Only the two weekly pollsters have reported national results this week, which have done nothing to interfere with what appears to be a post-budget uptick for Labor. This results in a 0.3% two-party gain to add to the 0.5% shift last week, translating into a gain of two on the seat projection (one from New South Wales and one from Western Australia). The Queensland Galaxy poll has translated into a relative 0.5% shift away from Labor in that state, which was mostly cancelled out by the change in the national result. Full details on the sidebar.
Preselection news:
• The Queensland LNP has chosen party treasurer Barry O’Sullivan to fill the Senate vacancy created by Barnaby Joyce’s bid for Tony Windsor’s lower house seat of New England. Barry O’Sullivan was chosen ahead of 11 other candidates, including Larry Anthony, Howard government minister and former member for Richmond; tourism executive Mary Carroll; Western Downs mayor Ray Brown; and Toowoomba doctor and social conservative David van Gend. O’Sullivan made the news in 2011 when a recording emerged of him using forthright language in dealing with a disendorsed state election candidate.
• NineMSN reports the long-delayed local preselection ballot for the Illawarra seat of Throsby, where Labor incumbent Stephen Jones faces a challenge from local Right faction operative John Rumble, will be held on June 15.
• AAP reports Emma McBride, Wyong Hospital executive and daughter of former local state MP Grant McBride, has withdrawn from the Labor preselection to choose a successor to Craig Thomson in Dobell. The report says contenders “could” include Wyong Shire councillor Lisa Matthews and David Mehan, a local union official who challenged Thomson for preselection at the 2010 election.
Other news:
• New campaign finance legislation to be introduced by the government shortly is proving a source of contention on two fronts. A plan for parties to receive “administrative funding” set according to their share of the vote, at an overall cost of around $13 million a year, has met a predictably hostile response in the media and is unlikely to be going down well with the public (a similar measure was axed in Queensland last year as part of the Newman government’s savings drive). There has also reportedly been furious opposition in caucus, notably from Senator John Faulkner, to a watering down of long-delayed plans to revise the threshold for disclosure of political donations. This was hiked from $1500 to an indexed $10,000 (now over $12,000) by the Howard government in 2005. Legislation introduced by the Rudd government in 2008, and reaffirmed as part of the minority government agreements with independents and Greens after the 2010 election, sought to bring it back down to $1000. Now the government proposes the threshold be set at $5000, a total presumably reached in negotiation with the Liberals. A government source quoted by Tom Dusevic of The Australian says a $5000 threshold will capture 60% of donations, whereas a $1000 threshold would have captured 80%. Bernard Keane of Crikey the new bill will also leave open the loophole that allows undisclosed donations below the threshold to be made to each state and territory party branch, which was to have been dealt with under earlier versions of the bill.
• Financial consultants Pottinger have produced a Bayesian model for predicting the election result which incorporates historical results and betting markets as well as polling over the current term. It projects “a central 2PP outcome for the ALP of 47.2%, with a 95% confidence interval of about 43.8% to 50.2%”, and gives the Coalition a 93.6% chance of winning the election against 1.9% for Labor, with a 4.5% chance of a hung parliament.
swamprat 2799
Only problem is many gay people tend to vote for the Liberals for they are like anyone else driven in part by the hip-pocket
[swam prat
……
Anyone who votes LNP is a either a homophobe, or accepts homophobia as a neccessity to make straights happier. (like all these pseudo-”liberal” right wing people on here like rummell and mod lib etc)]
Hey no fair….I support Turnbull who would support all gay rights issues if he was the leader.
[poroti
Yes Germany might be classed as cultured but the lession is the media and Government should be kept at arms length]
Of course Germany had a strong educational and scientific tradition (is that what you mean by “cultured”? – all cultures are cultured lol – not just European ones).
But Germany had a few other things like WW1, Versailles Traeaty, overthrow of the monarchy, great depression, large reparations (though not fully carried out), shame, shock etc
Newman’s electricity rises causing rage on Qld radio, just wait till next week when Stamp Duty on insurance goes up.
People will be parking their cars in disgust, or maybe not being able to afford them.
[Anyone who votes LNP is a either a homophobe, or accepts homophobia as a neccessity to make straights happier. (like all these pseudo-”liberal” right wing people on here like rummell and mod lib etc)]
actually, in this very rare instance the tokin libs (modlib and myself) on PB are more progressive then most labor supporters. Both of us fully support same sex marriage and are aghast at both Liberals and Labor policys.
[It has been revealed the Bligh government was involved in secret compensation talks with Palm Islanders after the 2004 death in custody of Cameron Doomadgee.
Negotiations started when the previous Labor administration was in caretaker mode.
The north Queensland community has been waiting for a settlement offer from the Newman Government.
But the Palm Islanders’ lawyer Stewart Levitt says they have been told there will be no settlement or apology.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-31/qld-government-rejects-palm-island-compensation/4726558
Typical Liberal government.
I keep trying to post for last 20 mins but crikey is being bloody crikey
[rummel
Posted Friday, May 31, 2013 at 8:07 pm | Permalink
Anyone who votes LNP is a either a homophobe, or accepts homophobia as a neccessity to make straights happier. (like all these pseudo-”liberal” right wing people on here like rummell and mod lib etc)
actually, in this very rare instance the tokin libs (modlib and myself) on PB are more progressive then most labor supporters. Both of us fully support same sex marriage and are aghast at both Liberals and Labor policys.]
Add me to that list. I’ve been saying here for ages that the Coalition should take the moral high ground off Labor on this issue. For me, one of the key principles of Australian conservatism is the valuing of the rights of the individual.
[Both of us fully support same sex marriage and are aghast at both Liberals and Labor policys.]
But both of you will be voting Labor so your supposed moral superiority over those PBers who oppose marriage equality actually counts for nothing.
Labor = Liberal.
rummel
You may say you are supporter of gay rights but you will vote for the most homo hating party in main politics because you think they are better for straights.
i am sorry but your pretend concern for gays is as honest as a Tony Abbott tear.
@Mod Lib/2802
Turnbull isn’t leader anymore.
Hmm Asbestos in the news. Mesothelioma surgery starts again. How convenient. 🙁
[CRITICAL surgeries on cancer patients will go ahead after a Sydney hospital scrapped a ban on the procedures it imposed to save money this financial year.
The delay in peritonectomy surgeries had been put in place by St George Hospital until July 1, when the next financial year begins.
The hospital in Sydney’s south is the only one in NSW to perform the specialist peritonectomy operations, which are conducted by Professor David Morris.
There are 42 people currently waiting for the surgery, 20 of whom have already waited longer than is clinically recommended.
St George Hospital on Friday night backflipped on the decision, saying the surgeries would not be postponed.]
This was the original story, no mention of mesothelioma in the latest.
[Cancer patients and survivors say they fear people will die waiting for the peritonectomy surgery as waiting lists grow because of the cuts.
The surgery, which involves removing cancer from a large part of the abdominal area, is the only hope of a cure for some cases of the deadly asbestos cancer mesothelioma.
St George Hospital is the only place in NSW that performs it.]
Why am I not surprised.
Battle Turkeys
[Surely this is a racist comment? Larger than average lips are a common feature of non-white people.]
FFS. It was his applying suncream on his lips in Black and White Minstrel Show fashion. Oh and if you bother about lip size here he is without lip protection. Pretty anglo.
Nemspy
[Add me to that list. I’ve been saying here for ages that the Coalition should take the moral high ground off Labor on this issue. For me, one of the key principles of Australian conservatism is the valuing of the rights of the individual.]
good to see…. que Team left anger in 3…2…1….
[good to see…. que Team left anger in 3…2…1….]
Oops to slow… they even beat this post lol.
Nemspy
rummel was claiming that’s exactly what they were going to do right up until the same day Tony Abbott nixed it :P.
Re. Indonesia.
Just heard Mesma on ABC radio reassuring the interviewer that – though she couldn’t go into details – the Indonesians (“at the highest level”) had agreed to be shirt-fronted by Tony Abbott and, being nig-nogs, knew their place and would provide no impediment to the Great Australian Bogan’s right to enjoy our fair land without the distraction of dago asylum seekers.
Wops and wogs are Indonesia’s problem, not ours.
Gotta hand it to these Liberals… they sure know how to inform the brown people of their responsibilities in a way that makes it stick.
So,nothing to worry about. Those Indonesians: they always lie.
The ABC interviewer sounded relieved she survived the experience intact.
[Add me to that list. I’ve been saying here for ages that the Coalition should take the moral high ground off Labor on this issue. For me, one of the key principles of Australian conservatism is the valuing of the rights of the individual.]
Spare us please Nem!
Abbott is about as likely to agree to same-sex marriage as Pell is to admit that priests he was responsible for raped little boys.
[ confessions
Posted Friday, May 31, 2013 at 8:12 pm | Permalink
Both of us fully support same sex marriage and are aghast at both Liberals and Labor policys.
But both of you will be voting Labor so your supposed moral superiority over those PBers who oppose marriage equality actually counts for nothing.]
Unfortunately Australian politics isn’t based around single issues. Labor’s policy is, for all intents and purposes, the same as the Coalition’s anyway. They only are running with what they are right now because they know it has no hope of passing. Their leader doesn’t even support it.
Why would we change our votes to Labor given that the total impact on Australian policy would be zero and then we’d have to reconcile all the problematic ALP policies which we certainly do not agree with. It’s like the way most ALP voters, in their heart, know that the Coalition are sounder economic managers but, despite this, vote Labor.
Clearly Tony Abbott pays far more attention to Mod Lib’s advice than to rummel’s!
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Friday, May 31, 2013 at 8:17 pm | Permalink
Add me to that list. I’ve been saying here for ages that the Coalition should take the moral high ground off Labor on this issue. For me, one of the key principles of Australian conservatism is the valuing of the rights of the individual.
Spare us please Nem!
Abbott is about as likely to agree to same-sex marriage as Pell is to admit that priests he was responsible for raped little boys.]
And the same goes for Gillard.
ru:
BOF is going to cop some flak for that I reckon.
Nemspy
[For me, one of the key principles of Australian conservatism is the valuing of the rights of the individual.]
This must be the most hilarious, or totally historically ignorant, post I have ever heard.
I mean are you serious ate?
The so-called illiberal Liberal Party is the only Party in our history that sent unwilling men to die for their political fantasies.
The LNP is the only “main” party that has always opposed uncensored/free media, opposed gay rights, opposed recognising that original Australians may have some right to recognition.
I mean when did you all of a sudden have respect for the individual?
mexicanbeemer
[the media and Government should be kept at arms length]
Yes indeed vital to stop meeja proprietors picking the government. Hello Rupert 😉
[DisplayName
Posted Friday, May 31, 2013 at 8:18 pm | PERMALINK
Clearly Tony Abbott pays far more attention to Mod Lib’s advice than to rummel’s!]
sad 🙁
it would be 90-10 liberal in they listened to me 🙂
swqamprat, you have to be the right kind of individual :P.
[ It’s like the way most ALP voters, in their heart, know that the Coalition are sounder economic managers but, despite this, vote Labor.]
Most evidence does not support this assertion, although I admit Liberal and Facts seem to be mutually exclusive.
[Why would we change our votes to Labor given that the total impact on Australian policy would be zero]
Because Labor has a recent, demonstrable history of removing institutional and legislative discrimination against same sex couples, whereas the Liberals have only demonstrable opposition of same.
It is Labor policy to remove such discrimination from the Marriage Act. It is Liberal policy to continue such discrimination.
If you want to champion your support for such imperatives here, then at least have the honesty not to try to claim the high moral ground when you have no basis for doing so whatsoever.
Nemspy
in my youth when I could be drafted to fight the Liberal war in Vietnam, I know for a fact that Liberal and Country Party sons were made exempt from conscription because of Ministers over ride. Only the poor fools were available to die for the Liberal Party.
Hated them forever – much worse than anything Labor has ever done.
[And the same goes for Gillard.]
Even if that is so, she does not require a party vote. The Labor vote is on conscience.
How you could possibly equate the Coalition policy with Labor’s is beyond me: one is free, the other is compulsory.
Nemspy
The UAP/Liberal Party has always WASTED this country.
Howard was one of the worst PMs in post war…
Nemspy – Unfortunately Australian politics isn’t based around single issues.
Fortunately would make more sense.
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Friday, May 31, 2013 at 8:26 pm | Permalink
And the same goes for Gillard.
Even if that is so, she does not require a party vote. The Labor vote is on conscience.
How you could possibly equate the Coalition policy with Labor’s is beyond me: one is free, the other is compulsory.]
Gillard has only allowed the conscience vote because she knows it has absolutely no hope of passing. It’s a cheap way to have her cake and eat it too.
In this case I do ever so slightly prefer the ALP position to the Coalition (Remember, I won’t be voting for Abbott). At the end of the day, though. I’m not gay and the issue doesn’t keep me awake at night. Remember, when Labor is elected everyone suffers and that includes gay couples.
2783
You have not taken into account section 44 of the Constitution which disqualifies, among others, people with foreign citizenships from being MPs and Senators. Gillard, Abbott, Cameron, Scullion and any others have had to give up the British Citizenships they were born with. The One Nation candidate who initially won a Senate seat in Qld in 1998 was ruled disqualified because of her British Citizenship (1 of the most ironic events in Australian poltics) and was replaced by the number 2 candidate. Various other migrant MPs and Senators have had to give up their other citizenships.
[swamprat
Posted Friday, May 31, 2013 at 8:30 pm | Permalink
Howard was one of the worst PMs in post war…]
Actually, he was probably the best.
I’ve worked out how PB works now. You just state your opinion and contradict all opposing opinion.
swamprat
[But Germany had a few other things ]
They did indeed. At high school “doing” 20th century European history . I remember my history teacher saying WWII was inevitable because of the fwuack up of the peace treaty after WWI. My history teacher was a RAF fighter pilot in WWII who after being injured became a bomber pilot. So he was hardly a deutschland über alles guy.
mikehilliard@2790
In my view one position is just a lesser evil than the other; both are inadequate.
Based on the proportions of votes by each party this time around Labor could have had a majority of 110 seats to 40 and SSM would not have passed. Labor could have had that majority and the Coalition could have had a conscience vote too and SSM would still not have passed. The conservative party is not likely to have a majority in support on a conscience vote, so for a conscience vote to swing it, it is necessary that the progressive party is very strongly in favour or universally in favour. And that won’t happen unless the leader is in favour.
UK Labour 9% against SSM. Leader supportive.
NZ Labour 12% against SSM. Leader supportive.
Aus Labor 41% against SSM. Leader opposed.
…and this among other things is why I recently declared the PM same-sex marriage enemy number 1 (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/julia-gillard-same-sex-marriage-enemy-1.html) and this is why, specifically because of SSM, I will not be supporting either Labor or the Coalition in this year’s election, except to the extend of placing the former ahead of the latter in a vote that neither of them are likely to see.
Opposition to SSM is no more intellectually valid than support for racial apartheid. If the contest was between a universally pro-apartheid party and a party that allowed a conscience vote on apartheid but had a pro-apartheid leader, I would not be arguing that the two parties were really all that different. I would say that the latter was the lesser of two evils, but was evil nonetheless. And I would want that party to change that leader, or that leader to change their position, before I took that party seriously.
[How you could possibly equate the Coalition policy with Labor’s is beyond me]
The policy positions on marriage equality of the major parties are diametrically opposite. Labor policy is to support marriage equality, Liberal/National policy is to oppose marriage equality.
Liberals raise the conscience vote as a means of deflection. At the end of the day there is only one major party whose policy platform is to oppose equality for same sex couples – not just on marriage, but on all the other discriminatory issues which Labor legislated against in its first term in govt: The Liberal party.
What’s happened with Labor’s conscience vote is a very good example of why voters should remain engaged and – indeed – actively lobby MPs.
Several Labor MPs – David Feeney for one – have made it clear that they’ve shifted from their original position of opposition to ssm.
This shift wouldn’t have happened if people had said, “Well, this guy’s opposed to ssm. B@stard. I’m not going to talk to him.”
The MPs who have shifted their vote have made it clear it’s because precisely the opposite happened – people approached them, knowing they were opposed to ssm, and persuaded them to change their mind.
That’s how the system should work, of course – but it’s also a reminder that we, as citizens, need to take an active part in the process, rather than expecting all the heavy lifting to be done by others.
[Oh and if you bother about lip size here he is without lip protection. Pretty anglo.]
Streuth poroti you need a sensitivity seminar even more than me. You can’t say things like that. Even I know that.
[confessions
Posted Friday, May 31, 2013 at 8:35 pm | Permalink
How you could possibly equate the Coalition policy with Labor’s is beyond me
The policy positions on marriage equality of the major parties are diametrically opposite. Labor policy is to support marriage equality, Liberal/National policy is to oppose marriage equality.]
I think “diametrically opposite” is a bit of a stretch. There’s more to politics than black and white. I have problems with both major parties platforms to differing degrees. Labor’s is a bit of weak tokenism — a bone-throw to the Penny Wong’s and co that is never going to get through. The Coalition’s is old-fashioned and wrong. I prefer the ALP’s stance here, but I’m not going to throw them bouquets for it, either.
Same goes for industrial relations the other way round. Workchoices went a bit too far but was founded in sound policy. Labors policy is ruinous. Just because of that it doesn’t mean I’d vote for a return to Workchoices in its entirety.
rummel
I try to understand, but i admit, I do not.
You prefer:
welfare based on previous income not equality. (first time in our history)
No carbon pricing under any circumstances
no gay equality under any circumstances
Although, given the thuggish LNP supports “all most evil governmnet in the last 2000 years”, I fail to understand Your undoubted extreme passion for change, unless it is for unattractive men in speedos?
or do you know the next war the LNP will commit for loyal Aussies to die for their Washington corrupt Masters, and that Libbots will be exempt from??
Confessions
[Labor policy is to support marriage equality}
Unless you are Welsh
Sorry
Confessions
[Labor policy is to support marriage equality]
Unless you are Welsh
[It’s like the way most ALP voters, in their heart, know that the Coalition are sounder economic managers but, despite this, vote Labor.]
This voter has had the misfortune to live through Howard treasurer as well as Howard PM and Costalotto treasurer. Economic management from that lot? Economic blundering more like it. Howard as treasurer presided over record interest rates of just under 22%, Fraser had to legislate to cap home loans at 13% to stop home buyers roting in the streets. Everyone had to help pay for that cap through credit squeezes and higher bank charges as the banks struggled to make up the shortfall.
Howard also gave us the appalling trifecta of double digit interest rates, double digit unemployment figures and double digit inflation figures, a ‘triumph’ no other treasurer had achieved. Then he slunk out of office leaving the incoming Hawke government a whopping great $9 billion (in 1983 money) black hole that he had lied to cover up. Much of the ‘Labor debt’ we hear about today is the leftovers fomr that huge debt. Costello, world’s laziest treasurer, wasn’t much better. He managed to gain those damn surpluses by refusing to spend on infrastructure and by flogging off anything that wasn’t nailed down.
Since Abbott is so fond of comparing the economy to a hosuehold budget let me illustrate – the way Costello ran the economy was like a home owner who refuses to pay the mortgage, maintain their home or feed the kids just so they can boast about having a big bank balance.
What Coalition supporters will never admit is that Labor does the hard work on the economy, the Libs do their best to wreck it.
Night all
Leave You to it
[I think “diametrically opposite” is a bit of a stretch.]
Official Labor policy is to amend the Marriage Act to include same sex marriage.
Official Liberal policy is to continue discrimination.
2839
The ground has now shifted slightly with Rudd`s change of mind. That may switch a hand full of other votes as well.
On the subject of equivalents of Apartheid, the most Apartheid type policy in Australia at the moment is immigration control. It bases work, residence, voting and candidacy rights on an entirely arbitrary basis like Apartheid.