BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Coalition

A modest post-budget improvement for Labor is now visible to the naked eye on the aggregated polling charts.

Only the two weekly pollsters have reported national results this week, which have done nothing to interfere with what appears to be a post-budget uptick for Labor. This results in a 0.3% two-party gain to add to the 0.5% shift last week, translating into a gain of two on the seat projection (one from New South Wales and one from Western Australia). The Queensland Galaxy poll has translated into a relative 0.5% shift away from Labor in that state, which was mostly cancelled out by the change in the national result. Full details on the sidebar.

Preselection news:

• The Queensland LNP has chosen party treasurer Barry O’Sullivan to fill the Senate vacancy created by Barnaby Joyce’s bid for Tony Windsor’s lower house seat of New England. Barry O’Sullivan was chosen ahead of 11 other candidates, including Larry Anthony, Howard government minister and former member for Richmond; tourism executive Mary Carroll; Western Downs mayor Ray Brown; and Toowoomba doctor and social conservative David van Gend. O’Sullivan made the news in 2011 when a recording emerged of him using forthright language in dealing with a disendorsed state election candidate.

• NineMSN reports the long-delayed local preselection ballot for the Illawarra seat of Throsby, where Labor incumbent Stephen Jones faces a challenge from local Right faction operative John Rumble, will be held on June 15.

• AAP reports Emma McBride, Wyong Hospital executive and daughter of former local state MP Grant McBride, has withdrawn from the Labor preselection to choose a successor to Craig Thomson in Dobell. The report says contenders “could” include Wyong Shire councillor Lisa Matthews and David Mehan, a local union official who challenged Thomson for preselection at the 2010 election.

Other news:

• New campaign finance legislation to be introduced by the government shortly is proving a source of contention on two fronts. A plan for parties to receive “administrative funding” set according to their share of the vote, at an overall cost of around $13 million a year, has met a predictably hostile response in the media and is unlikely to be going down well with the public (a similar measure was axed in Queensland last year as part of the Newman government’s savings drive). There has also reportedly been furious opposition in caucus, notably from Senator John Faulkner, to a watering down of long-delayed plans to revise the threshold for disclosure of political donations. This was hiked from $1500 to an indexed $10,000 (now over $12,000) by the Howard government in 2005. Legislation introduced by the Rudd government in 2008, and reaffirmed as part of the minority government agreements with independents and Greens after the 2010 election, sought to bring it back down to $1000. Now the government proposes the threshold be set at $5000, a total presumably reached in negotiation with the Liberals. A government source quoted by Tom Dusevic of The Australian says a $5000 threshold will capture 60% of donations, whereas a $1000 threshold would have captured 80%. Bernard Keane of Crikey the new bill will also leave open the loophole that allows undisclosed donations below the threshold to be made to each state and territory party branch, which was to have been dealt with under earlier versions of the bill.

• Financial consultants Pottinger have produced a Bayesian model for predicting the election result which incorporates historical results and betting markets as well as polling over the current term. It projects “a central 2PP outcome for the ALP of 47.2%, with a 95% confidence interval of about 43.8% to 50.2%”, and gives the Coalition a 93.6% chance of winning the election against 1.9% for Labor, with a 4.5% chance of a hung parliament.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,946 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 59
1 2 3 … 59

  4. {confessions
    Posted Wednesday, May 29, 2013 at 8:50 am | PERMALINK
    mari:

    It’s a beautiful photo as well.}

    It is ,surely Chris had some training, they are all amazing so clear etc the ones I have seen

  6. womble

    [We need a good solid cleanout – both majors are dudding us in so many ways.]

    Which is the result of voter laziness (arguably because they’ve never had a problem with it).

    Voters are not just supposed to rock up and get their name ticked off. They are supposed to look at the candidates available and what they stand for, and then vote for the candidate which best represents them.

    If more voters did that, then who the candidate was would matter more, and parties would focus on making sure they had the candidates were a match for the seat.

    And…

    [don’t stand between a politician or major party and a swag of our money!!! ]

    I don’t know why you’ve put the ‘major’ in there, unless it’s to push some barrow of your own.

    As a stalwart of HTVing, I’d say don’t get between a Green and a potential first preference – they rely almost totally (the occasional millionaire donor apart) on the electoral dosh and they’ve very keen to get their hands on it.

    And, of course, we have serial candidates like Pauline Hanson….

  8. “@Simon_Cullen: The AEC has taken the next step in registering Clive Palmer’s party. It’s completed membership check. Now open for public comment”

  9. Why is Barnaby still muck-raking about the sale of Windsor’s property years ago?

    It’s a very grubby look to be attacking someone who is such a statesman.

  14. Thanks confessions- likely, most likely, probably don’t cut it. When tobacco sales have dropped from before plain packaging then let me know.
    Now lets discuss the success of the Alcopops tax too. hahaha

  15. centaur:

    The evidence is already there. This is how research is translated to public health policy and then to legislation. I have no doubt that we will see further falls in the take up rate of smoking among young people as a result of plain packaging.

    Tobacco sales in developed countries are dropping, and have been for years, which is why companies are pushing hard to stop developing countries in legislating the same way.

    As for alcopops, there is already research emerging reporting a drop in sales of alcopops among young people. It would seem that legislation is having an effect.

  17. centaur has the morning shift from Menzies House. Like his colleagues he has little to contribute and much to denigrate making him a clone of his fearless leader, Rabbott.

  18. In my (as yet unsuccessful – though AFR might be getting there) search for an Oz MSM equivalent of The G’s articles on Tax disclosure, esp of Offshoring to avoid paying any tax, I came across these (paywalled):

    Gas fuels grand plans in Queensland’s ‘Qatar of the Pacific

    Australia too slow to react to US shale gas threat: Shell

    [Exclusive | The head of one of the world’s biggest energy companies, Royal Dutch Shell, has said Australia has been slow to react to the impact of the United States shale gas revolution.]

    NB: before reading, you need to remember that Qld has used shale gas (Roma, in the Surat Basin) for almost a century; that in the early 1960s, Qld built a very long pipeline to bring natural gas from the Surat Basin to Ipswich & Brisbane – and later built a second to meet demand.

    IOW not only has Surat Basin Natural/ Shale Gas been in use in Q for c100 years, I was able to trace mining leases/ tenements covering all forms of carbon extraction (gas coal oil) in Surat Basin back to early 1920s. Older Qlders know Brisbane’s Archbishop Duhig blew a fortune (& halted building on his “dream” cathedral) on Roma Shale Oil when Depression hit & projects collapsed.

    So why the huge outcry?

    Most mining rights/tenements/licences etc, though covering affected Qld areas for over 80 years, had never gone much past examination, evaluation, tests etc, so people ignored them, or, when they bought properties, filed to conduct due diligence on covenants, tenements etc covering their land. When, a few years ago, mining companies finally started working their leases, it was a huge shock that they could – and that the only person/ entity which owns land is The Crown; in Oz, State & (in some cases) Federal Governments.

    So what’s new?

    Fracking process:

    [Induced hydraulic fracturing or hydrofracturing, commonly known as fracing, fraccing, or fracking, is a technique in usually a large amount of water is mixed with sand and/or chemicals are injected at high pressure into faults to release petroleum, natural gas (including shale gas, tight gas, and coal seam gas), or other substances for extraction. This type of fracturing creates fractures from a wellbore drilled into reservoir rock formations.]

    When I first raised fracking, esp in regard to the effects on the Great Artesian Basin, on PB some years ago, and reported on local farmers’ reaction, is was a non issue in Oz Media, except in SWQ. Yet BIG concerns about fracking had already been raised in the UK & USA – where it DID make MSM and in a very BIG way! I well recall posting seemingly endless links to Fracking articles, especially when it affected urban areas in Brisbane & Sydney … and that the first MSM report (?Fairfax) came after I’d posted them, and after the Qld government was reacting positively to the Ipswich-Bris problem by quarantining urban areas.

  20. From last thread:

    Player One:

    [Or someone who is so obsessed in self-examination that the journey has become more meaningful than the destination?]

    The two are equal and in constant dialog. There can be no journey without a goal and no goal without a journey. The destination may change of course, as one discovers en route that a path is lacking or fraught with unacceptable hazards.

    [Perhaps I just meant that it was weird that someone should spend so much time on a psephological site who continually boasts that they have no intention of actually voting – not even for the party of which they are a member?]

    Well technically, I do cast a vote — but in practice it probably isn’t counted as I use the Langer method. I’m against coerced voting though, and voting for the ALP under duress (my vote won’t count otherwise) strikes me as “an unacceptable hazard”.

    [I can’t help but wonder what you discuss with other party members when you meet them – do you perhaps try and persuade them not to vote either?]

    I do put the case that giving an effective preference to the ALP entails endorsing their policies as the lesser harm, when on at least one ground, it clearly is not. Others may of course rationalise doing this, and it’s not for me to badger them about it. IIRC, in the senate if you correctly sequence 90% it is counted as formal. Allowing six spots for the two parties (i.e 12) that means you only have to number the first 108. Sadly, there are some other parties that I’d not like to support either on that list so I only number the Greens and ostensible socialists. Perhaps I will put Assange in the list if his group runs.

    [On the other hand, you do at least provide some welcome relief from the constant barrage of anti-intellectual trolls that PB seems to have attracted recently.]

    Well there you go — a silver lining.

  24. And, of course, with any preventative measure, no news is good news.

    If the alcopops tax wasn’t working, not only would the vested interests but the Coalition would be shouting ‘Labor failure’ from the rooftops – and the same goes for plain packaging, and carbon pricing.

    ‘Polio epidemic sweeping the nation’ is news; ‘we might have had one, but everyone’s bee vaccinated ‘ isn’t.

  26. Saw Barnaby’s interview with Fran Kelly on 24. He seems to have adopted his Coalition mates’ attitude, accusing Windsor of lying about this and this and this… Fran couldn’t pull him up and when she tried he turned on her.

    If he wants to be a “fresh face” in the HOR he’s not doing well. Harping on “liar” looks too much as if he’s being fed the Coalition milk and has no ideas of his own.

    Also, I had already seen Windsor explaining how Barnaby was able to deny receiving funds for campaigning, and when B was directly accused he went straight into Barnaby waffle mode, which suggests he’s vulnerable on that.

  28. centaur

    The press claims are that teens are going to other sources. Why? The tax is working as advertised.

    The teens are now mixing their own drinks like they used to before alcopops.

    Its working alright.

  29. Guytaur:

    @guardiannews: Ireland to introduce plain cigarette packets http://t.co/qaVS1oIL9t

    Roxon legacy 🙂

    What can I say, but quote one of my father’s (& his mother’s) fave poems (Unisex updated), taught me well before my age reached double figures:

    [In the world’s broad field of battle,
    In the bivouac of Life,
    Be not like dumb, driven cattle !
    Be a hero in the strife ! …

    Lives of great {ones} all remind us
    We can make our lives sublime,
    And, departing, leave behind us
    Footprints on the sands of time;

    Footprints, that perhaps another,
    Sailing o’er life’s solemn main,
    A forlorn and shipwrecked {other},
    Seeing, shall take heart again.

    Let us, then, be up and doing,
    With a heart for any fate ;
    Still achieving, still pursuing,
    Learn to labor and to wait.]

    Longfellow: Psalm of Life

  30. Really guytaur- the idea was to curb binge drinking- the sale of spirits has increased 20%.
    the tax is working in changing what youths drink, not how much…fail fail fail

  31. guytaur

    I’m afraid that on alcopops I might have to agree with centaur. Mixing their own can have just as bad an effect and I notice that one of their stimulants of choice, vodka, is now being brought out in fruit flavours.

  32. centaur

    That is the political spin. It does not change the fact the tax is doing as advertised.

    The tax was never claimed to solve binge drinking. Those like you claiming it was are lying.

  33. lizzie

    Solving binge drinking will take real effort from industry.
    If industry does not act government will have to.

    Just like with the gambling industry.

    However one fact is crystal clear. The tax was designed to stop the use of alcopops. There is no doubt it has succeeded in this.

  37. The difference between mixing your own and alcopops is the awareness factor.

    ‘Soft’ alchohol drinks are deceptive – they’re sweeter than the ‘mixed’ and you also are hands off from the process, so keeping track of the amount of alcohol consumed is more difficult.

    From my own observation, many people drink alcopops the same way they drink lemonade – pop the can and away they go – whilst actually mixing the drink is an effort.

    We’ve all observed it; someone says ‘What’s there to eat?” – if you offer them something ready to go, they’ll take it. If you say there’s something which requires some effort, they’ll decide they weren’t hungry after all, or opt for something else entirely.

    (In our household, with ‘snack’ drinks, it’s ‘yes, there’s ginger beer in the shed’ — ‘Oh, in that case I’ll have milk’).

  38. Lizzie

    A future government is going to have to tackle alcahol companies marketing to kids with fruit flavoured vodka and the like.

  40. Morning all – was hoping to log on & see some pleasant intelligent discussion after last nights vulgar goings on but see there’s a fly in the ointment, oh dear.

  41. @Simon_Cullen: The Fed Oppn appears to have confirmed a @4Corners report that ASIO was successfully targeted by Chinese hackers: http://t.co/zQVM4czH2c

    This was stupid by the LNP. No political gain and puts China offside. Press loves it of course it was one of their own scoop.

  43. centaur

    I refuse to be distracted from the basic discussion you brought that the legislation does not work.

    Your subsequent complaints are that the legislation works

  45. I don’t recall the government making the claim that putting a tax on alcopops would stop young people drinking. Just that they would be discouraged from drinking alcopops.

  46. never mind the teen drinking, centaur. After a year or two of LNP rule, most teens won’t be able to afford to drink..or smoke…or drive…or study…or anything much….

  49. really briefly- have the LNP advocated putting up taxes on all these products? hasn’t labor just ripped out funding from universities, hasn’t labor just put single parents on newstart?
    So which party to a majority of smokers vote for you think? I reckon labor

  50. centaur

    We will have to wait and find out if it works.

    Evidently the alcopops tax didn’t work. Studies have shown young adults just abused spirit mixes instead. But it did raise some revenue to pay fopr the damage.

Comments Page 2 of 59
1 2 3 … 59

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *