Tasmanian and federal leadership polling

Polling on federal voting intention in Tasmania is, once again, not good for Labor. Also featured: Seat of the Week, starring the once-safe Labor western Sydney electorate of Blaxland.

UPDATE (Saturday evening): GhostWhoVotes reports the Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition leading 55-45, compared with 54-46 in Galaxy’s previous poll. Primary votes are 32% for Labor (down two), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Under a Kevin Rudd leadership scenario, the primary votes are 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with two-party preferred at 50-50. Nonetheless, only 34% said Gillard should make way for Rudd with 52% opposed (32-60 among Labor and 33-51 among Coalition supporters). Full results here.

Some bonus late-week polling to keep you going over the weekend:

• ReachTEL polling conducted for the Hobart Mercury points to a Labor wipeout in Tasmania and a comfortable win for Andrew Wilkie in Denison. After exclusion of the 6.8% undecided, the statewide primary votes are 48.8% for the Liberals, 28.2% for Labor and 11.3% for the Greens, suggesting a Liberal two-party lead of around 56-44 and a swing of 16% compared with the last election. The poll was conducted on Thursday night from samples of around 550 respondents per electorate for a statewide total of 2620, which probably makes it the most comprehensive Tasmanian poll ever conducted. Results by electorate (I have allocated the undecided components listed in the published primary votes in each case):

Denison: Andrew Wilkie 38.8%; Liberal 27.9%; Labor 21.3%; Greens 9.6%. The respective results at the 2010 election were 21.3%, 22.6%, 35.8% and 19.0%. Wilkie defeated Labor by 1.2% after preferences, but the published results suggest Labor would finish third behind the Liberals with their preferences securing a very easy win for Wilkie.

Franklin: Labor 38.4%; Liberal 47.1%; Greens 10.7%. The Liberals lead 51.0-49.0 after preferences, a swing of 11.8%.

Bass: Labor 25.5%; Liberal 56.9%; Greens 14.1%. The Liberals lead 61-39 after preferences, a swing of 17.7%.

Braddon: Labor 28.5%; Liberal 57.6%; Greens 7.6%. The Liberals lead 62.2-37.8 after preferences, a swing of 19.7%.

Lyons: Labor 27.5%; Liberal 54.1%; Greens 14.1%. The Liberals lead 59.0-41.0 after preferences, a swing of 22.5%.

• Another ReachTEL poll, this time targeting 1600 respondents in 11 seats in western Sydney on behalf of the Seven Network, inquired about Kevin Rudd’s popularity relative to Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott. Abbott led 64-36 over Gillard and 51-48 over Rudd, with enthusiasm for Rudd appearing to have cooled a little since ReachTEL conducted the same exercise three months ago. On that occasion, 42% said the return of Rudd would make them more likely to vote Labor against 25% for less likely. This time, the results were 36% and 31%.

• Roy Morgan has published a phone poll from a small sample of 475 respondents dealing mostly with party leadership, but also including voting intention results. The poll has the Coalition leading 59-41 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 26% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens, remembering that the margin of error here is 4.5%. Further evidence of a Coalition-skewed sample came with a 47-35 lead for Tony Abbott over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, and a 27-65 approval/disapproval split for Gillard against 41-51 for Abbott. The poll also offered detailed material on preferred Labor and Liberal leader. Kevin Rudd led for Labor with 33% support against 14% for Julia Gillard, 11% for Bill Shorten and 10% for Stephen Smith. Tony Abbott did similarly poorly for preferred Liberal leader, finishing third with 18% behind Malcolm Turnbull on 47% and Joe Hockey on 19%.

• Roy Morgan has also scoured through two years of its polling to provide the “top 10 professions more likely to vote for each party”. This shows Labor’s base remains resolutely blue-collar, with the “new class” professions dominating the Greens list. Defence force members topped the Liberal list with police in sixth place, managers and finance industry types also featuring prominently.

Seat of the week: Blaxland

The western Sydney seat of Blaxland has been held by Labor without interruption since its creation in 1949, and provided Paul Keating with a seat throughout a parliamentary career lasting from 1969 to 1996. The electorate currently extends from Bankstown in the south through Bass Hill and Regents Park to Guildford in the north. The area is marked by a strong Arabic presence, especially around Guildford, together with a large Turkish community around Auburn and concentrations of Chinese and Vietnamese at Fairfield East and Regents Park. The two strongest areas for the Liberals, Woodpark and Guildford West in the electorate’s north-western corner and Bass Hill and Georges Hall in the south, are middle-income and contain the highest proportion of English speakers. The abolition of a neighbouring electorate to the north caused the electorate to be substantially redrawn at the 2010 election, adding 24,000 of the abolished electorate’s voters around Auburn South together with 14,000 at Bankstown in the south (which had been removed from the electorate in the 2007 redistribution). Transferred out of the electorate were 20,000 voters around Cabramatta to the west and 18,000 around Greenacre to the south.

Blaxland’s greatest moment of electoral interest came with its inauguration at the 1949 election, when Jack Lang attempted to move to the new seat after winning Reid as a Labor renegade in 1946. He failed, and the seat has since been won for Labor by margins of never less than 8.8%. James Harrison held the seat for the 20 years before the arrival of Paul Keating, who was succeeded at a 1996 by-election by Michael Hatton. Hatton’s career proved rather less illustrious than his predecessor’s, and he was dumped by the party’s national executive ahead of the 2007 election. The ensuing preselection was won by the Right-backed Jason Clare, a Transburban executive and former advisor to NSW Premier Bob Carr, who prevailed over constitutional law expert George Williams and Bankstown mayor Tania Mihailuk. Clare suffered what by Sydney standards was a modest 4.4% swing at the 2010 election, reducing the margin to 12.2%, but the electorate’s five corresponding state seats swung by between 13.8% and 20.3% at the state election the following March, with Granville and East Hills falling to the Liberals and Bankstown, Auburn and Fairfield remaining with Labor.

Jason Clare won promotion to parliamentary secretary in 2009, and then to the outer ministry after the 2010 election in the defence materiel portfolio. He shifted to home affairs and justice in December 2011, further recovering defence materiel after Kevin Rudd’s failed leadership bid the following February. He was promoted to cabinet as cabinet secretary in the February 2013 reshuffle which followed the retirement announcements of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans, again trading in defence materiel while maintaining home affairs and justice. His Liberal opponent is Anthony Khouri, a local businessman of Lebanese extraction who together with his brothers founded custom-made luxury car manufacturer Bufori. ReachTEL has twice conducted automated phone polls showing Khouri in the lead, by 54-46 in March and 52-48 in June.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,824 comments on “Tasmanian and federal leadership polling”

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  1. Sorry if this has already been noted.
    2 more sexist comments about the PM from right wingers in the media today.
    One on ABC Radio national “Outsiders” about Gillard showing cleavage and the other on ABC TV ‘The Insiders” [how balanced] from Piers Ackerman, something to do with Sattler.

    I cannot believe the arrogance and lack of ethics of these people.

  5. When the country is being run by a group of people who can’t run on their record or on their policies the media will turn its attention to running stupid stories of no national significance.

  7. aundiced view
    Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 8:35 pm | PERMALINK
    Something tells me the next two weeks will be politically interesting beyond the norm. I also suspect that the period after that before the election will be much more interesting than normal.

    Yes

  8. aundiced view
    Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 8:35 pm | PERMALINK
    Something tells me the next two weeks will be politically interesting beyond the norm. I also suspect that the period after that before the election will be much more interesting than normal.

    Yes

  9. [When the country is being run by a group of people who can’t run on their record or on their policies]

    given Gillard and Rudd have a fantastic record and very strong policy you must be talking Abbott who can’t keep his own lines straight thru a whole interview.

  10. Yes abbot is a debaucher of language and debate

    thank goodness we will soon have a chance to vote out of office

  11. Leon Uris may have been Jewish but he wrote for a Christian audience, faltering under the burden of being less-than-Christian during WWII, in the aftermath of WWII.

    His airport best-sellers convinced a worldwide audience of the reason for the UN 1948 Jewish settlement of Palestine and the displacement of those horrid Arabs.

    The Haj, was a follow up novel, ostensibly from the point of view of Palestinians, that only served to showcase the now well-ingrained inhumanity sterotype of the non-Jews.

    Leon Uris should feel the weight of history on his shoulders. Yes, he portrayed a living sorrow for his people, but he also made another people live the sorrow that he so despised.

  14. gary sparrow

    the abortion issue was a fatal error for julia – anyone with judgment would hold that against her. unforgivable politically

  15. [Ha then why raise abortion as an issue]

    Because Abbott has a record of misusing power to disempower women, it is a real and fair concern she has raised. Even Abbott’s evil weasel words were a warning sign, he didn’t say ‘we’d never ever’ do that, and he lies every second sentence he merely said ‘it isn’t something we are currently considering’. Given his attention span and honesty lasts about three minutes anyone who considers abortion a matter of choice for the female concerned who should not be criminalised by her choice should be very very afraid.

  17. [ Gary Sparrow
    Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

    Ha then why raise abortion as an issue, if they have a good record to run on?]

    Perhaps because if sanity doesn’t return soon we are going to have a religious nutter as PM.

  18. [gary sparrow

    the abortion issue was a fatal error for julia – anyone with judgment would hold that against her. unforgivable politically]

    Only a complete and utter fool would think it anything but wise words.

  19. [Huh? Does your boss say Judaism isn’t a monotheistic Christian religion? And you swallowed?]

    Judaism is a monotheist religion but not a Christian one. Do I really have to explain this to you?

  20. Speaking of utter fools, anyone who thinks Abbott as PM will move to a sensible intelligent centre position, for his perch on the maniac right is in for a disappointing time.

    I’m in for a very bad time, just not disappointing.

  21. [When the country is being run by a group of people who can’t run on their record or on their policies the media will turn its attention to running stupid stories of no national significance.]

    Pretty much. The Member for Griffith knew exactly what he was doing when he began his whiteanting, destabilising campaign against the ALP and its leadership.

    As others have noted, he has been the best friend the Abbott Liberals have had.

    If he doesn’t resign from the parliament following the election, Labor should take whatever steps it can to have him removed from the party.

  25. Fess, your chums have white anted Rudd since before he became leader and continue to this day.

    They used him up and spat him out.

  26. Psephos

    Very hard to tell the difference unless one is in Melbourne Ports. It’s the meaningless details that cause the wars.

  27. [Radguy
    Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

    Fess, your chums have white anted Rudd since before he became leader and continue to this day.

    They used him up and spat him out.]

    Rudd is an egomaniac, he will survive.

  28. we want paul

    i repeat it was a cheap trick to politicise not even in a campaign abortion. all governments tread carefully – this has never been exploited or featured in bipartisan argument – until now. i am tired of julia gillard exploiting every good cause including feminism in her desperate lonely dishonest cling to power. the discourse is not about sexism it is about her. time to go

  29. [Fess, your chums have white anted Rudd since before he became leader and continue to this day.

    They used him up and spat him out.]

    *laughs hysterically*

    Yeah right.

    Whatever.

  31. [The Member for Griffith knew exactly what he was doing when he began his whiteanting, destabilising campaign against the ALP and its leadership.]
    I disagree. Kevin wants, above all, to be universally liked. He saw his sacking not as an affront but as a challenge to himself to make the caucus members like him. As a lad of considerable nous, he saw the best way to achieve that was to make them dislike Julia Gillard

  32. A thought for Rudd

    Εκλιπαρώ δεν μαεστρία σε όλους,
    Για τη μαεστρία που έθεσε σου ήταν σου όλεθρος και σφυρήλατο πτώση σου.

  33. Anyway can I just throw in that this has been the best weekend in Byron Bay since a few weeks ago? Back to work tomorrow, but 22 degrees in the ocean for the swims, and sunburn today on the deck of the surf club. *personal rant over*

  37. JV

    “Very hard to tell the difference unless one is in Melbourne Ports. It’s the meaningless details that cause the wars.”

    Calling Judaism a ‘Christian religion’ is a little more than a trivial mistake. And there are innumerable differences.

  38. No because the distinction is elusive, but:
    [“The New Testamant reports that Jews were the first to persecute Christians, and after Christians became the more powerful group, they frequently persecuted Jews.”]

    Isn’t religion wonderful?

  39. I am extremely grateful to Ackerman for giving me the best guffaw of the year. He says, ‘I don’t deal in tawdry topics.’

  42. [Gary Sparrow
    Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 8:57 pm | PERMALINK
    When the country is being run by a group of people who can’t run on their record or on their policies the media will turn its attention to running stupid stories of no national significance.]

    The ALP has a proud record of government. That the message fails to get through is a product of Murdoch.

    If you don’t believe me, then you should know Murdoch runs interference in democracies everywhere he goes. In the UK, his paper declared that they were “WOT WON IT”.

    Last year, while Murdoch’s papers and Fox TV channels were constantly claiming victory for the Republicans, even up to the 11th hour, it was only Anonymous that saved it.

    You think that Rupert doesn’t want the Coalition to win this year?

    Check out the division of his empire.

    Apparently, NewsCorp is taking over the PayTV & TV & Movies division, and NewsLtd will be left with the newspapers.

    Except in Australia. Here, NewsLtd will be left with newspapers AND PayTV. Why?

    Because if the Coalition or Rudd is returned to the ALP leadership, Murdoch will be guaranteed a stranglehold on network and internet TV.

    Gillard is the only thing stopping him.

    Think about it. A lot.

    Do you want everything, but everything, through a Murdoch filter? I don’t.

  45. rummel

    I think it was you who predicted a 35/65 Newspoll after The Great Chicken Kev Pseudo-Challenge. Hope this one brings your average up, mate.

  46. Ducky:

    The Member for Griffith has shown a calculating ruthlessness in his planning to undermine the current leadership.

    Boerwar and I picked it way back nearly 3 years ago when we were all watching his first Qanda solo after the election. He knew exactly what he was doing.

    The one who is desperate to be liked is the LOTO. He ingratiates himself to almost everyone he thinks can benefit him, whatever the cost to his reputation. Bowing before Gina, kneeling in front of Rupe (or whoever it was), saying ‘shit happens’ to commanders explaining how lives are lost at war. Right to the point where he chooses speechlessness lest he says something people don’t like.

  48. To continue before whatever it was decided to post that.

    He had a strategy which has gone under the radar and tactics which are obvious.

    His problem is that insufficient of his caucus colleagues don’t buy it.

    The last thing he wants is to be rejected by his electorate, which is why he can’t rubbish JGPM too much.

    He will be a net benefit to Labor, come the election.

    The journos are just talking amonst themselves, drooling and wetting their pants.

    I doubt they even realize that it’s Julia Gillard v Rupert Murdoch. They are dross, just dross.

  50. frednk

    The asylum seeker matter will be the issue on the headstone of the Gillard government. To concede to racists and to the LNP; to fail to be a bastion against populism; to give the xenophobes the high ground, is to make Gillard the cheapest Labor PM in my memory. She and the Short-Cons are giving Abbott carte blanche. Unforgiveable.

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