BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Coalition

A modest post-budget improvement for Labor is now visible to the naked eye on the aggregated polling charts.

Only the two weekly pollsters have reported national results this week, which have done nothing to interfere with what appears to be a post-budget uptick for Labor. This results in a 0.3% two-party gain to add to the 0.5% shift last week, translating into a gain of two on the seat projection (one from New South Wales and one from Western Australia). The Queensland Galaxy poll has translated into a relative 0.5% shift away from Labor in that state, which was mostly cancelled out by the change in the national result. Full details on the sidebar.

Preselection news:

• The Queensland LNP has chosen party treasurer Barry O’Sullivan to fill the Senate vacancy created by Barnaby Joyce’s bid for Tony Windsor’s lower house seat of New England. Barry O’Sullivan was chosen ahead of 11 other candidates, including Larry Anthony, Howard government minister and former member for Richmond; tourism executive Mary Carroll; Western Downs mayor Ray Brown; and Toowoomba doctor and social conservative David van Gend. O’Sullivan made the news in 2011 when a recording emerged of him using forthright language in dealing with a disendorsed state election candidate.

• NineMSN reports the long-delayed local preselection ballot for the Illawarra seat of Throsby, where Labor incumbent Stephen Jones faces a challenge from local Right faction operative John Rumble, will be held on June 15.

• AAP reports Emma McBride, Wyong Hospital executive and daughter of former local state MP Grant McBride, has withdrawn from the Labor preselection to choose a successor to Craig Thomson in Dobell. The report says contenders “could” include Wyong Shire councillor Lisa Matthews and David Mehan, a local union official who challenged Thomson for preselection at the 2010 election.

Other news:

• New campaign finance legislation to be introduced by the government shortly is proving a source of contention on two fronts. A plan for parties to receive “administrative funding” set according to their share of the vote, at an overall cost of around $13 million a year, has met a predictably hostile response in the media and is unlikely to be going down well with the public (a similar measure was axed in Queensland last year as part of the Newman government’s savings drive). There has also reportedly been furious opposition in caucus, notably from Senator John Faulkner, to a watering down of long-delayed plans to revise the threshold for disclosure of political donations. This was hiked from $1500 to an indexed $10,000 (now over $12,000) by the Howard government in 2005. Legislation introduced by the Rudd government in 2008, and reaffirmed as part of the minority government agreements with independents and Greens after the 2010 election, sought to bring it back down to $1000. Now the government proposes the threshold be set at $5000, a total presumably reached in negotiation with the Liberals. A government source quoted by Tom Dusevic of The Australian says a $5000 threshold will capture 60% of donations, whereas a $1000 threshold would have captured 80%. Bernard Keane of Crikey the new bill will also leave open the loophole that allows undisclosed donations below the threshold to be made to each state and territory party branch, which was to have been dealt with under earlier versions of the bill.

• Financial consultants Pottinger have produced a Bayesian model for predicting the election result which incorporates historical results and betting markets as well as polling over the current term. It projects “a central 2PP outcome for the ALP of 47.2%, with a 95% confidence interval of about 43.8% to 50.2%”, and gives the Coalition a 93.6% chance of winning the election against 1.9% for Labor, with a 4.5% chance of a hung parliament.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,946 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 59
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  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Barney Zwartz gives an excoriating summary of the abuse inquiry. It is written with much feeling given his personal investment over the years.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/belated-change-in-churchs-stance-was-forced-on-it-20130528-2n9gj.html
    Zwartz with an update on settlements by the Christian Brothers.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/church-victims-win-1m-20130528-2n9o6.html
    Two of our favorites, Reith and Joyce are at odds over the constitutional recognition of local government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/joyces-swerves-of-logic-on-roads-dont-hold-up-20130528-2n9ku.html
    Ross Gittins with a call to arms to his fellow journalists to thoroughly examine and question the policies of both side. If only!!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/naivety-to-put-hope-in-new-broom-20130528-2n9gk.html
    Karma for the gutless one.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-too-frightened-to-call-no-confidence-in-government-20130528-2n89n.html
    Not even Hogwarts could put this howler to bed!
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/doubts-over-coalition-plan-to-cut-emissions-20130528-2n90i.html
    And this is despite Abbott’s continuous bad mouthing!
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/28/australia-best-place-live-work
    This is as appaling as it is illustrative.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/28/coalition-tax-school-ethics-classes
    David Pope conflates Gina and Bill Gates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg has a shot at the big end of town.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe with Bill Gates and a very downtrodden Wayne Swan.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  7. SportsBet has ticked the ALP in by a point to $7. Still massive underdogs, but the persistent polling just outside MOE and lacklustre showing by the hubris-ridden alternative has led to some informed dabbling.

  8. Good morning, Dawn Patrol.
    And anpther overdue thanks (with maths’ repeater point) to BK for his morning links.

    Great promise in Grogonomics.

    I now award NewsLtd’s War in Grog’s Blog & Outing of Grog as PS Greg Jericho so his Career’d be Roooooned as the best (?only) positive move Murdoch’s wretched Oz Mob has made in decades.

    So how’s about we all enjoy the day 😀 ing 😀 ing 😀 ing at what TheOz’s muck-raking apology for a journo achieved – turning a PS blogger into an international journo on an online paper with at least 1.1 million Aussie readers!

    Bluddy A-maaazing! HaHaHaHeeHeeHeeHaHa!

    AND I LOVE IT!

  9. Also from TheG’s Lenore Taylor Australia’s biggest companies to be forced to disclose tax they pay: Bill comes as government reacts to US revelations that IT giant Apple is ‘stateless’ for tax purposes

    Good backgrounding in international moves (esp by UK, USA) to stop huge & hugely profitable companies from avoiding tax.

    Just think of that article’s being read by as many a 1.1 million Aussies!

    Now off to see how Fairfax, ABC & other Oz MSM reported the same move.

  12. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/grogonomics/2013/may/28/australia-economy-myths-gfc?CMP=twt_gu

    likely to impact Australia. Photograph: Shepherd Zhou/EPA

    1. Australia survived the global financial crisis unscathed

    One problem with getting through the GFC without going into recession is that it’s easy to think it was really no big deal. But even if you survive a car crash and say “well, at least we’re in one piece”, that doesn’t mean there are no negative effects (or costs).

    In the 10 months from August 2008 to May 2009 the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 5.8%. That was as fast as occurred in both the 1982 or 1990 recessions. The Australian stock exchange fell more than 50% in value from the end of 2007 to the middle of 2009. It is still about 25% below that 2007 high.

    And what really smacked us is that this all happened at the very time many of the baby boomer generation were reaching retirement age. The economy thus has had to cope with the double whammy of a drop in participation and output that occurs during any downturn, and the first real hit from the ageing workforce.

    It remains amazing Australia got through as well as we did

  13. Australia survived the global financial crisis unscathed

    One problem with getting through the GFC without going into recession is that it’s easy to think it was really no big deal. But even if you survive a car crash and say “well, at least we’re in one piece”, that doesn’t mean there are no negative effects (or costs).

    In the 10 months from August 2008 to May 2009 the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 5.8%. That was as fast as occurred in both the 1982 or 1990 recessions. The Australian stock exchange fell more than 50% in value from the end of 2007 to the middle of 2009. It is still about 25% below that 2007 high.

    And what really smacked us is that this all happened at the very time many of the baby boomer generation were reaching retirement age. The economy thus has had to cope with the double whammy of a drop in participation and output that occurs during any downturn, and the first real hit from the ageing workforce.

    It remains amazing Australia got through as well as we did.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/grogonomics/2013/may/28/australia-economy-myths-gfc?CMP=twt_gu

  14. my say

    Yes it was on no whim that Swan was awarded world’s best treasurer.

    The good thing about news of happiness index is it is being reported far and wide. This of course, gives the lie to the “we’ll be rooned said Abbott”

  16. A start. In the second link Joseph Stiglitz writes on the same matter.

    [A bill to force Australia’s 2000 biggest companies to publicly disclose how much tax they pay will be introduced into federal parliament.

    The proposed law comes as the government reacted furiously to revelations IT giant Apple had a complicated tax structure allowing huge profits from subsidiaries outside the United States to be effectively “stateless” for taxation purposes.
    ]
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/28/australian-companies-forced-disclose-tax

    [Big corporates are gaming one nation’s taxpayers against another’s: we need a global deal to make them pay their way]
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/27/globalisation-is-about-taxes-too

  17. [It remains amazing Australia got through as well as we did]

    Mysay

    Labor under PM Kevin Rudd did really well during the GFC

  18. http://theaimn.com/2013/05/28/judging-gillard-and-the-labor-government/

    What is good government and how does one judge it? Thomas Jefferson often referred to the term good government. In his opinion, the Government ought to be judged by how well it meets its legitimate objectives. For him, good government was the one who most effectively secures the rights of the people and the rewards of their labor, which promotes their happiness, and does their will. For instance, he said: “The care of human life and happiness and not their destruction is the only legitimate object of good government.”

  19. Morning All

    Terrible timing by the government on the donation changes but both major parties come out of it looking pretty ordinary.

    Have to agree with some of what John Madigan says

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/ive-run-over-better-rabbits-than-these-people-senator-20130528-2n9mg.html

    We need a good solid cleanout – both majors are dudding us in so many ways.

    Good to see people picking up on the underclass being created by the no advantage test as well – we argue that single parents and new start recipients can’t live on the dole and then bring in a group we pay even less – with no work rights!!! – we’re creating a time bomb imo

    On the brighter note this is good news

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/28/australian-companies-forced-disclose-tax

    Will be fascinating to see what they report.

    Well done to Rob Oakeshott on this one

    Robert Oakeshott MP ‏@OakeyMP 12h

    A Confidence motion has been selected for debate next Monday seeking the full support of the House of Reps in Depts of Treasury and Finance

    Scary to think what happens if it fails though – luckily it won’t. How full will the house be???

  20. “”This place is rotten to the core … I’d like to see it implode,” he told a Victorian newspaper on the subject of the 43rd parliament.
    ”They wonder why people hate their bloody guts and we have a high informal vote.”
    Advertisement
    And then: ”I’ve run over better rabbits than these people.”

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/ive-run-over-better-rabbits-than-these-people-senator-20130528-2n9mg.html#ixzz2Ud1jb2PE

  24. “Labor under PM Kevin Rudd did really well during the GFC”

    That would be under Wayne Swan – Treasurer of the Year

    Rudd, like Rabbott, is rooted.

  30. http://pmopressoffice.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/tony-abbott-claim-election-will-be-referendum-on-the-carbon-tax/

    Abbott claim election will be referendum on the carbon tax

    CLAIM:

    Tony Abbott claims the 2013 federal election will be a referendum on the carbon tax.

    TONY ABBOTT: Let’s be clear. The coming election will be a referendum on the carbon tax.

    NPC – 31 January 2013

    WRONG.

    The Australian newspaper reports that only one in five undecided voters want the carbon tax repealed and only one in three people still support a repeal once given basic information.

    ONLY one in five undecided voters want the government’s carbon pricing scheme repealed, according to new national polling which suggests attitudes to the policy can still be swayed.

  32. guytuar

    29
    reading the whole article
    =============================================
    so is that a sign of more karma coming
    ================================================

  34. womble you see things through eyes of the greens,

    to obtain more funding some adjustment have to be make from time to time,

    life changes , things move on,
    ======================================

    there are couple of yesterdays people left in labor,
    the young ones have new ideas, thank goodness

  36. CONFESSIONS
    Thank you very much love your Chris Hadfield pic, havc been to the Grand Bahama(Freeport) start of a trip through the Caribbean on the supply ship to the Tall Ships. Amazing Place

  37. Twitter is rapidly becoming the most important & dominant digital news platform …whether we like it or not …more from The Guardian’s Michael Wolff

    “Twitter, which began as a tool for sharing abbreviated blog posts, has now evolved into a major part of the news media. It may be the most significant advance in news since, if not linotype and the telegraph, then, at least, cable. As with cable, every new news event of consequence advances Twitter’s presence and clout. It is first responder news; it is a real time news index; and, for more and more news consumers, it is background or passive news, like local radio once was, but on an international scale.”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/28/twitter-changing-news-media

    …and Margot Kingston is partnering with Macquarie Uni to use social media to cover the election campaign:

    “Kingston was the first Australian journalist to use online media to bring the voice of citizen journalists into the mainstream media with her Sydney Morning Herald- based website Webdiary. Her new project will build on this legacy and explore the role Twitter now plays in public debate and journalism.”

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/05/29/bludgertrack-54-1-45-9-to-coalition/#comments

  38. my say – don’t stand between a politician or major party and a swag of our money!!! Funny how they nearly always agree on this type of thing, and pay rises of course

    off to work I go, have a great day all

  45. centaur

    Much as you conservatives try and discredit you cannot change the fact of an award.

    An award that NO conservative treasurer in Australia has achieved.

    This and Australa is OECD’s happiest country three years in a row.

    So much for your conservative meme of we will all be rooned.

  50. ABC24 just showed a video of a storm chaser in that tornado last week which I watched on Facebook yesterday lunchtime.

    Old Media = Slow Media

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