Tasmanian and federal leadership polling

Polling on federal voting intention in Tasmania is, once again, not good for Labor. Also featured: Seat of the Week, starring the once-safe Labor western Sydney electorate of Blaxland.

UPDATE (Saturday evening): GhostWhoVotes reports the Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition leading 55-45, compared with 54-46 in Galaxy’s previous poll. Primary votes are 32% for Labor (down two), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Under a Kevin Rudd leadership scenario, the primary votes are 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with two-party preferred at 50-50. Nonetheless, only 34% said Gillard should make way for Rudd with 52% opposed (32-60 among Labor and 33-51 among Coalition supporters). Full results here.

Some bonus late-week polling to keep you going over the weekend:

• ReachTEL polling conducted for the Hobart Mercury points to a Labor wipeout in Tasmania and a comfortable win for Andrew Wilkie in Denison. After exclusion of the 6.8% undecided, the statewide primary votes are 48.8% for the Liberals, 28.2% for Labor and 11.3% for the Greens, suggesting a Liberal two-party lead of around 56-44 and a swing of 16% compared with the last election. The poll was conducted on Thursday night from samples of around 550 respondents per electorate for a statewide total of 2620, which probably makes it the most comprehensive Tasmanian poll ever conducted. Results by electorate (I have allocated the undecided components listed in the published primary votes in each case):

Denison: Andrew Wilkie 38.8%; Liberal 27.9%; Labor 21.3%; Greens 9.6%. The respective results at the 2010 election were 21.3%, 22.6%, 35.8% and 19.0%. Wilkie defeated Labor by 1.2% after preferences, but the published results suggest Labor would finish third behind the Liberals with their preferences securing a very easy win for Wilkie.

Franklin: Labor 38.4%; Liberal 47.1%; Greens 10.7%. The Liberals lead 51.0-49.0 after preferences, a swing of 11.8%.

Bass: Labor 25.5%; Liberal 56.9%; Greens 14.1%. The Liberals lead 61-39 after preferences, a swing of 17.7%.

Braddon: Labor 28.5%; Liberal 57.6%; Greens 7.6%. The Liberals lead 62.2-37.8 after preferences, a swing of 19.7%.

Lyons: Labor 27.5%; Liberal 54.1%; Greens 14.1%. The Liberals lead 59.0-41.0 after preferences, a swing of 22.5%.

• Another ReachTEL poll, this time targeting 1600 respondents in 11 seats in western Sydney on behalf of the Seven Network, inquired about Kevin Rudd’s popularity relative to Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott. Abbott led 64-36 over Gillard and 51-48 over Rudd, with enthusiasm for Rudd appearing to have cooled a little since ReachTEL conducted the same exercise three months ago. On that occasion, 42% said the return of Rudd would make them more likely to vote Labor against 25% for less likely. This time, the results were 36% and 31%.

• Roy Morgan has published a phone poll from a small sample of 475 respondents dealing mostly with party leadership, but also including voting intention results. The poll has the Coalition leading 59-41 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 26% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens, remembering that the margin of error here is 4.5%. Further evidence of a Coalition-skewed sample came with a 47-35 lead for Tony Abbott over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, and a 27-65 approval/disapproval split for Gillard against 41-51 for Abbott. The poll also offered detailed material on preferred Labor and Liberal leader. Kevin Rudd led for Labor with 33% support against 14% for Julia Gillard, 11% for Bill Shorten and 10% for Stephen Smith. Tony Abbott did similarly poorly for preferred Liberal leader, finishing third with 18% behind Malcolm Turnbull on 47% and Joe Hockey on 19%.

• Roy Morgan has also scoured through two years of its polling to provide the “top 10 professions more likely to vote for each party”. This shows Labor’s base remains resolutely blue-collar, with the “new class” professions dominating the Greens list. Defence force members topped the Liberal list with police in sixth place, managers and finance industry types also featuring prominently.

Seat of the week: Blaxland

The western Sydney seat of Blaxland has been held by Labor without interruption since its creation in 1949, and provided Paul Keating with a seat throughout a parliamentary career lasting from 1969 to 1996. The electorate currently extends from Bankstown in the south through Bass Hill and Regents Park to Guildford in the north. The area is marked by a strong Arabic presence, especially around Guildford, together with a large Turkish community around Auburn and concentrations of Chinese and Vietnamese at Fairfield East and Regents Park. The two strongest areas for the Liberals, Woodpark and Guildford West in the electorate’s north-western corner and Bass Hill and Georges Hall in the south, are middle-income and contain the highest proportion of English speakers. The abolition of a neighbouring electorate to the north caused the electorate to be substantially redrawn at the 2010 election, adding 24,000 of the abolished electorate’s voters around Auburn South together with 14,000 at Bankstown in the south (which had been removed from the electorate in the 2007 redistribution). Transferred out of the electorate were 20,000 voters around Cabramatta to the west and 18,000 around Greenacre to the south.

Blaxland’s greatest moment of electoral interest came with its inauguration at the 1949 election, when Jack Lang attempted to move to the new seat after winning Reid as a Labor renegade in 1946. He failed, and the seat has since been won for Labor by margins of never less than 8.8%. James Harrison held the seat for the 20 years before the arrival of Paul Keating, who was succeeded at a 1996 by-election by Michael Hatton. Hatton’s career proved rather less illustrious than his predecessor’s, and he was dumped by the party’s national executive ahead of the 2007 election. The ensuing preselection was won by the Right-backed Jason Clare, a Transburban executive and former advisor to NSW Premier Bob Carr, who prevailed over constitutional law expert George Williams and Bankstown mayor Tania Mihailuk. Clare suffered what by Sydney standards was a modest 4.4% swing at the 2010 election, reducing the margin to 12.2%, but the electorate’s five corresponding state seats swung by between 13.8% and 20.3% at the state election the following March, with Granville and East Hills falling to the Liberals and Bankstown, Auburn and Fairfield remaining with Labor.

Jason Clare won promotion to parliamentary secretary in 2009, and then to the outer ministry after the 2010 election in the defence materiel portfolio. He shifted to home affairs and justice in December 2011, further recovering defence materiel after Kevin Rudd’s failed leadership bid the following February. He was promoted to cabinet as cabinet secretary in the February 2013 reshuffle which followed the retirement announcements of Nicola Roxon and Chris Evans, again trading in defence materiel while maintaining home affairs and justice. His Liberal opponent is Anthony Khouri, a local businessman of Lebanese extraction who together with his brothers founded custom-made luxury car manufacturer Bufori. ReachTEL has twice conducted automated phone polls showing Khouri in the lead, by 54-46 in March and 52-48 in June.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,824 comments on “Tasmanian and federal leadership polling”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    On BB’s advice I won’t even look at Hartcher’s Ruddstoration article let alone link it.
    I wonder what a Reachtel poll of this fine group of people would yield.
    This sort of testosterone-charged power game is certainly not wanted in our armed foces.
    Yes, not a good week for certain men.
    Stephanie Peatling weighs in on the treatment PMJG has been getting from day one.
    Dreyfus may broadside Mesma and Morriscum in QT this week.
    What nut jobs!
    Ah! A “productivity” improvement.
    Alan Moir has had enough of the Ruddstoration circle jerk.
    A lovely cartoon from Pat Campbell on the army revelations.
    MUST SEE! A classic piss take by Ron Tandberg!

  2. Getting messier for the LNP in Qld. Plus it seems the CMC have been given the Flegg Tapes recently.

    SENIOR party officials feared Tim Nicholls was poised to snare the LNP leadership as they plotted to parachute Campbell Newman into State Parliament.

    Damning recordings, conducted covertly by embattled MP Bruce Flegg, reveal claims Mr Nicholls, now state treasurer, was actively canvassing support among fellow MPs to overthrow then leader John-Paul Langbroek.]

  3. Why do the pro coalition media bother with these opinion polls, which mean squat.

    There will no election held now, so put it down for another poll to be 100% wrong

    What would be interesting a

    Questions with no media influence and more relevant

    Who are you leaning towards on September 14th, which would be more reality than current media biased opinion poll

  4. Meguire Bob

    I sympathise with your frustration, but these polls do not mean squat to the media.

    They justify endless speculation about the election, they justify more and more follow up polls, and they persuade the voters that they might as well stop thinking because the election is already decided.

    They are part of the campaign to destroy Labor.

  5. Asking if Tim was gay was not the most insulting thing Sattler said.

    [It has been somewhat lost in the general outrage over the ”is Tim gay?” questions that Sattler also asked the Prime Minister why she is not married – as if he was some pushy dinner party guest out of Bridget Jones’s Diary. To Gillard’s credit, she calmly replied: ”Personal choice. And I think the fact that I’m not married shows obviously, I think, that you can have a relationship that’s committed and full of love and full of significance in your life without being married.”

    Unsatisfied with this, the opinionated, obstinate and ferocious Sattler pushed on: ”OK, but have you been proposed to at all? Come on, Tim, pull the ring out, son.”
    As downright patronising and irrelevant as this is, what makes Sattler’s interview truly concerning is that while it is an extreme example, it is not an isolated one. Criticism of Gillard’s prime ministership has often taken a deeply personal tone that doesn’t correspond with the fact that she is the leader of the country.]
    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/misogyny-no-its-just-a-pm-with-the-wrong-physiology-20130614-2o9k8.html#ixzz2WEA3WgfS

  6. lizzie

    Yeah these polls show how gullible people are, why the media continues with them.’

    At the end of the day , come election , i still think it will be a repeat of 2010 or slight labor majority

  7. Also the propaganda about the leadership is the way it is because its coming up to 3 years of failure against Gillard when she took over as pm

  8. Newsltd /Abbott coalition

    Ever since been pushing and expected the P.M to be gone , but being an intelligent politician , Gillard prove she is unbeaten

  9. Posted on old thread:

    OzPol Tragic
    Posted Saturday, June 15, 2013 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    Good morning, Dawn Patrol.

    Brrrr! 7 degrees with a howling wind – 35kph gusts.

    Thanks & hello to you & yours, BK

    Dreyfus may broadside Mesma and Morriscum in QT this week.

    Moreover, at least one witness lied to the Senate. That’s a serious breach; usually resulting in being Called before the Bar of the Senate. Probably thought himself safe, with only a few more Parliamentary sitting days left.

    Took Aussie MSM how many days to catch up on this one? SBS ran it Thursday, by which time it was old news to G-Oz & PB readers.

    BTW, has The Oz published it yet?


    Note lack of acknowledgement that info came from several Guardian articles over the last few days

    Will add spice to Monday’s QT!

  10. These polls mean quite a lot to the parties as well as most people who spend time hanging out on a polling blog. They are very very bad for labor, but that doesn’t make them irrelevant or meaningless.

  11. [The number of people geting sick of it is increasing:]

    Or much more likely those already polarised to a position are getting louder and more defiant as they stick their fingers in their ears turn their brains firmly to the ‘off – not thinking position’ and go ‘nanananananana – I’m right’ to anyone of the alternative view.



  13. part of the letter

    It’s when you don’t bother to find out who else was at Brough’s dinner. It’s when you take the word of the restaurant owner over the chef’s evidence and you decide not to investigate the truth. It’s when you don’t ask why Brough apologised long before the restaurant owner said the menu was never printed. It’s when someone is lying and you don’t care. It’s when you stalk Craig Thomson and ignore James Ashby. It’s when you beat up stories about Gillard’s ex boyfriend 20 years ago, but make nothing of Abbott’s current slush-fund court case. It’s when you report everything from the worn out, inaccurate narrative of Labor ‘chaos’ and ‘failure’ and you actively support Abbott’s teflon-un-scrutinised stunt show, that we know you are campaigners, not journalists. It’s when you forget that it’s your job to find things out and to tell us the facts, that we remember we can’t trust you. And if we can’t trust you, why should we bother with your words? It all comes down to integrity and respect for the audience. Of which I would question if you have any. Ever noticed how the only people defending you on social media are your own members? Why is that? How can all of us be so outraged by you on a daily basis yet you still ignore the criticism? Time and time again we see you saying you’re getting disapproval from supporters on both sides of politics so you must be doing the right thing. This is bullshit. You’re getting criticism from everyone because you are doing a terrible job of reporting the news. This is why watching Newsroom is so sad. I’m watching a hypothetical scenario of how things could, in a decent world, work. But you, the mainstream media in Australia, do not belong to this world. So this world remains an unattainable fantasy.

  14. The Liberal supporters rave and rant about Union corruption but always remain silent on business ripping off peoples life savings – never seen a Union go bankrupt, never seen a Union leave its shareholders (members) penniless

    Tim Johnston and other directors of Firepower fleeced $100 million from investors with the false promise of a pill that would reduce cars’ fuel consumption.

  15. Time to get serious. There is legitimate criticism of the Prime Minister, proper in a democracy. And there is the torrent of insult and hatred, much of it sexual filth, that has been hurled at Gillard from the day she took the job.

    That slop-bucket restaurant “menu” and Sattler’s indecencies were but the latest symptoms of a lingering sickness.

    There is an ugly fault line in Australian society, beyond which there are far, far too many men who seek meaning in their twisted lives by the degradation of women. The Prime Minister has become a lightning rod for this misogyny, which I suspect she recognises.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/just-get-all-the-dirt-on-him–know-what-i-mean-20130614-2o9i3.html#ixzz2WI2VcPJs

  16. [Malcolm Farr ‏@farrm51 10m
    This on my Facebook page last night. Don’t think soc med created nasty meatheads but it sure let them loose. pic.twitter.com/hOcaieUUDQ ]

  17. Damn, have to redo my posts —

    Very nice editorial on my plight (a shared one, I hasten to say) ==

    [Once again, a patient has been caught in the middle, showing the vulnerability of those seeking to alleviate their suffering; a vulnerability that shouldn’t be caught up in political arguments.]

    And the accompanying articleS —


    [As of March, the number of Victorians awaiting elective surgeries had blown out to 50,565, up from 10,000 in December.]


    [Mr McCurdy said in his discussions with Northeast Health Wangaratta, its funding appeared to be enough, “but that’s not to say we can’t do better”.]


    [Once an active and vibrant member of the community, she now struggles with everyday tasks and can’t even travel as far as Albury on the weekends to watch her son play football.]

    [Ms Leschen had to sell her family’s horses as their upkeep was too much for her and simple pleasures, like gardening, are impossible.

    She feared it would be at least another year before she could return to work, which means her teaching career was “shot”, while she’s also had to give up politics.

    “Basically everything that’s been my life for the past 30 years, I can’t do any more,” she said.]

  18. I am reposting this to back up Aussie Achmed’s piece and because the new thread started before I put it up last time.

    I don’t know about the rest of you, but while watching the “Friday Forum” on Lateline w/ Alberichi, Murphy and Coorey..I was becoming more and more outraged!…with every “knowing guffaw”, with every “analytical context”…with every “nudge, nudge, wink-wink”…I could see that with the MSM. we have a third “player” in the political arena.
    An unelected third party in the room..besides the conservatives, the progressives, we now have the “Concubine Coutiers”….the “Keepers of the Context” circulating around from party to party to public commentry, inserting a bit of suspicion here, a bit of a “chinese Whisper” there and all the while “sighing in mock suprise” at the political cynicism pervading in the main parties…..Low filth!….low, low, filth!
    I said months ago that perhaps it would be a good idea to single out these MSM. journos’ and seek public submissions of rumour, innuendo and salacious scandal to totally destroy each and every one of them…perhaps THAT was going a tad too far…but I believe the gov’t has to reintroduce media laws to bring these rogue cowboys under a moral and ethical umbrella…a thing they do not seem capable of implementing off their own back

  19. zoomster

    [Mr McCurdy said in his discussions with Northeast Health Wangaratta, its funding appeared to be enough, “but that’s not to say we can’t do better”.]

    I always hate those weasel words.

  20. lizzie

    I’d wait out the year in silence if just one of them indicated that they didn’t just accept the situation but were doing all they could to fix it.

  21. I think the Guardian Australia made a gross mistake in hiring those OM. journos. They would have been much better served in starting fresh with a seleted few of the “New Writers” from the Fifth Estate. Sure, the “appraoch” may be stranger than what they were used to..The “context” may be out of line to the usual “context”…and the syntax may seem stranger to the usual pedantic method..but at least they would have a new vision to build on..a fresh and perhaps scintillating view of the “new Audience” who wants a different perspective and a brighter and more intellectual construct to every-day news.
    Instead, they have chickened out to opt for the window sash to open inwards to another darkened room, when they could just as easy made it so that same window opened to a brand new day, with a sparkling new perspective!……..The Guardian is the loser!

  22. zoomster

    it seems the more money that is spent on health the more it needs. What is happening with waiting lists is a disgrace.

    I see locum doctors in the regions being paid $2000 per day plus accommodation plus car plus airfares.

    I have raised with the pollies but see nothing happening. Perhaps the problem is the state Liberals??

    I wish you well and hope you get the op you need

  23. Morning all.


    I thought I read that your surgery was scheduled to take place in the next few months? Why is it now taking a year?

  24. Your story surprises me Zoomster. I was out of the public system for 5 years until 10 months ago. When I left waits of 1-3 years were relatively common , then the Gillard health reforms came in and waiting lists became a priority on which Federal funding will become dependent. In central Sydney at least we take the NEST targets very seriously and no one waits longer than their allocated time.

  25. zoomster


    As of March, the number of Victorians awaiting elective surgeries had blown out to 50,565, up from 10,000 in December.

    The reason that, despite its cost (I could buy a new laptop, iPhone & more a year, or holiday OS annually) I maintain top-of-the-plans private health care, as I have since 01/01/1961 when permanent employment dropped me from my parents’ cover & decided to take out cover with a Benevolent Society. When that folded, I transferred to my union fund & am still there.

    I’m old, getting frail and have had a few nasty falls lately, though not with damage where it’s at its worst. But if I had one today & landed on my left hip, despite several years of medication to redress calcium leaching due to Avandia, I’d almost certainly need a hip replacement & very likely surgery to one or more lumbar vertabrae. The annual OS holiday would be poor compensation indeed for pain suffered while on the waiting list.

    By the end of next week, I might know if a new mode of fixing aortic regurgitation without general anaesthetic is available to me; though, as is usual with new technology, its cost above what my health plan covers will probably be significant. If it is, then the thought of being able to return to bush/city/walking, even getting up stairs without puffing, would be worth scrimping, saving, even selling-off a few treasures.

    Life, imo, is a series of weighing up the pros & cons about every significant decision, with rigorous rationality.

  26. Mike Carlton is absolutely correct:

    [Time to get serious. There is legitimate criticism of the Prime Minister, proper in a democracy. And there is the torrent of insult and hatred, much of it sexual filth, that has been hurled at Gillard from the day she took the job.

    That slop-bucket restaurant “menu” and Sattler’s indecencies were but the latest symptoms of a lingering sickness.

    There is an ugly fault line in Australian society, beyond which there are far, far too many men who seek meaning in their twisted lives by the degradation of women. The Prime Minister has become a lightning rod for this misogyny, which I suspect she recognises.

    In a week even more squalid than usual, one man had the guts to draw the line. The Chief of Army, Lieutenant-General David Morrison, was magnificent in his scorn for the creeps in the Defence Force he exposed on Thursday.

    The Defence top brass are usually portrayed as bone-headed blimps, but Morrison gave the lie to that. If the army can change its culture, it should not be beyond the rest of the nation.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/just-get-all-the-dirt-on-him–know-what-i-mean-20130614-2o9i3.html#ixzz2WEg6ll99

  27. ONE in five Australian men works over 50 hours each week, ranking the nation among the hardest working in the developed world.
    Australians ranked fourth for long hours worked among 34 OECD nations.

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/worklife/one-in-five-australian-men-work-more-than-50-hours-a-week-oecd-data-shows/story-e6frfm9r-1226664209204#ixzz2WIKbsZBZ

    How can this be?? Haven’t the Libs and their supporters been telling us that Unions have created a bunch of lazy worthless workers that have damaged our productivity???

  28. confessions

    Yes, a hint there that I might be being used – which is OK by me!

    I rang the surgery at the start of the week, as I’ve been expecting to hear something, given my initial year was almost up and was told that I was right up the list and would only be waiting a few more months.

    The next day I get a call to say that I would be waiting another year, no explanation given, but if I got a letter from my local doctor than this would be reconsidered.

    I rang one of my local MPs- it’s an electoral office which was Labor for a short time, and I worked there then, so I’m well known to them (and I thought I had a reasonable relationship with the MP).

    They made it obvious that they’d do all they could to help ME but that was as far as it went. It was all the Federal government’s fault, full stop.

    I pushed for some kind of indication that, regardless of whose fault they thought it was, they might consider doing something about and it was pretty clear that, having found someone to blame, they thought they’d done all they could.

    So I went to the media.

  29. Oakeshott Country

    Posted Saturday, June 15, 2013 at 9:16 am | Permalink

    Why are your concerned by the use of locums in the regions?

    not concerned about the use of locums in regions….but $2000 per DAY plus plus plus is of concern.

    Jeez ppl rabbit on about fly in/fly out workers in the mining industry making in a year what a locum makes in 3 months

  30. No surprise that there is strong support for the LNP within the military. A case of mysogynists of a feather sticking together?

  31. OzPol

    1. I worked in a local electorate office 10 years ago. In the time I worked there, I never received a complaint about waiting lists. Now it’s obvious that the same office gets them regularly (they were very slick dealing with mine).

    2. I’ve had two sinus operations, the most recent only a few years ago. They were needed, but their impact on my life wasn’t hugely dramatic – a few days off work a year, a couple of weeks a year feeling miserable.

    In both cases, I hardly waited at all. So up until now, I’ve always thought that surgery you REALLY need is provided in a timely fashion…and thus private health wasn’t necessary.

    And I was prepared (just) to wait a year. If I’d known it was going to be at least two (because there’s no indication anyone at State level is worried enough to stop that happening) I’d have taken out private health insurance.

  32. [ An Open Letter to the Mainstream Media … ]

    AussieAchmed, there is something odd about that link. But this is an absolutely outstanding article, so I’m posting an alternative link:


    Anybody who doesn’t understand the current parlous state of the Australian media – including News Ltd, the Guardian and the ABC – should read this article.

    It is depressing beyond words … it points out just how far below reasonable standards reporting in this country have fallen.

    It also explains why so few people are buying their crap any more. But of course, few in the media will ever either read it, understand it or agree with it.

    Like dogs returning to their own vomit, they’re all too busy with their confected stories about leadership crises.

  33. [There is legitimate criticism of the Prime Minister,]


    What has Gillard done that is so bad?

    Her only crime has been that she joined the Labor Party instead of the Liberal Party.

    Old media would’ve been in love had she joined the Liberals Party.

    I hope Murdoch dies in Abbott’s time in office. Can I say that? If not, William snip it 😛

  34. Twitter exchange

    [margo kingston ‏@margokingston1 34m
    Anyone else sensing political MSM consensus breaking down on gender war? Female journos leading charge to change Gillard hate narrative.]

    [ Andrew Elder ‏@awelder Protected account 12m
    @margokingston1 Yes but @frankellyabc insisting PM brought it upon herself. Younger female journos outside ABC trying to detox narrative]

  35. Does Professor Van Onselen have inside knowledge about the upcoming Newspoll?

    [JULIA Gillard’s long-time nemesis, the opinion polls, may offer surprise salvation for her this coming fortnight if enough voters feel sorry for her given the increasing attacks she has had to endure.

    It would of course be a false rise rather than a genuine sign of recovery. This Prime Minister’s goose is well and truly cooked. But that doesn’t alter the political significance even a statistically insignificant rise in the polls might have on the Labor leadership.]


  36. These polls are distressing.

    I hope they convince Gillard to step aside, let Rudd take the hit.

    Julia doesn’t deserve it!

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