Covering the greater part of Hobart, Denison produced one of the most significant results of the 2010 election, sending one of five cross-bench members to the first hung parliament since World War II. Andrew Wilkie achieved his win with just 21.2% of the primary vote, giving him a crucial lead over the Greens who polled 19.0%. The distribution of Greens preferences put Wilkie well clear of the Liberal candidate, who polled 22.6% of the primary vote, and Liberal preferences in turn favoured Wilkie over Labor by a factor of nearly four to one. Wilkie emerged at the final count with a 1.2% lead over Labor, which had lost the personal vote of its long-term sitting member Duncan Kerr.
Like all of the state’s electorates, Denison has been little changed since Tasmania was divided into single-member electorates in 1903, with the state’s representation at all times set at the constitutional minimum of five electorates per state. It encompasses the western shore of Hobart’s Derwent River and hinterland beyond, with the eastern shore suburbs and the southern outskirts township of Kingston accommodated by the seat of Franklin. It is one of the strongest electorates in the country for the Greens, who managed to increase their vote slightly from 18.6% to 19.0% despite the formidable competition offered by Wilkie. Booth results show a clear north-south divide in the electorate, with Greens support concentrated around the town centre and its immediate surrounds in the south and Labor continuing to hold sway in the working class northern suburbs.
Labor’s first win in Denison came with their first parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, but the 1917 split cost them the seat with incumbent William Laird Smith joining Billy Hughes in the Nationalist Party. The seat was fiercely contested over subsequent decades, changing hands in 1922, 1925, 1928, 1931, 1934, 1940 and 1943. It thereafter went with the winning party until 1983, changing hands in 1949, 1972 and 1975. The 1983 election saw Tasmania buck the national trend, the Franklin dam issue helping the Liberals return their full complement of five sitting members with increased majorities. Hodgman’s margin wore away over the next two elections, and he was defeated by Labor’s Duncan Kerr in 1987, later to return for a long stretch in state parliament (he is the father of Will Hodgman, the state’s Liberal Opposition Leader). The drift to Labor evident in 1984 and 1987 was maintained during Kerr’s tenure in the job, giving him consistent double-digit margins after 1993 (substantially assisted by Greens preferences).
Kerr bowed out in 2010 after a career that included a four-week stint as Attorney-General after the 1993 election when it appeared uncertain that incumbent Michael Lavarch had retained his seat, and a rather longer spell as Keating government Justice Minister. The ensuing Labor preselection kept the seat in the Left faction fold with the endorsement of Jonathan Jackson, a chartered accountant and the son of former state attorney-general Judy Jackson. What was presumed to be a safe passage to parliament for Jackson was instead thwarted by Andrew Wilkie, a former Office of National Assessments officer who came to national attention in 2003 when he resigned in protest over the Iraq war. Wilkie ran against John Howard as the Greens candidate for Bennelong in 2004, and as the second candidate on the Greens’ Tasmanian Senate ticket in 2007. He then broke ranks with the party to run as an independent in Denison at the 2010 election, falling narrowly short of winning one of the five seats with 9.0% of the vote.
Placed in the centre of the maelstrom by his surprise win at the 2010 election, Wilkie declared himself open to negotiation with both parties as they sought to piece together a majority. The Liberals took this seriously enough to offer $1 billion for the rebuilding of Royal Hobart Hospital. In becoming the first of the independents to declare his hand for Labor, Wilkie criticised the promise as “almost reckless”, prompting suggestions his approach to the Liberals had been less than sincere. Wilkie’s deal with Labor included $340 million for the hospital and what proved to be a politically troublesome promise to legislate for mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. This met fierce resistance from the powerful clubs industry, and the government retreated from it after Peter Slipper’s move to the Speaker’s chair appeared to free it from dependence on Wilkie’s vote. Wilkie withdraw his formal support for the government in response, but it has never appeared likely that he would use his vote to bring it down.
Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Jane Austin, a policy officer with Tasmania’s Mental Health Services, who emerged as the preferred candidate of the still dominant Left. The Greens candidate is Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne. The Liberals are yet to choose a candidate, prompting Labor to claim the party proposes to play dead in order to boost Wilkie. A ReachTEL poll of 644 respondents in mid-2012 had Wilkie well placed with 40% of the primary vote to 28% for the Liberals, 17% for Labor and 14% for the Greens.
[Boerwar
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:52 pm | Permalink
If Briefly is right and Abbott stuffs up the economy then the issue of whether to build submarines in Adelaide might become simple because we will not have the money to do anything other than the sensible thing.]
And they will be faced with a choice, simulate the SA economy in some other way (costing money), or tell us we are enjoying a recession to make us strong, pray to the lord for goodlness and light. It’s a pity praying doens’t pay the morgage.
briefly
Well, the Australian public might just come to its senses. Or the Liberal Party might come to its senses. Or Abbott might come to his senses.
And ocean heat might decide to tunnel its way to the centre of the earth instead of heat exchanging us to buggery during the next La Nina.
Boerwar:
Give Gauss enough rope with Bolt…..
[ Boerwar
..
As they got thicker in 1965 there is cleary no global warming. My Bolt am I doing good.
Halfway through the Gough ABC tribute and so far all we’ve heard from are Old White Men.
Any women want to give their views about this era?
OMG a woman!!!
mike, of course the LNP cannot admit to having such thoughts, but they will not rule them out.
If they can use fear of deficits to chop social spending, they will do it. I have no doubt about it. They want to shrink the public sector. The only things that prevent them are fear of the political backlash and fear they may cause an economic contraction.
But on this as on so many other things, they have form. They will take us back to the 1930’s if they can.
I’m sure they’ll have Dame Edna on shortly.
frednk
‘And they will be faced with a choice, simulate the SA economy in some other way (costing money), or tell us we are enjoying a recession to make us strong, pray to the lord for goodlness and light. It’s a pity praying doens’t pay the morgage.’
South Australia is symbolic of all that ails Australia, IMHO: too many churches, over-populated, over-subsidized, drinking the Murray dry at the wrong end of the MDB, and costly to run. At a very minimum, they should just annexe SA to Victoria, shut down Adelaide, let a few wineries and wheat farms do their stuff and, for the other 99%, let the desert get back to doing what it does best: boom and bust.
Was it Gough who asked Margaret whether the earth moved for her too, dear during a big earthquake in China?
Or is that apocryphal?
fran
Thanks for note on arrogate. Correct.
William:
😆
Honestly!
We have a lot to look forward to:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/linda-wootton-double-heart-lung-1912498
Australia Story is updating its story on Hazel Hawke (c2002) as a tribute tomorrow night.
Will be an improvement on seeing Singo, Hadley and Carlton from last week.
[748
AussieAchmed
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:55 pm | Permalink
briefly – Abbott plans to sell Medibank and loose the over $300 million a year in revenue]
The ONLY way it would make sense to sell Medibank Private would be if they intended to change health insurance too. MB not only brings in revenue, it helps control the subsidies they pay the private funds. It makes sense to keep it…unless you have plans to get out of medical insurance completely.
[Boerwar
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 10:02 pm | Permalink
..
let the desert get back to doing what it does best: boom and bust.]
I’m sure there are a few in South Australia that do not agree.
752
Boerwar
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:59 pm | Permalink
I won’t hold my breath, bw… 🙂
frenk
‘I’m sure there are a few in South Australia that do not agree.’
Well, if we stopped wasting tens of billions on building submarines in Adelaide I would be inclined to say to them, ‘Fair enough’. Of course South Australians want to parasitise the rest of Australia. ‘The Weekend Australian’ even has an ad in it for ‘South Australia, the Defence State.’
The reality is that it is destroying our defences with its wasteful ways.
Surprised Fraser hasn’t been the Liberal-of-the-day to give his views on Whitlam. Obviously Howard was up for the gig, unsurprisingly.
Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01 6h
The Rinehart Cowboy rides again ! RT @GreenJ @theboltreport10: Subsidies for car makers are money for unions.
Russell Edwards @Grumpyoleman55 6h
@MikeCarlton01 @GreenJ @theboltreport10 …as opposed to Diesel Fuel Subsidies which are…
Tasmania has a goji berry economy and is trying to channel the Dalai Lama. Adelaide has got a submarine economy and is trying to drag us all underwater.
Thank doG for the ACT is all I can say.
briefly 765
I know I’m no economic guru. For me there are a couple of simple things that could done.
The MRRT revenue be quarantined to reduce debt and the same with the Medibank revenue rather than sell it off.
Aust needs to be working towards reducing the gross and net debt to reduce interest paid and maintain our 3 x Triple A ratings which enable Aust to borrow at lower interest rates.
A surplus should be a lower priority. Its a facilicy anyway, surplus while having debt is just money that should have been spent on the people or used to reduce the nations debt.
briefly
I am definitely not holding my breath on that little lot. As the educationists like to say it looks as if we are in for a few years of ‘learning by doing’ or, as you point out, ‘learning to do with less’.
[Boerwar
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 10:10 pm | Permalink
..’
The reality is that it is destroying our defences with its wasteful ways.]
Well that is the question, is defence about defence or the economy. I think any high ranking US official would tell you it’s about the economy, but it only works if you build you own shit to blow up. Sending the money overseas does not help.
Did you know that Lara’s hair in Pasternak’s ‘Dr Zhivago’ is black?
from the Institute of Public Affairs
Australia’s ageing population means the generous welfare safety net provided to current generations will be simply unsustainable in the future. As the Intergenerational Report produced by the federal Treasury shows, there were 7.5 workers in the economy for every non-worker aged over 65 in 1970. In 2010 that figure was 5. In 2050 it will be 2.7. Government spending that might have made sense in 1970 would cripple the economy in 2050. Change is inevitable.
==================================================
And among the main policies of Abbott is to reduce superannuation imposing a huge “pension” bill on future generations
frednk
‘Well that is the question, is defence about defence or the economy.’
In our neck of the woods, if we don’t have defence we don’t have the economy. If we piss away four times more on a submarine than we need to we will have neither a defence nor an economy.
AA
‘Australia’s ageing population means the generous welfare safety net provided to current generations will be simply unsustainable in the future. As the Intergenerational Report produced by the federal Treasury shows, there were 7.5 workers in the economy for every non-worker aged over 65 in 1970. In 2010 that figure was 5. In 2050 it will be 2.7. Government spending that might have made sense in 1970 would cripple the economy in 2050. Change is inevitable.’
Another reason why will never end up spending $38 billion on 12 submarines.
deblonay
ah, easy fix – use plastic bottles.
Good night all. If you have trouble getting to sleep you could always try counting Abbott’s lies.
[ Institute of Public Affairs
..
]
We could save a few billion and get a few more young workers by allowing to work those keen little vegemites that risked their lives to get here.
[And miss all the fun of the current spewing forth of posts I have created?]
Which is really what it’s all about for ML. No real conviction, just stirring.
Night Boerwar.
[ If you have trouble getting to sleep you could always try counting Abbott’s lies.]
Or Whitlam’s and Gillard’s achievements.
[If you have trouble getting to sleep you could always try counting Abbott’s lies.]
I prefer to count Liberals – I’m a slave to tradition…
Galaxy Poll QLD Federal – 22-23 May, 800 voters
Two Party Preferred: ALP 41 (-4) L/NP 59 (+4)
Primary Votes: ALP 28 (-5) L/NP 46 (0)
If you have trouble getting to sleep you could always try counting Abbott’s lies.
I worried that I haven’t got that many numbers
[GhostWhoVotes
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 10:26 pm | PERMALINK
Galaxy Poll QLD Federal – 22-23 May, 800 voters
Two Party Preferred: ALP 41 (-4) L/NP 59 (+4)]
Wow,
Galaxy Poll… ouch!!!
It’s a little unfair to say that ( South Australians are wanting to be parasitic) because of a potential sub build. SA has always been one of the better locations for manufacture because of its centrality. And (I can’t quote the figures )was up in the ranks as a contributor to GDP.
[Primary Votes: ALP 28 (-5) ]
Another poll where the ‘others’ benefit.
#whatever
cheers boerwar…see you soon!
Hard to reconcile Galaxy (QLD) with a 54-46 nationwide last week unless ALP is doing well in Vic and SA (assuming NSW is crapola)
New thread.
BW
[Thanks for note on arrogate. Correct.]
Not a problem. The word ‘arrogate’ has a fascinating etymology — a rollicking jaunt through proposals, and beseeching of the gods, words for being direct and straight and even kingly, and of course, lately, being overbearing and recklessly indifferent to others.
Who would imagine so much nuance could be packed into one word stem over a couple of thousand years? 😉
GDP Per state
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_states_and_territories_by_gross_state_product
The only state in real trouble is tasmania.
And equally interesting is that the other word you used — abrogate — shares this history, almost as an antonym. (“ab” + “rogare” rather than “ad” + “rogare”) — almost “unpropose” if there were such a word.
Emails for the SA Chapter Queens Birthday Weekend Knees Up were just sent out. If you want to come and don’t get an email, contact me by email address ajaxstamp at hotmail dot com.
frednk
You are SA? Do you want the SA Knees up email?
773
AussieAchmed
We can get results – great results – but it will take time. At the risk of repeating myself, we need to do these things:
Support private disposable incomes and employment, especially among the 4/5 of the population on around average incomes or less;
Re-boot both direct and indirect taxation to maintain forward fiscal stability;
Reform company tax at the same time;
Re-orient the private economy away from reliance on consumption and towards diversified exports;
Manage the currency down so that increased AUD export income flows offset the drag on incomes from import price increases, protecting employment and driving future investment;
Reform the tax shelters in Super and Property – tax shelters that both mis-allocate savings and subvert the budget at the same time;
Reform Land Taxes and Stamp Duty, so that new housing prices can come down and mobility in the property market can increase, also indirectly increasing the real value of incomes and accumulated savings;
Reform the taxation of mineral and resource exports, creating an income stream for public infrastructure investment, which will also enhance productivity;
Adopt measures to impel the allocation of capital away from consumption (where it is almost completely wasted) in directions that will improve productivity and expand both our export potential and our import displacement capacity;
Take measures to dismantle the monopolies in the economy, the existence of which acts to repress innovation, activity and investment in other parts of the economy;
Reform the carbon price by devising a bounty system that generates exchangeable, redeemable and depreciable credits and debits, in order to accelerate investment in low pollution power generation and which will bring down future energy supply costs.
In the meantime, we should not get too hung up about the Commonwealth debt. Instead, we should make the most of the Commonwealth’s financial strength and use it to support private demand and necessary social programs while we re-boot the private economy.
Even if public sector debts rise, as long private sector debts fall faster than public sector debts increase, and as long as we can grow the economy at about the same rate as aggregate liabilities, we will be enhancing total system stability. We should make this a conscious part of the plan.
Furthermore, we have to encourage the public to view household debts/savings and public sector debts/savings as being related to each other, and to learn to view the system as an interactive one in which the two sectors are inextricably linked financially. This will help break down phobias about public sector debts and improve their understanding of system stability, which is the most important consideration from their point of view.
We also have to recognise that the global economy is still struggling for momentum, and respond by encouraging diversity, resilience and adaptability in our own economy, rather than (as we have been doing all along) by placing huge bets on resources, energy, banking and housing.
We can avert a recession and stagnation in this economy, but we will not do so by doing nothing – by just hoping for the best. We need assertive management. I really hope we get it, and that it arrives before the economy goes belly-up.