Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

An eagerly awaited Newspoll has both parties down on the primary vote and little change to two-party preferred. Headline grabber: Labor primary vote below 30%.

The Australian’s Troy Bramston tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. However, the poll has Labor’s primary vote below 30% for the first time this year, down one to 29%, with the Coalition also down a point to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has reached a new peak of 45-33, up from 43-35 at the last poll three weeks ago, but personal ratings are little changed: Julia Gillard is steady at 28% approval and 62% disapproval, while Abbott is down one to 36% and steady at 53%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down on a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now down to 34% with the Coalition and the Greens steady at 47% and 8%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 54-46 to 55-45. Also covered were intention to vote for a different party in the Senate (9% yes, 67% no); leaders attributes (Julia Gillard for some reason doing better than when the question was last asked in April, and Tony Abbott slightly worse); support for a long list of decisions made by the Rudd-Gillard government, the only net negative result being for the carbon tax; Tony Abbott’s intention to scrap the Gonski education reforms (32% approve, 44% disapprove); and sexism and discrimination against women.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll reverses an unusually good result for Labor last week, with the Coalition up 2.5% to 47% and Labor down the same amount to 30.5%, with the Greens unchanged at 9%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5 on preferences from the previous election, and from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent allocation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Player One:

    Your visceral reaction beautifully proves the point. It was completely stupid for the PM to play one group in society against the other.

    That is not what the role of PM is for……get it?

  2. Sean Tisme

    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed,

    Whats wrong with men in blue ties?

    You Labor losers are spinning like tops tonight
    ——————————————————

    Nobody said there was anything wrong with men in blue ties….you Libs are such soft c*cks and thin skinned you are offended with great ease.

    Again you got that mention in my earlier post

  3. Mod Lib

    Whites will “once again” be banished from political life? Explain to me first what happened in this alternate history to make whites banished from political life the first time.

  4. @Mod Lib/1301

    So why it was ok for Abbott to say women of calibre? And the speach by the PM is not?

    Biased on this blog is outstanding !

  5. Abbott:
    “I invite you to imagine it. A prime minister wearing a Pink Skirt who goes on holidays to be replaced by another Pink Skirt. A treasurer, who delivers a budget a Pink Skirt, to be supported by a finance minister another Pink Skirt. Men once again banished from the centre of Australia’s political life.”

    How is that sexist? Oh wait Gillard said it so we gotta try and spin it like she wasn’t a disgusting sexist comment.

  6. Personally I think the Coalition will struggle in government as they haven’t effectively renewed after 2007. Labor has made things too easy for them. I can’t imagine how Abbott will be even a half decent PM as he just seems too shallow. If Briefly is correct Australia is about to go through Telly tough economic times. Put all that together it’s adds up to very sobering times ahead.

    For the sake of all of us I hope I am wrong on all counts. Australia is about to come out of the post-GFC impact. The Coalition will be a good government. TAPM will be a strong leader. I don’t think there is much doubt those factors are about to be tested.

    Basically Australia is much more important than the politics.

  7. [ Let’s try and spin this like Gillard was actually making a non-sexist point! ]

    Don’t be a more idiotic than you can help, ST. It is not sexist to discuss sexism, or to point it out when it occurs.

    You people are really steamed over this speech, aren’t you?

    Focus groups telling you it has touched a nerve, perhaps?

  8. Sean Tisme

    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    Abbott:
    “I invite you to imagine it. A prime minister wearing a Pink Skirt who goes on holidays to be replaced by another Pink Skirt. A treasurer, who delivers a budget a Pink Skirt, to be supported by a finance minister another Pink Skirt. Men once again banished from the centre of Australia’s political life.”

    How is that sexist? Oh wait Gillard said it so we gotta try and spin it like she wasn’t a disgusting sexist comment.
    —————————————————–

    Look I’m not interested in your and Tony’s preferences in clothing. You and him wanna wear pink dresses – go for it…I will not judge you

  9. Ecuador’s Patino speaking on Snowden & the case for Asylum: Live Blog http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/24/edward-snowden-booked-on-plane-from-moscow-to-havana-live-coverage

    Interesting attitudes!

    Snowden, as we all know, arrived in Russia, Patino says. The Ecuadoran government has maintained respectful and diplomatic contact with Russia and has informed it Ecuador is considering Snowden’s asylum request.

    Patino says the right of asylum is recognised by the Ecuadoran constitution.

    But there are also important rules of international law we will have to evaluate, he says.

    The UN protects the right to privacy and from abuse by technology, he says.

    Every human being has the right to freedom of speech, Patino says, and this includes not being attacked for exercising one’s rights.

    He refers to the US fourth and fifth amendments on these topics.

    Ecuador’s constitution says it will guarantee the safety of people who publish opinions through the media and work in any form of communication, he says. No human being will be considered illegal because of his immigration status, Patino says. We do not do that in Ecuador.

    Patino says all the citizens in the world have been affected by the US surveillance programmes revealed by Snowden.

    In the last few days the word treason has been mentioned, he says. We have to ask who has betrayed whom?

    [

  10. Mod Lib

    Was it racist of Nelson Mandela to point out that blacks had been banished from political life in his country?

  11. One of the reasons Mandela was so respected is EXACTLY BECAUSE he did not play blacks against whites. He was inclusive and worked WITH WHITE people to achieve the ends BOTH GROUPS wanted.

    See?

  12. [Nobody said there was anything wrong with men in blue ties….you Libs are such soft c*cks and thin skinned you are offended with great ease.]

    Touchy Touchy Losey Debatey 🙂

    You know we are right, Gillard was being a sexist so and so.

  13. Sean Tisme

    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    Abbott:
    “I invite you to imagine it. A prime minister wearing a Pink Skirt who goes on holidays to be replaced by another Pink Skirt. A treasurer, who delivers a budget a Pink Skirt, to be supported by a finance minister another Pink Skirt.
    ———————————————————

    Formal dress code for IPA meetings at Menzies House???

  14. [ Your visceral reaction beautifully proves the point. It was completely stupid for the PM to play one group in society against the other. ]

    Don’t be so childish, ML. In a speech discussing sexism, of course some people – most notably the sexists – are going to be offended.

    I know you’d rather she didn’t raise this topic at all because you find it so confronting – but look where that approach has got us to in the defence forces.

  15. “I invite you to imagine it. A prime minister – an ice cream – who goes on holidays to be replaced by an ice cream. A treasurer, who delivers a budget as an ice cream, to be supported by a finance minister – another ice cream. Frozen yoghurt once again banished from the centre of Australia’s political life.”

    This is fun! We’re doing mad libs, right?

  16. Mod Lib
    A man chooses his tie, not his skin colour. If you are too dumb to understand PMJG’s address to the Women for Julia Gillard function, then be sure to read the directions for using your toaster in the morning, because working out how to operate it is obviously beyond your mental capacities.

  17. …quite interesting that the only response to my rewording Gillard’s speech by simply replacing one group with another group is personal abuse.

    I guess my point is proven in spades and perhaps a few light bulbs going on in the PB darkness! 🙂

  18. [ You know we are right, Gillard was being a sexist so and so. ]

    Can you be banned here for consistent and apparently irredeemable stupidity?

  19. Player One @1291

    [Ummm. Ever heard of a metaphor?]

    Ummmm have YOU? The statement in question was: “Men in blue ties are evil.”

    A metaphor involves one subject or object being described as another subject or object. Subjects and Objects in sentences are nouns. ‘Evil’ is an adjective. Ergo, there is no way this sentence can be considered a metaphor.

    It could however be considered as a ‘politically stupid’ phrase, if made.

    Desperation in politics has no basement.

  20. Sean Tisme@1305


    Abbott:
    “I invite you to imagine it. A prime minister wearing a Pink Skirt who goes on holidays to be replaced by another Pink Skirt. A treasurer, who delivers a budget a Pink Skirt, to be supported by a finance minister another Pink Skirt. Men once again banished from the centre of Australia’s political life.”

    How is that sexist? Oh wait Gillard said it so we gotta try and spin it like she wasn’t a disgusting sexist comment.

    Got a bit of a thing about Girls clothes there ST, you wanna tell us something ?

  21. Well QandA was as bad as I thought.

    Two things have become clear. Election Now!!!! is still with us. Must be contracts Murdoch does not like.

    Also expect social justice to go backwards at a rate of knots when the prospective AG regards equality as “tricky”

  22. [Player One
    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 10:46 pm | PERMALINK
    Your visceral reaction beautifully proves the point. It was completely stupid for the PM to play one group in society against the other.

    Don’t be so childish, ML. In a speech discussing sexism, of course some people – most notably the sexists – are going to be offended.]

    The “us” versus “them” was not us “non-sexists” versus “sexists” it was us “women” versus them “men”.

    Is this really that hard to follow?

  23. No, PMJG did not say men in blue ties are evil

    However, those particular men in their Liberal blue ties are evil.

  24. [ One of the reasons Mandela was so respected is EXACTLY BECAUSE he did not play blacks against whites. He was inclusive and worked WITH WHITE people to achieve the ends BOTH GROUPS wanted.

    See? ]

    All I see is your pathetic attempts to defend yourself by continually trying to bring racism into a debate where none exists.

    What next? Pedophilia? Bestiality? Just how low are you prepared to go?

  25. Mod Lib

    I think you should learn more about what he did to fight apartheid before he was jailed.

    In any case, you didn’t answer the question. Would it have been racist to point out genuine inequality and lack of respresentation?

  26. [Change blue ties for brtown shirts and you might get the point.]

    You have a problem with people who wear brown shirts now?! I happen to have a nice shirt in my cupboard that’s brown! But clearly you’re opposed to me wearing it! You’ve just alienated everybody who owns a shirt which is brown! 😉

  27. [Patino says all the citizens in the world have been affected by the US surveillance programmes revealed by Snowden.

    In the last few days the word treason has been mentioned, he says. We have to ask who has betrayed whom?]

    USA turning itself into a untrustworthy laughing stock of little babies out to punish those who embarrass it, but will not touch they myriad of bankster and politician crooks on their own soil.

  28. Mod Lib@1321


    …quite interesting that the only response to my rewording Gillard’s speech by simply replacing one group with another group is personal abuse.

    I guess my point is proven in spades and perhaps a few light bulbs going on in the PB darkness!

    You know, I was being facetious when I referred to you as an Idiot, yet you continue to add substance to my remark.

  29. ML

    The rest of the voting public splits into two groups. Those that have seen the speech or read it in full. Those that have relied on MSM reports.

  30. 1249

    The Senate can sit largely when the Senate likes because the Governor-General says it can. If the Government advises the Governor-General to prorogue the Senate, then the Governor General would prorogue the Senate and it could not sit.

    This is not the best state of affairs but it is what the Constitution says. The ALP should have held a referendum in 1983 (quickly to use the honeymoon period to avoid an anti-government backlash hurting the yes vote) to amend the Constitution to transfer the Governor-General`s powers of ministerial appointment and prorogation and dissolution to the HoR (with the exception of Senate prorogation, which should go to the Senate).

  31. [A metaphor involves one subject or object being described as another subject or object. ]

    In this case, “men of a conservative disposition” being described as “men in blue ties”. It’s also news to me that metaphors must refer to “subjects or objects”.

  32. Player One:

    You appear to get the point- playing the bigot card is not a good way to govern a whole country.

    It might work for a minor party that wants a minority group to vote for them and realises that they will never represent other groups.

    It doesnt work for someone who is meant to be Prime Minister for the WHOLE COUNTRY.

    ….honestly, it really aint that complicated…if you just stopped typing for a second, went for a walk and had a little think it would all make sense to you, trust me!

  33. Yesiree Bob

    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib@1321
    …quite interesting that the only response to my rewording Gillard’s speech by simply replacing one group with another group is personal abuse.

    I guess my point is proven in spades and perhaps a few light bulbs going on in the PB darkness!
    You know, I was being facetious when I referred to you as an Idiot, yet you continue to add substance to my remark.
    ———————————————-

    I’m torn between yours and Carys versions…..it will a tight vote ….

  34. [It was completely stupid for the PM to play one group in society against the other.]

    Are we back to John Howard again? Why is it that supposedly moderate Liberals just kiss the feet of this wholly un-moderate Liberal?

    It begs belief!

  35. [ A metaphor involves one subject or object being described as another subject or object. Subjects and Objects in sentences are nouns. ‘Evil’ is an adjective. Ergo, there is no way this sentence can be considered a metaphor. ]

    Are you mad?

  36. [A man chooses his tie, not his skin colour. If you are too dumb to understand PMJG’s address to the Women for Julia Gillard function]

    Oh Fark!!!

    Thats what I’ve been doing wrong in my life, wearing a BLUE tie!

    Christ almighty, I feel ashamed. Gillard really got me on my blatant blue tie sexism.

  37. If you really want to see Unhingement, try some USA political & media reactions to the Snowden affair: try http://www.washingtonpost.com http://www.huffingtonpost.com; though http://www.nyt.com believes Offering Snowden Aid, WikiLeaks Gets Back in the Game Interesting angle.

    Meanwhile, New Yorkers have discovered their funny bone: Where in the world is Edward Snowden? Russia, Cuba, Venezuela and then maybe Ecuador?

    They seek him here
    They seek him there…

  38. Well I sat through QandA …twas a mighty struggle.

    Listening to the Dim Wit Sloan barking, and Richo the insider ( I wonder who on the inside still actually has anytime for him) and George Brandis QC FW.

    Between yelling abuse at the screen I found myself somewhat enlightened by the quality and numbers of interesting tweets. After the initial swamp of get rid of her types there were more and more tweets relating to policy and achievements. And what of the alternate policies or lack of them.

    It will be an interesting couple of months I believe.

    Has anyone been in touch with ABC or QandA and found out if and when the one on one ministers are going to appear.

  39. And the usual suspects will complain about anything and everything said by Prime Minister Julia Gillard because she is a women speaking with the authority of the office of Prime Minister and that is a discord they cannot tolerate. The problem is not what the Prime Minister says, it is that it is woman’s voice saying.

    You do not fool me, fellas.

  40. [
    geoffrey @ 1250

    “men in blue ties”

    This really digs at you conservative types, doesn’t it?

    Gillard has managed to pin you all to the board with a single figure of speech which resonates with most Australians. And you simply can’t stand it, can you?
    ]

    Oh come on dude, that’s another culturally inappropriate McTurdan line. The poms love their rosettes and party colours. She’ll be bangin’ on about donkeys and elephants next.

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