Covering the greater part of Hobart, Denison produced one of the most significant results of the 2010 election, sending one of five cross-bench members to the first hung parliament since World War II. Andrew Wilkie achieved his win with just 21.2% of the primary vote, giving him a crucial lead over the Greens who polled 19.0%. The distribution of Greens preferences put Wilkie well clear of the Liberal candidate, who polled 22.6% of the primary vote, and Liberal preferences in turn favoured Wilkie over Labor by a factor of nearly four to one. Wilkie emerged at the final count with a 1.2% lead over Labor, which had lost the personal vote of its long-term sitting member Duncan Kerr.
Like all of the state’s electorates, Denison has been little changed since Tasmania was divided into single-member electorates in 1903, with the state’s representation at all times set at the constitutional minimum of five electorates per state. It encompasses the western shore of Hobart’s Derwent River and hinterland beyond, with the eastern shore suburbs and the southern outskirts township of Kingston accommodated by the seat of Franklin. It is one of the strongest electorates in the country for the Greens, who managed to increase their vote slightly from 18.6% to 19.0% despite the formidable competition offered by Wilkie. Booth results show a clear north-south divide in the electorate, with Greens support concentrated around the town centre and its immediate surrounds in the south and Labor continuing to hold sway in the working class northern suburbs.
Labor’s first win in Denison came with their first parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, but the 1917 split cost them the seat with incumbent William Laird Smith joining Billy Hughes in the Nationalist Party. The seat was fiercely contested over subsequent decades, changing hands in 1922, 1925, 1928, 1931, 1934, 1940 and 1943. It thereafter went with the winning party until 1983, changing hands in 1949, 1972 and 1975. The 1983 election saw Tasmania buck the national trend, the Franklin dam issue helping the Liberals return their full complement of five sitting members with increased majorities. Hodgman’s margin wore away over the next two elections, and he was defeated by Labor’s Duncan Kerr in 1987, later to return for a long stretch in state parliament (he is the father of Will Hodgman, the state’s Liberal Opposition Leader). The drift to Labor evident in 1984 and 1987 was maintained during Kerr’s tenure in the job, giving him consistent double-digit margins after 1993 (substantially assisted by Greens preferences).
Kerr bowed out in 2010 after a career that included a four-week stint as Attorney-General after the 1993 election when it appeared uncertain that incumbent Michael Lavarch had retained his seat, and a rather longer spell as Keating government Justice Minister. The ensuing Labor preselection kept the seat in the Left faction fold with the endorsement of Jonathan Jackson, a chartered accountant and the son of former state attorney-general Judy Jackson. What was presumed to be a safe passage to parliament for Jackson was instead thwarted by Andrew Wilkie, a former Office of National Assessments officer who came to national attention in 2003 when he resigned in protest over the Iraq war. Wilkie ran against John Howard as the Greens candidate for Bennelong in 2004, and as the second candidate on the Greens’ Tasmanian Senate ticket in 2007. He then broke ranks with the party to run as an independent in Denison at the 2010 election, falling narrowly short of winning one of the five seats with 9.0% of the vote.
Placed in the centre of the maelstrom by his surprise win at the 2010 election, Wilkie declared himself open to negotiation with both parties as they sought to piece together a majority. The Liberals took this seriously enough to offer $1 billion for the rebuilding of Royal Hobart Hospital. In becoming the first of the independents to declare his hand for Labor, Wilkie criticised the promise as “almost reckless”, prompting suggestions his approach to the Liberals had been less than sincere. Wilkie’s deal with Labor included $340 million for the hospital and what proved to be a politically troublesome promise to legislate for mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. This met fierce resistance from the powerful clubs industry, and the government retreated from it after Peter Slipper’s move to the Speaker’s chair appeared to free it from dependence on Wilkie’s vote. Wilkie withdraw his formal support for the government in response, but it has never appeared likely that he would use his vote to bring it down.
Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Jane Austin, a policy officer with Tasmania’s Mental Health Services, who emerged as the preferred candidate of the still dominant Left. The Greens candidate is Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne. The Liberals are yet to choose a candidate, prompting Labor to claim the party proposes to play dead in order to boost Wilkie. A ReachTEL poll of 644 respondents in mid-2012 had Wilkie well placed with 40% of the primary vote to 28% for the Liberals, 17% for Labor and 14% for the Greens.
crikey
I have recently come across an excellent ginger beer recipe, which uses fresh grated ginger in the bug instead of ginger powder.
Very zingy!
Puff, Gough is still a source of inspiration, and, iirc was even more deeply loathed by his enemies than our current PM. I met him just once. I was just a teenager, and was totally over-awed. He was everything we could hope for – passion, courage, intellect, wit, purpose, vision and energy.
[briefly
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 8:34 pm | Permalink
…
The timeline for the bomb is 2014/15/16.
Declines in the terms of trade…deepening depreciation…weakening household incomes….subsiding demand…escalating deficts…sagging demand for labour…falling investment rates…falling household incomes…stress in property and banking…spiraling current account deficits and deteriorating public finance…stress in the forex markets…negative gdp… downgrades in the debt markets…crisis in state and territory budgets…and so on…soaring deficits…soaring inflation, collapsing employment…
Shall I go on? This is to be the harvest of LNP incompetence, neglect, complacency and cynicism.]
It is seriously depressing, high private debt and if Abbott wins an incompetent government that seems to believe we need a recession to strengthen the economy.
Mod Lib has no idea as to what he is wishing for. Too young to know the result of 10% unemplyment.
Zoomster.
What is ‘in the bug’ and where is your link!
[699
Sean Tisme
ModLib.. don’t forget… Howard stopped the boats, saved Australia $3 Billion a year Labor now has to spend on boat people.]
Abbott will not stop any boats either until he compromises with the ALP. He is no more capable of this than of cycling to Djakarta.
frednk….it will be Fraser/Howard revisited, but worse. They have absolutely no idea what to do, as is painfully clear from their daily confusion and self-contradiction.
[Sean Tisme
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:10 pm | Permalink
ModLib.. don’t forget… Howard stopped the boats, saved Australia $3 Billion a year Labor now has to spend on boat people.]
On that topic your both in the sewer together.And both parties stink like hell.
i see mod lib has scampered back to his cave. you see that is all it takes to floor the bluster and bravado of these bullies. some plain simple economic facts and they have no comeback. zero.
Abbott will not stop any boats either until he compromises with the ALP. He is no more capable of this than of cycling to Djakarta.
what a good idea…Abbott cycle to Indonesia unaided by boats coz he will turn the back
political culture as a pendulum. Left-wing governments swing the pendulum to the left. Right of centre governments swing the pendulum to the right. But left-wing governments do so with greater force. The pendulum always pushes further left.
Puff. My 698, in case.
[briefly
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:18 pm | Permalink
frednk….it will be Fraser/Howard revisited, but worse. They have absolutely no idea what to do, as is painfully clear from their daily confusion and self-contradiction.]
Just look at the front bench. I wouldn’t trust any of of them with a jar full of sixpences (Keating was being kind) and in their hands we are to believe the majority of Australians see their future.
I cannot believe that 50% of us are that stupid. One thing is for sure, if the Liberals win I’m pulling my head in. Debt paid off and no new investments from me. Paying 17% pa for money once in my liftime is enough for me.
On reading the posts from the right-wingers here, one can see they have truly inherited the Liberal Party habits of turning grand ideas into little fears, great vision into short-sightedness and honest integrity into scheming mendacity….They are indeed the inheritors of tawdry ideals and small dreams!
crikey
it’s in an excellent book ‘The Art of Fermentation’ which I strongly recommend to any cook. Recipes for sourdough bread, sake, mead, beer, cheese, salami, yoghurt – you name it.
For the ginger beer bug, combine a couple of cups of water with grated ginger and sugar (I work on about 4 tsp of each) and add to it every day for a few days until it gets bubbly. (It takes longer for this to happen this time of year because it’s colder).
Work out how much ginger beer you want to make, and boil up half the required water (I work on 8 litres total, so 4 litres) with some more grated ginger and sugar (to taste; say six inches worth of ginger root and 4 cups sugar) with some lemon juice/zest if you like.
Strain into larger container, add rest of water and half the bug.
Bottle.
I’m still experimenting with this – it took longer than expected for the bottled ginger beer to fizz (cold weather again), but it was worth waiting for.
[the spectator
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:20 pm | PERMALINK
i see mod lib has scampered back to his cave. you see that is all it takes to floor the bluster and bravado of these bullies. some plain simple economic facts and they have no comeback. zero.]
R U kidding?
And miss all the fun of the current spewing forth of posts I have created? This has been ace fun tonight, topped off by awarding rummel his award 🙂
Let us not forget.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/lib-policy-costings-exposed-by-ruling-20111130-1o773.html
Mob blip – you are a donut.
frednk, there is nothing to do but try to make the case….events may yet turn for Labor.
crikey whitey
Oh, I know that cough! miserable scourge on humankind that it is.
stay warm, keep hydrated, ginger sounds good. take hot showers to get some steam into you. (don’t do the candle burner thingy, it is too dangerous when you are sick. better some eucalyptus spray or a few drops of Eucalyptus oil in your pillow), Vicks Rub is so expensive now, 100 grams cost me $15 and a little one was $10!
Watching the Whitlam doco and spotted Liberal posters in the crowd aligning Whitlam with Hitler.
Another thing Liberal party can claim as an achievement over the decades: a stunning incapacity to learn from one’s mistakes.
[mikehilliard
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:32 pm | PERMALINK
Mob blip – you are a donut.]
I am guessing you don’t mean that I am rich and sweet? 😉
none of Whitlam’s signature reforms were repealed by the Fraser government.
Mod Lib
[And miss all the fun of the current spewing forth of posts I have created? This has been ace fun tonight, topped off by awarding rummel his award]
So you admit you were trolling tonight?
[720
confessions
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:34 pm | Permalink
Watching the Whitlam doco and spotted Liberal posters in the crowd aligning Whitlam with Hitler.
Another thing Liberal party can claim as an achievement over the decades: a stunning incapacity to learn from one’s mistakes.]
The LNP have a copyright on egregious lies and defamation, confessions.
Re Gough Puff 695
_______________
He was a kind of Florentine Prince …full of new ideas and great words to express them in..Danta would have loved him…as well all did
A Great Political eagle…whereas Hawke was a sort of showy peacock bird..there seeking admiration but little else..and self-indulkgent too but …Keating.. he was .a political falcon,sharp and cutting
AussieAchmed @676
“And in the last 5 years of office spent $120 billion on tax cuts and $130 billion on things like the baby bonus, things that we are still paying for today.”
So Swanny WASN”T in control of the budget in the last 6 years ????? WTF, he didn’t just fall into the job yesterday although his grasp of numbers would suggest it. He has had 5 years to implement any changes he wanted instead of pointing fingers and making excuses. Also interesting that you talk about tax cuts when the biggest changes to the tax rates (including corporate) occurred under Hawke/Keating but conveniently the ALP sponsored studies seem to ignore that time in history as if it didn’t exist. How much of a structural deficits did those changes leave . i know its painful to talk about it because the collective forbids it but try, Every government, including Swanny have been the recipients of the tax legacy of previous government (and actually added to it).
It is just daft in one breath to talk about Costello cuts as some evil thing then ignore everything before him and then in another breath talk about Swanny/Gillard “lowest” taxing government when Swanny didn’t have ANY hand in achieving it. Lowest taxation revenue because of bullshit forecasts (but actually still increasing) is one thing but implying the current government actually has done anything to tax reform to LOWER taxes is not just disingenuous, its an outright lie.
deblonay
I like those analogies. Every country needs a Gough.
[AussieAchmed
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:36 pm | Permalink
none of Whitlam’s signature reforms were repealed by the Fraser government.]
And I will always maintain that was Fraser’s biggest acheivment. Bedding down Whitlam’s changes and keeping the right wing nutters under control.
briefly:
My mother’s hero is and always will be Margaret Whitlam. She was her numero uno fan up until the end.
Mob blip – no, I mean you are a confectionery in the shape of a zero.
I prefer rich and sweet….I might stick with that if thats OK?
I suspect Labor was generally surprised at how well dumping the baby bonus was received. Howards signiture act of stupidity in my view. The money would have been fare better spent on fixing up a few primary schools.
[722
AussieAchmed
none of Whitlam’s signature reforms were repealed by the Fraser government.]
Well….Medibank was abolished, only to be reinstated by Hawke. Not very deep down, the LNP are against universal insurance for medical expenses. They have form on this and Labor should be reminding everyone. If the fiscal situation gets tight, they may well abolish Medicare.
confessions, you mother has very good taste in heroes. 🙂
Zoomster…re Ginger Beer
+__________________
Years ago..with a young family..I found the ginger beer receipe a nice inexpensive way of making the product …but./…having made a large batch and stored it in a high cupboard in the kitchen,I was awakened on a very hot night with the sound of..gunfire? popping?,,,and fell out of bed into the warm darkness, and hurried to the kitchen..opened the top cupbioard to be engulfed in a tide of ginger beer flowing from the uncorked bottles onto my naked form(it was very hot)…an odd experience..and the whole batch was gone…much cleaning up ahead and my’s edicte
banning ginger beer in the future
If Briefly is right and Abbott stuffs up the economy then Abbott might achieve a 5% cut in CO2 emissions by 2020 rather easily.
If Briefly is right and Abbott stuffs up the economy then Abbott might achieve a complete reversal as Aussies jump on boats and head towards Indonesia.
735…should bave read”my wife’s edict banning ginger beer in the future “
Mob blip – stick with whatever you like, your still a donut.
If Briefly is right and Abbott stuffs up the economy then the issue of whether to build submarines in Adelaide might become simple because we will not have the money to do anything other than the sensible thing.
Boerwar…but what a way to do it!!
btw, Commonwealth Medicare payments are about the same as the projected deficit. If the LNP get in to the mood to chop, Medicare would be on their list.
OTOH, regardless of what he does with the economy, Abbott will still be able to go ahead and apologize to Indonesia for the cruel way in which they treated Australian cattle.
morpheus 726
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:38 pm | Permalink
AussieAchmed @676
I think you deliberately “misunderstand”. Which is a shame really. I made no comment about Swan or the current Labor Govt and their management of the economy.
Be critical of Govt spending all you want, you cant change some very real facts. Austraila was described as the “iron man” of the developed countries by the OECD, in the way they tackled the GFC – as Liberal do you remember that or do you continue to ignore it happened and the effects are still being felt in Europe and the USA?
Low inflation, low unemployment, low offical interest rates, low debt to GDP ratio.
And while the economic minnow Abbott compares Aust to countries like Greece, Cyprus and Italy he just reinforces his lack of any economic credentials. Greece Cyprus and Italy have a debt to GDP ratio over 100%, the USA is at 70% and the UK with all their austerity programs is sinking to above 7%. Greece Cyprus and Italy, plus Spain have unemployment at around 25%, the USA around 9%.
I’d rahter be living in Australia under Labor than anywhere else in the world.
Despite Abbott and the Liberals forever trying to sabotage our economy with all their negativity
briefly:
She’ll be delighted to learn of another Margaret Whitlam fan out there. 🙂
Briefly@733 – If the fiscal situation gets tight, they may well abolish Medicare.
A very scary prospect, what do you think their chances would be if they took that to an election?
[morpheus
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:38 pm | Permalink
..
Hawke/Keating
]
Hawke/Keating restructured an economy. Something the Liberals have never ever done. With the exception of Menzies, even in his case it was Labor that started the snowy [the NBN is history repeating itself] and put in place the commonwealth bank. Actually thinking about it, cross Menzies off.
This election is a risk because the economy is not in a state where it will work for three years without a bit of competent management. Please point to one opposition front bench member that has two brain cell’s to rub together. Don’t tell me that Gillard is not liked, tell me who is competent enough to replace her.
Boerwar…whadya mean, “If briefly is right..” Of course I’m right. 🙂
briefly – Abbott plans to sell Medibank and loose the over $300 million a year in revenue
confessions, Margaret Whitlam was all class.
I’m surprised that Gauss hasn’t trotted out Bolt. After all Bolt has been convicted of something or other unpleasant.
Plus Bolt is a dab hand at cherrypicking glaciers. Read Bolt and you would be forgiven that glaciers the world around are advancing and that the IPCC was wRONg about the global situation with glaciers. Do yourself a rummel and eyeball this graph: