Whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on

Amid all the chaos attendant to the leadership change, another round of major Labor preselections looms.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): ReachTEL, which had the Coalition ahead 58-42 in its last federal poll on May 3, has published an automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which has it down to 52-48, from primary votes of 38.3% for Labor, 44.1% for the Coalition and 8.7% for the Greens. As noted by Possum, extrapolation of state breakdowns produces a slight Labor majority on seats, thanks to the yield to be gained from a swing to Labor in Queensland. Kevin Rudd leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 51.6-48.4, with Abbott leading Julia Gillard 59.4-40.6. Views on the leadership change are finely split, with 44.1% agreeing and 42.4% disagreeing. A clear majority (56.9% to 30.2%) still believe Labor cannot win the election.

Roy Morgan offers state breakdowns on the no doubt over-analysed SMS poll it conducted immediately after Wednesday evening’s leadership vote, showing Labor’s two-party vote at 47.5% in New South Wales, 49.5% in Victoria, 51.5% in Queensland, 41% in Western Australia, 50% in South Australia and 63% in Tasmania (off progressively less convincing samples). It also provides rare state breakdowns from the multi-mode poll published on Monday, which you can observe by following the link.

In addition to the turmoil evident at the macro level, the week’s upheaval has transformed a number of contests at the electorate level:

Lalor (Labor 22.2%): Julia Gillard’s exit from politics creates yet another Labor vacancy in a plum Melbourne seat, in this case the electorate covering Werribee and Melton in western Melbourne. The Australian reports that factional and affirmative action considerations mean the seat is very likely to go to a woman from the Right. According to a Fairfax report, a “highly likely” nominee is Kimberley Kitching, a former Melbourne City councillor currently tasked with restoring order to the Health Services Union No. 1 branch as its acting general manager. Kitching is also “wife of notorious blogger Andrew Landeryou and a close ally of Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten”, and an unsuccessful candidate for the preselection to replace Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand in April. Fairfax reports that while Shorten “may” back Kitching, Conroy “could back another candidate”, as he did in Gellibrand. That could be Peter Khalil, “a former policy adviser during Kevin Rudd’s first period as Prime Minister and now director of corporate affairs at SBS”. Others mentioned are Hobsons Bay deputy mayor Luba Grigorovitch, a possible starter from the Left, and Katie Hall, the unsuccessful Roxon-backed candidate in Gellibrand.

Perth (Labor 5.8%): Yesterday’s retirement announcement by Stephen Smith created a vacancy in the least unsafe of Labor’s three WA seats. Early talk of possible nominees has included Tim Hammond, a Slater & Gordon lawyer who ran unsuccessfully for Swan in 2010, and Matt Keogh, vice-president of the Law Society of WA. Perhaps more speculatively, there are suggestions the opening might be of interest to state Shadow Treasurer Ben Wyatt, whose uncle Ken Wyatt is the Liberal member for the neighbouring seat of Hasluck, and Alannah MacTiernan, the former senior state government minister and unsuccessful federal candidate for Canning in 2010. MacTiernan called on Julia Gillard to resign on the night of Labor’s heavy defeat at the state election in March.

Rankin (Labor 5.4%): Craig Emerson’s exit creates a rare opening for aspiring Labor hopefuls in Queensland, in this case for a southern Brisbane seat which the party will be a lot more optimistic about now the local favourite is back in The Lodge. Tony Moore of Fairfax reports the contenders are likely to include Jim Chalmers, executive director of the Chifley Research Centre and a former adviser to Wayne Swan, and Barbara Stone, who held the state seat of Springwood from 2001 until her defeat at the March 2012 state election. The Australian also mentions Linus Power, a former adviser to Kevin Rudd who ran unsuccessfully in what had appeared to be the safe seat of Logan at the state election.

Kingsford Smith (Labor 5.2%): Peter Garrett is bringing down the curtain on a three-term parliamentary career as member for the electorate centred around Maroubra in southern coastal Sydney. Ean Higgins of The Australian reports Senator Matt Thistlethwaite might see the vacancy as an opportunity to switch houses. Bob Carr and Kristina Keneally, whose old state electorates wholly or largely corresponded with the seat, quickly scotched any suggestions that they might be interested. Carr’s successor as member for Maroubra, Michael Daley, is being “touted” for a possible move to the federal seat, while Keneally’s husband, Botany mayor Ben Keneally, has ruled himself out.

New England (Independent 16.8%) and Lyne (Independent 12.4%): The morning of the leadership change began with the unrelated dramas of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott announcing they would not seek re-election after a term spent contentiously propping up a minority government unpopular with their own constituents. That presumably clears the way for the respective Nationals candidates, Barnaby Joyce and David Gillespie, to straightforward victories at the coming election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,425 comments on “Whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on”

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  1. 1295

    I doubt that Afghanistan will remain as safe as it is now. There are also severe issues with safety for many in Afghanistan now.

  2. Psephos

    [Well Sarah it’s time to woman up and face the facts.]

    😆

    I would, only I’m unsure if they’re the “facts”.

    I just don’t believe 100% of AS are economic migrants. And I believe we have a responsibility to help refugees especially from countries where we have indulged in a little real live action to keep our defence skills honed.

  3. Psephos

    Not sure that invading Afghansitan has solved the problem – in fact made it worse.

    Also it is a little easier to do that when there are clear ethnic locations which you MIGHT have a chance of protecting.

    Just as in the Balkans it is harder in the middle east because the populations are so mixed up.

    What you are actually talking about is colonialism and that has not had a good wrap.
    It is too expensive for a start

  4. Nemspy @ 1298, sure, but you were comparing the “sense” of Psephos with the “xenophobia” of some vague group and claiming it was odd. Why should it be odd that two different entities say two different things?

  5. [I doubt the Sri Lankans coming directly from Sri Lanka have international travel documents.]

    I don’t know what they have. In any case we are sending them home as quickly as they arrive. We can do that because Sri Lanka will take them back. Most of our boaties can’t be sent back because (a) we don’t know where they actually come from, (b) even if we do we can’t prove it, and (c) some countries, notably Iran, won’t take them anyway. Once they’re in our custody we are for the most part stuck with them. That’s why we have to deter them from trying to come.

  7. 1300

    Why should we dictate to them which way to go?

    There is a rather nasty regime in Sri Lanka now and India is not so likely to be friendly to the non-Tamil refugees.

  8. Received this today from the ABC. Will be interested to see how the matter unfolds.

    [Thank you for your email re the Insiders program broadcast on 16 June.

    Please be assured that your concerns have been noted by our unit and conveyed to ABC News management who have provided us with the following advice:

    The comments made by Piers Akerman about the Prime Minister’s partner on Insiders on the 16th of June were inappropriate. This was immediately made clear to Mr Akerman by Insiders host Barrie Cassidy and the other panellists. Before the program was over, Mr Akerman had issued his own apology for the remarks.

    Because Insiders is a live program, ABC News expects all of its guests to be capable of operating in a professional and appropriate manner.

    ABC News will be reviewing when and under what circumstances any future invitations for Mr Akerman to appear on Insiders might be issued.

    Thank you for writing and providing the ABC with the opportunity to respond to your concerns.

    Yours sincerely

    Anna Uszko
    ABC Audience and Consumer Affairs]

  9. I found it very liberating recently when I was able to finally admit that my previous advocacy for boatpeople was just moral grandstanding and vanity and an attempt to prove to others how superior a person to them I was.

    It required an act of significant mental gymnastics to ignore all the massive holes in the arguments and logic underpinning the pro-boatpeople position.

    I am glad I am no longer one of these rancid, embarrassing people.

  10. Psephos

    I think that if we send back Sri Lankan, Tamils who are later executed Australian could find themselves in the dock in an international court.

    I have not problems sending back Singhalese but not Tamils.

  11. [Not sure that invading Afghansitan has solved the problem – in fact made it worse.]

    Rubbish. As I just pointed out, nearly 6 million people have been successfully resettled. There is a small trickle of people out again, but for the most part the refugee issue has been solved. The period since 2001 has been the longest period of economic growth and social progress in Afghanistan in its entire history. The country has been transformed economically and socially, especially for women. The security situation is patchy, but much better than it was. I doubt Afghanistan will become a model democracy, but it will at least become a stable state capable of supporting its population.

  12. alias

    “I don’t mind if Bob Carr and Kevin Rudd give some hard-right rhetoric on refugees and boats a very big run during the election campaign.

    Sadly, it is necessary to win over the xenophobes that populate much of western Sydney.

    Just so long as they wind back the rhetoric and reality after the election.”

    Are you joking? If they tried such a thing they would be rightly crucified, much like Julia was for the carbon tax ‘lie’ – except in this case it would be a far more wilful attempt to actively deceive the Australian public. You’re in fantasy land if you think Rudd doesn’t mean it when he’s sending out strong anti-asylum notions.

  13. [Received this today from the ABC. Will be interested to see how the matter unfolds.]

    There is nothing sadder than the sight of pensioners with too much time on their hands getting out their typewriters and indulging themselves in the classical crank’s pastime of the culture of official complaint.

    I just pity the poor people whose job it is to deal with all the sad old cranks making their pointless complaints. They must be so tempted just to write: “Sir, please get a life.”

  15. Great grandfather was a Swedish sailor who jumped ship in Newcastle. He couldn’t speak a word of English.

    I guess I should start packing my bags for Villawood?

  16. Battle Turkeys

    I found it very liberating recently when I was able to finally admit that my previous advocacy for boatpeople was just moral grandstanding and vanity and an attempt to prove to others how superior a person to them I was

    It required an act of significant mental gymnastics to ignore all the massive holes in the arguments and logic underpinning the pro-boatpeople position.

    I am glad I am no longer one of these rancid, embarrassing people.

    Heh, you do realise that this very comment reveals you’re still as vain and as prone to moral granstanding as ever?

  17. Battle Turkeys

    “I just pity the poor people whose job it is to deal with all the sad old cranks making their pointless complaints. They must be so tempted just to write: “Sir, please get a life.””

    I get the same impulse from reading your posts.

  18. [I think that if we send back Sri Lankan, Tamils who are later executed Australian could find themselves in the dock in an international court.]

    Australia has no responsibility for Sri Lanka’s internal affairs. No doubt it’s an unpleasant place at present, but that’s also true of about one-third of the world, by population. Are we obligated to accept the entire populations of China, Vietnam, Burma, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Cuba, etc etc etc, if they can somehow get to our borders?

  21. [guytaur
    Posted Friday, June 28, 2013 at 11:19 pm | PERMALINK
    Sarah

    Believe our court based evidence of the Refugee Tribunal or the musings of Senator Carr.

    Tough choice.]

    No choice there at all.

  22. 1300

    Why should we dictate to them which way to go?

    There is a rather nasty regime in Sri Lanka now and India is not so likely to be friendly to the non-Tamil refugees.

    What does that mean and what is your evidence (other than sources that have links with the remnants of the tigers)?

    If nasty regime is a reason for becoming a refugee I demand admission to the country of my choice (the German cantons of Switzerland have always appealed) once Abbott is elected.

    The point about Tamil Nadu is that if you are a political refugee fearing for your life then it is a close, safe and politically and racially appropriate choice. If you are an economic refugee not so much

  23. [Heh, you do realise that this very comment reveals you’re still as vain and as prone to moral granstanding as ever?]

    My grandstanding is generally perceived as morally repugnant these days rather than vain.

  24. What about this. The Australian government doesn’t turn boats around, it escorts them back to Indonesia and then pays the Indonesian government to fly the people to Malaysia.

    Thus the Malaysian people swap deal can commence without the need for amending the migration act.

  25. [Great grandfather was a Swedish sailor who jumped ship in Newcastle. He couldn’t speak a word of English.]

    A country can sustain a small amount of illegal immigration by individuals. That’s not we’re currently facing. I’m sure you can see that.

  26. Kevin Rudd’s done it again.

    He’s won over PNG.

    Apparently Little Kevin Rudd, aged now 5 years, is something of a celebrity and it wrapped Big Kev is PM again and is waiting for a phone call from him.

  29. [What about this. The Australian government doesn’t turn boats around, it escorts them back to Indonesia and then pays the Indonesian government to fly the people to Malaysia.]

    Indonesia won’t take them, as they have made abundantly clear. I do wish everyone would grasp that THERE IS NO REGIONAL SOLUTION. Neither Indonesia nor Malaysia has the slightest interest in helping us solve this problem. They view Australia as a big rich country which can easily take all these people, while they are poor and overcrowded, so what is our problem?

  30. Battle Turkeys@1323


    My grandstanding is generally perceived as morally repugnant these days rather than vain.

    The only thing that has changed is which side of the argument you’re on. Your contempt of other people now is still as repugnant as you’ve admitted your contempt of other people was then.

  31. _sprocket

    “http://twitter.com/CarleenFrost/status/350598796280999936/photo/1”

    I’m going to choose to view this as darkly humorous instead of retch-inducing. Jesus.

  32. Liyana 1315
    Until the late Victorian period the concept of passports, visas and restricting entry to any who wanted to come here was considered quite scandalous.
    The first restrictions were in the gold rushes and it took the NSW Parliament 4 goes before the law restricting Chinese entry was eventually passed immediately after the Lambing Flat riot. Even then the law was rescinded after 5 years and only reimposed in 1881 in response to a smallpox epidemic that the Chinese were wrongly blamed for. This was the start of White Australua. As a Swede you forebear would have been given free entry until well into the 20th century. He could however been arrested for breaking his contract as a seaman.

  33. Goodnight

    From sounds of it good polling numbers for Labor Tomorrow. From what papers say ABC Local Radio. Did not catch paper and thus poll

  34. [Indonesia won’t take them, as they have made abundantly clear.]
    Well Alexander Downer today claimed that Indonesia will take them back quietly, they just don’t like it when the Australian Government talks about it. Of course Downer could just be mischief making.

    And if these people are sent to Malaysia, Indonesia wouldn’t actually be taking them back. It would be passing them on.

  35. I’ve been having this argument here for about four years now, making the same points over and over again in response to the same silly, illogical and factually false boatist claims. Gradually I am winning. One by one the boatists are retreating from their positions. Few now argue that the boaties are all oppressed refugees whom we must admit willy-nilly. Most now agree that we need to stop the rorting of our migration system, if only to stop people drowning. Many are still unwilling to follow this premise to its logical conclusion, namely the closing of our border and (if necessary) withdrawal from the Convention. I understand that these are distasteful conclusions for people with humanitarian motivations. But they are inescapable, and gradually you are all coming to agree about that. Sadly it’s probably too late for this government, unless Rudd and Carr are preparing a really radical policy announcement sometime soon.

  38. victoria

    “absolutetwaddle

    What can one say!”

    I’ll tell you after I’ve attempted to drown myself in the nearest toilet.

  41. [1325
    Psephos

    Great grandfather was a Swedish sailor who jumped ship in Newcastle. He couldn’t speak a word of English.]

    And while he may have been an illegal entrant, he could not have been a refugee.

  43. [Many are still unwilling to follow this premise to its logical conclusion, namely the closing of our border and (if necessary) withdrawal from the Convention. I understand that these are distasteful conclusions for people with humanitarian motivations. But they are inescapable, and gradually you are all coming to agree about that. Sadly it’s probably too late for this government, unless Rudd and Carr are preparing a really radical policy announcement sometime soon.]
    I doubt Rudd could get such a policy that included withdrawing from the convention through the caucus.

  47. [They have a good point about Australia being rich and big.]

    We’ll always be big, but the rich bit is contingent on intelligent people being in charge and insane open-borders advocating people like yourself being kept as far away from power as possible.

  48. [Australian public now totally disgusted with Labor Party wrecking country with it’s sordid intrigues. Now for a quick election.]
    Rupert can’t help himself, he is always trying to tell Australians what to think.

  50. That mad Liberal Senator on the news tonight gave an arresting performance…quite startling..so mad as to have a quite theatrical quality..might have career in grand opera(if she can also sing)

    She might win the coverted ” Sarah Hanson Young Medal” for the Most Annoying Person on TV( though the Vic Lib..O’Dwyer on Lateline tonight is rude and interrupts and talks over everyone and would be a real contended
    The ALP man on Lateline was too polite by halves…she could only be stopped by some really rude comments

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