Whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on

Amid all the chaos attendant to the leadership change, another round of major Labor preselections looms.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): ReachTEL, which had the Coalition ahead 58-42 in its last federal poll on May 3, has published an automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which has it down to 52-48, from primary votes of 38.3% for Labor, 44.1% for the Coalition and 8.7% for the Greens. As noted by Possum, extrapolation of state breakdowns produces a slight Labor majority on seats, thanks to the yield to be gained from a swing to Labor in Queensland. Kevin Rudd leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 51.6-48.4, with Abbott leading Julia Gillard 59.4-40.6. Views on the leadership change are finely split, with 44.1% agreeing and 42.4% disagreeing. A clear majority (56.9% to 30.2%) still believe Labor cannot win the election.

Roy Morgan offers state breakdowns on the no doubt over-analysed SMS poll it conducted immediately after Wednesday evening’s leadership vote, showing Labor’s two-party vote at 47.5% in New South Wales, 49.5% in Victoria, 51.5% in Queensland, 41% in Western Australia, 50% in South Australia and 63% in Tasmania (off progressively less convincing samples). It also provides rare state breakdowns from the multi-mode poll published on Monday, which you can observe by following the link.

In addition to the turmoil evident at the macro level, the week’s upheaval has transformed a number of contests at the electorate level:

Lalor (Labor 22.2%): Julia Gillard’s exit from politics creates yet another Labor vacancy in a plum Melbourne seat, in this case the electorate covering Werribee and Melton in western Melbourne. The Australian reports that factional and affirmative action considerations mean the seat is very likely to go to a woman from the Right. According to a Fairfax report, a “highly likely” nominee is Kimberley Kitching, a former Melbourne City councillor currently tasked with restoring order to the Health Services Union No. 1 branch as its acting general manager. Kitching is also “wife of notorious blogger Andrew Landeryou and a close ally of Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten”, and an unsuccessful candidate for the preselection to replace Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand in April. Fairfax reports that while Shorten “may” back Kitching, Conroy “could back another candidate”, as he did in Gellibrand. That could be Peter Khalil, “a former policy adviser during Kevin Rudd’s first period as Prime Minister and now director of corporate affairs at SBS”. Others mentioned are Hobsons Bay deputy mayor Luba Grigorovitch, a possible starter from the Left, and Katie Hall, the unsuccessful Roxon-backed candidate in Gellibrand.

Perth (Labor 5.8%): Yesterday’s retirement announcement by Stephen Smith created a vacancy in the least unsafe of Labor’s three WA seats. Early talk of possible nominees has included Tim Hammond, a Slater & Gordon lawyer who ran unsuccessfully for Swan in 2010, and Matt Keogh, vice-president of the Law Society of WA. Perhaps more speculatively, there are suggestions the opening might be of interest to state Shadow Treasurer Ben Wyatt, whose uncle Ken Wyatt is the Liberal member for the neighbouring seat of Hasluck, and Alannah MacTiernan, the former senior state government minister and unsuccessful federal candidate for Canning in 2010. MacTiernan called on Julia Gillard to resign on the night of Labor’s heavy defeat at the state election in March.

Rankin (Labor 5.4%): Craig Emerson’s exit creates a rare opening for aspiring Labor hopefuls in Queensland, in this case for a southern Brisbane seat which the party will be a lot more optimistic about now the local favourite is back in The Lodge. Tony Moore of Fairfax reports the contenders are likely to include Jim Chalmers, executive director of the Chifley Research Centre and a former adviser to Wayne Swan, and Barbara Stone, who held the state seat of Springwood from 2001 until her defeat at the March 2012 state election. The Australian also mentions Linus Power, a former adviser to Kevin Rudd who ran unsuccessfully in what had appeared to be the safe seat of Logan at the state election.

Kingsford Smith (Labor 5.2%): Peter Garrett is bringing down the curtain on a three-term parliamentary career as member for the electorate centred around Maroubra in southern coastal Sydney. Ean Higgins of The Australian reports Senator Matt Thistlethwaite might see the vacancy as an opportunity to switch houses. Bob Carr and Kristina Keneally, whose old state electorates wholly or largely corresponded with the seat, quickly scotched any suggestions that they might be interested. Carr’s successor as member for Maroubra, Michael Daley, is being “touted” for a possible move to the federal seat, while Keneally’s husband, Botany mayor Ben Keneally, has ruled himself out.

New England (Independent 16.8%) and Lyne (Independent 12.4%): The morning of the leadership change began with the unrelated dramas of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott announcing they would not seek re-election after a term spent contentiously propping up a minority government unpopular with their own constituents. That presumably clears the way for the respective Nationals candidates, Barnaby Joyce and David Gillespie, to straightforward victories at the coming election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,425 comments on “Whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on”

Comments Page 1 of 29
1 2 29
  1. Channel 7 report a reachtel poll with a 38 point primary to Labor. Given Abbott’s been kept in a vacuum sealed box over the last few months I’m curious where things will go to from here. The only thing that has come from his mouth are the same tired slogans, repeated ad-nauseam, he really better have a new game plan. No wonder he wants an election now, he fears an extended period in the spotlight.

  2. I respected Julia and the incredible amount of progressive policies she implemented but that couldn’t balance the growing fear of Abbott getting control of both houses.
    No matter the way things have happened having Abbott as PM with a compliant senate was a scenario from Dante’s inferno. Now the Opus dei :monkey: may get government but won’t have the senate as well

  3. William

    Perhaps we’ve seen the last of Flipper Boy. He may have choked on a humongous shit sandwich. I wonder if he will update his false BISONS showing the the about 80% turnover of Labor ministers in the last three years now.

    Still, he’s not the only iDIOt who has spouted endless anti-reality crisp here.

  4. Let me give a potted summary of the last six-seven years in Australian politics.
    1. Rudd has no strong factional support in the ALP; he does not kneel to the union powerbrokers. But he is a significant political talent, particularly his ability to win votes;
    2. So the powerbrokers used him to win the 2007 election;
    3. Then, as soon as they could, they deposed him and put in a union rep;
    4. Then the tribal elders spent a lot of time declaring him unclean (that is, not a member of the tribe – a foreign element who should be expelled);
    3. However, the union rep didn’t do too good, and now we’re back to Kevin who, hopefully, will fulfill his historic mission to revitalise and broaden the base of the labor party.
    4. No wonder so many on this blog hate him.

  5. Diog, when the election is called & writs issued & if KRudd atill leads labor, send me your fav charity on Twitter, i will pay the $500 into that charity.

    Until then goodbye and William can go and fucked himself

  6. That list of members who shifted to Rudd was pretty obvious in most cases. They almost all had seats that were in serious trouble

    Clare, Rowland, O’Neill, Neumann,

    The only surprises were Feeney and Brodtman. It was however I think clear from Uhlman’s body lanaguage that Gai had shifted – perhaps she was one of Cassidy’s sources.

    Actually I wonder if there was some internal Canberra polling that may have been scaring the pants off Gai.

    I know that seat and it is NOT as safe for Labor as everyone imagines.

  7. Finns

    Gracious as always.

    Just like when Hillary lost. 😀

    Presumably Shorten is a Liberal troll from Menzies House.

    [“I indicated, after three years of very strong support, I felt that Kevin Rudd would give the Australian nation and people who believe in the Labor cause the best choice,” he said.


  8. Finnigans

    Now unless you or your friends are planning cement boots for Rudd, I think you can probably assume that Rudd will lead Labor to the next election.

  9. Finns

    [Diog, when the election is called & writs issued & if KRudd atill leads labor, send me your fav charity on Twitter, i will pay the $500 into that charity.

    Actually our bet was whether Gillard would be Labor leader at the next election. It had nothing to with Rudd.

  10. Again you have to question these media driven opinion polls

    and ask was labor under Gillard that bad or were around the 36-38% primary vote the majority of time

    i would say around the 36-38 % , news ltd/abbott coalition was acting too scared and needs the propaganda to finally work

  11. I think a little too much ios being made of the Cabinet departures

    In fact they were all pretty much dead wood and if Julia Gillard had won the ballot I would have been advising her to dump most of them in any case as they were each political baggage not needed.

    Swan fairly or unfairly has made a PR dog’s breakfast of selling the budget (not saying a bad job but selling it was hopeless. He had to go in any case – Perhaps a portfolio switch

    Conroy made a muck up of the media reforms and his NBN selling was average to terrible. He also carried a LOT of baggage from 2010 with his internet filter. As a salesman against Turnbull he had NO chance at all come election time. This will be a real challenge for Rudd. Who in his team can sell the NBN? If you were just after a competent minister then Crean might be the one but as a saleman No, no no. Perhaps Marles – he seems quite good in PR terms

    Ludwig – say no more – No loss to Cabinet at all. Simon Crean could easily fill this role

    Garrett – also not much of a loss. He was an average to OK minister but NOT a good salesman – I know it is unfair but so much is made of the whole Gillard “looks” thing but let us be honest – Garrett looks like a character from the Abbott’s family and just cannot sell convincingly. I think perhaps it is because he never smiles. Whatever it is he is NOT a salesman. Sorry for him personally of course.

    Combet – OK here is a REAL loss

    It is interesting about Smith. It was clear from the farewell speech by Rudd that there was NO sign of any tension between Rudd and Smith and indeed Rudd was clearly VERY fond of the guy. It seemed pretty genuine ie not being polite for the sake of it.

  12. Good morning, Dawn Patrol.

    As if The G was reading some of my posts, yesterday, about Oz political shenanigans, multiple Lazarus-like Prime Ministerial resurrections & musical PM chairs,
    10 of the most vicious fights in Australian politics

    Personal attacks, vicious insults, physical fights, backstabbing – Australian politicians have seen it all. Here are some of the worst examples.

    I must say I’m staggered (& angered at Oz curricula which fail to teach our youth about our rich history, democracy, Constitution and political history) by how little many posters know about us, or geology/geography (even, until recently, the MDB – including the world’s largest “fresh-water” lake, the GAB, and near-by Lake Eyre AB)- climatology, history, climates (plural sic) and democracy.

    Luckily I, like my parents, learnt those essentials in primary school, as I did the political & legal systems we adopted and tweaked, as “The History of British Freedom”.

    Poor fella, my country, where so many do not know it & its geology, geography, the essences & impacts of its climatic zones and its history – however many tens of thousand years of it, and the last 225 years’ development!

  13. daretotread

    Turnbull was no match for conroy

    because turnbull was the abbott version in broadband , he is a weathervane

  14. Turnbull can still not say one truth about broadband , whether it was about the nbn or the coalition farcical broadband and costings

  15. Turnbull has to continue to promote copper even though he believes the fibre to the home is 50 times superior

  16. The Morgan poll taken on the night asked “Now that Kevin Rudd is Leader of the ALP which party would receive your FIRST preference?”. Whilst they have to mention Kevin in the question because those asked might not know of the change, I suspect this would create a bias in the answers just as a question like “Now Tony Abbott has seen off another Labor leader….”

  17. MB
    Early yesterday morning I was at my local convenience store.
    Naturally I heard the conversation with customers etc.
    There was NO doubt about the preference for Rudd. Even liberal voters liked Rudd.

    Interestingly, Shorten copped a heap. He has suffered quite a bit BUT one comment was he is king maker – why not make him king. Curious.

    OK now I am in Qld. As I have said here (to the horror of Zoomster and acolytes), their opinions were partly discounted because they are from Victoria (and until a few months ago SA). I stick to this view. Those posters who hail from Victoria have a different vibe from those in other states (especially Qld).

    I suspect that one reason for the final shift to Rudd was a shift to the coalition in Victoria. Now for once this shift in Victoria (and SA) had nothing to do with Gillard, but rather to do with the collapse of Ford, so that there was a mood shift in the southern bastion, which suddenly became like the rest of the county.

  18. MB

    [Turnbull has to continue to promote copper even though he believes the fibre to the home is 50 times superior]

    and invests in its installation in Europe; which really “sez it all”!

  19. MB
    Labor has content in the NBN and I support it absolutely. BUT salesman against salesman means that Turnbull will win – he is good – very good at PR

  20. Mari

    As I said. I think eith the exception of Combet, Gillard would have needed to reshuffle or remove them any way – BEFORE the election. Swan, Ludwig and Conroy had each become electoral liabilities.

  21. daretotread

    Turnbull was and will continue to lose the broadband debate , the only save of face for turn bull, to get rid of abbott

  22. The government should go hard on Turnbull and coalition record on broadband

    The howard government OPEL is a lay down proof of what you will get from the coalition

    which is nothing , it never existed despite claiming there were rolling it out

    also the record of how the costings blew out in a year

    originally Opel

    cost 900 million

    6 months later 4.7 billion

    3 months later 19.4 billion

    3 months later 38 billion

  23. That sounds very similar to now with the coalition broadband policy

    except this time the costing started at 4.7 billion

  24. MB

    Turnbull will lose the NBN debate if Labor has someone with good PR skills to sell it. Qustion is WHO?


    Anyone who produced what happen with OPEL

  25. [ReachTEL ‏@ReachTEL 9m
    RT 7News @ReachTEL poll 3000 respondents. Coal 52-48 2PP (12pt change) ALP primary 38 (up9) Rudd better PM 52-48 incl 52-48 with women]

    will Rudd go early to capitalise on bounce?

    I don’t think so, as the whole election strategy (and team) needs to be replaced, which is not a trivial exercise. And he will want his feet under the desk for a while.

    the mention of G20 in St Petersburg in early September by Rudd is indicative.

    my tip is October 19, with Parliament being recalled for 2 weeks from 20 August. Heard it here first.

  26. daretotread
    Posted Friday, June 28, 2013 at 7:55 am | PERMALINK

    Not Swan – a communicator he is NOT


    Dont know about that , people were listening to him

    its the pro coalition media like with everything else had to use propaganda

  27. [OK now I am in Qld. As I have said here (to the horror of Zoomster and acolytes), their opinions were partly discounted because they are from Victoria (and until a few months ago SA). I stick to this view. Those posters who hail from Victoria have a different vibe from those in other states (especially Qld).]

    Amen to that, DTT! Ditto the Northern Territory and, I believe, WA (esp the Monsoonal/ mining areas).

    Although, because of Q’s size, its coastline, beaches, The Reef, rainforests & mineral wealth, decentralisation, geography, Monsoonal weather patterns, population diversity & spread, and industries, there are many “Queenslands” with distinctive histories, cultures and attitudes.

    Unlike southern states, Qld (& NT, WA) look to the North (PNG, Indonesia, SE Asia) & East (Pacific Islands) with “foreign countries” and their very different cultures that are but a tinny (PNG) or short boat trip (Indonesia) away – with which they share their Monsoonal Climate, its heat, cycles, massive Wets, raging storms & cyclones, and terrible droughts when the Monsoons fail – droughts which, because they rely on Monsoonal water above & below ground (artesian basins) affect Southern states, esp South Australia & inland NSW & Vic, worse than Qld.

    In a way, it’s a Big-Diverse-State version of Sydney’s & Melbourne’s cultural diversity; with big, relatively empty spaces between cities & towns.

    Most of the above, inc diversity and relative emptiness, Qld shares with NT and WA.

  28. sprocket_
    I agree. For Labor to win Rudd must destroy Abbott’s head and get policy front and centre into the spotlight.

  29. sprocket_
    Posted Friday, June 28, 2013 at 7:56 am | PERMALINK
    ReachTEL ‏@ReachTEL 9m
    RT 7News @ReachTEL poll 3000 respondents. Coal 52-48 2PP (12pt change) ALP primary 38 (up9) Rudd better PM 52-48 incl 52-48 with women

    will Rudd go early to capitalise on bounce?

    I don’t think so, as the whole election strategy (and team) needs to be replaced, which is not a trivial exercise. And he will want his feet under the desk for a while.

    the mention of G20 in St Petersburg in early September by Rudd is indicative.


    I was thinking about that too sprocket

    rudd wouldnt miss the opportunity to travel around the world , while he is the pm

    to upset newsltd/abbott coalition

    the election could be held in november

  30. Diogenes

    [“Any chance of a count of posts by frequent bloggers who said anyone suggesting Labor could change to Rudd were imbeciles?”]

    8462 is the figure, after a quick scan of the last couple of weeks. 🙂

  31. KB

    [now we’re back to Kevin who, hopefully, will fulfill his historic mission to revitalise and broaden the base of the labor party.]

    Seriously? Like he did last time he was Leader of the Party by…..er, um…..

    My absolute last word on this subject, because I’m (hopefully, depending on whether HO gave the all clear last night) about to launch my candidate on the world and thus will be in campaign mode…

    I personally have never denied that Rudd might win the election and Julia might lose.

    What I have consistently said is that (i) he isn’t the white knight so many posters here stoically believe and (ii) his assuming the leadership has many potential risks for the future of the Labor party (and thus Australian politics) which potentially far outweigh any gains.

    And, yes, bemused, when branch members in my electorate (not just in my branch) decide they’re going to resign, they do the courtesy of telling me. Perhaps they respect me or something, I couldn’t say.

    Of course, I did the best I could to persuade them to stay around. Just as I said, in the radio and newspaper interviews I spent a lot of my time doing yesterday, that we should get behind the leader and work for a Labor victory.

  32. daretotread

    Agree on those ministers

    The main thing is to scatter the hollow wing bosses to the four winds. Unlike Gillard, they won’t have a snowflake’s chance of controlling Ruddd this time round.

  33. The exit of ministers is a big net positive for Rudd. Yes Combet
    is the one big loss but crucially on economic matters Bowen is very
    good and has hit the ground running and Penny Wong is perhaps
    the biggest trump card Rudd has in the switch him. Negates the
    gender argument and of course she is very effective.

    Most significantly the exit allows Rudd to further rebrand and reboot
    quickly and potently.

  34. Morning all.

    The exit of ministers just continues the theme of chaos, instability and petty vindictiveness.

    Thanks for the link to David Pope, BK. Perfectly captures things.

  35. On Danby and Melbourne Ports apparently the LNP is all over the seat like
    a rash sniffing an unlikely win on the back of the Yom Kippur factor.
    Every seat counts as 2010 amply demonstrated.

  36. alias

    Wong does indeed negate the gender rubbish. It wasn’t sexism that got Wong and the rest of the caucus for Rudd, it was voterism. Failure of leadership has nothing to do with gender.

Comments Page 1 of 29
1 2 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *