The electorate of Canberra covers the southern half of the national capital together with the bulk of the Australian Capital Territory’s thinly populated remainder, with northern Canberra accommodated by the seat of Fraser. Both seats were created when the territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974. The Australian Capital Territory had been a single electorate since the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its member only obtained full voting rights in 1968. A third electorate of Namadgi was created for the 1996 election, accommodating Tuggeranong and its surrounds in Canberra’s far south and pushing the Canberra electorate north of the lake to include the city’s centre and inner north. However, the previous order was reinstated when the seat entitlement to slipped back to two at the 1998 election, in large part due to Howard government cutbacks to the federal public service. The two ACT electorates presently have enrolment of around 130,000 voters each, compared with a national average of around 96,000.
The Australian Capital Territory electorate was won by an independent at its first election in 1949, but was held by Labor after 1951. Kep Enderby came to the seat at a 1970 by-election and carried over to Canberra in 1974, serving as Lionel Murphy’s successor as Attorney-General in 1975. He was then dumped by a 10.4% swing to the Liberals at the December 1975 election, and for the next two terms the seat was held for the Liberals by John Haslem. The seat’s natural Labor inclination finally reasserted itself in 1980 with the election of Ros Kelly, who served in the Hawke-Keating ministries from 1987 until she fell victim to the still notorious “sports rorts” affair in 1994. Kelly’s indulgent departure from parliament a year later was followed by a disastrous by-election result for Labor, with Liberal candidate Brendan Smyth gaining the seat off a 16.2% swing.
Smyth unsuccessfully contested the new seat of Namadgi at the 1996 election, and Canberra was won easily for Labor by Bob McMullan, who had served the ACT as a Senator since 1988. The reassertion of the old boundaries in 1998 caused McMullan to move to Fraser, the Labor margin in the redrawn Canberra being 5.1% lower than the one he secured in 1996. Canberra went to Annette Ellis, who had entered parliament as the member for Namadgi in 1996, while Fraser MP Steve Darvagel agreed to go quietly after a brief parliamentary career which began when he succeeded John Langmore at a by-election in February 1997. Ellis added 7.2% to an existing 2.3% margin at the 1998 election, and held the seat safely thereafter.
In February 2010, both Ellis and McMullan announced they would not contest the election due later that year. Large fields of preselection contestants emerged for both seats, with the front-runner in Canberra initially thought to be Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr and a former adviser to opposition leaders Mark Latham and Kim Beazley. However, Cooney shortly withdrew amid suggestions Kevin Rudd was ready to use national executive intervention to block him. The eventual winner was Gai Brodtmann, a former DFAT public servant who had established a local communications consultancy with her husband, senior ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Together with Andrew Leigh’s win in Fraser, Brodtmann’s win was seen as a rebuff to local factional powerbrokers who had pursued a deal in which the Left would support Mary Wood, adviser to Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek and member of the Centre Coalition (Right), and the Right would back the Nick Martin, the party’s assistant national secretary and a member of the Left, in Fraser. However, Brodtmann was able to build a cross-factional support base of sufficient breadth to prevail over Wood by 123 votes to 109.
The Liberal candidate for the coming election is Tom Sefton, a Commonwealth public servant who has served in Afghanistan as a commando officer. Sefton polled a respectable 4.2% as a candidate for Molonglo at the October 2012 Australian Capital Territory election.
sprocket:
Check the dates.
thank you, the comedian PvO got me…
Comrades, it’s a trick.
Van Onselen is taking the piss by retweeting News Poll results from last October.
Kevin Bonham –
I really don’t count comparing one poll to another. Calibration comes via elections.
In terms of the elections mentioned – I still don’t recall the Queensland state election being properly analysed for Reachtel’s accuracy, and in particular Reachtel’s latest “thing” which is all the seat based polling results. They quote MOEs for these so it’s reasonable to ask if their seat estimates were accurate in the same way their state or national vote estimates were.
By-elections are always sources of bizarre results. I’m not sure what it means to get these right – the major established polls rarely get byelections particularly “right” as far as I’m aware, and obviously the Sydney by-election wasn’t called right as you note.
Anyway, you can be happy that Reachtel have “earnt their stripes” but I disagree until they’ve been proven against a general election that I can see the ‘before’ and ‘after’ results from them.
My concerns about Reachtel as I’ve stated before are:
* landline only
* robopoll
* short sampling periods (if you do a poll in a couple of hours then there will necessarily be time-of-day and day-of-week biases)
Combined with the fact that Reachtel really don’t have the history (regardless of the samples you mention) to be able to compensate for any effects from the above or other issues with their method, where Newspoll et al have a lot of comparison points over time to be able to analyse and correct for errors creeping in over time.
You don’t consider suspicion of robopolls valid. Ok. I’ll be suspicious without your tick of approval.
I don’t see how a negative reaction from people to being robocalled cannot have some effect.
[ClothesOff@1631: as I have said before, you sure as hell are one dimwitted sort of MOFO.
You only pop up on here when the prospect of Ruddstoration rears its ugly head. So we know where you stand.
I note that you advised another poster that they should keep their posts short and make sure that they were full of content.
Well, I must agree that your posts are generally short…………..]
WOW GOOD COME BACK MATE!
YOU REALLY GOT ME THAT TIME!
[Joe Hockey @JoeHockey 2m
Swan DPM describes this Parliament “as one of the most successful in a generation-582 pieces of legislation”. Lets celebrate BIGGER GOVT.!
Bernard Keane @BernardKeane 7s
.@JoeHockey celebrate indeed with a Soviet-style “Direct Action” climate scheme and massive regional development program for the north.]
Hockey is just a bumbling fool.
Having got over the time warp, you all have your razor blades ready?
…thank you Smaug.
that’s it then, if mod lib is agin her, Gillard is th’go !
‘she just won’t go away….’
‘she just won’t go away….’
‘she just won’t lie down…..
…. and go away !’
Fort Dundas Fort Wellington Port Essington…
The deep north continues to suck in the dreamers and then to trash them…
All that empty space, water, soil…
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 28 Oct
#Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 36 (+3) L/NP 41 (-4) GRN 10 (0) #auspol]
The newspoll they wouldn’t publish must’ve been even better – a week or frenzied media destablisation and we’re back to 55-45. The other poll was a rogue and Labor is still stuffed, but it’s better news that News Ltd wanted to have this week.
Ducky:
Razor blades are so Trainspotting.
Gimme a nice glass of dry white any day of the week. 🙂
Psephos @ 1626….
Crean is out of the question. For mine, if his family can be persuaded to support it…
Stephen Smith
Or, perhaps just as likely, anyone willing to be drafted. This is the toughest job in politics since WW2. The next leader will have about 100 days to bury the politics of contempt, betrayal and revenge, and put the interests of the public back at the centre of political life. If this is done, Labor might just win.
To complete this, both KR and JG should be directed not to re-contest their seats. Wayne Swan should also be replaced as DPM and Treasurer.
Unless the party does this, the public will do it instead. If Labor wish to fight the election as a unified force and with a clean scorecard, they have no choice but to settle these tensions. Of course, it is not without some risk. But it compares favourably with the alternatives. Choosing either JG or KR involves no risk at all – merely the certainty of obliteration.
The Liberal Party room failed miserably to exercise its responsibility to deal with Howard and were defeated as a result. If the caucus now fails to exercise its obligations, then surely the voters will exercise their own discretion.
Stephen has made many very difficult decisions in his career. He will know what to do.
Bob Ellis agrees with me that Rupert should be arrested for fraud.
Given that his record in predicting elections is thirty-four elections right within three seats, and nine dead wrong.
[This means, of course ‒ how could it not ‒ that the Labor-Green vote is underestimated by 2.5 or 3 per cent by this methodology – of ringing only crocks and oldies, plus 1.5 or 2 per cent through misallocated Katter and Palmer preferences (few will go to the party of Newman, who is comprehensively hated by these rebel provincials) – puts the non-Coalition vote, two-party preferred, at about 52.5, where it has been for a year or so.
This is a tremendous Murdoch fraud, augmented month after month as landlines are progressively discarded by the young, or progressively not used, and more and more young people come onto the rolls, and more and more codgers Rupert’s age die.
What has happened – the suppression of actual figures and their replacement with false figures – is almost certainly criminal and arrests should follow.
Will Gillard be overthrown this week? No. Will Rudd move? I don’t think so. I will be down there, doing hourly bulletins anyway.]
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/the-australian-and-its-dodgy-skewpoll/
[To complete this, both KR and JG should be directed not to re-contest their seats. Wayne Swan should also be replaced as DPM and Treasurer.]
If Rudd doesn’t run, Labor probably won’t win any seats in QLD.
But you don’t really care about that. You have the same Gillardista Cult delusion that politics isn’t about trying to win elections.
[This little black duck
Posted Sunday, June 23, 2013 at 8:12 pm | Permalink
Darn,
I have a nice line in cloth ears available for your inspection.]
Ducky, I’m afraid you’ll have to translate that one for me.
sucked in!
[Bob Ellis agrees with me…]
Clearly Gaffhook’s posts aren’t worth reading.
[Crean is out of the question.]
Considering his unpopularity last time he was leader and definitely taking into account that complete blunder in March, I don’t think he should be let anywhere near the leadership, TBH.
fess,
A Gallows Semillon Sauvignon Blanc 2011 do you?
Why not make Jason Clare PM? He’s about to lose his seat anyway.
Steve Smith would be a better choice though. He’ll probably lose his seat too, but making him PM for a few weeks would be a good reward for years of great service.
Darn,
If you insist:
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/british/cloth-eared
[
A Clare-Plibersek ticket, with Combet for Treasurer, would be a game-changer, to be sure.
a bit NSW centric]
That’s where Labor needs to recover the most ground. We’re on track to lose 15 seats there at present. If we need to throw Qld a bone, Emerson could be Treasurer. Vic will rally to anyone who can stop Abbott.
[To complete this, both KR and JG should be directed not to re-contest their seats. ]
Why should the PM not contest her seat? She’s just taken on the toughest job imaginable, and prevailed (Labor’s legislative agenda implemented, warded off the most abusive period in living memory when it comes to her personally).
Not only has she earned the right to contest her seat, but to contest the next election as Prime Minister.
sprocket
You are not alone a quite a few people are falling for the out of date GWV tweets.
Meanwhile apparently Chris Kenny hinting a Twenty for ALp primary for what that is worth
[1665
ShowsOn
To complete this, both KR and JG should be directed not to re-contest their seats. Wayne Swan should also be replaced as DPM and Treasurer.
If Rudd doesn’t run, Labor probably won’t win any seats in QLD.
But you don’t really care about that. You have the same Gillardista Cult delusion that politics isn’t about trying to win elections.]
S-O, the public absolutely will not elect someone with a proven incapacity to fulfill the duties of PM, and nor will the caucus choose such a person. Rudd exercises fascination over some, but he is demonstrably unfit for the office. He would carry Labor to defeat. Few things are more certain than that.
Toorak Toff – it’s not all that long ago that a sitting PM lost their seat – what a wonderful night that was 😉
Emerson could be treasurer if we want less people to listen to the government. He moves but I’m not sure he’s alive. MOst of the time when he speaks people around me fall asleep.
confessions…only on the principle that former leaders are best out of politics.
[A Gallows Semillon Sauvignon Blanc 2011 do you?]
Actually I’d prefer something a little more lively to be honest. 🙂
I say Fantasy Labor Leader is being played again. While you are at it do Greens and LNP.
eg Cate Faerhman to replace Senator Milne
Thanks Ducky. The problem for me at the moment is that I am extremely busy on something else and am only reading PB in short sharp grabs, so if there was something said previously that would shed some light on what I asked, feel free to help out by referring me to it.
[S-O, the public absolutely will not elect someone with a proven incapacity to fulfill the duties of PM]
What an idiotic comment! How did Rudd become PM in the first place!? He was the Opposition leader who most Australians voted into office as PM!
[and nor will the caucus choose such a person.]
And if they do, you are going to look like a big moron aren’t you?
[Rudd exercises fascination over some, but he is demonstrably unfit for the office. He would carry Labor to defeat. Few things are more certain than that.]
He would do a lot bloody better than Julia Gillard would! You only have to talk to a few people out in the actual world to learn that pretty quickly.
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 15m
That was the last mischievous retweet, promise.]
Surely Mumble is being his usual self.
[Emerson could be treasurer if we want less people to listen to the government. He moves but I’m not sure he’s alive. MOst of the time when he speaks people around me fall asleep.]
I don’t think he could do worse than Swan at communicating the Government’s accomplishments. In fact I think he would do better than Swan.
briefly:
I don’t accept the premise that a leadership change is the best thing for the govt, for the reasons I’ve outlined previously.
On that basis, the PM is not a ‘former leader’, but very much a current leader.
Reports (don’t quote me): Labor primary 2X.
There’s been some talk about how numbers would have to be tested in the House of Reps etc if Rudd were to return to the Labor leadership.
Flash back to the 1975 ccnstitutional coup. Whitlam easily won a confidence vote in the House of Reps but was nevertheless replaced as PM by the bloke who came second!
Guytaur – I know you were joking but the Greens switching away from Christine wouldn’t be a bad thing. Time for generational change – won’t be until after the election though
Darn,
You must have missed the comments by briefly and Psephos.
[1674
confessions
She’s just taken on the toughest job imaginable, and prevailed (Labor’s legislative agenda implemented, warded off the most abusive period in living memory when it comes to her personally).
Not only has she earned the right to contest her seat, but to contest the next election as Prime Minister.]
She faces a calamitous though possibly glorious defeat, confessions….sad but true.
A rumour at 21:15 counts for nothing.
[I say Fantasy Labor Leader is being played again. While you are at it do Greens and LNP.]
I doubt anyone can save the Greens. Ludlam is a loony despite his mild manners. Hanson-Young is the most annoying person ever elected to Parliament. Rhiannon is… well we know what she is. Waters and Wright haven’t made much impact.
As for the Libs, they only have three possible alternatives to Abbott – Turnbull, Bishop and Morrison. Hockey is a fool and the rest are nobodies. Turnbull is of course the most popular, but is not acceptable to the backbench. Bishop has made some howlers but I think she is under-rated. Morrison is divisive, although he done the job he was given to do, and done it very well. I think he’d be front-runner if Abbott fell over.
briefly,
Why won’t Labor win? If you can’t go past “leadershit” and “polls” don’t bother.
[1686
confessions
briefly:
I don’t accept the premise that a leadership change is the best thing for the govt, for the reasons I’ve outlined previously.]
I know. I respect this entirely. However, I suspect events are moving, whether we like it or not.
Showson, Rudd became PM because he was a JH clone – he didn’t scare the horses and the public wanted to toss the Libs out.
You honestly think the ALP will get peace from the MSM if he became leader again how delusional are you – everything from early 2012 would be bought out.
He is not the saviour!
mod lib
i think australians like back room politics – julia is too hard, from union origins. so is abbot and they dont really like him. as you list too many mistakes – false announcements – the paper work should all be done. mind you rudd was no fait accompli soul, but then he was claiming to be a new deal for old labor
briefly:
Better that than the party changing leaders (YET AGAIN!) and heading into certain defeat whereby the leadership changes makes it look as though it has walked away from everything it legislated for this term.
They tried that once already, and look how that turned out.
Sky News reporting Newspoll ALP primary has a 2 in front of it, in other words, sub 30 percent.
it is staggering that anyone here could blame rudd for poor performance of government. if government did right thing in 2010 and was on target since rudd would have been forgotten long ago. it is amazing three years on to the day that he has any influence – bit more going on