I have joined Mark the Ballot, Pottinger and Kevin Bonham in “implementing a discontinuity”, which in BludgerTrack’s case means re-comencing the model from scratch. Previously the BludgerTrack 2013 series was a single model utilising the full gamut of polling information since the 2010 election to plot out the parties’ fortunes over time. However, to continue would have meant imputing utility to late Gillard polling in determining the present situation, where plainly there is none. The charts on the sidebar represent a continuation of the old model, but it’s only there for show – the results in the tables above them are derived entirely from the polls conducted since last Wednesday (ReachTEL, Galaxy, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan). The sidebar charts will start representing the new regime when there is sufficient data to get a new model rolling which uses the return of Kevin Rudd as its year zero.
I have also started again with my relative state result calculations, as the return of Rudd has changed the game here just as much as with respect to the national result. Here things are particularly dicey at present, as I have only the Morgan SMS poll and ReachTEL breakdowns to go on. This is particularly a problem for Tasmania, so I am continuing to use Gillard era data there to determine the state’s deviation from the national result. This means the calculation continues to be dominated by the 2000+ sample ReachTEL poll of a few weeks ago (remembering that this is used to determine deviation from the national result, so Labor’s two-party result in Tasmania is still improved on last week’s, although the situation on the seat projection hasn’t changed).
Another development is that the announcements by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott that they will not contest the election has caused me to junk the allocation of five seats as “not projected”. New England and Lyne will henceforth be treated as Nationals seats, while Melbourne, Denison and Kennedy will be credited to the incumbents unless and until published polling emerges which says differently. On a not entirely related note, it’s also interesting to observe that BludgerTrack finds the air going out of the “others” balloon which had been inflating since the start of the year, with disaffected Labor supporters who had been parking their votes somewhere (anywhere) else evidently having returned to the fold.
It’s a shame I can’t be more confident about the state breakdowns, because the results are many different varieties of interesting. Firstly, the dramatic difference between Victoria on the one hand and New South Wales and Queensland on the other has vanished, with Labor recording near double-digit gains in the NRL states but up barely more than a point in Victoria. Secondly, I’ve got four different states where the two-party result is pretty much bang on 50-50. Finally, the projected final seat outcome, which would put Labor in a position to continue governing with the support of Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt from a minority of the two-party preferred vote, further demonstrates the point made by Possum that a substantial advantage accrues to the party which seizes the middle ground in Queensland. So long as Julia Gillard was prime minister, that clearly wasn’t going to be Labor.
Did someone mention the Angelina Lauro earlier?
My family came out on that boat when we migrated from Ireland. Small world.
Leigh was essentially begging the poor parents of one poor lad to blame the govt in general and Rudd in particular.
Very crass, today tonight stuff.
Centaur
I don’t believe it’s a Rudd thing with Leigh. It’s a Labor thing with the media.
[Can’t you remember those horrendous Question Times where the Opposition held Peter Garrett personally responsible and essentially accused him of manslaughter?
Yeah, a pity the scum didn’t repeat it outside the house and get their sorry arses sued.]
A pity also that Rudd made no effort to defend Garrett.
No Dee I reckon it’s personal there…pushing all the gotchas that she could
centaur009@3150
Thank you for expanding my Pommy slang vocabulary. 😀
Wow
Henry, you’re right that is a shocker.
You all know that that was really the end of Rudd in 2010.
The commercial networks kept running segments of people whose homes had caught on fire through the pink batts scheme.
I wish I’d never heard of pink batts, I blame the Greens 😯
Henry@3151
STOP THE BOATS! 😀
Pink bats is news tonight, and will be tomorrow morning, because of the report. It has no oxygen beyond that. The Government would be silly to give it any. I thought Albanese handled the matter reasonably well today. Will quickly be overshadowed by Rudd’s Indonesia trip.
What a strange coincidence that pink batts report comes out just after Rudd takes over. These things happen I suppose.
But why are Old Media attacking Rudd again NOW over the pink batts scheme?
Maybe the worm is really starting to turn in voter land?
I hope so 😯
Henry@3152
They were only too happy to do so and lost any sympathy I had by politicising their sons death.
In my experience, interviewers will usually discuss questions and answers with the interviewee before the interview so the parents were probably just being given a chance to say what they wanted to say.
if only they used insulfluff- traeted with fire retardant, basically inflammable
It must be remembered Rudd has remained popular even with the pink batts stuff.
[The failure of leadership to properly defend carbon pricing is well documented.]
The govt has shed blood over its carbon pricing. It’s changed leaders over the issue!
Not so with HIP. The then leader simply apologised for the scheme and hoped that that would move on from the matter.
Very different indeed.
Psephos@3154
I am in furious agreement.
Just dawned on me that Q&A is doing its Jakarta special right now
centaur009@3163
Fibreglass batts are not inflammable.
But they cause a heat build up in downlights which can cause other materials such as timber beams to catch alight.
They need to be installed properly with prescribed clearances.
So any more info on the Rumored Aug 24th election ?
[Very different indeed.]
Yes I agree it was different.
Rudd should have done a Howard and not a Peter Beattie by defending the HIP instead of gambling with the easy alternative and saying sorry.
It was different because Gillard’s was worse!
Why?
She failed miserably to explain the reason she said one thing before an election and then did the other straight after.
She was deemed to have broken a blatant promise and was termed JuLIAR.
Hence, her polling was worse as a result.
3168
It seems you have the opposite meaning of “inflammable” to the incorrect meaning in 3163. This sort of confusion, and the incendiary consequences thereof, is why the correct terminology in English is now flammable and non-flammable.
That same change has not happened in French.
bemused
[Fibreglass batts are not inflammable.]
I think you meant fibreglass batts are not flammable
I thought Rudd said on a number of occasions that he stood by minister Garrett?
The problem was that the stimulus had to be delivered as instantly as possible to take proper effect.
What they should have done was, instead of the HIP, with hindsight admittedly, was to put a freeze on the GST.
With the cash handouts, that would have worked like a beauty 😎
Tom the first and best@3171
Quite correct.
I used the old terminology. Thanks for pointing it out in case I confused anyone.
Dysflammable? 🙂
[Fibreglass batts are not inflammable.
I think you meant fibreglass batts are not flammable.]
Curiously, flammable and inflammable mean the same thing. The opposite would have to be non-flammable, or (better) fireproof.
Regarding the constant blaming of Rudd and Gillard for the dismantling of the “Pacific Solution”:
“1 December 2008
Government welcomes a bipartisan report on immigration detention The Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Senator Chris Evans, today welcomed the first report of the inquiry into immigration detention by the Joint Standing Committee on Migration.
Senator Evans said he was pleased that the Committee, which includes senior Liberal MPs and the Shadow Immigration Minister Sharman Stone, has endorsed the Rudd Government’s abolition of John Howard’s inhumane approach to immigration detention.”
Note: the changes implemented by Labor had bi-partisan support
Sharman Stone on the ABC:
LEIGH SALES: Does that mean – sorry to interrupt, but I just want to pick up on that point. Does that mean then that we need to see the reinstatement of the TPVs, and the Pacific Solution?
SHARMAN STONE: We don’t need the Pacific Solution now, that’s Nauru Island and Manus Island, because we have the Christmas Island centre completed. A very well structured and appropriate facility for people who need to be, of course, detained very, very, so I say humanely, so they very quickly can have their identities, their security, their character and health status checked. So we don’t need alternatives to Nauru and Manus island, we have Christmas Island.
“So back in 2008 the Coalition fully supported Labor’s move to dismantle the Pacific Solution, Why ? Because PM John Howard had decided to spend $400 million upgrading the Christmas Island detention centre to a facility that would accommodate 800 asylum seekers. Why would he do that if the boats had stopped coming?
One day I’m going to find the person who designed the English language and have a quiet talk with them.
Can you imagine how crazy the braniacs on Jo Nova’s blog would become if Labor is re-elected?
If Labor can win this election no future government or opposition will ever propose getting rid of carbon pricing.
I installed fibreglass bats 20 years ago and pretty crappily too if I may so myself.
A great way to get itchy.
Centre:
More voters prefer carbon pricing to direct (in)action according to recent polling.
Labor did the right thing standing by its policies, even if it meant the then leader was attacked so mercilessly.
If the new leader wants to unravel carbon pricing and walk back on the legislation in the name of popular opinion then bring on the Sussex St overlords, who have already been pandered to in the name of ‘party reform’.
shellbell, “I may so myself”. You mayn’t.
Well it’s wrong!
flammable – should mean it can catch on fire;
inflammable – should be it can’t catch on fire.
They should change it 😆
3176
As I alluded to above, a decision was made to stop using inflammable and replace it with flammable because of people who thought that flammable was a word and inflammable its opposite and thus cause fires.
[One day I’m going to find the person who designed the English language and have a quiet talk with them.]
I’m predicting Fran will expect to be included. 😀
3183
Inflammable is the now replaced adjective form of the verb to inflame (inflame+able). Too many people with bad English thought the way you think it should be was and there were fires.
3178
The reason that English is so messy is because it is not designed and in fact is a hybrid language with many sources providing their words so that English has many words with distinctions that do not occur in many other languages.
DisplayName@3178
What language will you use? 😛
My understanding is that an August 24 election would have to have the writs issued no later than Tuesday July 22. I can’t see any earlier dates in play and I see no reason why Kevin Rudd would want to let the Opposition know the election date any earlier than he had to.
[One day I’m going to find the person who designed the English language and have a quiet talk with them.]
One of the glories of English that it’s a mongrel language designed by no-one. It’s a dialect of Low German, with layers of Norse, Celtic, Norman French, Latin, Greek and various other things added into it. That’s why its vocabulary is so much richer than those of historically “pure” languages. But the downside of that is that much of English usage and spelling is illogical.
after taking into account Abbott’s promise to abolish the carbon price but keep the compensation, as well as his pledge to abolish Labor’s schoolkids bonus, 87% of households would be better off under the Coalition.
But the exception was struggling families with kids, the families politicians like to refer to as “forgotten” even though they talk about them all the time.
The research found that families earning less than $100,000 with children would for the most part wind up considerably worse off under the Coalition after the abolition of the schoolkids bonus, which provides $410 a year for each child at primary school and $820 for high schoolers.
[Well it’s wrong!
flammable – should mean it can catch on fire;
inflammable – should be it can’t catch on fire.
They should change it 😆 ]
“Reality is frequently inaccurate”
– Douglas Adams
krONik @krONik 2m
#AUSpol
Tweeps: can you share/RT/like my Tony Abbott #ShitHappens video pls?
http://youtu.be/7qfkuNlU4l4
Thx!
#QandA #Lateline
Tom the first and best@3187
The ‘Television History of English’ was very informative.
The line that sticks in my mind was a Cockney saying wtte “The English are the greatest linguistic pick-pockets the world has ever seen, having pinched words from everyone else.”
This QandA from Indonesia is superb.
So refreshing to hear sensible people calmly and intelligently discussing important issues without ranting, shouting or resorting to spin.
They really should have imported Sophie into this one just for the lulz.
bemused, somatic, :angel:.
‘fess quoted DisplayName:
I’d camp out overnight to be in the first 100. 😉
I think it’s something of a reflection of Australia’s insularity that noone here has posted a comment on the excellent forum on air right now on Q&A about the Indonesia-Australia relationship.
I suspect many eyes glaze over at the topic, but right now it is central to red hot issues on the Australian political agenda .. so how?
Henry.. Your comment landed as I was writing.
Tom f&b
OK, fair enough 😛
It might be worthwhile for educational purposes if they actually fixed or redesigned the English language for simpler understanding and more consistency.