politicisation by the LNP.
[But SA suffered not a single death or injury.]
S.A. was the only state that regulated the insulation installation industry before the fed government program started.
What is Gusface’s handle, I can’t find him.
Looks like sportsbet has pulled betting on the election date again. Last week Aug 24 was 1.25 and this week it went out to 1.60. The shortest late options were Oct 19 and 26 which were about the $7-8 range.
Thomas Paine.
You know nothing about Gus, so stf(ork)u.
[Looks like sportsbet has pulled betting on the election date again. Last week Aug 24 was 1.25 and this week it went out to 1.60. The shortest late options were Oct 19 and 26 which were about the $7-8 range.]
I still think October would be better than August for the government.
[What is Gusface’s handle, I can’t find him.]
I think it is this:
https://twitter.com/Gusface_Redux