Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

The first post-budget poll shows a negative reaction to the budget, but is otherwise one of Labor’s less bad results of recent times.

The first poll in the post-budget avalanche is a Galaxy survey of 1006 respondents showing the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. While it shows a highly negative reaction to the budget in terms of effect on personal finances (14% expect to be better off against 48% worse off), support for abolition of the baby bonus is remarkably high (64% in favour, 22% opposed). Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen, Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan should all be joining the party over the coming days.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

818 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 15 of 17
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  1. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 6:32 pm | Permalink
    guytaur:

    So Denmark didn’t win? I could’ve sworn I heard earlier this morning that they did.]

    I heard it too – on the 3AW 9.00am news.

  2. I caught that poll when ABC News Radio tuned to the BBC. Their casts from GB really are a pleasure.

  4. Psephos

    [Who could vote in the primaries?

    In the French Socialist Party presidential primary, anyone who was willing to pay one euro and sign a statement saying they were a PS supporter. 2.6 million people voted. I would favour something that broad.]

    Would you have to be from the electorate to vote for the seat candidate or would it be a state thing?

    Would they all vote for party leader and other positions?

  6. jv
    I just got a pleasant surprise when I looked up Wikipedia and saw that Borgen has thrre series each of 10 episodes. It’s really good stuff.

  7. Nice, well-dressed lady from Denmark did win. Knowing that won’t diminish the entertainment.

  8. Hmm, something for SeanTisMe… footage just now of Australian-sourced beef cow bleeding to death slowly following botched butchery.

    So, STM, policy-wise, what would you have Abbott do? The same as Howard which was the same as Ludwig, or would you have Abbott apologize to Egypt? Please bear in mind that the live trade industry has currently halted exports to Egypt of sheep in relation to a cruelty incident.

  9. Psephos

    Who would pay for the primary election? It would be pretty expensive unless it was an Internet vote.

  11. Psephos

    [The so-called “rank and file members” are 60% ethnic stacks (thanks, Kim Carr) and 40% retired school teachers. The average age of genuine members (ie, not stacks) is about 60. I’d abolish branch membership]

    Not going to let you get away with that comment as though it was a unique situation.

    Try 1500 members paid for by the right in Banks in the late eighties. Thanks to Mountford Punch and even Iemma et al!

  12. [Speaking of plutocrats, have we had a poll yet which tests whether anyone actually intends voting for Clive Palmer?]

    Nope, he quotes a crap newspaper online poll.

    I guess if “others” keep increasing in has to be Clive or the Hat Man.

  14. (Just back briefly while waiting for something to cook)

    I have a suggestion for those who advise people on job targets in future – do not quote them! Tere is a saying that generals are trained to win the last war, and I think too many economists are trained to fix the last recession. The next economic challenge will not be jobs, it will be productivity.

    With an ageing workforce, jobs will be less of a problem. We will not need to create so many jobs per capita to maintain low unemployment. Despite the gloom, right now unemployment is under 6%, with no government stimulus (spending cuts in fact) and mining boom over. That is not bad. So promise unemployment rate targets, but not job targets. I have seen several long term economic strategies recently that proclaim job targets that will be impossible to meet. When you allow for the employment participation rate, we will not need to meet them either.

    Focus instead on productivity, as Keating did. Without it, real wages will go down, as Asia neighbours start to compete for the high wage jobs as well as low wage manufacturing. That will happen within a decade. The NBN will help, but we need to do lots more.

    I’ll pretend I didn’t hear about the Eurovision result. Adieu again.

  19. [Would you have to be from the electorate to vote for the seat candidate or would it be a state thing?]

    Yes I would think so. The AEC could administer it just as they will administer any election, for a fee.

    [Would they all vote for party leader and other positions?]

    I would favour direct election of the Leader, yes.

    [Who would pay for the primary election?]

    Voters could pay a fee, as in France. I doubt a $5 fee would deter many voters. If you had 5,000 voters in a seat that would be $25,000. You could have internet voting, they have it in some US states now.

  22. AC

    You wouldn’t believe some of the jobs the Yanks vote for in their Presidential elections.

    They have elections for the Drains Commissioner.

  23. I think that you should pay a % of your pre-tax income to vote in a primary.

    I think the Finns impose traffic penalties on that basis.

  25. A candidates quality is relevant to the system for determining who candidates are. If a system always throws up bad candidates then the system does need to be analysed to see whether or not it is the system`s fault.

  26. [
    Would you have to be from the electorate to vote for the seat candidate or would it be a state thing?

    Yes I would think so. The AEC could administer it just as they will administer any election, for a fee.

    Would they all vote for party leader and other positions?

    I would favour direct election of the Leader, yes.

    Who would pay for the primary election?

    Voters could pay a fee, as in France. I doubt a $5 fee would deter many voters. If you had 5,000 voters in a seat that would be $25,000. You could have internet voting, they have it in some US states now.]

    Fair enough. Sounds better than the current system.

  27. Socrates

    Productivity is rising at a healthy rate, (excepting mining where non-productive mines are kept open due to higher than normal prices).

    Abbott keeps talking about productivity but he seems to be stuck on labour productivity and his answer is to reduce unit labour costs.

    If you cannot get a train to work or find a place to park your car or if the bus is 20 mins late are all productivity issues, but Abboott would not have a clue about them, or if he did he would not care no votes in it for him.

  29. What about the argument that it is very divisive for a party to have say Gillard and Rudd and possibly others campaigning against each other like in the US?

  31. Diog,

    [AC

    You wouldn’t believe some of the jobs the Yanks vote for in their Presidential elections.

    They have elections for the Drains Commissioner.]

    That sounds like a real shit of a job (boom! tish!)

  32. BK
    [” I just got a pleasant surprise when I looked up Wikipedia and saw that Borgen has thrre series each of 10 episodes. It’s really good stuff.”]

    Nice prospect isn’t it?

  33. MTBW

    Thanks. Just hope the party realises it’s taken several wrong turns (or lurches), and only radical change can fix it. Means some of the central-control perpetrators have to concede they were wrong, so it’s unlikely. They don’t do contrition well – it mustn’t be a feature of Catholicism.

  35. See you tomorrow bludgers, I recon there will be a poll for everyone and none will predict the election outcome.

  36. If you were wondering why 66% of Liberal supporters are denialists:

    ‘A 2011 study of opinion columns appearing in The Australian found that climate change contrarians outnumbered four-to-one those authors calling for firm action to reduce fossil fuel emissions.

    In the US, the Union of Concerned Scientists has looked at climate change coverage in the Wall Street Journal and on Fox News over a six-month period. In the case of Fox, UCS classified 37 out of 40 segments as “misleading” on climate change science. In almost a year of Wall Street Journal articles, just nine out of 48 articles were deemed to accurately reflect the state of the science.’

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/planet-oz/2013/may/17/zombie-climate-sceptic-theories-newspapers-tv

  38. Gauss, direct and indirect taxes as shares of the economy have declined.

    Leaving aside GST, compare 2005/6 and 2011/12.

    In 2005/6, nominal GDP was $966.746 billion. Direct tax collected by the Commonwealth was $176.198 billion, or 18.2% of GDP. Indirect tax and other income tallied to $45.444 billion, or 4.7% of GDP. Outlays totaled $206.018 billion or 21.3% of GDP. Revenue was 22.9% of GDP. The surplus was 1.6% of GDP.

    In 2011/12, nominal GDP was $1,467.784 billion. Direct tax collected by the Commonwealth was $321.268 billion, or 15.6% of GDP. Indirect tax and other income tallied to $56.837 billion, or 3.8% of GDP. Outlays totaled $328.7 billion or 22.4% of GDP. Revenue had fallen to 19.4% of GDP and the deficit was 3% of GDP.

    Between 2005/6, the economy expanded by 51.8% in nominal terms. Direct tax expanded by 31.2% in nominal terms. Indirect tax expanded by 25.1% in nominal terms. Had the revenue share of the economy not declined, the budget would still be in surplus.

    Interestingly, the notable areas of increase are in education (from $15.9 to $29.0 billion), health (from $37.5 to $62.0 billion) and housing and community amenities (from $2.2 to 6.2 billion).

    The rate of increase in these areas and other allocations to the States account for the (still quite small) increase in outlays as a share of GDP. There is very strong popular support for spending in these areas. In fact, there is still demand for even more public spending in them.

    The biggest single area of spending – social welfare – has increased from $86.2 to $126.7 billion, or 47%, less quickly than the economy as a whole. Real welfare spending per capita has been growing less quickly than the economy as a whole. This is in spite of demographic drag, which is increasing the proportion on non-working adults in the population as a whole.

    Considering the GST is only equivalent to 3.4% of GDP, even if the rate were increased to 15%, by itself this will not stabilise public finance. There is just no doubt that direct tax collection will have to be rationalised at some point in the near future.

  39. Diogenes

    I don’t like the concept of primaries on the US model. The party can still run based on a membership model. They’ll have plenty of rank and file to vote if they get power back from the current parachute droppers at Head Office.

    Primaries don’t fix the fiefdom problem when it comes to policy and admin positions.

  42. Joe – I mean you no harm, no need to be so precious. Just stating that I would never give any party my undying support. They have to earn it. Ruawake – you’re so lucky to have three dicks, and here I’ve been with just one my whole life.

    Michelle Rowland was wromg to use her child for political point scoring, and Gillard did the same. Abbott had nothing to do with it.

  47. TLBD

    There is no way that Abbott (Credlin/Loughnane) would not have determined the pairing rules. It was part and parcel of his ‘Gimme the Job or I’ll Wreck the Joint’ strategy.

    In this case he wrecked a mother’s opportunity to be with a sick child and suffered some collateral damage. But hey.

  48. {Tim Ferguson ‏@WithTimFerguson 35m
    BREAKING: Abbott GST Rise Denied By Tooth-Fairy #Auspol
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
    Mari R ‏@randlight 31m
    @WithTimFerguson @misskylie77 Hope the Tooth fairy didn’t have her teeth punched out!
    Hide conversation Reply Delete Favorite Mo}

    Tim obviously liked my return tweet he favorited it and retweeted, seems to be a comedian

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