BludgerTrack 2.0: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

Wherein Labor under Kevin Rudd bounces all the way back to hung parliamentary territory, at least for now.

I have joined Mark the Ballot, Pottinger and Kevin Bonham in “implementing a discontinuity”, which in BludgerTrack’s case means re-comencing the model from scratch. Previously the BludgerTrack 2013 series was a single model utilising the full gamut of polling information since the 2010 election to plot out the parties’ fortunes over time. However, to continue would have meant imputing utility to late Gillard polling in determining the present situation, where plainly there is none. The charts on the sidebar represent a continuation of the old model, but it’s only there for show – the results in the tables above them are derived entirely from the polls conducted since last Wednesday (ReachTEL, Galaxy, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan). The sidebar charts will start representing the new regime when there is sufficient data to get a new model rolling which uses the return of Kevin Rudd as its year zero.

I have also started again with my relative state result calculations, as the return of Rudd has changed the game here just as much as with respect to the national result. Here things are particularly dicey at present, as I have only the Morgan SMS poll and ReachTEL breakdowns to go on. This is particularly a problem for Tasmania, so I am continuing to use Gillard era data there to determine the state’s deviation from the national result. This means the calculation continues to be dominated by the 2000+ sample ReachTEL poll of a few weeks ago (remembering that this is used to determine deviation from the national result, so Labor’s two-party result in Tasmania is still improved on last week’s, although the situation on the seat projection hasn’t changed).

Another development is that the announcements by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott that they will not contest the election has caused me to junk the allocation of five seats as “not projected”. New England and Lyne will henceforth be treated as Nationals seats, while Melbourne, Denison and Kennedy will be credited to the incumbents unless and until published polling emerges which says differently. On a not entirely related note, it’s also interesting to observe that BludgerTrack finds the air going out of the “others” balloon which had been inflating since the start of the year, with disaffected Labor supporters who had been parking their votes somewhere (anywhere) else evidently having returned to the fold.

It’s a shame I can’t be more confident about the state breakdowns, because the results are many different varieties of interesting. Firstly, the dramatic difference between Victoria on the one hand and New South Wales and Queensland on the other has vanished, with Labor recording near double-digit gains in the NRL states but up barely more than a point in Victoria. Secondly, I’ve got four different states where the two-party result is pretty much bang on 50-50. Finally, the projected final seat outcome, which would put Labor in a position to continue governing with the support of Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt from a minority of the two-party preferred vote, further demonstrates the point made by Possum that a substantial advantage accrues to the party which seizes the middle ground in Queensland. So long as Julia Gillard was prime minister, that clearly wasn’t going to be Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,347 comments on “BludgerTrack 2.0: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition”

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  1. Fran, I agree. I watched the Professor on i-view recently. He is so lucid and so pertinent – such an advertisement for learning.

  2. Centre@3233

    I didn’t see Rudd’s presser, Henry.

    Did Rudd apologise for the HIP or for the deaths it caused, they’re 2 different things?

    On behalf of the govt he apologised to the families involved who lost loved ones.
    So no, he didn’t apologise for the HIP.

  3. Fran Barlow@3236

    I watched Professor Brian Cox’s outing on Wonders of Life tonight.

    If this episode was a good guide, it’s a fabulously composed and photographed series. It seems to me that just about anyone, but especially someone keen to foster in their children a passion for scientific inquiry would want to sit down with them and watch this show.

    I had no idea that Professor Cox had also played in a band that had received some acclaim. What a renaissance man!

    Thiiiiings Can Only Get Better!! D-Ream.
    Had that CD.

  4. [3250
    political animal

    Briefly—I am valorous enough not to need a safe harbor in a linguistic storm and so omit superfluous ‘u’s for which I get cane by pedants, as if I care]

    Save them up for special occasions, p-a

  5. Fran

    Professor Cox has also done a series on physics. His discipline of course. Just fantastic. Best science programme I have seen since Carl Sagan.

  6. R**d might have said something like …

    Any person hearing of these deaths would feel for the family. The lose of any life is tragic. What is more tragic still is that these losses of life were, according to the court, the result of misconduct by people seeking a fast buck. These folk cared not a damn for the relevant state workplace safety laws and it is a very good thing that the law is holding them to account.

    I do wonder though, why the Opposition seems so keen to hand them an alibi. What is it about the LNP and their shonky mates in business?

  7. With my 3G I have only got 8G data cap—iView and its equivalents are closed to me, pretty much. Come ON NBN!

  8. Oh good Henry.

    It would have been a mistake to apologise (doing a Beattie) for the HIP.

    I’m sure that Rudd will more vigorously defend the stimulus (including the benefits of the HIP for the economy) this time round 😎

    LOL I’m betting that one of the anti Rudd forces here will end up in the loony farm before Rudd makes a mistake 😆

  9. Fran Barlow@3257

    Rudd might have said something like …

    Any person hearing of these deaths would feel for the family. The lose of any life is tragic. What is more tragic still is that these losses of life were, according to the court, the result of misconduct by people seeking a fast buck. These folk cared not a damn for the relevant state workplace safety laws and it is a very good thing that the law is holding them to account.

    I do wonder though, why the Opposition seems so keen to hand them an alibi. What is it about the LNP and their shonky mates in business?

    There, fixed it for you and I agree.

  10. [3265
    Thomas. Paine.

    T** **lli**** o* u**ng a* * b**a**e *uo **e s* b**t ***t ov** **l*la**s f**l*** is t*t*ll* st***d.]

    This is the most sensible thing you’ve said for more than 3 years, TP

  11. On the apology, I think Rudd understands the absolutely urgency is sucking the oxygen out of issues like this immediately. If he quite reasonably pointed the finger at dodgy employers, the Murdoch press would just prattle on and on about it.

    An apology is a journalistic wet blanket. It counts for one headline then it’s over.

  12. Never saw The Models guytaur, still sad about that that.
    Dire Straits I saw and was underwhelmed. Loved Kylie.
    INXS peaked in 1982 have always thought (saw them in 89).

  13. alias

    An apology is a journalistic wet blanket. It counts for one headline then it’s over.

    They’re more than capable of hanging onto things when they want to.

  14. It could be the case (as some have said) that the public won’t be interested in it, no matter how much it’s beaten up.

  15. The real danger, for Rudd, is that this apologising thing creates some kind of narrative for Abbott, as he flounders for a way to avoid a debate he knows he will lose.

    First, admitting immigration policy wasn’t tweaked quickly enough to reflect changing global circumstances, then this apology in response to the Coroner’s finding.

    Rudd has to be careful he doesn’t appear to be applying bandaids to much of his earlier period in office.

    He has much to boast about – getting Australia through the GFC, most notably, but many other achievements too, and in this regard, he has to continue to embrace all the impressive legislative achievements of Julia Gillard magnamimously, as he has done thus far.

    On that point, I would like to propose that Rudd should plan to have Julia Gillard on stage with him when he makes his victory speech after the forthcoming election.

    It would be a proper acknowledgement of Gillard’s impressive role in negotiating her way through minority government and it would also be smart politics.

  16. DN

    With PMKR showing regret the public will focus on who is really responsible. That being the employers not training properly.

    The Coalition have lost a line of attack. They will probably drop it if they are halfway smart.

  17. The termite, after the caucus meeting that elected him Leader praised JGPM—for what she did for him as his Deputy! Alias is off with the fairies or sniffing laughing gas or something!

  18. I think it pretty safe bet that Abbott wont get the Senate now. The worst that can happen now is Abbott spending three years err, ummm and aaaing and doing not being able to do too much as PM.

    The hope is that **** can sneak over the line.

    I am now as much interested in any reform that can take place in Labor….though…..

  19. Apparently new story on Essondon tomorrow. Second Casino in Sydney.
    Indonesia Visit. The apology may not get much press at all

  20. PA

    Rudd has been far more generous in his approach to his predecessor than was Julia Gillard to hers (ie him).

    And I think he has the political intelligence to do something like that. It would be a way of uniting the party even further after what would be a most unexpected election victory. Rudd has already vanquished Julia Gillard. It’s a tough word, vanquished, but it’s fact. So embracing a former adversary quickly and sincerely is a profound way to cement Rudd’s place as a Labor hero.

  21. Bemused 3249

    Didnt take long, did it. The old quick step Kev. Obsessed with tomorrows headline. No depth, no guts, no point

  22. Essendon are cactus and will soon be stripped of all points this year. Plus Jobe will lose his Brownlow.
    Good, they are cheats.
    Sammy Mitchell 2012 Brownlow come on down!

  23. Rossmore@3284

    Bemused 3249

    Didnt take long, did it. The old quick step Kev. Obsessed with tomorrows headline. No depth, no guts, no point

    What on earth are you on about?

    What do you want? Inaction?

  24. [With PMKR showing regret the public will focus on who is really responsible. That being the employers not training properly]

    Well I guess the public will see it as a far stretch to put the deaths at the door of the Fed govt. **** trusting the public are not entirely stupid except for the Abbott supporters and Rudd haters who will of course blame him.

    Haven’t see that presser clip as yet.

  25. Alias you are taking the piss?
    So Rudd has spent the last 3 whiteanting JG and you expect her to thank him for that?
    Seriously?

  26. Who said anything about JG thanking Rudd for anything Henry?

    I suggested that Rudd would have the good grace to invite JG on stage at the election victory.

  27. Fair enough Thomas.Paine. You’ve been a stalwart in the commonsense solution for Labor we now behold. So you’re entitled to these small expressions of victory.

  28. [I suggested that Rudd would have the good grace to invite JG on stage at the election victory.]

    Not sure she would like that. The person who was about to take Labor to a massive thrashing standing next to the guy they had to call on to fix it up.

    Maybe not a good look. Though he could in his speech give praise to her part.

  29. Rossmore@3295

    damned by your own words Bemused at 3249. Your man goofed. Not terminal for him, but he has form here.

    I disagree with his tactics there, others agree with him. So what? I could be wrong.

    I never said he was perfect and I expect an occasional slip.

  30. Centre@3291

    Henry read 3264!

    Could you kindly stop being an arse hole with your 3270!

    Centre, your boy screwed up by admitting federal govt responsibility for the pink batts fiasco. Bang goes your narrative.

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