Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

The first post-budget poll shows a negative reaction to the budget, but is otherwise one of Labor’s less bad results of recent times.

The first poll in the post-budget avalanche is a Galaxy survey of 1006 respondents showing the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. While it shows a highly negative reaction to the budget in terms of effect on personal finances (14% expect to be better off against 48% worse off), support for abolition of the baby bonus is remarkably high (64% in favour, 22% opposed). Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen, Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan should all be joining the party over the coming days.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

818 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. [support for abolition of the baby bonus is remarkably high (64% in favour, 22% opposed)]

    That was my initial reaction that support for abolishing it was high.

    But it had a lot of negative press with stories of young teen mums going out and buying plasma tvs with the bonus.

    Plus many thought the $5,000 excessive as it was and did not help to have a leering costello urging people to have one for the country when he announced the bonus.

  3. One lib mess, the baby bonus cleaned up, many more to go.

    The awful structural budget deficit created by Howard and Costello, the $13 billion in super rorts and $12 billion in capital gains and depreciation.

    Typical really, labor left to clean up the libs economic incompetence.

    Hawke and Keating had to clean up after Fraser and Howard after they left the highest budget deficit in real dollar and GDP terms, double digit inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

    Rudd and Gillard had to clean up after Howard and Costello after they left a record 11 interest increases in a row, rampant inflation and a out of control structural budget deficit.

  4. [I prefer to think of it as only four months to wait until the fraud that Abbott and the Liberals have been playing on the Australian people begins to be revealed. Then we will see if all the lies and deception were really worth it.]

    One of the greatest problems facing Gillard/Swan in an election campaign when trying to run the line that Abbott and co are full of lies and deception is that the public paint Gillard with exactly those characteristics.

    Abbott can run exactly the same campaign and make it hurt more since it reinforces public perceptions of Gillard’s history.

    He can run the no carbon tax line, the surplus line, the backstabbing of Rudd line…and it hurts because they already don’t like her.

    The public have known Abbott for ages, he has been in the prominent public eye for a decade, they know what he is like, they discount it much more than they will with Gillard.

    Gillard has been and is Labor’s poison challice.

    This silly line that the public will wake up during an election campaign and ditch Abbott is exactly the same thing Abbott said about Rudd, that the public were sleep walking.

    And the most scary thing is that an election campaign is going to hurt Gillard more than Abbott. All they have to do is replay Swan, Gillard and the lot of them slagging the day lights out of Rudd….do you know awful that has and will make Labor look to the public. In fact Abbott need do no more than replay Gillard’s line of a govt that has lost its way…and the subsequent slagging of Rudd by various Gillard MPs.

    There could be a widening not a narrowing during the campaign. 54/46 could easily become 56/44

    1

  5. Thomas Paine’s post is a kick in the guts for true believers because deep down he is absolutely right.

    There will be no coming back from the abyss.

    Focus now on getting ready for the long years of opposition ahead. In a decade or so there’ll be more work to be done.

  6. …. but then, of course,
    Rudd has no-one to blame but his-crimson-self ……..
    …. he muffed it !
    …… ad-flamin’-infinitum !

  7. [There will be no coming back from the abyss.]

    Of course not, labor is doomed forever, you just have to look at history where following the 1996 devastation labor were again overwhelmingly rejected in 1998 with only 51% of the 2PP vote.

  11. And again the libs show their incompetence and ignorance of economics.

    [Liberal frontbencher Christopher Pyne has shrugged off the criticisms, saying the Coalition is unmoved by its critics.

    Critics really are not that concerned about people in the superannuation business community, lecturing the Coalition about the superannuation which is 10, 20, 30 years away, rather than the concerns they have right now about the need for tax cuts, and about the need for pension rises that are genuine.”]

    And that is the libs approach, live for today forget about the future and what you need for retirement, 10 20 30 years away.

    Tax cuts today, chaos tomorrow. Responsible economic management lib style.

  12. still no polling on the coalition

    i guess newsltd has to take the embarrassing failure from the budget week off themselves by you guess it

    fantasy island the polls the polls

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Every little bit will help.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/half-a-billion-dollars-stashed-for-poll-spend-20130518-2jtc9.html
    Nice type of guy!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/betrayed-top-dance-coach-arrested-20130518-2jtp1.html
    Is this the beginning of a slow end?
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/greens-hit-by-rising-internal-strife-20130518-2jtl6.html
    Anne Sunners dissects Abbott’s PPL.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbotts-baby-bonus-in-disguise-20130517-2jrmf.html

  14. And from the Land of the Free –

    Some cartoons on the unhinging Repugs.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/18/cartoons-of-the-day-gop-overboard/
    Bill Maher and Michael Moore get stuck into Repug obstructionism.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/18/video-bill-maher-and-michael-moore-tear-apart-gop-obstruction-this-is-treason-they-hate-america/
    Bill Maher’s “New Rules”
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/maher-if-you-think-benghazi-worst-scandal
    This week’s Gun Fail round up.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/maher-if-you-think-benghazi-worst-scandal
    A 30 minutes contribution from the erudite Bill Moyers on the war on science and toxic disinformation. He is good value.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017119610
    And we thought Alan Jones and the chaff bag remark was low! Listen to this rabid US shock jock!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/18/pete-santilli-hillary-clinton_n_3299247.html

  15. TP,

    They may not like Julia but at least they have seen what they got. Yes, she bought in a CT, but as it had any impact on the average person. No, with the compensation.

    Who cares about Rudd, is that all you right wingers have left? That’s all you can do because everything else the Coalition stands for amounts to sfa. Take from the poor and give to the rich. No forward thinking for this country, no it’s all about today. Where do you think we would be without compulsory superannuation, dividend imputation, Medicare to name just a few? Not one introduced by the Coalition. What did we get from 11, yes 11 years of a Coalition government besides the GST? I’ll tell you, the Ansett levy, the diary levy, the sugar levy, the gun buy back levy.

    In the end, low interest rates (much lower than when the Coalition was last in office), low unemployment and low inflation. And you don’t think in the hear of an election campaign that makes a difference. Delusional.

    Can the ALP get back into power, unlikely but they can ensure that the damage is minimal.

    Rant finished.

  17. TP,

    History has shown that the big projects of this country are instigated by the ALP – Snowy Mountains and now NBN. Whilst the Coalition bring us lemons like the Alice Springs to Darwin rail line.

    All they care about is themselves and want to maintain the power of the privileged and status quo.

  18. so voter now love the nbn ndis gnski
    [polling here last night]

    now happy with the baby bonus

    but will not vote laboR

    =======================
    SO WAS THE ABOVE QUESTIONS ASK IN different electorates to the do you like questions????

    we keep asking where polls are polled but no one tells us

  19. so voter now love the nbn ndis gnski
    [polling here last night]

    now happy with the baby bonus

    but will not vote laboR

    =======================
    SO WAS THE ABOVE QUESTIONS ASK IN different electorates to the do you like questions????

    we keep asking where polls are polled but no one tells us

  20. maquire

    so tell me I don’t read above

    are the actual questions,, set out above
    what did in laymans language did the people polled] get ask
    ====================================
    now this is my poll

    do u realise if you vote liberal you will loose

    gonski,,,, NBN, NDIS tampered with
    are you happy that\HECS will be means tested.
    do you trust mr abbott to keep his word

    NoW who do you think will be the best person to lead aust.
    in to a modern world
    MR abbott
    or ms Gillard.
    =========================================================
    question 2 do you know that aust, has a AAA rating and
    one of the lowest unemployment in the world

    so who do u trust to look after our ecomomy.
    ————————————————-

    of course the powers that be would say that the above is push polling
    personaly I don’t see any difference, ive been polled
    ‘about state elections
    I don’t understand the word push polls

  23. my say

    Newsltd and other polls which are media driven will always be biased for the coalition

    they will not dare to ask peoples opinion about the alternative government or even advise people what the alternative government will bring

    the current opinion polling system should be banned full stop because its done on fantasy and not reality

    if companies want to have opinion polling

    1- they should ask and advise people on

  24. if companies want to have opinion polling

    1- they should ask and advise people on

    the government vs alternative government

  25. again: in the wake of the news this week that since the carbon tax was introduced last year, ”electricity generated by highly polluting coal-fired power plants had fallen 14 per cent … while renewable power had soared”, why on earth would the Coalition dismantle it to replace it with a proposal that gives ”financial incentives to companies that cut carbon emissions … [to] cost $3.2 billion over four years”? Under the current carbon tax system, the heaviest users of electricity pay the most heavily for it; under the Coalition’s system, all taxpayers contribute to bribing

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-on-earth-is-abbott-thinking-20130518-2jt4r.html#ixzz2Tga0E4rm

  27. its the coalition own peril if they want to believe the polls the polls from biased media opinion poling

  28. agree mb

    but are the question
    liste above,

    as I said I don’t read
    them for personal reasons of my own

    as I ignore polls
    I don’t post here like you to understand polls’
    unless iam told exactly what electorates they are take in
    I am not intered

    —————————————–
    so they never ask things like,,
    if you vote liberal you will lose
    all the benfifs of the last few years

    an NO pension increases

    now that s the wording I want pols
    that’s Not TO MUCH TO ASK
    to me its a normal good honest question

  29. my say

    if they ask any questions about the coalition , or explain who they would be better off

    Abbott and the coalition would not be in the race

    thats how incompetent and bad Abbott is

    Newsltd is the real opposition

  30. my say

    Another reason why the current opinion polling need to be outlawed

    Because the media are running it

  31. was it one of the ind, who sort of said that wtte
    about polls don’t change the gov
    ———————————–
    =must google galaxy know nothing about them

  33. http://robertcorr.com/abbott-industrial-relations/
    attack award conditions and penalty rates.

    Only a few months after he became Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott and his deputy both said they wanted to scrap penalty rates.a Since then, there has been a concerted campaign by bosses to do just that. In March, employers made 20 applications to slash penalty rates for low-paid workers. They were rejected by the Fair Work Commission in a “strongly worded ruling”, because there was a “significant ‘evidentiary gap'”—the bosses couldn’t back up their demand for pay cuts.b
    ==========================================================

    read more

  36. my say
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 8:36 am | PERMALINK
    was it one of the ind, who sort of said that wtte
    about polls don’t change the gov
    ———————————–
    =must google galaxy know nothing about them

    ——————

    True

    and sont be surprise nielson and newspoll try to claim a victory for abbott

    in reality

    Elections are won on who will be better for the country

    like in 2010 – Abbott is not the answer

  37. Tony Abbott has revealed the goods and services tax could be included in a full review of the tax system if the Coalition is elected, raising the prospect the 10 per cent rate could be lifted or the tax broadened to include food, education and health services.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-gst-is-back-on-the-table-20130517-2js0b.html#ixzz2Tgf0t5qy

    ======================================================

    so now as above gst on health

    education
    who would that work

    so the gp become a tax collector
    what if u are bulk billed
    and will the gst on on pbs items

    will the pbs be abolished,
    who knows

  38. Tony Abbott has revealed the goods and services tax could be included in a full review of the tax system if the Coalition is elected, raising the prospect the 10 per cent rate could be lifted or the tax broadened to include food, education and health services.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-gst-is-back-on-the-table-20130517-2js0b.html#ixzz2Tgf0t5qy

    ======================================================

    so now as above gst on health

    education
    who would that work

    so the gp become a tax collector
    what if u are bulk billed
    and will the gst on on pbs items

    will the pbs be abolished,
    who knows

  39. The biggest problem Labor has is the Liberal propaganda machine know as the Murdoch press.

    The propaganda has convinced people that debt is a bad thing and that surpluses should be the norm and that any Govt not having a surplus is a “bad” Govt. This is despite that the debt has been created by spending to maintain jobs and build infrastructure, the two go hand in hand.

    The propaganda machine ignores and deliberately avoids mentioning that the Govt has a Triple A credit rating from all three rating agencies giving a very exclusive 9AA ratings. Something very few countries have achieved post GFC.

    The propaganda machine would have people believe that the GFC did not effect Australia and it was something that happened elsewhere.

    Government achievements rarely get mentioned or are given a negative spin to support the image they have reinforced of a “bad” Government.

    This Govt has given us low unemployment, one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios among developed countries, low inflation, low official interest rates.

    The Murdoch propaganda machine do not raise the lies and backflips of the Liberals and Abbott in particular, and there are plenty of them. But to publicise them would destroy Abbott becoming PM.

    It is not poor performance that will lose them the election – it is the propaganda and misinformation.

  40. The Fitz Files

    I’ll say it again: in the wake of the news this week that since the carbon tax was introduced last year, ”electricity generated by highly polluting coal-fired power plants had fallen 14 per cent … while renewable power had soared”, why on earth would the Coalition dismantle it to replace it with a proposal that gives ”financial incentives to companies that cut carbon emissions … [to] cost $3.2 billion over four years”? Under the current carbon tax system, the heaviest users of electricity pay the most heavily for it; under the Coalition’s system, all taxpayers contribute to bribing the polluters to no longer pollute.

    Honestly, does that make sense?

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-on-earth-is-abbott-thinking-20130518-2jt4r.html#ixzz2TggF2LOY

  41. [The federal Liberal Member for Mayo has been accused on Nine News of attacking the memory Jack Ross, Australia’s oldest digger from World War I who passed away this week.

    The federal Parliament passed a condolence motion to honour the man’s service, our last living connection with the war that was meant to end all of them.

    Nine News reported last night that Jamie Briggs interjected during the Prime Minister’s remarks in the House that “Only the good die young”, because the digger had also been a long-serving member of the Australian Labor Party.]
    http://www.vexnews.com/2009/06/omg-liberal-mp-attacks-australias-oldest-digger-during-condolence-motion/

  42. one could not even begin to think how you would
    put gst on health and education
    education is free, so far
    so would it be on the hecs, which is being tampered with
    means tested by lnp abbott

    so where do you tax education,

    some one please explain,

    health you have sugery a 2000 operation,
    so where and who and how do you pay gst on that
    when your fund covers you.
    so what component of that payment is
    gst on.
    would it be we pay gst on our private cover
    MR ABBOTT TELL US HAVE U WORKED ALL THIS OUT
    or was it just a ramdom thought is it costed

    ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????//

  44. lizzie
    that man should be thrown out of the

    liberal party
    CAN U IMAGINE MALCOLM FRAZER standing for that

    but abbott want give a toss

    if he does he will expel briggs from the party

    I am so disgusted

    ================================
    many die young for their country
    that’s what Anzac day is all about,
    not lets see what the RSL do about this

    a petition should be drawn up the same organization

    that did the myer one re the remark from their ceo

    ====================
    this has to go further
    what disgrace

  46. Abbott’s rejection of the Gonski school funding measures, makes the election about education

    Abbott is taking away billions of dollars from school children.

    Abbott’s announced that the low-income superannuation contribution will be killed and the increase in compulsory super deferred. And he proposes a rise in GST and a widening of its base

  50. aussie

    all u say is why I don’t believe polls

    ================================
    IF EVERYTHING U JUST SAID WAS ON THE FRONT PAGES

    OF THE PAPERS
    PEOPLE WOULD KNOW AND WAKE UP

    ===============
    how dare they not have these things on the front pages

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