I have joined Mark the Ballot, Pottinger and Kevin Bonham in “implementing a discontinuity”, which in BludgerTrack’s case means re-comencing the model from scratch. Previously the BludgerTrack 2013 series was a single model utilising the full gamut of polling information since the 2010 election to plot out the parties’ fortunes over time. However, to continue would have meant imputing utility to late Gillard polling in determining the present situation, where plainly there is none. The charts on the sidebar represent a continuation of the old model, but it’s only there for show – the results in the tables above them are derived entirely from the polls conducted since last Wednesday (ReachTEL, Galaxy, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan). The sidebar charts will start representing the new regime when there is sufficient data to get a new model rolling which uses the return of Kevin Rudd as its year zero.
I have also started again with my relative state result calculations, as the return of Rudd has changed the game here just as much as with respect to the national result. Here things are particularly dicey at present, as I have only the Morgan SMS poll and ReachTEL breakdowns to go on. This is particularly a problem for Tasmania, so I am continuing to use Gillard era data there to determine the state’s deviation from the national result. This means the calculation continues to be dominated by the 2000+ sample ReachTEL poll of a few weeks ago (remembering that this is used to determine deviation from the national result, so Labor’s two-party result in Tasmania is still improved on last week’s, although the situation on the seat projection hasn’t changed).
Another development is that the announcements by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott that they will not contest the election has caused me to junk the allocation of five seats as “not projected”. New England and Lyne will henceforth be treated as Nationals seats, while Melbourne, Denison and Kennedy will be credited to the incumbents unless and until published polling emerges which says differently. On a not entirely related note, it’s also interesting to observe that BludgerTrack finds the air going out of the “others” balloon which had been inflating since the start of the year, with disaffected Labor supporters who had been parking their votes somewhere (anywhere) else evidently having returned to the fold.
It’s a shame I can’t be more confident about the state breakdowns, because the results are many different varieties of interesting. Firstly, the dramatic difference between Victoria on the one hand and New South Wales and Queensland on the other has vanished, with Labor recording near double-digit gains in the NRL states but up barely more than a point in Victoria. Secondly, I’ve got four different states where the two-party result is pretty much bang on 50-50. Finally, the projected final seat outcome, which would put Labor in a position to continue governing with the support of Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt from a minority of the two-party preferred vote, further demonstrates the point made by Possum that a substantial advantage accrues to the party which seizes the middle ground in Queensland. So long as Julia Gillard was prime minister, that clearly wasn’t going to be Labor.
Well confessions, “beyond the pale” is far more apt for the countless comments that you, by default defend. I’m sorry I can’t go back in time for you and criticise TP as you would like. The fact is we’re here trying to stop Abbott not TP not myself. Why not get back over the “pale” and fight for what’s right? Remember, I’m not helping Abbott by default.
BK@3092
Indeed.
The connection between the Fed Govt and any accidents is tenuous in the extreme.
[I want a clear and strong refutation of all the BS.]
Don’t hold your breath!
[“beyond the pale” is far more apt for the countless comments that you, by default defend. ]
What?
This makes no sense.
Bemused
“Black and white” is so easy.
Psephos
How reliable is that information?
I would assume that the Rudd camp is trying to send out all sorts of confusing signals to keep the LNP machine off balance and confused.
Jeez and I thought Turnbull invented all this?
http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/computer-mouse-inventor-douglas-engelbart-dies-20130704-2pd2j.html
Dee@3103
Hello Dee.
I am just sick of the Govt copping all that crap when the factual reports on the HIP completely refute the nonsense.
The pink batts are indeed really old hat.
The only reason it came up today is that the corner’s report came out in Queensland.
In my view, better out now than at some point closer to the election.
In any event, other than the rusted-ons, who really cares any more?
It is note-worth that Bishop J, and others, do not fight the batts issue on the economic grounds for the project.
The coroner made the point of – too rushed – too little training – thereby increased risk of harm.
The fact that human stupidity such as NOT turning off the electricity before working in a roof area, was a factor, is lost on some.
Bishop J could not resist the “blood on his hands” thing but she does really play the Lady McBeth role well.
Have you ever noticed that Bishop J is incapable of smiling with her eyes? When she smiles it is like a shark opening its mouth while the eyes are as cold as charity.
A correct term to describe the constant regurgitated comments of your friends is in fact “beyond the pale”. I believe other PB’rs have expressed similar statements that “enough is enough” over the last two weeks.
[I make no apologies for being a fan of Gillard, her achievements speak for themselves.
Julia Gillard’s signature reform, DisabilityCare Australia (NDIS) has just started to kick in. It will transform the lives of many Australians. A long overdue reform that was initiated, negotiated, and put in motion by Prime Minister Gillard.
We have had major education reform, with a huge investment in the education of our youth. The National Plan for School Improvement (Gonski) has already been signed and sealed in NSW, the biggest state – a Coalition controlled state I might add – along with SA, and the ACT.
The Murray Darling Basin agreement, an agreement that has been out of reach for around a century has become a reality under Julia Gillard, with a lot of brilliant work also done by Minister Tony Burke.
She has implemented the country’s first ever Paid Parental Leave scheme.
Her government passed the Clean Energy Future package (carbon price) and tied it to Europe’s emissions trading scheme.
In a world first, her Attorney-General, Nicola Roxon introduced plain packaging for tobacco products. Achieved whilst the Coalition took millions in political donations from “Big Tobacco.”
After years of struggle by victims, Julia Gillard was the prime minister to stand up to churches and other institutions. She announced the commencement of the long overdue Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse.
She leaves behind an economy that is the envy of the world and an unemployment figure that most nations can only dream of.
Remember, all of this was achieved through a minority government. It’s a feat that must leave the nations of the world in awe.
Achieving so much in less than one term is remarkable. As Australians we should hold our heads up high. We should be proud of Gillard’s achievements.]
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/rudds-return-ruffles-reckless-abbott/
This is why people like me are grateful for a Gillard government. She achieved stuff unimaginable 3 years ago. Just brilliant.
There’s no good way to jump into an internet squabble. Unless you’re the moderator it’s more likely you’ll add to the noise than not, whatever your actual intention.
Sure, it may be tiring to hear the same thing repeated again and again, but if you respond to it again and again, you’ll end up caught in the repetition (unless you’ve genuinely thought out new points to respond with).
Certainly adding your own personal remarks is unhelpful (such as comments on maturity or otherwise) even if you think they’re truthful and innocuous. Mostly they’re only determined to be such by your own judgement anyway.
After some observation of the current situation, I think it’s better to stick to what several people have done, such as
– point out possible negative effects
– relate personal constructive responses to similar situations
– ask questions that may cause them to rethink their strategy*
– reason logically with them (though this may be ineffective – at least in the short term – it’s certainly better than labels, personal remarks, value judgements, etc)
If they insist despite all that, there’s nothing more you can do (unless you’re the moderator or know them in real life) and it’s best to leave it alone.
Mind you, this is all independent of a discussion of who is right or wrong. You can be stubborn and right just as you can be stubborn and wrong :).
*used loosely
Didn’t have to be removed? Geez, still in denial about that?
But this time, if Rudd is actually catatonic (I think he might well be, by then) what the hell are you going to think?
And yes, a micromanager who can’t make a decision will eventually have to be removed.
Popping out to buy some food from a street vendor – so much choice. Good night everyone. See you tomorrow.
[The pink batts are indeed really old hat.
The only reason it came up today is that the corner’s report came out in Queensland.]
The coroner’s report is precisely why the HIP failures are not “old hat”.
People died. The then Prime Minister apologised for the program, thereby legitimising all the hysteria and beat ups levelled at the scheme. It’s news.
It’s even more newsworthy because a) Labor is still in govt, and b) the then PM is now PM again.
confessions
Yes Rudd did. He was gutless on that issue which started the decline to his demise.
ausdavo@3110
Ausdavo, there has been a constant stream of posts slagging Rudd by such mental midgets as confessions, Bullshit Bill, Borewar and others over the past 3 years.
Others, including me, have defended Rudd and, with the exception of a possible occasional lapse, have not descended into personal denigration of Julia Gillard.
They are still stuck in the same groove and have unfortunately sucked Puffy, previously quite sensible, into it.
They are disturbed people.
hear hear Confessions!
Rudd got a 2% swing in the polls, that is all.
I understand the death rate was much higher before the program was implemented (batts). I believe it was the wrong move to give money to unscrupulous, exploitative bastards in the first place.
The beginning of the poll decline for rudd was the Oceanic viking
Oceanic Viking was another area where weakness was shown, true.
lets face it she was pants bemused in every way
BK, centaur:
The settings for the GFC response were absolutely spot on. I remember seeing a post by Grog which outlined (from memory) that the Treasury had targetted its response at the top employers in the country at that time.
What failed the HIP was a failure of leadership. A failure by the then federal govt to defend the program at the time, and sheet the blame back to where it really lay: lack of government regulation of the owner-operator / small business sector and lack of state govt regulator of same.
Tricot
Posted Thursday, July 4, 2013 at 8:54 pm | Permalink
The pink batts are indeed really old hat.
The only reason it came up today is that the corner’s report came out in Queensland.
In my view, better out now than at some point closer to the election.
In any event, other than the rusted-ons, who really cares any more?
——————————————————
Yep the Liberals and their media masters are who cares….it shows the desperation.
Honest real people know it was the employers not the Govt.
Otherwise every project the Govt fund …
Hi Bemused
[I am just sick of the Govt copping all that crap when the factual reports on the HIP completely refute the nonsense.]
Do you think Rudd is able to refute the bullshit considering his apology was seen as an admission of fault?
I really hope KR doesn’t back down from a rehash of Pink Batts (TM). Or “School Halls” (TM). We all work together to make Australia, the government is only one part of things. The media should be forced to justify their propositions (especially if they’re borrowing them lazily from the opposition).
On a tangent rant, I’ve always hated “the buck stops at the top” (or similar). Let me put it this way, if you were someone trying to fix a problem and that was your heuristic, where would it point to as the problem each time you used it? Always the same bloody place! What kind of useless advice for fixing problems is that? Surely you need to accurately identify where the problem is in order to fix it properly?
Using it to indicate the will to take action may be appropriate.
Bishop J could not resist the “blood on his hands” thing but she does really play the Lady McBeth role well.
Have you ever noticed that Bishop J is incapable of smiling with her eyes? When she smiles it is like a shark opening its mouth while the eyes are as cold as charity.
—————————————————-
this is the person who said that the people dying of asbestos related disease should not be given any preferential treatment by the courts in having their cases heard. she was happy to let he court cases be delayed and the person die before they had their day in court
[Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01 26m
The pink batts deaths are sad, but surely the blame lies with cowboy employers.
PatriciaKarvelas @PatsKarvelas 14m
@MikeCarlton01 read what the coroner said
Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01 7m
@PatsKarvelas I have. Have you ? It is clear the primary fault lies with dodgy employers.
Peter Brent @mumbletwits 4m
@MikeCarlton01 @PatsKarvelas Of course it bloody does. Business owner blaming govt coz business owner didn’t take appropriate precautions.]
Karvelas reaches the same conclusions as Paul Bongionrno having supposedly read the same report.
No prizes for guessing what the OM line will be tomorrow.
[I understand the death rate was much higher before the program was implemented (batts).]
Possum did an analysis of data which proves this to be correct.
centaur009@3121
Huh?
The anti Rudd HYPOCRITES are still strongly out in force I see.
And not one of them has had any association with Rudd of any king whatsoever.
Quite sad really 😆
Meanwhile,the real professional PM, Mr Rudd continues to steer his Party to a contest against Tony Abbott 😎
[Point: Rudd had to be removed once already—had hidden himself in the PMO bunker.]
Actually when Rudd was deposed he was given 45 minutes to get out of the PM’s office.
Rudd gave Gillard 6 days to clear out the PM’s office.
[Bludgers, my mail is that the election will be sooner rather than later.]
Oh crap, I think this is a mistake.
If KR can’t fight back given the reports he should now have on hand, I’m going to make a post every hour about how useless he is for the next 3 years :D.
[Possum did an analysis of data which proves this to be correct.]
Not surprising. Before the federal program S.A. was the only state to regulate the insulation installation industry.
In all other states and territories there were no rules at all on how much training workers needed or rules regarding working conditions.
Champions or top class people in their profession;
do NOT make the same mistakes twice 😉
I will be very surprised if Rudd is not very ready to tackle criticisms of Pink Batts and School Halls this time round.
Confessions
As far as the batts are concerned it is old hat…..
The only thing new is the C’s report.
The only issue which matters now is Rudd defeating Abbott.
The rest can wait for the historians are far as I am concerned.
Rudd’s decline started when he was pole-axed by the back room crew and JG’s subsequent elevation to leadership.
I am not a particular Rudd fan but he was leading 52-48 in the polls at the time, which is more than JG was able to achieve for herself and Labor as PM in nearly three years.
Live by the polls: Die by the polls now.
Dee@3124
My memory is a bit rusty, I would like to see video of exactly what was said at the time.
It would have been appropriate to offer the Govts condolences to the bereaved families, but that is not an apology and certainly not an acceptances of any responsibility.
Perhaps there is scope for some backtracking, perhaps not.
If not, then just point to the conclusions of the various reports, including the coroners, which were not available at the time and make a clear, unequivocal final statement on the matter.
Anyway, that’s what I think.
Hidden himself in the PMO bunker, not talking to colleagues, a the end of his tether.
[It would have been appropriate to offer the Govts condolences to the bereaved families, but that is not an apology and certainly not an acceptances of any responsibility.]
Can’t you remember those horrendous Question Times where the Opposition held Peter Garrett personally responsible and essentially accused him of manslaughter?
From memory I think Possum’s analysis showed the rate of fires per house plummeted after the Pink Batts Program started. As soon as the Fed Govt got involved in doing the States’ OHA&S job for them, the fires slowed and then stopped. There were data available for previous years on roof fires so he could do an analysis of info provided by the CSIRO.
There was no info on previous workplace deaths as the records did not specify insulation separate from other building accidents. I would like to see such info if it is available.
Leigh Sales copping some flack.
Leigh Sales @leighsales 14m
A taste of the nightly political commentary on twitter “@twatthuk: @leighsales @danilic just die leighsales you evil bitch”
ShowsOn@3139
Yeah, a pity the scum didn’t repeat it outside the house and get their sorry arses sued.
oooh Psephos reckons according to his mail the election will be sooner rather than later.
OK, we’ll see?
Noted!
Leigh Sales has turned into a very unattractive person.
Tricot:
The failure of leadership to properly defend the stimpac is well documented.
The failure of leadership to properly defend carbon pricing is well documented.
What did Leigh Sales do?
Personally I think Rudd will go later than Sept 14 unless he hits the front by a length in the polls 😀
[If not, then just point to the conclusions of the various reports, including the coroners, which were not available at the time and make a clear, unequivocal final statement on the matter.]
Perhaps with the lapse of time it will make it easier to make a statement of the facts.
The following mainly deals with a breach of contract but I do wonder how many house fires occurred in this scheme.
[Stuart had a head contract with the Commonwealth of Australia to replace wool insulation in residential properties as part of the Sydney Aircraft Noise Insulation Programme (SANIP). Stuart subcontracted this work to Condor, with each property being subject to a separate contract comprising a purchase order and scope of works schedule. This included a requirement that all down-lights be boxed before being covered with insulation.
In the case of one property, Condor breached the subcontract by failing to box a number of down-lights, the insulation ignited, and a fire broke out which damaged the property. SANIP then terminated its head contract with Stuart, resulting in a loss to Stuart of the profit it would have made on the remaining work, over $300,000.]
http://www.kensingtonswan.com/Legal-Updates-And-Events/Construction/2007/Subcontractor-not-liable-for-loss-of-profit-under-.aspx
leigh doesn’t like Rudd that’s what I could asertain. Pants bemused is English(Uk) slang for rubbish