Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

The first post-budget poll shows a negative reaction to the budget, but is otherwise one of Labor’s less bad results of recent times.

The first poll in the post-budget avalanche is a Galaxy survey of 1006 respondents showing the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. While it shows a highly negative reaction to the budget in terms of effect on personal finances (14% expect to be better off against 48% worse off), support for abolition of the baby bonus is remarkably high (64% in favour, 22% opposed). Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen, Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan should all be joining the party over the coming days.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

818 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. I meant to say we’ll miss the minority PARLIAMENT. No-one will miss the Gillard government, whatever Abbott does, because Gillard has made it so much easier for him now she has established bipartisan bastardry.

  2. Thanks to Pom for clearly stating this Government problems.

    Now if this Government supporters would look at that and see the lessons then they should see the future not one of dread but one of potential.

    Clear direction supported by concise communication for actions speak louder than words.

    This Government has too often focused on the words not the actions.

  3. Innes Willox was on Alexander Downer’s staff, in fact most of the head of industry lobby groups have worked for ex Howard Ministers.

  4. Jaundiced view – as a swing voter, I will be relieved to see the back of this minority government. I will be voting Liberal this election, and hopefully they get a big majority. Labor needs to start all over to get my vote back ever again.

  5. Mike 77 #265 Only Abbotts Liberals have a view that the economy is crap.

    OECD Report 2012
    The main challenge for policy is managing a sustained recovery by promoting important structural changes. Australia has continued to weather the global economic crisis well reflecting sound macroeconomic policies and strong demand from China. Although non-mining tradable sectors have struggled with the strong exchange rate driven by the mining boom, fundamentals remain solid with the unemployment rate close to its structural rate and inflation and public debt low. Growth strengthened in 2012, and the outlook is positive, even though there are mainly negative external risks, to which Australia is however less vulnerable than many other OECD countries.

    Recent progress to promote more sustainable growth based on efficient environmental policy is welcome and should continue. The introduction of a carbon price, together with accompanying measures, should encourage investment in clean energy technologies, and help enhance competitiveness in a carbon-constrained world.

  6. Well it is good old fashion warehousing

    The ALP do it within Government, the Libs do it within the industry and think tanks.

    The boundary between the two sides is very blurred.

  7. poroti:

    Why is WA’s debt so much? It’s not as if we have anything to show for it. Where’s the money gone?

  8. Ruawake, you didn’t answer the part about Gillard. And I don’t cop that. Why couldn’t Rowland wait until the morning, when the baby had been sick since sunday, and the father was looking after her? And why did she do so many media interviews if she were so concerned about her child. Smells of political point scoring to me.

  9. It’s great to see the IAG saying they want an ETS – this could, and should, open up another front similar to the PPL attack.

    Abbott will be copping it from the right and the left on more and more issues as the election gets closer – how will he respond???

  10. Well there is a potential question mark for Rowland put the request in on the Monday for leave on the Thursday.

    But regardless she should have been granted leave and a pair.

  11. womble @ 397….

    [ALAN KOHLER: Well our question then is: what comes next? And while that policy’s being developed, a so-called Direct Action policy, there’s enormous questions that the business community have which impact on their investment decisions around what does he mean by baseline and credit system? How will that work? How will we integrate with the rest of the world? Will companies be able to buy permits internationally? These are big questions for business.]

    It is certainly possible to conceive of and design a system of exchangeable credits (accruing for non-polluting power generation) and debits (accruing for polluting generation) that could operate outside the tax system, but it would involve compulsion and would need to be bureaucratically administered.

  12. jack hammer

    What are you swinging about. A mother wanted to catch the last plane out of Canberra, it was refused for no reason by a sad lot who were spitting the dummy cos Albo got an absolute majority in the HoR.

    If you are a swinging voter I have 3 dicks. 😛

  13. jack hammer
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 3:12 pm | Permalink
    Hey everyone, this is pretty random but was wondering if someone could answer this. Why did Julia Gillard go on about the whole Michelle Rowland case and say that it shows that Tony Abbot doesn’t understand working women, when it didn’t involve him, but Pyne and entsch. Also, if the baby were sick, why did Rowland go down to the ACT in the first place?
    ————————————————————

    showing all the compassion, empathy and understanding that we expect from Liberals – none…..

    Jack Hammer if cannot understand that both parents work and no doubt they made the decision that Dad would look after the kid while she went to work and that she would return and take over on Thursday.

    Very simple to understand but then its probably beyond your comprehension along with several media types and Liberal MP’s who have shown their disdain for working mothers by trying to blame her – like it was her fault that they couldn’t read and needed someone to explain to them what the letter was asking

  14. [410
    confessions

    poroti:

    Why is WA’s debt so much? It’s not as if we have anything to show for it. Where’s the money gone?]

    Highways and hospitals, mostly.

  15. Liberals must be very concerned about the own goal the opps kicked with their disgraceful treatment of Rowland, otherwise why are they still trying to blame Labor for their petty nastiness?

    Bizarre.

  16. Briefly – sounds like you would need a whole department to administer it 😉

    MB – if there isn’t he’ll find one!!!

  17. Ru

    It wasn’t the last plane out of Canberra

    The request was to depart on Thursday, there are planes on the Friday or if there is no plane available then she could have driven home from Canberra.

  18. Mexicanbeemer – why? Surely you must as an MP know that things like this a re possible when you travel so much throughout the year? Part of the job.

    My real gripe though is why Gillard says this reflects on Abbott, when he had nothing to do with it. It was Pyne and Entsch.

  19. [Bushfire – that’s a very cool idea, print replacement parts for the 3D printer. I was just thinking of the costs for tooling up to make a short run of unique parts, say for instance for old cars & bikes where you can no longer get the OEM parts. Can 3D printing be used in this application?]

    Sorry fr the late reply. Been out.

    The “personal printers” will only print up to around 250mm square by about 300mm high. The really cheap ones are smaller than that.

    They are slow, too, but if the part you’re making is small then that doesn’t matter.

    Also their resolution is 250microns (0.25mm at best).

    Using the technology I use FDM (Fused Deposition Modelling – the best analogy is a spider weaving a web, a thin filament of plastic is heated and extruded through a thin nozzle and the part is literally “drawn”, layer by layer), I take about 20 hours to make parts for one of my lenses.

    But it’s sure cheaper than having those parts made one-off by a metalworking shop… about 1/20th of the price. So, if you don’t need things in a BIG hurry you can make parts for two or three systems in a few days.

    Some of the commercial ones are much faster and finer.

    The best of them would make my parts to 50 micron tolerance in 5 hours.

    In both cases you end up with solid (ABS plastic) working parts that are quite robust and don’t deteriorate or decay over time. You can tap and thread them (larger pitches, like M5 and up are better at this, although for infrequent use M3 is practical).

    I face my stuff off with laser cut sheet aluminium that has been soda blasted and matt anodized. You really can’t tell there’s any plastic there at all, either functionally or aesthetically.

    Laser cut parts are cheap and quick, about three days turnaround, so if I co-ordinate myself and organize things properly I can make, assemble and calibrate three to four systems in, say, a week from a standing start (exclusing glass, of course… although it’s my design I have to import it).

    The number of parts I need to have machined or milled out of metal – there ARE still some critical ones – wouldn’t amount to more than $20 per system, about $1000 all up for a production run of 50.

    I even make lens caps out of plastic. These used to cost me $50 a set to have them milled from polystyrene. Now they cost $5, and take about an hour to 3D print.

    The “look” of 3D parts isn’t as wonderful as you might like. You can see the stratification and the layers, but if what you want is cheap, Just-In-Time functional parts for internal use, 3D printing is a very good way to go.

    The only problem with the industry is that great leaps forward are being made almost monthly, and you always wonder whether you should jump in now and buy a machine, or wait a few months and get something cheaper, faster, finer.

  20. jack hammer.

    Changing the way pairs are working is showing how much Abbott is willing to junk human decency for a political point.

    Every time Abott has been forceed to do the decent thing by the public outrage.

  21. briefly:

    That accounts for our mining royalties, but that debt has blown out so much in such a short period of time is inexplicable.

  22. confessions

    [
    poroti:

    Why is WA’s debt so much? It’s not as if we have anything to show for it. Where’s the money gone?]
    Buggered if I know . The one horse town meeja in a one horse town ? How else to explain his increasing the state debt during a mining boom by the total state debt he inherited EVERY year he has been in power without being crucified in local print, radio and tv ?

  23. Mike 77 – 265

    This is a country in “emergency” according to Abbott

    The truth is that Australian economy is doing well – really well. Growth 13% since 2007. Productivity growth is higher now than it was under Howard. The share market is up about 10% this year. Business investment has never been higher.

    One of the lowest unemployment rates in the developed world. Greece etc are around 30%, USA 9%.

    Net debt,as a share of GDP is low. Around 10% of GDP. USA, UK are at around 70%, Greece etc are 100% plus.

  24. The public is mostly likely wake up to them selves in the next couple of months

    Liberal party will regret that they let the murdoch puppet lead them this long

  25. [The request was to depart on Thursday…]

    Wrong as usual, the request was the get a pair from 6PM on Thursday evening.

    There is absolutely no reason why the request was refused. This is why the Liberal Party is being roundly condemned.

  26. confessions, the WA Department of State Development lists:

    Gateway WA
    Oakajee MidWest Development Project
    The Mid West Energy Project Stage Two
    Pilbara Cities
    Roads to Export

    Roads, power, water, pipelines…roads, roads, roads

  27. Jack Hammer

    Well Tone is the leader.

    Why would i need to be an MP to know that Canberra has a modern airport with regular flights into and out-of everyday and off course there is a major road which runs past Canberra called the Hume.

    It will get you too Sydney in a few hours.

  28. Pre-writing, and indeed for much of the world after the invention of writing, there were (and are) all sorts of remembered genealogies, sagas, personal reminiscences and the like. With varying degrees of accuracy these stories are, IMHO, history.

    IMHO, history involves words, whether written or oral.

    Pre-history involves the absence of words.

  29. [Abbott will be copping it from the right and the left on more and more issues as the election gets closer – how will he respond???]

    Response #1
    “But, but… Ray Hadley and Chris Smith from 2GB reckon the earth is cooling! They tell me NASA says so!”

    Response #2
    “We’re a vindictive bunch of bastards. We nobbled the ABC, heavied the Federal Police into doing junk investigations, use the courts to get at enemies, wreck parliament, abandon conventions and generally stand over and intimidate anyone who gets in our way. So, any company that betrayed the Libs by going with the Bitch’s Green Scheme, can get f**ked, for all we care. They were warned.”

  30. Scrapping the existing carbon price makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, and business in general should be applying plenty of pressure to see the status quo kept.

    Scrapping the existing system, faffing around with dodgy direct action for a few years (talk about wasting taxpayer money!), and in all likelihood we will just have to revisit a carbon price again in 5 years time because nothing else is going to have the economic muscle to cause the transitions to non-carbon technologies that are needed.

    If business want a stable environment to trade in then they should be advocating for keeping the existing system – it’s a known quantity now, it has hardly been a wrecking ball. But Tony Abbott is the one proposing upheaval and uncertainty now. The business lobby groups are starting to make noises, but they certainly aren’t at the level they should be given the stakes involved, and how much they liked bagging the ALP over “business uncertainty”.

    And of course an ETS is a market based system which is exactly what the business lobby wants and what the Liberals would be expected to support if they had a choice in the matter.

    But Tony Abbott has made repeal of it one of his few signature “policies” (anti-policies). He has so few plans or goals or principles that he has to cling like death to repealing the carbon price otherwise what else has he got? Something something budget emergency something something deficit surplus. And a crackpot PPL scheme.

    What’s Abbott for? Nothing. But darnit we’ll get rid of that carbon price! Huzzah! Why? Is this the right thing to do for the future of this country? Pffft. Politics apparently is no longer concerned with what is good or bad for the country.

  31. Meguire Bob, I do have to admire your invincible optimism in the face of all the evidence. I of course hope you’re right, and I’ll be the first to propose you for an Order of Australia if you are.

  32. Psephos
    I don’t know if you watched Insiders this morning but you might pass along to the tactics committee that, when pressed by Cassidy, Hockey could not say what the cost would be of the Liberals’ superannuantion would be to ordinary Australians. It was pretty clear that Hockey et al hadn’t bothered even considering the range of possible impacts on superannuants, of their decision.

  33. [It was pretty clear that Hockey et al hadn’t bothered even considering the range of possible impacts on superannuants, of their decision.]
    Boerwar
    Surely not! Didn’t Abbott say that they were only interested in the wellbeing of the Australian people?

  34. [426
    confessions

    briefly:

    That accounts for our mining royalties, but that debt has blown out so much in such a short period of time is inexplicable.]

    I think the debt has gone to $16 billion so far and will hit $20 by the time the building is finished.

    The infrastructure is not funded from recurrent income.

    The way the Grants Commission agreement works, when Royalty income rises, GST rebates fall. So, indirectly, some of the royalties from WA mineral and gas extraction is transferred through the Grants Commission process to other jurisdictions, especially to States with relatively older populations and fewer opportunities to increase their own State revenues – that is, to SA and Tasmania.

    We make a good contribution to the welfare of other States, not that you would know it.. 🙂

  35. BK
    Not only that but they have been castigating Gillard for not consulting industry on policy. It turns out that they hadn’t bothered letting the superannuation industry even know that they were going to rob forgotten families of part of their superannuation nest egg.

  36. Psephos

    what evidence is there to support the media’s driven opinion polls as reality

    look at the way the coalition and the pro coalition media is acting , they were predictable last week , when the budget did not go to plan for the news ltd/abbott coalition

    they had to drag margie and his daughters into the public spot light

    and they need to continue to propagate their polls to make it that Abbott is doing well

  37. Psephos

    what evidence is there to support the media’s driven opinion polls as reality

    look at the way the coalition and the pro coalition media is acting , they were predictable last week , when the budget did not go to plan for the news ltd/abbott coalition

    they had to drag margie and his daughters into the public spot light

    and they need to continue to propagate their polls to make it that Abbott is doing well

  38. But Abbott had nothing to do with it. It was Pyne and Entsch. Leader or not he wasn’t involved in THIS matter. Fair shake.

  39. Given the polls and the moribund political landscape, it isn’t too early to start working out how Labor will need to reform to get back its PV. It cannot just wait, unreformed, in the wilderness until the LNP’s tide goes out. If it does, it will be many terms before they have a chance, unless the LNP self-destructs. It must face up to what the leadership dispute was all about – the change in direction of the party along a path of pure pragmatism like the Libs.

    The first thing is to remove the ludicrously disproportionate power of the old affiliated unions in the party. It has reached the stage, as Cavalier, Latham and others who know the party have said repeatedly, that these careerists from the likes of the HSU, AWU, and SDA represent nobody but themselves but end up in control of the party. None of their erstwhile members are also members of the ALP (alright, less than half of one per cent are). That will sideline the Short/Cons and remnant red hot religious freaks from the SDA (Who represent a fraction of the 7% of the population of all religions who are regular churchgoers), and the Ludwigs et al.

    The second thing is to reverse the current top-down structure that has left the branches closing at one a week, with membership almost down the plughole. The last-ditch bullshit $5 memberships and stacks are not a long-term solution. The key is that the rank and file must have majority control of pre-selections, admin committee appointments, and policy.

    The third thing is to develop an online membership structure to cater to modern membership concepts of the C 21st.

    Those 3 things are the minimum.

  40. [Why would i need to be an MP to know that Canberra has a modern airport with regular flights into and out-of everyday and off course there is a major road which runs past Canberra called the Hume.]

    The Hume is a fair way away from Canberra, the Federal Highway takes close to Goulburn before you meet the Hume.

    The issue is there was NO reason to deny a pair. Pyne lied about it as usual and the Liberal supporters are trying to talk their way out of the mess.

  41. The Liberals delayed super policy is hypocritical for it is the only real way to reduce long term welfare spending

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