UPDATE (Saturday evening): GhostWhoVotes reports the Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition leading 55-45, compared with 54-46 in Galaxy’s previous poll. Primary votes are 32% for Labor (down two), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Under a Kevin Rudd leadership scenario, the primary votes are 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with two-party preferred at 50-50. Nonetheless, only 34% said Gillard should make way for Rudd with 52% opposed (32-60 among Labor and 33-51 among Coalition supporters). Full results here.
Some bonus late-week polling to keep you going over the weekend:
• ReachTEL polling conducted for the Hobart Mercury points to a Labor wipeout in Tasmania and a comfortable win for Andrew Wilkie in Denison. After exclusion of the 6.8% undecided, the statewide primary votes are 48.8% for the Liberals, 28.2% for Labor and 11.3% for the Greens, suggesting a Liberal two-party lead of around 56-44 and a swing of 16% compared with the last election. The poll was conducted on Thursday night from samples of around 550 respondents per electorate for a statewide total of 2620, which probably makes it the most comprehensive Tasmanian poll ever conducted. Results by electorate (I have allocated the undecided components listed in the published primary votes in each case):
Denison: Andrew Wilkie 38.8%; Liberal 27.9%; Labor 21.3%; Greens 9.6%. The respective results at the 2010 election were 21.3%, 22.6%, 35.8% and 19.0%. Wilkie defeated Labor by 1.2% after preferences, but the published results suggest Labor would finish third behind the Liberals with their preferences securing a very easy win for Wilkie.
Franklin: Labor 38.4%; Liberal 47.1%; Greens 10.7%. The Liberals lead 51.0-49.0 after preferences, a swing of 11.8%.
Bass: Labor 25.5%; Liberal 56.9%; Greens 14.1%. The Liberals lead 61-39 after preferences, a swing of 17.7%.
Braddon: Labor 28.5%; Liberal 57.6%; Greens 7.6%. The Liberals lead 62.2-37.8 after preferences, a swing of 19.7%.
Lyons: Labor 27.5%; Liberal 54.1%; Greens 14.1%. The Liberals lead 59.0-41.0 after preferences, a swing of 22.5%.
• Another ReachTEL poll, this time targeting 1600 respondents in 11 seats in western Sydney on behalf of the Seven Network, inquired about Kevin Rudd’s popularity relative to Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott. Abbott led 64-36 over Gillard and 51-48 over Rudd, with enthusiasm for Rudd appearing to have cooled a little since ReachTEL conducted the same exercise three months ago. On that occasion, 42% said the return of Rudd would make them more likely to vote Labor against 25% for less likely. This time, the results were 36% and 31%.
• Roy Morgan has published a phone poll from a small sample of 475 respondents dealing mostly with party leadership, but also including voting intention results. The poll has the Coalition leading 59-41 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 26% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens, remembering that the margin of error here is 4.5%. Further evidence of a Coalition-skewed sample came with a 47-35 lead for Tony Abbott over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, and a 27-65 approval/disapproval split for Gillard against 41-51 for Abbott. The poll also offered detailed material on preferred Labor and Liberal leader. Kevin Rudd led for Labor with 33% support against 14% for Julia Gillard, 11% for Bill Shorten and 10% for Stephen Smith. Tony Abbott did similarly poorly for preferred Liberal leader, finishing third with 18% behind Malcolm Turnbull on 47% and Joe Hockey on 19%.
• Roy Morgan has also scoured through two years of its polling to provide the “top 10 professions more likely to vote for each party”. This shows Labor’s base remains resolutely blue-collar, with the “new class” professions dominating the Greens list. Defence force members topped the Liberal list with police in sixth place, managers and finance industry types also featuring prominently.
Seat of the week: Blaxland
The western Sydney seat of Blaxland has been held by Labor without interruption since its creation in 1949, and provided Paul Keating with a seat throughout a parliamentary career lasting from 1969 to 1996. The electorate currently extends from Bankstown in the south through Bass Hill and Regents Park to Guildford in the north. The area is marked by a strong Arabic presence, especially around Guildford, together with a large Turkish community around Auburn and concentrations of Chinese and Vietnamese at Fairfield East and Regents Park. The two strongest areas for the Liberals, Woodpark and Guildford West in the electorate’s north-western corner and Bass Hill and Georges Hall in the south, are middle-income and contain the highest proportion of English speakers. The abolition of a neighbouring electorate to the north caused the electorate to be substantially redrawn at the 2010 election, adding 24,000 of the abolished electorate’s voters around Auburn South together with 14,000 at Bankstown in the south (which had been removed from the electorate in the 2007 redistribution). Transferred out of the electorate were 20,000 voters around Cabramatta to the west and 18,000 around Greenacre to the south.
Blaxland’s greatest moment of electoral interest came with its inauguration at the 1949 election, when Jack Lang attempted to move to the new seat after winning Reid as a Labor renegade in 1946. He failed, and the seat has since been won for Labor by margins of never less than 8.8%. James Harrison held the seat for the 20 years before the arrival of Paul Keating, who was succeeded at a 1996 by-election by Michael Hatton. Hatton’s career proved rather less illustrious than his predecessor’s, and he was dumped by the party’s national executive ahead of the 2007 election. The ensuing preselection was won by the Right-backed Jason Clare, a Transburban executive and former advisor to NSW Premier Bob Carr, who prevailed over constitutional law expert George Williams and Bankstown mayor Tania Mihailuk. Clare suffered what by Sydney standards was a modest 4.4% swing at the 2010 election, reducing the margin to 12.2%, but the electorate’s five corresponding state seats swung by between 13.8% and 20.3% at the state election the following March, with Granville and East Hills falling to the Liberals and Bankstown, Auburn and Fairfield remaining with Labor.
Jason Clare won promotion to parliamentary secretary in 2009, and then to the outer ministry after the 2010 election in the defence materiel portfolio. He shifted to home affairs and justice in December 2011, further recovering defence materiel after Kevin Rudd’s failed leadership bid the following February. He was promoted to cabinet as cabinet secretary in the February 2013 reshuffle which followed the retirement announcements of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans, again trading in defence materiel while maintaining home affairs and justice. His Liberal opponent is Anthony Khouri, a local businessman of Lebanese extraction who together with his brothers founded custom-made luxury car manufacturer Bufori. ReachTEL has twice conducted automated phone polls showing Khouri in the lead, by 54-46 in March and 52-48 in June.
fess,
Check @1698.
[Will the clownish PvO big note himself again … ]
Does he do anything else?
absolutetwaddle
Ah, now I’m with you! 🙂
P
‘I don’t believe Christians and Jews have ever had a war.’
Since Jews were effectively stateless for most of the last two thousand years, this is axiomatically true, provided you believe war is something that occurs between states.
If you view the Holocaust as a culmination/apotheosis rather than as an aberration, and you believe that wars can occur between between groups other than states, then Christians have waged sporadic war on the Jews for very many of the past 20 centuries.
Oh Universe, what have we started? I, for one, apologise.
[absolutetwaddle
Posted Sunday, June 16, 2013 at 9:20 pm | PERMALINK
rummel
I think it was you who predicted a 35/65 Newspoll after The Great Chicken Kev Pseudo-Challenge. Hope this one brings your average up, mate.]
i think i called it 90-10 libs 🙂
jaundiced view,
[“The New Testamant reports that Jews were the first to persecute Christians, and after Christians became the more powerful group, they frequently persecuted Jews.”
Isn’t religion wonderful?]
Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot…isn’t atheism wonderful?
Rummel I think you are stirring the faithful again 🙂
Nielsen tonight – 55/45
Newspoll tomorrow – 55/45
😉
@jv/1705
This is the Internet, with millions of people on it, who have every view point 🙂
Pseph
The jews didnt actually have a nation to wage war with for a coupla milennia. You could call pogroms war…but a bit one-sided
I used to loathe Fraser as a right-wing zealot PM. Now I despise him a weakminded silly old fool who swallows every piece of Greens claptrap he hears on RN.
What Philip Hammond actually said was not that Afghanistan in any way militarily similar to Vietnam (which it is not), but that it had produced a similar reaction of public opinion in Britain. I’ll be charitable and assume that Fraser is too senile to understand the difference.
[I doubt they even realize that it’s Julia Gillard v Rupert Murdoch. They are dross, just dross.]
And incompetent.
As someone said the other day, there has been so much significant legislative reform passed through this parliament, yet the only thing voters take away from this period of govt is one of chaos and dysfunction.
This is the fault of the press gallery. Why have a press gallery dedicated to parliament if we’re just going to get Entertainment Tonight style reportage of our parliament?
Outsource the lot of them to Entertainment Tonight, and bring in the bloggers to occupy the press gallery. I’d bet London to a brick the standard of parliamentary press coverage improved.
[The jews didnt actually have a nation to wage war with for a coupla milennia. ]
That was my point.
Been suggested on Paul Murry Live that Nielsen has a primary vote for Labor below 30%.
oakes
oraia!
So Fess, OK, I was pretty inaccurate with my whiteanting comment. Criticism of Rudd was largely out in the open before his tenure as PM, during and after.
Fred – egomaniac? So confidence is not a desirable attribute in a leader for you?
How do you make the distinction between a confident individual and an “egomaniac”? Any examples to articulate how Rudd has ever gone beyond confident into egomaniac territory?
Now, what would one of those in the 5% range in this poll would be convinced to switch to Gillard from Abbott with your ad hom? Has ad hom on balance put people off Rudd yet?
[Why have a press gallery dedicated to parliament if we’re just going to get Entertainment Tonight style reportage of our parliament?
Outsource the lot of them to Entertainment Tonight, and bring in the bloggers to occupy the press gallery. I’d bet London to a brick the standard of parliamentary press coverage improved.]
Quite.
[Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot…isn’t atheism wonderful?]
Yes: they did politics, and the religious fanatics did and do religion AND politics.
Acerbic Conehead
Yeah they all killed in the name of non-belief.
[Been suggested on Paul Murry Live that Nielsen has a primary vote for Labor below 30%.]
Ghost confirms this: primary 47 / 29.
Acerbic Conehead
“Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot…isn’t atheism wonderful?”
Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot killed people because they were communists. Not because they were atheists. You understand the distinction there, right?
pseph
glad we cleared that up
Confessions the problem is the major reforms have been subjected to confusion and to a large extent not accepted by many people.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 29 (-3) L/NP 47 (+3) #auspol
Expand
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 29 (-3) L/NP 47 (+3) #auspol
If its 47/29 then it will come in around 57/56 to 44/43. Worse than I expected.
So, only 29% to go.
Af’stan is the British Vietnam
_____________
Yes Your quote(444 deaths now) says it all
———-
That might be why Cameron ia still not so gung-ho as some Yanks are about Syrian intervention ..thought colonialist -tupe intervention must be in the DNA of some British politicians…
The Neo-Cons like McCain…the most outspoken warmonger of them all…and their Israeli sllies always opt for war but some Republicans are notably cautious..and some like Rand Paul and others are openly opposed to any US intervention
In addition the clear stand of the Russians makes any Isreali attack on Syrian positions more dangerous..especially after the russians install their s-300 AA batteries
It’s clear that the Syrian Govt forces are on the offensive
and the fact that the divided opposition are riven with pockewts of El Quida is a further problem for the US
Syria is not another Libya…which by the way looks more and more like a failed state with a real meltdown in Benghazi
Iraq/Libya/Syria…the wstern powers intervention always seems to end in disaster…nothing new to see here
Huh. It appears Australians like kicking a woman when she’s down.
That is bad.
Probably 57-43 or 58-42 then.
Psephos,
Not trying to delve but is there comedy you enjoy, question time aside?
I, for one, have a quiet chuckle here, at least once every page.
Newspoll may not have been all that wrong.
Look at the positives. The poll trend just increases the dignity with which Bill and Stephen and Julia et al will go down.
My Post 1728 refers to Frednk post 1694
_________________
William Bowe@1731
SNAFU.
@William/1731
That seems to be the case, although not quiet the claim Rummel though.
And Neilsen proves my point. Destabilisation within govt creates uncertainty for voters, and hence they look to the more unified, and certain alternative.
It ain’t rocket science, and it’s been happening for 3 years now.
@jv/1734
But as others been saying actions over next two weeks will see anything happens re: Rudd.
Sorry!
Am I supposed to go in ever decreasing circles and finally disappearing!
[Not trying to delve but is there comedy you enjoy, question time aside?]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sv5iEK-IEzw
[Huh. It appears Australians like kicking a woman when she’s down.]
No, voters are seeing a govt divided with the Member for Griffith putting himself all over the place, and the chaos this shows as a result.
davidwh
“Newspoll may not have been all that wrong.”
Well if it was right last week it’ll go back to being wrong next week.:D
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 5s
#Nielsen Poll Primary Votes (Rudd leading ALP): ALP 40 L/NP 42 #auspol
Nice dose of the salts for the populace
David – Not accepted by many people.
That’s right. Have an amicable leader, this is not a problem.
As for the high support of Gillard within the ALP vote, isn’t that exactly what one would expect when those who don’t like her vote differently?
Now that the ALP has lost basically a quarter of their 07 vote, I really can’t see how they can stop Abbott, aside from forcing Gillard to step aside for an amicable leader.
A PUP advert! The majors are lobbying themselves to death, and the only salvation is Clive, or something.
Sorry, amiable is the word I meant.
Which would probably be 51-49 to Labor, or maybe 50-50.
‘ s-300 AA batteries’
I suspect these might be SAMs not AA.
If the S-300 electronics are on a par with the electronics of the Israelis, which I doubt, and they are located near the Israeli border, and there are enough of them, they have the potential to alter somewhat the complete and utter regional aerial dominance that Israel currently enjoys.
The hype is different from reality of course. The Soviets, for their own reasons, don’t mind the hype being different, and neither does Team Blue.