Only the two weekly pollsters have reported national results this week, which have done nothing to interfere with what appears to be a post-budget uptick for Labor. This results in a 0.3% two-party gain to add to the 0.5% shift last week, translating into a gain of two on the seat projection (one from New South Wales and one from Western Australia). The Queensland Galaxy poll has translated into a relative 0.5% shift away from Labor in that state, which was mostly cancelled out by the change in the national result. Full details on the sidebar.
Preselection news:
• The Queensland LNP has chosen party treasurer Barry O’Sullivan to fill the Senate vacancy created by Barnaby Joyce’s bid for Tony Windsor’s lower house seat of New England. Barry O’Sullivan was chosen ahead of 11 other candidates, including Larry Anthony, Howard government minister and former member for Richmond; tourism executive Mary Carroll; Western Downs mayor Ray Brown; and Toowoomba doctor and social conservative David van Gend. O’Sullivan made the news in 2011 when a recording emerged of him using forthright language in dealing with a disendorsed state election candidate.
• NineMSN reports the long-delayed local preselection ballot for the Illawarra seat of Throsby, where Labor incumbent Stephen Jones faces a challenge from local Right faction operative John Rumble, will be held on June 15.
• AAP reports Emma McBride, Wyong Hospital executive and daughter of former local state MP Grant McBride, has withdrawn from the Labor preselection to choose a successor to Craig Thomson in Dobell. The report says contenders “could” include Wyong Shire councillor Lisa Matthews and David Mehan, a local union official who challenged Thomson for preselection at the 2010 election.
Other news:
• New campaign finance legislation to be introduced by the government shortly is proving a source of contention on two fronts. A plan for parties to receive “administrative funding” set according to their share of the vote, at an overall cost of around $13 million a year, has met a predictably hostile response in the media and is unlikely to be going down well with the public (a similar measure was axed in Queensland last year as part of the Newman government’s savings drive). There has also reportedly been furious opposition in caucus, notably from Senator John Faulkner, to a watering down of long-delayed plans to revise the threshold for disclosure of political donations. This was hiked from $1500 to an indexed $10,000 (now over $12,000) by the Howard government in 2005. Legislation introduced by the Rudd government in 2008, and reaffirmed as part of the minority government agreements with independents and Greens after the 2010 election, sought to bring it back down to $1000. Now the government proposes the threshold be set at $5000, a total presumably reached in negotiation with the Liberals. A government source quoted by Tom Dusevic of The Australian says a $5000 threshold will capture 60% of donations, whereas a $1000 threshold would have captured 80%. Bernard Keane of Crikey the new bill will also leave open the loophole that allows undisclosed donations below the threshold to be made to each state and territory party branch, which was to have been dealt with under earlier versions of the bill.
• Financial consultants Pottinger have produced a Bayesian model for predicting the election result which incorporates historical results and betting markets as well as polling over the current term. It projects “a central 2PP outcome for the ALP of 47.2%, with a 95% confidence interval of about 43.8% to 50.2%”, and gives the Coalition a 93.6% chance of winning the election against 1.9% for Labor, with a 4.5% chance of a hung parliament.
[Posted Friday, May 31, 2013 at 6:56 pm | PERMALINK
Rua
SHY is a goner unless Senator X tanks big time.]
That’s great news
Evidently we are paying for the NBN with our lives according to The Project.
Tom
True there is only natural Liberal area of Melbourne is that strip between East Melbourne, the CBD and Docklands.
[but even Eddie McGuire admitted they were.]
Eventually yes, after it was clear to him that he only had two viable options – either declare himself a racist or stick to his guns and become a free speech/political correctness martyr with a completely ruined career and life.
Europe unemployment numbers coming through. General rate is 12%
Some countries around the 30% mark
Battle
You are wrong. Just accept it.
Are there any high profile candidates running against Gillard to give her the JWH treatment?
Both Feeney and Kearney are quality candidates IMO. Feeney is vastly underrated by many on here: he is very intelligent, knowledgable (especially on Defence and strategic issues) and personable. What he isn’t is charismatic: but that applies to a high proportion of MPs on both sides.
Feeney is better suited to the Senate. He is streets ahead of the majority of Labor senators, including a number of Victorian ones. But, alas, various numbers games put his Senate seat in jeopardy.
Kearney is both intelligent and charismatic: the most articulate and impressive ACTU leader in a long, long while. Hardly a union hack. She’s potential leadership material IMO.
It’s a funny bunch of Labor supporters on here. I’m not one, but can see the quality of both candidates.
@TheKouk: Any wonder the neo-Nazis come out with youth unemployment at 62%? http://t.co/2vPZrAZfye
Given that Nick X has achieved absolutely nothing apart from being a Mate of Barnaby, why would anyone for him again?
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 42m
Coz yknow Eddie never tolerated Sam Newman behaving like a blackfaced dickhead on the footy show.]
meher baba
Sounds as if whatever the outcome, we lose a good representative.
Out of fairness to Sam, how else are you meant to impersonate a dark skinned person,
If i wanted to impersonate a Purple haired green skinned yellow tongued person that is how i would dress.
I wish to congratulate the ALP on selecting another excessively underachieving right-wing homophobic professional unionist no-body as their Number 1 QLD Senate candidate.
You try so hard to lose (mildly educated) peoples’ vote.
The ALP is becoming a caricature of itself.
It only gets 40+% of the final preferred vote because the only opposition is, yes you guessed, a collection of under-achieving right-wing homophobic anti-intellectual professional no-bodies (BUT never unionists).
When Constable Dutton is Minister for Health, prissy Pyne Minister for Education, Joyce DPM and Minister for Logic…. I will blame the ALP.
I think Sam’s treatment of Caro was worst but then again her journalist skills in recent times put her on par with Mark Kenny
[It’s a funny bunch of Labor supporters on here. I’m not one, but can see the quality of both candidates.]
No there not…. Gillard is supporting Feeney so team Gillard have naturally fallen inline already regardless of the any argument.
For mine, I think Ged is very impressive from what I have seen on TV.
[ Abbott will certainly confuse the Indonesians if he ever becomes PM.
On the one hand, he will apologise profusely for the temporary ban on live cattle exports to Indonesia.
On the other hand, he will risk a confrontation with the Indonesian government by shoving asylum seeker boats back into Indonesian waters.
His pronouncements are a mass of contradictions. ]
No, the Indonesians will have no trouble at all with Abbott. They will take him at his word, and not believe anything he says. And they would be right to do so.
But the person I find most disgusting on this issue today is not Abbott, it is Mesma, Tonight she implied that the Indonesians had been lying, and that “turning the boats back” had been in fact been discussed “at the highest levels” with them – but that she couldn’t say any more, presumably without jeopardizing some “secret” negotiatons.
She is quite simply a lying toad, tying herself up in knots trying to defend a leader who is indefensible.
And these people want to be in charge of our National Security? Give me a break!
@swamprat/2764
I already thought people blaming ALP anyway?
swamprat – I have a simple solution – vote ALP.
Rummel
Agree, I look at the two candidates and try and picture who may be better at getting out into voterland and i think that pushes it to Ged.
Some pollies just suit being in the Senate.
Player One
This whole thing is not just embarrassing, but detrimental to Australia’s position in Asia. Doesn’t take much to lose face.
This is excellent.
[TheAge Breaking News @theagebreaking 3m
Legal win: neither ‘M’ or ‘F’: People who don’t identify as male or female legally recognised in Australia for… http://bit.ly/11G0I8K ]
swamprat@2765: same in WA and in SA until thr order of Wong and Farrell was reversed after a public outcry. And Shoppies also in prominent spots in other states.
DLP types increasingly dominate the Coalition in the House and Labor in the Senate.
[Out of fairness to Sam, how else are you meant to impersonate a dark skinned person,]
By mimicking elements of their appearance which aren’t racially based.
Think Symonds impersonators who chose the wig of frizzy hair and zinc on the bottom lip.
[Think Symonds impersonators who chose the wig of frizzy hair and zinc on the bottom lip.]
Surely the frizzy hair is racist?
[She is quite simply a lying toad, tying herself up in knots trying to defend a leader who is indefensible.]
Greg Sheridan of all people scathingly declared her to be the worst shadow foreign minister in Australia’s history.
BTW I think both Feeney and Kearney were raised as Catholics, but not sure either of them still practice their religion.
mikehilliard
[swamprat – I have a simple solution – vote ALP.]
I hate the LNP and their destruction of everything I support but the ALP, while better in policies, is so without conviction, rightist and cautious and absolutely politically stupid.
No matter whether ALP or the LNP get elected, both parties would be very happy if Australia was the last OECD country that introduced gay equality.
Why does the ALP glory in being wagged by the obscene LNP tail?
Ch10 Perth news led with the man who died hang gliding as its first story. Its second story was the latest with the McKenna sex abuse scandal. Its third story was this:
[While Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley says it has been a tough week for both Goodes and McGuire, Malthouse showed no sympathy for his former club president.
“Adam is a very caring person,” Malthouse told a news conference on Friday.
“So when that took place, I was not thinking of who delivered it.
“I was thinking of more the consequences of the way in my brief association with Adam Goodes (Malthouse coached an Australian International Rules side captained by Goodes in Ireland), how he would take that on board.
“I have no doubt he would be wearing those comments for all indigenous people or anyone who was offended by those remarks.
“I felt very sorry for Adam Goodes.”
Asked if McGuire’s long-serving attempts to help indigenous people should outweigh his on-air comments this week, Malthouse said: “Eddie’s not the victim in this.”]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/soccer/17407569/malthouse-support-for-goodes-on-racism-row/
confessions
Okay but in the case of Nikki Winnmer he is only really known for running around in a Saints jumper.
But again this is where its important to remember that it is how the other person felt rather than the intent so while Sam made not have been intending to be racist but if Winnmer felt that way then it needs apologizing for.
[ This whole thing is not just embarrassing, but detrimental to Australia’s position in Asia. Doesn’t take much to lose face. ]
Yes, I agree. But Abbott doesn’t care. As long as he ends up in the Lodge, he doesn’t gives a flying f*ck about what some damn foreigners might think.
And neither does Mesma – and she would presumably be Foreign Minister.
What a disgrace they are!
guytaur
[
@TheKouk: Any wonder the neo-Nazis come out with youth unemployment at 62%? http://t.co/2vPZrAZfye ]
Just a reminder of what the great J.K.Galbraith pointed out about why there was the post WWII policy to create welfare states. To prevent people falling in to the poverty that made extreme ,left or right, politics attractive. Freedom is after all nothing left to lose.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ko_bzuODTI
It is weird being born in a country as a 7th generation Australian with no right to a foreign passport and who happens to be gay,
And we have a PM and LOTO, both born overseas who not only can decide my rights and give themselves more rights than me but if they are unhappy with any thing here can escape to their birth places and all other European countries.
poroti
Menzies said Education was the greatest weapon against tyranny
Lizzie
[This is excellent.]
I agree, image the conniption fits some would have about the marriage of two sex not defined people.
Fred Nile would blow a fooffer valve.
As the polls slide slowly to Labor, boy is the unhinging going to get serious.
Menzies may have said Education was the greatest weapon against tyranny.
The modern Liberal Party believes tyranny is the greatest weapon against education.
mb:
The Footy Show should’ve just accepted Winmar’s decision not to appear and left it at that instead of carrying on like they did with Newman’s ‘blackface’ stupidity.
swamprat
And doesn’t that say it all
swamprat – I might suggest that an ALP government with a majority would be far more likely to pass SSM than a LNP majority government. I base this on a simple truth that Gillard offered a conscious vote & Abbott did not. These in my opinion are fundamentally opposing attitudes on gay rights, regardless of what the leader of each parties personal convictions may be.
confessions
For anyone who thinks Andrew Symonds impersonators donning dreads and going large on lip zinc is racist just check out the man himself. He really went overboard with the zinc on lips thang.
.
.
@Swamprat/2787
What your saying about right wingers are not helping at all either.
poroti:
Shades of Warney at one point when he was into the zinc lips stuff.
mexicanbeemer
[
poroti
Menzies said Education was the greatest weapon against tyranny
]
My initial response would be to say yes. But then Germany was probably the most cultured nation in Europe and that did not stop the rise of fascism.
[He really went overboard with the zinc on lips thang.]
Surely this is a racist comment? Larger than average lips are a common feature of non-white people.
mexicanbeemer
[swamprat
And doesn’t that say it all]
Yes, I am one for theories but I believe that the modern irrationality of the west, particularly in English speaking countries, is a sign (and cause) of the decline of the west.
The conservatives have transformed themselves into irrational anti-science anti-eductaion right-wing murdochian bots who actually think that what we do not like = reality.
The former democratic (very soft) socialist party has turned itself into an inarticulate blob of nothing very important.
Neither Party (nor the Greens which is now primarily a mass Immigrants Party with big hair-dos) seem to have any real connection with this country.
They are just what I call “media-crap”.
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 1h
Charming – one of the usual dog turds with a typewriter tries to use a workplace death as a cheap political point. Good work News Ltd]
Not just News Ltd. The ABC is doing the same groupthink:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-31/man-dies-at-nbn-work-site/4726310
swamprat@2796 – smells like Gen Y shades of grey.
mikehillard
of course you are right. I find the ALP better than the LNP.
On gay rights they are demonstrably better.
The LNP has opposed every move to gay equality in supperannuation, taxation, rights to equal leave etc.
Anyone who votes LNP is a either a homophobe, or accepts homophobia as a neccessity to make straights happier. (like all these pseudo-“liberal” right wing people on here like rummell and mod lib etc)
poroti
Yes Germany might be classed as cultured but the lession is the media and Government should be kept at arms length