The Australian’s Troy Bramston tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. However, the poll has Labor’s primary vote below 30% for the first time this year, down one to 29%, with the Coalition also down a point to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has reached a new peak of 45-33, up from 43-35 at the last poll three weeks ago, but personal ratings are little changed: Julia Gillard is steady at 28% approval and 62% disapproval, while Abbott is down one to 36% and steady at 53%.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down on a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now down to 34% with the Coalition and the Greens steady at 47% and 8%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 54-46 to 55-45. Also covered were intention to vote for a different party in the Senate (9% yes, 67% no); leaders attributes (Julia Gillard for some reason doing better than when the question was last asked in April, and Tony Abbott slightly worse); support for a long list of decisions made by the Rudd-Gillard government, the only net negative result being for the carbon tax; Tony Abbott’s intention to scrap the Gonski education reforms (32% approve, 44% disapprove); and sexism and discrimination against women.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll reverses an unusually good result for Labor last week, with the Coalition up 2.5% to 47% and Labor down the same amount to 30.5%, with the Greens unchanged at 9%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5 on preferences from the previous election, and from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent allocation.
[this may be a stupid question but can an Australian PM prorogue Parliament?]
The House of Reps yes, but not the Senate.
to go against the flow here.
but I have not seen anything of the universities spruiking the benefits of the NBN for open learning to the unis and Australia as a whole.
Would increase their enrolements greatly given most classes are on-line and need a good broadband connection to access properly.
Is it another issue the media have chosen to ignore.
[I think the Libs loss in 07 would have been greater if the Smirk had taken over.]
I assume “Smirk” is Costello.
I dunno. There is the train of thought that Costello could’ve actually drawn some of the “change of generation, not management style” appeal that Rudd had and could’ve made it much closer, even squeaked out another win.
However, there’s a high possibility that, by the time people were starting to seriously call for a change, it was too late and any leadership change would’ve just looked desperate (and that’s one thing that should be taken into consideration when it comes to making a decision on a Rudd return. Not the only thing of course, but it can be a factor.)
[this may be a stupid question but can an Australian PM prorogue Parliament?
The Tory PM in Canada Stephen Harper did this when he thought he’d lose a vote of confidence when he held only a minority govt and shut Parliament down to recess early.
Can an Aussie PM do this?]
KK did it in New South Wales for some reason I forget (electricity sell-off?).
so then all Rudd has to do if he gets back in is shut down the House of Reps and bam no no confidence motion?
[What is it with you “soft-dicks”..: ]
Joe and you want to complain about Bemused? lol
Well it’s technically up to the Governor-General to prorogue parliament, same as it’s technically up to the GG to dissolve parliament and require an election.
[However, all this is a bit academic. This outcome cannot be achieved since Rudd has promised till he’s blue in the tie that he’s not going to challenge Gillard.]
I agree. With the hard nosed, illogical attitude of the Labor power brokers I cannot see any way that it can achieved either. That’s why I have put my hard earned on JG at $1.75. I see it as a small consolation for when the party goes over the cliff on 14 September, because no-one got serious about trying to prevent it.
Considering that there’s only a week to go before a half senate election can be called and it’s in everybody’s interest (including the independents) to allow that to be on the table, I think we are safe from a no confidence motion this week.
Also, if Rudd came back, it’s probable he’d honour the September 14 date, as to delay it past that would invite huge backlash (it doesn’t matter who set that date, delaying would look desperate)
Delimiter @delimiterau 9h
Coalition hasn’t addressed basic NBN policy issues: http://bit.ly/1a5ExML
[this may be a stupid question but can an Australian PM prorogue Parliament?]
You have to be PM first.
I wonder how many times it has to be noted that Rudd must first be appointed PM (if he won some hypothetical ballot in the caucus).
Julia Gillard would be PM until she resigned. She might suggest an alternative Prime Minister in Rudd, or might not. She might make no suggestion at all and leave it up to the G-G.
Only the G-G can prorogue parliament. She does so on the advice of the PM, but if there’s no PM…. get the drift?
Tom the first and best@1121
On what basis?
Please cite the relevant caucus rules that would have been breached by not challenging or losing a challenge.
Honestly, suggestions such as this are just off the planet.
Ashley Leahy @AshleyLeahy 5h
Essential poll is pretty much unchanged Libs 55 & ALP 45. Still bad but enough time to narrow. Primary 5% higher than newspoll #auspol
[so then all Rudd has to do if he gets back in is shut down the House of Reps and bam no no confidence motion?]
Yes, but this could be considered sneaky.
And if the Greens and Coalition agree to keep the Senate sitting (perhaps in order to criticise the new Government) then the Government wouldn’t be able to stop that from happening.
1151
You are confusing prorogation with dissolution.
The GG (acting on the PM`s advice) can prorogue both houses of parliament but only dissolve the HoR.
I read a theory somewhere that Labor might be better to call an earlier election on a date that doesn’t allow a half Senate election.
The idea is that you let the punters belt Labor in the HoR, thereby venting their anger, and hold the half Senate later in the hope they’d have calmed down by then.
[Ashley Leahy @AshleyLeahy 5h
Essential poll is pretty much unchanged Libs 55 & ALP 45. Still bad but enough time to narrow. Primary 5% higher than newspoll #auspol]
If you think there is going to be a narrowing now when there hasn’t been for the last 2 years then you are delusional.
Elizabeth Windsor @Queen_UK 13h
Seriously considering moving to Ecuador. It seems to be very popular. Must be lovely. Do we own it?
Tom Hawkins@1125
Stop your projection, it is pathetic.
1164
Yes it most certainly would. The GG (on advice) can prorogue the Senate. The GG cannot however dissolve the Senate without their being a DD trigger.
Coles getting shitcanned on 4C for bangladeshi garment slavery
Four Corners on the recent factory collapse in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is the conservative’s preferred work relations environment. Were it not for the actions of workers, Labor and the unions since the 19th century that’s what it would be like here. Decent wages and conditions in Australia weren’t provided as a gift out of the goodness of business owners’ hearts. It comes down to maintaining a reasonable balance of bargaining power and workers insisting on their rights.
If the conservatives were to win and, as some are predicting, remain in power for decades, Bangladesh is the direction in which we will move. It’s a race to the bottom. Look at the USA, with its working poor, to see what it looks like along the way.
[I read a theory somewhere that Labor might be better to call an earlier election on a date that doesn’t allow a half Senate election.
The idea is that you let the punters belt Labor in the HoR, thereby venting their anger, and hold the half Senate later in the hope they’d have calmed down by then.]
That was something I actually have said in the past but, at this point, it’s best to just go for a regular election
Elections are expensive for parties and candidates to participate in; calling one this week will make a half senate election in the next year necessary. While half senate alone is allowed, it’s probable it’d be concurrent with a House election.
Bemused throws down the “gauntlet”…” For abuse you will have to try some others like joe carli and muttleymcgee.”
No worries, Bemused..I pick it up, gladly!…But look!..Its not a “gauntlet” at all, but a powdered wig!..is “Bemused” really a : “Percy O’Reilly”? (consult James Joyce’s ; “Finnegans Wake).
[Also, if Rudd came back, it’s probable he’d honour the September 14 date, as to delay it past that would invite huge backlash (it doesn’t matter who set that date, delaying would look desperate)]
I’m tipping that if Rudd does somehow manage to take over again he will go EARLIER than 14 September, not later.
[1151
You are confusing prorogation with dissolution.
The GG (acting on the PM`s advice) can prorogue both houses of parliament but only dissolve the HoR.]
Wrong. The Governor General can not prorogue the Senate. The sitting of the Senate is determined by the Senate and is not determined by the executive. The only way the executive can prorogue the Senate is by dissolving the House of Representatives in order to have an election.
[I’m tipping that if Rudd does somehow manage to take over again he will go EARLIER than 14 September, not later.]
Earlier is fine. In fact, it’s not a bad idea. It’s after that date that is a bad idea.
[1164
Yes it most certainly would. The GG (on advice) can prorogue the Senate. The GG cannot however dissolve the Senate without their being a DD trigger.]
This is wrong. You are assuming that the Senate is exactly the same as state upper houses. This is not the case. The Australian Senate, like the US Senate, is far more independent of the executive than state upper houses.
1176
The Constitution of the Commonwealth of Australia disagrees with you there and I am taking the Constitution`s side.
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Australia_Constitution_Act
Section 5.The Governor-General may appoint such times for holding the sessions of the Parliament as he thinks fit, and may also from time to time, by Proclamation or otherwise, prorogue the Parliament, and may in like manner dissolve the House of Representatives.
I’d swap 2 bemused for 1 Meguire Bob banning
[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 47s
Remember: @qanda Judith SLoan thinks we need a recession http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/2405-me-and-ms-sloan … #qanda]
Will anybody be watching?
If Rudd is in by the end of the week we will vote in early August.
I think things here will go absolutely ballistic come Thursday night.
I think replacing Howard with Costello would have made the final result closer.
Great quote from The Age
“Julia will go to her grave believing she could have won the election except for
-The world economic situation
-Poor advice from the treasury
– Men in Blue ties
-The media
-Kevin Rudd
-The relentless negativity of the opposition
-Tony Abbott
-Mysogyny
-Sexism
-Rupert Murdoch
-The big miners
-The stupidity of the electorate
-People smugglers
-Budgie smugglers
-Budget deficits
-Budgie deficits
-Peter Slipper
-Eddie Obeid
-The opinion polls
-Carbon
-Western Sydney
-Pink batts
-Tin ears
-Hung Parliaments
-her boyfriends big mouth
-Germaine Greer
And she’s probably right. In a world without any of that stuff she might have had a fighting chance.
But then again she likely would just have screwed that up as well.
“
Why Abbott wants to be like Barnett.
https://twitter.com/PeterFosterALP/status/349105553001299968/photo/1
Karma:
[iwhisperloudly @iwhisperloudly 6m
Oh, the irony! Twiggy fights bid to mine his farm http://www.smh.com.au/business/oh-the-irony-twiggy-fights-bid-to-mine-his-farm-20130225-2f0im.html … via @smh
Hardyf**kinhaha #auspol]
[1176
The Constitution of the Commonwealth of Australia disagrees with you there and I am taking the Constitution`s side.
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Australia_Constitution_Act
Section 5.The Governor-General may appoint such times for holding the sessions of the Parliament as he thinks fit, and may also from time to time, by Proclamation or otherwise, prorogue the Parliament, and may in like manner dissolve the House of Representatives.]
Exactly. Only way the G.G. can prorogue the Senate is by dissolving the House of Representatives, i.e. an election
Thanks for the link.
1136
Boerwar
[Giles is waaaay out of his depth.]
Certainly did not strike me as a smart move.
[1046
confessions
I take it from your non-reply that you accept the “blue ties” speech was both idiotic and nothing to do with Kevin Rudd.
Her blue ties speech was an ironic dig at the LOTO who isn’t permitted to choose his own ties, as well as the fact that an Abbott govt would have 2 women in Cabinet. Just two.]
The trouble is, though, confessions, whatever she may have intended by this exercise in mockery, the broadcast of her speech simply showed the PM making fun of men on account of their gender and their fashion sense (or lack of it). Most of us would have been completely taken aback had a prominent male politician set out to caricature women on account of, say, the colour of their scarves.
It is just about inexplicable that a PM, who should signify unity, dignity and equality, should descend to adolescent humour. That this followed some completely gratuitous remarks about abortion was, to many listeners, not only mystifying but also personally insulting.
In just a couple of misguided sentences, JG has effectively disqualified herself from the viewpoint of 3-in-4 males and 2-in-3 three females. It ranks as one of the most slipshod moments in the annals of idiotic remarks by loose-lipped politicians.
” Great quote from The Age…”
From who!?…From what!?…From where!?…whassthat!..can’t understand a word of what he’s saying!
At the risk of offending some on this blog here’s the latest from Robert Fisk:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/the-three-things-that-always-accompany-occupation-8670097.html
[The trouble is, though, confessions, whatever she may have intended by this exercise in mockery, the broadcast of her speech simply showed the PM making fun of men on account of their gender and their fashion sense (or lack of it). Most of us would have been completely taken aback had a prominent male politician set out to caricature women on account of, say, the colour of their scarves.
It is just about inexplicable that a PM, who should signify unity, dignity and equality, should descend to adolescent humour. That this followed some completely gratuitous remarks about abortion was, to many listeners, not only mystifying but also personally insulting.
In just a couple of misguided sentences, JG has effectively disqualified herself from the viewpoint of 3-in-4 males and 2-in-3 three females. It ranks as one of the most slipshod moments in the annals of idiotic remarks by loose-lipped politicians.]
Very good post.
That speech was unbecoming of a Prime Minister of any gender and of any part.
section 5 of the constitution is a disgrace. we need a fully revised constitution – tutelage from england indeed.
Section 5.The Governor-General may appoint such times for holding the sessions of the Parliament as he thinks fit, and may also from time to time, by Proclamation or otherwise, prorogue the Parliament, and may in like manner dissolve the House of Representatives.
this type of unfettered executive power outside of elected representatives is an absolute disgrace
Kevin and the remaining ALP MPs after the September election under the stewardship of her majesty JG..
@Gaffhook/1186
Except Barnett gov lost it’s tripple AAA.
Interestly:
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2013/s3710987.htm
ELEANOR HALL: As Treasurer, how much blame do you accept for the rising debt in this state putting the state’s AAA credit rating on a negative watch?
TROY BUSWELL: Well, I don’t think debt is something you need to take blame for. I’m actually proud of the infrastructure program that that’s debt delivered. Every single dollar that we have borrowed has been invested in infrastructure.
Yet it’s not ok for the labor parties?
[1181
confessions
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 47s
Remember: @qanda Judith SLoan thinks we need a recession http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/2405-me-and-ms-sloan … #qanda
Will anybody be watching?]
The likelihood increases every day that we are going to have a recession whether we “need” one or not.
briefly:
Isn’t it interesting that the PM’s witty, ironic observation about the LOTO’s ties ends up as an exercise in disunity and making fun of men in general, when the People’s Princess actual denigration of the clothing of a young female member of the press gallery (in front of cameras and live btw) was simply ignored.
Methinks the PM has hit upon something here. The gender bias within our media ensured that aspect of her speech dominated without context.
[That speech was unbecoming of a Prime Minister of any gender and of any part.]
Any PARTY.
[The likelihood increases every day that we are going to have a recession whether we “need” one or not.]
Why do you say this, btw? You do seem rather pessimistic lately.