Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

An eagerly awaited Newspoll has both parties down on the primary vote and little change to two-party preferred. Headline grabber: Labor primary vote below 30%.

The Australian’s Troy Bramston tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. However, the poll has Labor’s primary vote below 30% for the first time this year, down one to 29%, with the Coalition also down a point to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has reached a new peak of 45-33, up from 43-35 at the last poll three weeks ago, but personal ratings are little changed: Julia Gillard is steady at 28% approval and 62% disapproval, while Abbott is down one to 36% and steady at 53%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down on a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now down to 34% with the Coalition and the Greens steady at 47% and 8%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 54-46 to 55-45. Also covered were intention to vote for a different party in the Senate (9% yes, 67% no); leaders attributes (Julia Gillard for some reason doing better than when the question was last asked in April, and Tony Abbott slightly worse); support for a long list of decisions made by the Rudd-Gillard government, the only net negative result being for the carbon tax; Tony Abbott’s intention to scrap the Gonski education reforms (32% approve, 44% disapprove); and sexism and discrimination against women.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll reverses an unusually good result for Labor last week, with the Coalition up 2.5% to 47% and Labor down the same amount to 30.5%, with the Greens unchanged at 9%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5 on preferences from the previous election, and from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent allocation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Player One

    Not the old ‘But Abbott will be even worse’ line? Is that still out there? How can it be when the push is for the cellar dwellers in charge of Labor to piss off and give the party back to people who can run a proper Labor vision & policy suite, lead on it, and deliver? The idea is to try to keep Abbott out, or at least keep him from getting control of the Senate. Only such change can achieve that.

    So I don’t think the concept of the lesser of two evils is relevant at present.

  2. Player One

    I am not a conservative. I’d be more progressive than most Labor types.

    And I haven’t worn a tie in ten years.

    Its time for people to admit Gillard isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed. That’s the number one reason Labor is going to get thrashed. She’s just very, very average.

  3. [How can it be when the push is for the cellar dwellers in charge of Labor to piss off and give the party back to people who can run a proper Labor vision & policy suite, lead on it, and deliver?]

    I thought the plan was to give it to Kevin Rudd.

  4. Diog is a conservative according to player one.

    Thats the strangest comment ever written here.

    All the doors and windows have fallen of the pb house tonight. MB will be here later with the popcorn i suspect

  5. [No it wasn’t. ]

    How many men have worn blue ties in their lives?

    You must be part of the Labor Brains Trust. Stupid.

  6. ML
    Yep. He is enjoying his hubris sandwhich while he can. He is about to find out that the country cannot be run by three word slogans.

  7. Wakefield

    Hopefully, but the better path is for the Short-Cons and Co with Gillard to hand in their chips now. That is the only way to stop Abbott, or at least get close for next time. The party cannot continue in the hands of these idiots whatever happens before the election aftermath.

  8. [ So I don’t think the concept of the lesser of two evils is relevant at present. ]

    No, somehow I didn’t think you would. I have never heard you utter a single criticism of either Abbott or the LNP.

    You are just a bag of hatred for the ALP in general, and for Gillard in particular.

    You are so transparent I think that in future I will have trouble even reading your posts.

  9. [Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 10:13 pm | PERMALINK
    Brandis having a ball on QandA tonight!

    1256
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 10:13 pm | PERMALINK
    Richo comprehensively sticking the knife into Gillard.]

    yes
    &
    yes

    all you can do if your a lib is smile
    all you can do if your a lab is laugh or agree with Baghdad Bob 🙂

  10. Sean

    She didn’t say what you claim she said. That’s a fact.

    Go on continuing to be ignorant though. I realise it will be a lot harder to troll us if you cared about accuracy.

  11. Jones slaughtering Sloan on her words that child care workers were ‘dim witted’. He kept dragging her back to her own words. She looked embarrassed, chagrinned and thoroughly nasty and stupid. She can give it but she cannot take it. Beautiful.

  12. Dio, it was an attempt to recapture the momentum of the misogyny speech. The only problem is the misogyny speech was a smackdown of an idiotic remark by Abbott. Whereas the blue tie one was a planned speech that was completely transparent in its intent. A massive blunder.

    One of her biggest flaws is when contrives passion (similarly when she “wept” in parliament for the QLD flood victims.) Voters can see right through that crap and feel insulted.

    Having said that, there is a massive problem with sexism in this country and I do believe, at times (not always), Gillard is the victim of it (like many women, including other politicians, on all sides of the chamber)

  13. [How many men have worn blue ties in their lives?

    You must be part of the Labor Brains Trust. Stupid.]

    Not as stupid as the brainless wonder who takes things meant colloquially as literal.

  14. Player One

    Given I am to the left of Labor on everything, and it is in government, why would I concern myself with the LNP, especially when they are in opposition?

  15. [Simon Thomsen ‏@SimonThomsen 1m
    RT @MolksPolitica: Judith Sloane’s only experiences with Childcare Workers is when she swoops in on her broom to steal children for her pot.
    Retweeted by Mike Carlton]

    Liberal type witch’s are ok apparently…..

  16. r

    Sloan is not a witch.

    Sloan is a thoroughly nasty piece of work who has been exposed for what she is on live national television.

  17. [ Its time for people to admit Gillard isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed. That’s the number one reason Labor is going to get thrashed. She’s just very, very average. ]

    Compared to Abbott?. Who’s kidding who here?

  18. [She didn’t say what you claim she said. That’s a fact.

    Go on continuing to be ignorant though. I realise it will be a lot harder to troll us if you cared about accuracy.]

    Remind us… what did she say.

    So sick of Gillardistas saying “it wasn’t what she said” when it’s EXACTLY what she said. Men in blue ties are evil. She said it, we are holding her to account.

  19. [zoidlord
    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 10:18 pm | PERMALINK
    @rummel/1261

    So it’s Lib vs Lab and not based on policy?]

    No, its a free cleaning out service for Labor this year. Not even a donkey would vote for Labor this year and why would they when the last week of parliament before the election Labor are still fighting each other.

  20. [Liberal type witch’s are ok apparently…..]

    Hang on is this a “ditch” version of the witch (apparently bad in PB world) or a “ding dong” version of the witch (apparently good in PB world)!

    :devil:

  21. Gillard’s treatment of rudd was not exactly nice either. I don’t warm to her at all – she seems cold, hard and (mis) calculating. I’d rather hug steven smith and im not gay.

  22. [Liberal type witch’s are ok apparently…..]

    It’s not. Those sorts of comments do not belong in political discourse. Whether it be Julia Gillard, Kate Ellis, Julie Bishop, Sophie Mirabella, Sarah Hanson-Young, Christine Milne or any other woman anywhere, you don’t make sexist remarks about them. It’s really simple.

    You can criticise them for what they say and what they believe, you can dislike them and you can oppose them but not be sexist.

    This is the real problem. And it should stop. It doesn’t matter who you vote for this year, you can do so without being a stupid bigot about it!

  23. r, ML

    I agree that whoever used witch symbolism to criticise Sloan was waging gender war.

    This is a pity. The real issue with Sloan is that she is a nasty piece of reactionary work. Very nasty.

  24. I already posted what she said.

    There was no “men in blue ties are evil” in there.

    And unlike Romney, who *was* insulting the voters, Gillard was talking only about the shadow ministry.

  25. [Very nasty.]

    She certainly made a nasty and stupid comment there about child care workers.

    Given that I don’t read what she writes I didn’t know that she had said that….

  26. this what she said.

    Australian women, who benefit from Labor’s purpose, from Labor’s passion; I’m here to tell you today, to urge you, to get out and fight. We’ve got a hard fight ahead but it’s a hard fight to wage and we must win on 14 September. On that day, 14 September, we are going to make a big decision as a nation. It’s a decision about whether, once again, we will banish women’s voices from our political life. I invite you to imagine it. A prime minister – a man in a blue tie – who goes on holidays to be replaced by a man in a blue tie. A treasurer, who delivers a budget wearing a blue tie, to be supported by a finance minister – another man in a blue tie. Women once again banished from the centre of Australia’s political life. – See more at: http://australianpolitics.com/2013/06/11/women-for-gillard-speech.html#sthash.vRs6yX16.dpuf

    Only a weak man would take any offence and only a weaker minded moron would take offence on behalf of the Liberals Party.

    Nice distraction from the central theme of the speech by the MSM and Liberal morons

  27. [ I am not a conservative. I’d be more progressive than most Labor types. ]

    Well, glad to hear it. You will naturally then be supporting Gillard on as the only possible hope of preventing the Tories from winning the next election.

  28. Liberals and MSM too stupid to see the list of policy successes of the Govt…oh hang they did see them, shat their pants and focused on blue ties

    Our party – the Labor Party – is the party of the many, not the few. That means we’re the party of women. Labor is the party of equal opportunity. That means we are the party of women. Labor is the party that leaves no one behind. That means we are the party of women. You know that and I know that, and we want to make sure that that is heard loud and clear. Look at our history. It was Labor that introduced maternity allowances, the first great wave of social reform after federation. It was Labor that gave women the chance to serve and shine in the farms and factories of wartime in the 1940s. It was Gough Whitlam’s Labor that delivered the first pay equality case and started federal funding for childcare. And it was only ever Labor that was going to give this nation its first female prime minister. It was only ever Labor that was going to put paid parental leave on the agenda and get it done. Only Labor that understood that childcare was about affordability, but it was about quality too, and it’s about supporting the women who work in childcare. That’s why we’ve increased childcare rebates, focussed on higher quality standards, and we’re supporting the women – predominantly women – who work in childcare centres as well. It was only ever Labor that was going to increase the tax-free threshold to more than $18,000, benefiting low-income workers, predominantly working women. And it was only ever Labor that was going to deliver a historic increase in the pension, particularly of benefit to single pensioners, disproportionately women, and it was only ever Labor that was going to reduce tax on superannuation for part-time working mums. It’s only Labor that ever would have put in an equal pay principle that actually worked; that worked to make a difference so women in social and community services can get the pay and recognition that they deserve. It was only ever Labor that was going to make sure that we had fairness and decency at work. It was only ever Labor that was going to out a National Disability Insurance Scheme on the agenda, so women with disability and women who bear the burden of caring can get the supports that they need. It was only ever Labor that was going to invest in the future by rolling out the National Broadband Network, and it’s only Labor that is going to invest in the education of every child in every school. That’s Labor’s agenda, and it’s only Labor that would deliver an agenda like that for Australia’s women. Ben Chifley famously spoke of the things worth fighting for. I’m here today to tell you about the women worth fighting for. – See more at: http://australianpolitics.com/2013/06/11/women-for-gillard-speech.html#sthash.vRs6yX16.dpuf

  29. Sean Tisme

    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    She didn’t say what you claim she said. That’s a fact.

    Go on continuing to be ignorant though. I realise it will be a lot harder to troll us if you cared about accuracy.

    Remind us… what did she say.

    So sick of Gillardistas saying “it wasn’t what she said” when it’s EXACTLY what she said. Men in blue ties are evil. She said it, we are holding her to account.
    ——————————————————–

    No she didn’t – liar.

    You got a mention in my post #1283

  30. AussieAchmed

    But these ‘weaker men’ were offended according to the polling.

    It is right to stand up to the ignorant on one issue, why has this leadership not done so on others, such as marriage discrimination, or refugees?

  31. Incidentally had I been a Liberal MP I would have shown up the next day in a yellow tie to remind people of Peter Costello.

  32. [ So sick of Gillardistas saying “it wasn’t what she said” when it’s EXACTLY what she said. Men in blue ties are evil. She said it, we are holding her to account. ]

    Ummm. Ever heard of a metaphor?

    No, thought not. *sigh*

    Roll on Gonski!

  33. Hypothetical:

    What would Bludgers say about this speech from a Prime Minister:

    “Australian whites, who benefit from Labor’s purpose, from Labor’s passion; I’m here to tell you today, to urge you, to get out and fight. We’ve got a hard fight ahead but it’s a hard fight to wage and we must win on 14 September. On that day, 14 September, we are going to make a big decision as a nation. It’s a decision about whether, once again, we will banish white voices from our political life. I invite you to imagine it. A prime minister – a black – who goes on holidays to be replaced by another black. A treasurer, who delivers a budget – a black person, to be supported by a finance minister – another black person. Whites once again banished from the centre of Australia’s political life.”

    See?

  34. Why do you say this, btw? You do seem rather pessimistic lately.

    I note in passing that Briefly predicted a decline in the currency and the markets several weeks back.

  35. Alistair Campbell

    “Kevin Rudd has to decide whether, to use a British expression, to piss or get off the pot.”

    Colourful.

  36. Boerwar

    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    Brandis reckons that he is going to write a letter to the police about the Saatchi attack on Nigella.
    ———————————————————-

    didn’t that happen in London? Why would Brandis be writing to the British Police?

    Who nominated the Aust Liberal Opposition Party kings of the world. First Indonesia now England –next the WORLD…

  37. [ What would Bludgers say about this speech from a Prime Minister: ]

    Actually, I’d probably to say that you are an evil and malicious person for trying to drag racism into a situation where none was present before, in an appalling attempt to derail a debate that you so obviously fear you are losing.

  38. [Hypothetical:

    What would Bludgers say about this speech from a Prime Minister:]

    OMG OMG OMG!

    Thats not what she said! She said Men who Wear Blue Ties are absolute Pricks!

    Let’s try and spin this like Gillard was actually making a non-sexist point!

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