BludgerTrack 2.0: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

Wherein Labor under Kevin Rudd bounces all the way back to hung parliamentary territory, at least for now.

I have joined Mark the Ballot, Pottinger and Kevin Bonham in “implementing a discontinuity”, which in BludgerTrack’s case means re-comencing the model from scratch. Previously the BludgerTrack 2013 series was a single model utilising the full gamut of polling information since the 2010 election to plot out the parties’ fortunes over time. However, to continue would have meant imputing utility to late Gillard polling in determining the present situation, where plainly there is none. The charts on the sidebar represent a continuation of the old model, but it’s only there for show – the results in the tables above them are derived entirely from the polls conducted since last Wednesday (ReachTEL, Galaxy, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan). The sidebar charts will start representing the new regime when there is sufficient data to get a new model rolling which uses the return of Kevin Rudd as its year zero.

I have also started again with my relative state result calculations, as the return of Rudd has changed the game here just as much as with respect to the national result. Here things are particularly dicey at present, as I have only the Morgan SMS poll and ReachTEL breakdowns to go on. This is particularly a problem for Tasmania, so I am continuing to use Gillard era data there to determine the state’s deviation from the national result. This means the calculation continues to be dominated by the 2000+ sample ReachTEL poll of a few weeks ago (remembering that this is used to determine deviation from the national result, so Labor’s two-party result in Tasmania is still improved on last week’s, although the situation on the seat projection hasn’t changed).

Another development is that the announcements by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott that they will not contest the election has caused me to junk the allocation of five seats as “not projected”. New England and Lyne will henceforth be treated as Nationals seats, while Melbourne, Denison and Kennedy will be credited to the incumbents unless and until published polling emerges which says differently. On a not entirely related note, it’s also interesting to observe that BludgerTrack finds the air going out of the “others” balloon which had been inflating since the start of the year, with disaffected Labor supporters who had been parking their votes somewhere (anywhere) else evidently having returned to the fold.

It’s a shame I can’t be more confident about the state breakdowns, because the results are many different varieties of interesting. Firstly, the dramatic difference between Victoria on the one hand and New South Wales and Queensland on the other has vanished, with Labor recording near double-digit gains in the NRL states but up barely more than a point in Victoria. Secondly, I’ve got four different states where the two-party result is pretty much bang on 50-50. Finally, the projected final seat outcome, which would put Labor in a position to continue governing with the support of Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt from a minority of the two-party preferred vote, further demonstrates the point made by Possum that a substantial advantage accrues to the party which seizes the middle ground in Queensland. So long as Julia Gillard was prime minister, that clearly wasn’t going to be Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,347 comments on “BludgerTrack 2.0: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition”

Comments Page 65 of 67
1 64 65 66 67
  1. Great line from Yenny Wahid, daughter of the former blind president, speaking about the way that it is more expensive to raise beef cattle in Indonesia, given the cost of feed.

    “In Australia, you just let them roam free across the plains,” she said.

    Then she added: “Just like we let Australians roam free in Bali.”

  2. [after taking into account Abbott’s promise to abolish the carbon price but keep the compensation, as well as his pledge to abolish Labor’s schoolkids bonus, 87% of households would be better off under the Coalition.]

    So long as you conveniently ignore the massive smoking crater where the budget used to be and pretend that no increases in taxes or reductions in services and other payments will follow then sure, maybe in the short term.

  3. Fran Barlow@3197

    ‘fess quoted DisplayName:

    One day I’m going to find the person who designed the English language and have a quiet talk with them.

    then said

    I’m predicting Fran will expect to be included.

    I’d camp out overnight to be in the first 100.

    Hey, you would deliver a lecture when a conversation was sought. 👿

  4. Whenever the Fed gives money to the states to undertake some building program there is inevitably and increase in industrial accidents and deaths, for whatever reason. The States are responsible for managing and implementing their own rules and regulation in the industry.

    Abbott’s charge against the govt was in the industrial manslaughter, in fact basically charging the govt with murder almost. It was a most foul use of the death of people, and their families.

    This highlights the filth that Tony Abbott truly is and why he should never have both houses and if possible be kept from Govt altogether.

    If the public could ever get a look at a Abbott’s grossly indecent behavior on this issue, get to see it from the true perspective his support rating would be never cross 5%

    There must be a way to twist or change the approach on this issue to let the public get a glimpse of what Abbott was doing, and his lowness.

  5. Thomas Paine, are you aware of the famous quote from your namesake: “Lead, follow, or get out of the way.”?

    Kinda sums up the last couple of weeks in the Govt.

    Rudd was not a keen follower, Gillard wasn’t really leading and eventually got out of the way, and now Rudd leads. 😀

  6. One of the most interesting aspects of the Labor leadership change on PB, before and after, is the insight into the visceral, instinct level feelings for many that approaches that of the loss of a family member. Such extreme tribal attachment to individual leaders or groups –strangers – who won’t even be remembered in a few months or years is remarkable.

    Must be something some people who are drawn to sites like this need to feel, with the fortunes of the party and its factions being adopted to the extent they become integral to life and happiness. Weird.

  7. after taking into account Abbott’s promise to abolish the carbon price but keep the compensation, as well as his pledge to abolish Labor’s schoolkids bonus, 87% of households would be better off under the Coalition.

    Of course, as soon as Tony abolishes Carbon Pricing the power companies will immediately cut their prices by the required amount, say 10% but probably a lot less, even if they passed on the cut in full. And all the downstream processors from your local bakery to refrigerant manufacturers will cut the price immediately – no one will pocket the benefit. In particular, if the bleating of those involved in the production of refrigerant gas are to be believed, they will slash their prices by 80%.

    And the air will be full of flying pigs. It’s an omlette that can’t be unscrambled, even if anyone involved wanted to.

    Meanwhile, Abbotts PPL scheme and ‘Direct Inaction’ – great big new taxes on everything that will be a wrecking ball through the economy, wipe medium-sized towns off the map and bring about the end of the world as we know it (well it’s as believable as all the crap we got from the Opposition and their cheers squad about carbon pricing).

  8. I agree with those who say that R**d ought to adopt the ‘attack is the best defence’ on HIP. Really, today’s court ruling exposes the LNP as utterly disingenuous trolls, using human misery to score a bogus political point.

    R**d blundered first time around, but with Bishop making claims as implausible as a wicketkeeper claiming a legside catch to discourage an umpire from calling a wide, R**d could really hit this one out of the park.

    Far from being an embarrassment to the ALP, this ought to be another scandal, underlining the unscrupulous campaign of lies waged by a reckless troll wanting Australia’s top political job.

    FTR, were I R**d, I’d be choosing a late October election date, while hinting at early August, just to disorient Abbott.

  9. [Such extreme tribal attachment to individual leaders or groups –strangers – who won’t even be remembered in a few months or years is remarkable.]

    Indeed. Except we were making these observations about the delusional attachments by some to the Member for Griffith years ago.

    One day someone will write a book about the cult-like attachment people feel towards him.

  10. Rudd smart to apologise unreservedly. Turns the issue into a 2 or 3 day wonder, instead of dragging on endlessly if he refused to apologise.

  11. jaundiced view

    dont you dare talk about papa like that. someone might pay a visit

    truly, you miscontrue – the debate you mention has been deeply serious, about the future of the party and nation

  12. IMO Rudd should announce the election date tomorrow and then say ok Tony, you have the date, let’s have our first debate next tuesday. Are you man enough?

  13. I find it very hard to believe that ending the school kids bonus for families who receive it will leave those families better off!

  14. In defending the pink batts issue rightly or wrongly it will be seen as heartless. Better to apolgise and move on. The report can only come out once. Other issues will arise to take its place.

  15. No Henry.

    We were talking about the defence of the scheme not Rudd doing a Beattie by apologising for deaths.

    Don’t be norty!

  16. [3190

    One day I’m going to find the person who designed the English language and have a quiet talk with them.

    One of the glories of English that it’s a mongrel language designed by no-one. It’s a dialect of Low German, with layers of Norse, Celtic, Norman French, Latin, Greek and various other things added into it. That’s why its vocabulary is so much richer than those of historically “pure” languages. But the downside of that is that much of English usage and spelling is illogical.]

    English is like a Imperial renaissance city: impeccably conceived in ecclesiastical, judicial, municipal and royal quarters; and these declarations not a stone’s throw from the nefarious alleys of a dark and crooked past, still wet a-foot where the old creek once ran; yonder decorated with every ludicrous fashion old and new; and, never at rest, has an impertinent life of its own.

  17. [Rudd smart to apologise unreservedly.]

    Seeing as he apologised once I don’t see why he needs to again.

    Next week: Rudd apologises for the BER.

    Following week: Rudd apologises for set top boxes.

    And the week after that: Rudd apologises for the asbestos in Telstra pits

    And on it goes…

    You give the media vultures one apologie and they will demand 10 more for whatever ‘disaster’ they can dream up next.

    Rudd has learned nothing it seems.

  18. The stupidest thing in English is all those superfluous “u”s—valor, harbor etc not changed by shoving a needless “u” after the “o.”

  19. Appearing aggressive or defensive is no good, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t point out that problems can’t be solved properly unless all contributing factors are accurately identified.

    It’s one thing to accept responsibility for the government’s role, it’s another to accept the opposition’s or media’s (they just steal the opposition’s) framing.

  20. I didn’t see Rudd’s presser, Henry.

    Did Rudd apologise for the HIP or for the deaths it caused, they’re 2 different things?

  21. I watched Professor Brian Cox’s outing on Wonders of Life tonight.

    If this episode was a good guide, it’s a fabulously composed and photographed series. It seems to me that just about anyone, but especially someone keen to foster in their children a passion for scientific inquiry would want to sit down with them and watch this show.

    I had no idea that Professor Cox had also played in a band that had received some acclaim. What a renaissance man!

  22. [He apologised for the deaths caused in the running of a Government Programme.]

    Well so he should.

    Don’t corporations apologise for deaths that may have occurred in their work place?

    That’s it, I’m not listening to any of the anti Rudd forces here anymore, you’re all sacked 😛

  23. JV makes a typically stupid, pointless post.

    I still remember Whitlam and the Dismissal.

    Besides which, I have not been calling for JGPM to be reinstated or that she was dudded etc, I have talked exclusively about the danger the party placed itself in by firstly rewarding a long period of treachery, and secondly the damage that will be done when the micromanaging ditherer has to be booted out the PM position again.

    Of course, there has been a whole conga line of Rudd suckholes pretending we have psychological problems and that is why we are unhappy with the change. Any way of warding off thinking about the issues we raise, I suppose.

  24. [3231
    political animal

    The stupidest thing in English is all those superfluous “u”s—valor, harbor etc not changed by shoving a needless “u” after the “o.”]

    But the magical thing is you can indenture the “u” ,never to leave your person, or liberate them at no personal cost, as you choose. English could not care less what you do to it.

  25. Yup, Rudd stuffed up again, really truly. hasn’t learned much, never takes the time to think—it was Keating pointed that out.

  26. abbott invited on lateline but did not appear infact has not appeared since 2011. wont appear on 730 report, Q&A. this guy wants to be PM and thinks he can just go with the shock jocks and mouth three word slogans.

  27. Fran @3211 – Really, today’s court ruling exposes the LNP as utterly disingenuous trolls, using human misery to score a bogus political point.

    That’s how the LNP operates – cultivate fear, uncertainty and doubt. Exploit anyone and anything if it helps their case. Asylum Seekers being the prime example, but also ‘Debt and Deficit’, ‘Government in Chaos’ and Carbon Pricing. Four years of unrelenting negativity under Abbott.

    By the way, I think it’s OK to mention his name now.

  28. Guytaur

    I loved the punch of the shrimp, and the scorpion that could detect vibrations in a single grain of sand.

    Some of what he said was like a walk down memory lane from 40 years ago, but this time with passion and hi-res motion images and exposition.

    I do like his connectedness with physics and the human connection to life a billion years in the past. Brilliant — (pun intended).

  29. Henry@3213

    Rudd going down the Beattie road of apologizing for the pink batts deaths. Hmmm.

    Bad mistake IMHO.
    Should have been sincere condolences to families followed by defence of program and calling out the crooks.

  30. Briefly—I am valorous enough not to need a safe harbor in a linguistic storm and so omit superfluous ‘u’s for which I get cane by pedants, as if I care,

Comments Page 65 of 67
1 64 65 66 67

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *