Whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on

Amid all the chaos attendant to the leadership change, another round of major Labor preselections looms.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): ReachTEL, which had the Coalition ahead 58-42 in its last federal poll on May 3, has published an automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which has it down to 52-48, from primary votes of 38.3% for Labor, 44.1% for the Coalition and 8.7% for the Greens. As noted by Possum, extrapolation of state breakdowns produces a slight Labor majority on seats, thanks to the yield to be gained from a swing to Labor in Queensland. Kevin Rudd leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 51.6-48.4, with Abbott leading Julia Gillard 59.4-40.6. Views on the leadership change are finely split, with 44.1% agreeing and 42.4% disagreeing. A clear majority (56.9% to 30.2%) still believe Labor cannot win the election.

Roy Morgan offers state breakdowns on the no doubt over-analysed SMS poll it conducted immediately after Wednesday evening’s leadership vote, showing Labor’s two-party vote at 47.5% in New South Wales, 49.5% in Victoria, 51.5% in Queensland, 41% in Western Australia, 50% in South Australia and 63% in Tasmania (off progressively less convincing samples). It also provides rare state breakdowns from the multi-mode poll published on Monday, which you can observe by following the link.

In addition to the turmoil evident at the macro level, the week’s upheaval has transformed a number of contests at the electorate level:

Lalor (Labor 22.2%): Julia Gillard’s exit from politics creates yet another Labor vacancy in a plum Melbourne seat, in this case the electorate covering Werribee and Melton in western Melbourne. The Australian reports that factional and affirmative action considerations mean the seat is very likely to go to a woman from the Right. According to a Fairfax report, a “highly likely” nominee is Kimberley Kitching, a former Melbourne City councillor currently tasked with restoring order to the Health Services Union No. 1 branch as its acting general manager. Kitching is also “wife of notorious blogger Andrew Landeryou and a close ally of Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten”, and an unsuccessful candidate for the preselection to replace Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand in April. Fairfax reports that while Shorten “may” back Kitching, Conroy “could back another candidate”, as he did in Gellibrand. That could be Peter Khalil, “a former policy adviser during Kevin Rudd’s first period as Prime Minister and now director of corporate affairs at SBS”. Others mentioned are Hobsons Bay deputy mayor Luba Grigorovitch, a possible starter from the Left, and Katie Hall, the unsuccessful Roxon-backed candidate in Gellibrand.

Perth (Labor 5.8%): Yesterday’s retirement announcement by Stephen Smith created a vacancy in the least unsafe of Labor’s three WA seats. Early talk of possible nominees has included Tim Hammond, a Slater & Gordon lawyer who ran unsuccessfully for Swan in 2010, and Matt Keogh, vice-president of the Law Society of WA. Perhaps more speculatively, there are suggestions the opening might be of interest to state Shadow Treasurer Ben Wyatt, whose uncle Ken Wyatt is the Liberal member for the neighbouring seat of Hasluck, and Alannah MacTiernan, the former senior state government minister and unsuccessful federal candidate for Canning in 2010. MacTiernan called on Julia Gillard to resign on the night of Labor’s heavy defeat at the state election in March.

Rankin (Labor 5.4%): Craig Emerson’s exit creates a rare opening for aspiring Labor hopefuls in Queensland, in this case for a southern Brisbane seat which the party will be a lot more optimistic about now the local favourite is back in The Lodge. Tony Moore of Fairfax reports the contenders are likely to include Jim Chalmers, executive director of the Chifley Research Centre and a former adviser to Wayne Swan, and Barbara Stone, who held the state seat of Springwood from 2001 until her defeat at the March 2012 state election. The Australian also mentions Linus Power, a former adviser to Kevin Rudd who ran unsuccessfully in what had appeared to be the safe seat of Logan at the state election.

Kingsford Smith (Labor 5.2%): Peter Garrett is bringing down the curtain on a three-term parliamentary career as member for the electorate centred around Maroubra in southern coastal Sydney. Ean Higgins of The Australian reports Senator Matt Thistlethwaite might see the vacancy as an opportunity to switch houses. Bob Carr and Kristina Keneally, whose old state electorates wholly or largely corresponded with the seat, quickly scotched any suggestions that they might be interested. Carr’s successor as member for Maroubra, Michael Daley, is being “touted” for a possible move to the federal seat, while Keneally’s husband, Botany mayor Ben Keneally, has ruled himself out.

New England (Independent 16.8%) and Lyne (Independent 12.4%): The morning of the leadership change began with the unrelated dramas of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott announcing they would not seek re-election after a term spent contentiously propping up a minority government unpopular with their own constituents. That presumably clears the way for the respective Nationals candidates, Barnaby Joyce and David Gillespie, to straightforward victories at the coming election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,425 comments on “Whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on”

Comments Page 28 of 29
1 … 27 28 29

  2. 1335

    The drownings are only turning some humanitarianists people more in favour of anti-boat people measures because the alternative measures that would eliminate drownings and the people smuggling trade without increasing boarder control, letting them on the planes, get almost no media. I do my bit here but 1 poster commenting on a blog does not get the opinion widely disseminated.

  3. [Rupert can’t help himself, he is always trying to tell Australians what to think.]

    And it seems he used the wrong form of “its” too. Fran Barlow won’t be impressed.

  4. [I doubt Rudd could get such a policy that included withdrawing from the convention through the caucus.]

    That would only be necessary if boatist judges chose to interpret the Convention as requiring us to take the boaties in, which was certainly what it meant in 1951.

    [They have a good point about Australia being rich and big.]

    Yes of course, and that’s why I favour a large migrant intake and a large refugee quota within it. That doesn’t mean that the rest of the world can use us as a dumping ground for unwanted people.

  5. Australian public now totally disgusted with Murdoch Pess wrecking country with it’s sordid intrigues. Now for a quick bankruptcy.

  8. [We’ll always be big, but the rich bit is contingent on intelligent people being in charge and insane open-borders advocating people like yourself being kept as far away from power as possible.]
    Well and Clive Palmer who basically has the Greens asylum seeker policy. In fact at one stage he was advocating sending planes to Indonesia to bring people to Australia.

    Exactly how he would decide who was allowed on board the plane I don’t know.

  13. [1358
    ShowsOn

    We’ll always be big, but the rich bit is contingent on intelligent people being in charge and insane open-borders advocating people like yourself being kept as far away from power as possible.

    Well and Clive Palmer who basically has the Greens asylum seeker policy. In fact at one stage he was advocating sending planes to Indonesia to bring people to Australia.

    Exactly how he would decide who was allowed on board the plane I don’t know.]

    He could deploy the New Titanic.

  14. 1332

    That is true. It is very regrettable that boarder control has been set up around the world. It is all pretty much based on the same kind of anti-equality nonsenses that the White Australia Policy was. Race is not openly there much these days but the other cheap labour and us versus them notions remain.

  19. ShowsOn

    “Exactly how he would decide who was allowed on board the plane I don’t know.”

    Those with gambling addictions would probably move to the front of the line, followed by avid golfers and those with experience in white shoe manufacturing.

  21. [1369
    absolutetwaddle

    ShowsOn

    “Exactly how he would decide who was allowed on board the plane I don’t know.”

    Those with gambling addictions would probably move to the front of the line, followed by avid golfers and those with experience in white shoe manufacturing.]

    Or a desire to take up coal mining.

  24. Tom, if your position is that the system of sovereign nation-states which has existed since 1648 should be abolished and we should have a world government under whose rule we have no national borders (note spelling, please) and everyone can live wherever they like, I admire your idealism, although I don’t think such a world state will ever be created. If that’s not your position, your utterances on this silly are infantile and not worth responding to.

  26. [Exactly how he would decide who was allowed on board the plane I don’t know.]

    After the ground staff, canteen staff, immigration and customs officials and taxi drivers push their way on board I doubt there would be room for anyone else on the flight to paradise.

  27. I’m confident that Rudd, Carr, and Smith will come up with something better than what we have now. While I doubt the Left will like it, I think they will support it for the sake of party unity leading up to the election.

  30. [1377
    ShowsOn

    I’m confident that Rudd, Carr, and Smith will come up with something better than what we have now. While I doubt the Left will like it, I think they will support it for the sake of party unity leading up to the election.]

    The Act needs to be amended and to achieve this the political dynamic needs to be altered dramatically. The LNP have to be induced to accept a bi-partisan position. It is possible the kind of reform outlined by Psephos – and which I also subscribe to – can be made to stick. We should not have to choose between our conscience, order and safety. A way has to be found to fix this.

  31. Because the dong has such a low value, and vast sums are required for the smallest purchase, a person needed to carry around great wads of the stuff, or at least this was the case in the early 1990s. Great wads of dong, made of low grade paper, could easily get damp and turn to papier mache.

    As a result, the oft-heard advice was: “Don’t get your dong get.”

  33. [The Act needs to be amended and to achieve this the political dynamic needs to be altered dramatically. The LNP have to be induced to accept a bi-partisan position. It is possible the kind of reform outlined by Psephos – and which I also subscribe to – can be made to stick. We should not have to choose between our conscience, order and safety. A way has to be found to fix this.]
    Well I’ll take a wild guess and say if the Coalition wins the election they will have no problems doing an about face and amending the migration act so that people can be sent to Malaysia.

    Rudd should remind everyone that the Liberals, Greens and Nationals together – AS A COALITION – stopped asylum seekers being sent to Malaysia.

  34. [What’s adorable? Me for answering for Tom Hawkins or Tom Hawkins for his worldview? :)]

    I don’t think Tom Hawkins has stated his view of the world recently. There might be another Tom about the place who has.

  35. 1374

    I do support a democratic world federal government that would make the world much fairer place through a ban on immigration controls, world wide taxes (much harder to avoid), environmental regulation powers and many other things.

    I am not some crazy libertarian who believes in absolute competition between nations to decrease taxation and regulation to zero.

    It was obviously a subconscious slip based on the fact the borders are as elitist as the stereotypical boarding school!

  39. [We have moved on from Malaysia which will not work and probably never would have.]

    I disagree. I believe it would have worked. Obviously Abbott did too hence his fierce opposition to the idea. I still think it (or something similar involving another destination) is an option down the track.

  41. Oops, sorry, I got my Tom’s mixed up. It’s all Tom Hawkin’s (not Tom the first and the best) fault for posting after me.

  42. TOM HAWKINS ON THIS SITE SHOULD GET LOTS OF SLEEP RIGHT NOW AS HE HAS GOT A VERY IMPOTANT MATCH FOR GEELONG TOMORROW NIGHT AT KADINIA PARK

  43. DOCANTK RE ICELAND
    Thank you been out end of year here so boys taken for a pizza

    Always have my sunglasses
    Did you do Volcano tour, I wanted to do the one where you walk across the lava fields for 2 km then get lowered down into a volcano(which isn’t erupting at the moment) but the lady I am with isn’t keen so we are doing a more sedate one

  48. Or maybe Abbott opposed it because he believed it would not work.

    It is likely we will have 25 – 40 K irregular arrivals in the next 12 months. The Malaysia solution is for approximately 1 week’s worth of arrivals at enormous expense.

  49. alias@972

    Bemused.. You are at your most potent and articulate when you attack Abbott and the LNP policies.

    A hard ask when they don’t have any policies to speak of, just mindless slogans.

    The change of atmospherics over the past 3 days completely vindicates caucus’s action in re-installing Rudd. At last the ALP has a leader who knows how to craft and sell messages to the electorate.

Comments Page 28 of 29
1 … 27 28 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *