Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll is an especially bad one for Labor, coming in at 58-42 for the Coalition from primary votes of 30% for Labor and 49% for the Coalition.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll is an especially bad one for Labor, coming in at 58-42 for the Coalition from primary votes of 30% for Labor and 49% for the Coalition. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 28% and up three on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 37% and down one to 53%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 40-39 to 43-35.

Also:

JWS Research has conducted automated phone polls in the Melbourne seats of Isaacs, Chisholm and Melbourne Ports, each with a sample of around 500 respondents and a margin of error of slightly below 4.5%. These point to a huge swing in Isaacs, a small swing in Melbourne Ports, and no swing in Chisholm, with an improbably large gap separating the first from the last. Isaacs: Liberal 45%, Labor 35%, Greens 8%, 55-45 to Liberal (15.4% swing to Liberal). Melbourne Ports: Labor 49%, Liberal 41%, Greens 6%, 55.2-44.8 to Labor (2.7% swing to Liberal). Chisholm: Labor 51%, Liberal 42%, Greens 3%, 55.6-44.4 to Labor (0.2% swing to Liberal).

Essential Research has Labor regaining the primary vote point they lost last week, now at 35%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8% and two-party preferred steady at 55-45. Other findings suggest support for higher renewable energy targets (11% think the current 20% target by 2020 too high, 33% about right, and 40% not high enough), wind farms (76% support, 11% oppose), compulsory vaccination (87% support, 7% oppose), the right of childcare centres to refuse children who have not been vaccinated (78% support, 11% oppose), and a ban on advertising of sports betting (78% support, 12% oppose), and opposition to privatisation of the ABC and SBS (15% support, 57% oppose). Fifty-two per cent think it important that Australia have a car manufacturing industry against 35% not important; 61% favoured a proposition that “with government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” against 22% for “there is no future for manufacturing in Australia and government support would be a waste of money”.

Morgan has Labor down two points on the primary vote to 31.5%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 45.5% and 9.5%. The move against Labor is softened by preferences on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition lead shifts from 54.5-45.5 to 55-45. On previous election preferences, the change is from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,504 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. carey moore save your satire until after the election – you will have plenty for spleen then.

    am not amused with amateur soothsayers (jules fanboys) who ruled this digital underground for so long. it’s only a brave man like moore who would ridicule any to the current malaise. loyalty until death – gillard and mel seem to have a lot in common

  2. Could you imagine the mind explosion here if they bought back Rudd and he won the election.

    You would see hatred of Rudd 1000 x Reith-Howard-Downer.

    As it is they are preparing their scripts for denigrating Rudd for Gillard’s coming massive loss.

  3. i am stunned there are souls here who still after three years of electoral battering dont get it. it doesn’t matter what or how the party thought of rudd – the public thought they elected someone for at least a term. the alp is guilty in part and by association of profound violation of democratic and ethical principles. if they dont correct things they will be in oblivion for longer. abbot is deemed preferable than someone not to be trust – if you think that’s strange argue it at your local pub and accept responsibility where it belongs

  4. Good Geoff but the bus driver also knows that when the ex whip mocks his own party for the sake of a man who does not have the guts to challenge then you don’t have a functioning government but a rabble which does not deserve re-election.

  5. Can I just put it out there that I don’t believe a serious election loss will end the ALP.

    It’s very much a swings and roundabouts thing.

  6. oakeshott

    thanks but whatever.

    why run to suffer white-anting a second time.
    arbib still smiles

    i dont know how the gillard camp can sleep at night

    its not over until they all cry at night

  7. Why this sense of entitlement, a rock star is only as good as his last record and a surgeon only as good as his last operation.
    In our system a PM only rules with the consent of parliament and his party. If he is so hopeless that he can’t retain that, even if it is his first term, then he is no longer PM

  8. compact crank

    but what a way to lose.

    when do we celebrate the defeat of howard – we waited a long time for that and abbot is more dangerous in his catholic impunity

  9. @2409

    I would have thought having the first Indigenous member of the HoR should be enough for the ALP to leave him alone.

  10. Did you all see the way the media hacks left Keenan standing alone and raced to Rudd?

    The voters will listen to Rudd by being intrigued alone.

    Rudd can campaign and cut through 😎

    You watch, it’ll be on, no challenge, Julia will get the tap.

    Besides I don’t want her to cop the hiding, she don’t deserve it 😥

    *night* 😛 🙂

  11. TLBD
    I am not complaining about what the PM has achieved in the circumstances it has been impressive. I am saying that a party with such disunity gives the impression of a rabble and is unelectable – rightly so too.

  12. oakeshot

    whatever?

    which minister do your work for?

    the law is an ass in this case if it flies in face of public opinion. the alp has to a large degree been held in contempt since mid 2010 and now that its strategists were so demonstrably wrong public opinion

    DONT DUMP A FIRST TERM PM ESP ONE WHO DEFEATED HOWARD
    (especially to appease union power)

    If you dont see that then leave the public domain

  13. Geoffrey and Thomas Paine demonstrating what I dislike most about the Ruddists on here. The boring straw man argument about anybody who disagrees with them, regardless of their rationale.

    I hold no ill will against Rudd, nor any delusions about Gillard’s electibility or lack thereof. However, I do reserve the right to question:

    1. The myths about Kevin Rudd, in particular his supposed ultra-popularity that will bring the government back (in just three months I add), the “everything good that happened under Rudd was him alone; everything bad was his meanie advisors” crap and finally “the only reason he was removed was (insert something petty or malicious).

    2. The assumption that he’s coming back any day now. As I said just before, there’s only three months left. We’re possibly at the point where nobody will be able to stem the tide against the government. He probably knows this. Why on Earth would he want to inherit that poisoned chalice?!

    I am not a conspiracy theorist, nor do I have an intense hatred for the man. I just prefer logic and reason, as opposed to delusional fantasies.

    Is Gillard going to lose? Almost certainly. Is a return to Rudd the miracle cure? Probably not.

  14. OC,

    Managing the “hung” House of Representatives for three years with no opposition vote getting up and 500 plus bills getting up entitles our PM, and her Leader of the House, to living legend status.

  15. Confessions – I wouldn’t have thought the Libs would even bother campaigning in Hasluck. Need to concentrate on beating Grat, Smith and the very lovely Ms Parkes.

  16. So Geoffrey, let me get this right, Labor would certainly win if Rudd was returned but he won’t stand unless everyone supports him without question even though a significant number in the caucus felt that he was a weak, indesicive lmicro-managing leader with a borderline personality disorder.

    Have I got the current situation right?

  17. Center

    Yes your position is well known but i don’t see a return to Rudd unless after September the 14th the ALP are reduced to holding

    Rudd
    Fitzgibbon
    Batman (Thomas)
    Ricworth
    Husic

    But something tells me the ALP might win a few extra seats and they will vote in someone other than Rudd

  18. I note on Rudd that even his greatest supporters amongst the parliamentary party have talked about bringing him back because it will improve the policies on offer, bring better government, or even just that he’s a better leader.

    The only argument ever advanced for bringing him back is that it will see an improvement in the polls.

    That’s tealeaf reading. He might, but….he might not.

    And if he did not, there’s nothing gained. And if he does, there’s not much point when no one wants to work with him.

  19. No the ALP need to get away from the Rudd/Gillard era

    It either needs to become the Gillard Government or a totally new face

  20. [election mid Oct bring it on.]

    If you think going to the polls on any other date than 14 September (regardless of who is calling the election) won’t invite huge public backlash (stoked enthusiastically by the Coalition) then I have a bridge to sell you!

  21. OC,

    History, media willing, will count for more for Labor, come the election.

    Labor has such a tide of goodies on the opposition that the destruction of the Moehne dam will seem like backwash from a teaspoon.

    JGPM said she would govern until she goes to Quenty. She is doing just that.

    The fireworks yet to come would impress Mount Etna.

  22. the little black duck

    you wont win on theological grounds either. wont even build a premise (try)

    OC

    the public disagrees. qed. there are lots of micro managers out there some of them ceo of major oz companies and they stay. grin. be a man

  23. Will Morrison be the first Opposition member to go viral on Social media for this morning’s media fiasco??

    From The Guardian: Oz, UK and USA; the US & USA Headline? The press conference from hell: Media pack leaves Australian politican dangling when someone more important walks past

    Journalists ditch Scott Morrison mid-press conference – video”

    Ah, International fame for our vituperative refugee-hater.

    Youtube already has 11 different postings & the presser fiasco isn’t even 24 hrs old!

    I’m not on Facebook, Twitter, Reddit or other social media sites, so don’t know who many other postings there are.

    Morrison, the ranting face of anti-refugee racism, as an international embarrassment to Australia. How embarrassing!

    Pity it didn’t happen last week, though!

  24. OPT Fitzgibbon was the big story of the morning after he dumped on his leader from a great height. Morrison was a mere by-line.

  25. OC:

    [I am not complaining about what the PM has achieved in the circumstances it has been impressive. I am saying that a party with such disunity gives the impression of a rabble and is unelectable – rightly so too.]

    No, that’s completely wrong. It’s as I said to my fellow commuter on the train today. The purpose and rationale for unity is policy development and implementation. If the government can manage to do that and make a reasonable job of it, then disunity (apparent or merely hyped) is entirely moot.

    Governments are elected to govern. If they make a hash of it, then unity ought not to save them, and if they do it well, then dissent should not strike them down. Indeed, if they can do it well despite dissent, that may recommend them more strongly.

    This goes double if the opposition has no coherent policy set, which in this case, is clearly the case.

  26. OH said that Keenan (?) got a similar ignoring when Kevvie walked past. Is that right?

    Seems Keenan just grinned and bore it. Keenan is such a nincompoop, judging from his performance in parliament today.

  27. No, that’s completely wrong. It’s as I said to my fellow commuter on the train today. The purpose and rationale for unity is policy development and implementation. If the government can manage to do that and make a reasonable job of it, then disunity (apparent or merely hyped) is entirely moot.

    Did he suddenly realise that he had forgotten to feed the cat and got off at the next station?

  28. [No the ALP need to get away from the Rudd/Gillard era

    It either needs to become the Gillard Government or a totally new face]

    Nope, I suspect a wrong needs to be repaired or public perception will continue punishment beyond the election.

    With Gillard, Labor is a sick creature that needs to be put down and thereafter an object of scorn. However a Rudd return, even with a loss, will be seen as Labor trying to redeem itself.

  29. BTW Chinese TV has been saying that Swan’s budget was a political one and that it is destructive to the Australian economy. This being TVB there will be many Australian Chinese watching that.

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