The first poll in the post-budget avalanche is a Galaxy survey of 1006 respondents showing the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. While it shows a highly negative reaction to the budget in terms of effect on personal finances (14% expect to be better off against 48% worse off), support for abolition of the baby bonus is remarkably high (64% in favour, 22% opposed). Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen, Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan should all be joining the party over the coming days.
Unfortunately my electorate is Fraser so I’ll just have to vote for Dr Leigh. Sigh.
John Howard had said that the “GST would never become part of Liberal Party policy”, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goods_and_Services_Tax_(Australia)
[Unfortunately my electorate is Fraser so I’ll just have to vote for Dr Leigh. Sigh.]
I can actually choose to vote Clive if I became demented. 🙂
Thanks Mari – I like learning….
[confessions
Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 6:39 pm | PERMALINK
mari:
They do seem to be on high rotation these days.]
Burn out as they can’t take the heat in PB’s kitchen :devil:
Hockey has said we will not increase the GST unless the States want it, Well NSW and WA want it, I am sure the rest will call for it in the next week or so.
Dumbo politics.
There is the well-known Black Duck (Anas superciliosa), a small one of which posts on Bludger. There is the Wood Duck* (Chenonetta jubata) which Abbott’s spivs seek to pluck.
There are lots and lots of other species of ducks. But there is no Proverbial Duck.
*More correctly, a goose, sometimes called a Maned Goose.
ruawake @ 623
Is this satire? 1.6 – (-1.1)= 2.7!!!!! This 2.7 represents a change over 6 years from a cash balance in 2007- 08 of +1.7% GDP to 2013- 14 of – 1.1% GDP (rounding difference)
Defence Budget? They cut defence spending.
ruawake:
Exactly. He’s all but said GST would be increased by a coalition govt.
You are a fast learner AA 650 🙂
I wonder whether we will get a whole new set of ads about breaking the chains when Abbott increases the GST?
I wonder how they will put it? Breaking some more chains?
Here’s a Liberal quiz
Which promise will Tony Abbott deliver first:
A) 2 million jobs
B) planting 1 billion trees
Only Liberal trolls are eligible to answer.
Its interesting to watch who makes comments and when.
Some obviously only during working hours only – paid to comment?
[I wonder whether we will get a whole new set of ads about breaking the chains when Abbott increases the GST?]
Abbott didn’t rule out advertising, but he did rule out Joe Cocker. Apparently he’s “passe”.
[Who could vote in the primaries?]
In the French Socialist Party presidential primary, anyone who was willing to pay one euro and sign a statement saying they were a PS supporter. 2.6 million people voted. I would favour something that broad.
So the devious Hockey and Abbott are going hide behind the “skirts” of the states…GST goes up or changes they will wimper – not our fault its the states….
Now thats true leadership ..NOT….gutless is what it is
Fingers crossed
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/rain-to-spread-across-the-nation/24578
Guass
{25.1 – 23.5 = 1.6 so a 1.6% of GDP reduction in receipts.
23.4 – 24.5 = -1.1 so a 1.1% of GDP increase in spending.]
If you have a 1.6% of GDP reduction in receipts and a 1.1% increase in spending you have a 0.5% reduction in money to spend, it is not rocket science.
The 2.7% figure is rubbish, its like adding peanut butter and vegemite.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-gst-is-back-on-the-table-20130517-2js0b.html#ixzz2TcYOQMzT
Tony Abbott has revealed the goods and services tax could be included in a full review of the tax system if the Coalition is elected, raising the prospect the 10 per cent rate could be lifted or the tax broadened to include food, education and health services.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-gst-is-back-on-the-table-20130517-2js0b.html#ixzz2Tj7hp0ew
=====================================================
I am still waiting for some one to explain how
the gst can be on health
so no bulk billing,
is on prescriptions so NO pbs
is on surgery , so what it be paid on
before the benefit or after the benefit is paid,
or is medi care on the way out.
will it means tested
=====================
and free education,,, how will the gst be applied to that
so is he planning on privatising education
Why is it that when it comes to opinion polling, news reporters seem to forget the difference between one and many?
One poll comes out and it is reported as “X has failed to gain ground in the latest polls” or “the latest polls show bla bla bla”.
On the other hand if there are many polls usually the one which best fits the current narrative is used and the others discarded.
661
Requiring some money could be good as long as it does not exclude (anti-poll tax provisions pretty much rule it out in the USA).
There i also the issue that a presidential primary is going to draw out more voters than one for an ordinary MP.
[In the French Socialist Party presidential primary, anyone who was willing to pay one euro and sign a statement saying they were a PS supporter. 2.6 million people voted. I would favour something that broad.]
Not a bad way to get 2.6 million. How much did it cost to organise the whole thing?
I don’t think a one euro charge deterred anyone from voting.
I don’t know.
The french have ended up with Hollande, not a good argument for their pre-selection system.
Never been polled for years all of a sudden getting polled on what seems a regular occasion.
Just got Robopolled again
Six questions only
1/. What is the most important issue? Health, Education, Economy, cant remember the other three?
2/. In previous federal elections which party have you predominantly voted for?
3/. If a federal election was to be called today which party would you vote for?
4/. Are you very sure you would vote for that party, reasonably sure, unsure, very unsure?
5/.Are you male, female?
6/. Press the last two numbers of the year that you were born
No identification of who was conducting the poll or on whose behalf, just straight in to it.. Hello we are conducting a short survey of peoples intentions of the coming election in September and would like you to answer a few questions.
Funny how they ask /say the questions are regarding your intentions for the September election then ask you which party you would vote should an election be right now.
Required reading for all Hockeynomics or Hammocknomics followers.
[Why government debt must grow forever]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2012/11/2/interest-rates/why-government-debt-must-grow-forever
[Here’s something to think about next time you hear someone bang on about the growing level of gross government debt in Australia – over the next five and probably 10 years, the Australian government will continue to borrow money, thereby boosting the level of gross government debt, whether it needs the money or not.
Why borrow money if you are running a budget surplus?
This is because there is a requirement for Australia to have a high grade, liquid and tradeable government bond market that grows in size over time, in proportion to the size of the economy.]
If the Coalition actually tries to implement any of the main pillars (trees, business payouts, soil carbon storage) of the Direct ‘Action’ policy I will be very, very surprised.
It will be dumped unceremoniously as unjustiable expenditure in an ‘economic emergency’. And climate policy will be back to what it was in 2006.
if u read wikki the states where not consulted
re the gst
and as most states will be liberal, of course they will say yes
what double talk is that.
I met a young mother today that not heard about abbott
ppl. I explained the one that’s would go,
she indicated from the conversation she would not vote for abbot,
but this generation with children around 5 year
as so politically unware
well we had national service and Vietnam at there age’
=============================================================a lady said yesterday well its all in god hands
mm I said well if abbott gets in it means we are being
punish for the greed that is in the country,
=================================================================but what about the rest of us
who don’t deserve to be treated like slaves and serfs
Denmark won the Eurovision, which means nothing at all, but I’m pleased in a silly way because they have a fine example of the best parliamentary voting system in the world, which has tremendous respect from the people, despite having had over 100 years of minority government.
It also makes some of the best ever television dramas (eg Borgen; The Bridge). Go Denmark!
Regarding question 3 on the Robopoll the options were ALP, LNP, GREENS, KAP, Any other party, undecided.
No mention of Clive the hounddogs party as a party like KAP.
Boerwar,
Mr Bruni would have been better?
[There i also the issue that a presidential primary is going to draw out more voters than one for an ordinary MP.]
Of course. In 2010 4.7 million people gave their first pref to Labor. If 10% of them voted in primary elections, that would be an average 31,000 votes per electorate – more in safe Labor seats, fewer in hopeless seats. That’s a pretty respectable vote.
AussiAchmed @ 641
On the PPL you missed various posts on mine. The LNP PPL is about increasing female participation in the workforce. The $500 Super payment for incomes under $37,000. You are aware this replaced the previous $1,500 co contribution? Not sure at this stage that the LNP may not reinstate the latter.
Regarding penalty rates. Not LNP policy but its simple. For example roll historical weekend penalty rates into award rates so that all days are treated equally. Weekend penalty rates are an anarchoism.
Not you, but there has been a lot of talk about how Abbott is robbing workers by delaying the increase in the statutory super payments to 12% because of budgetary constraint. What utter crap. Any worker can increase what super contributions they make by making salary sacrifice contributions. The difference is between compulsory and voluntary contributions and the fact that the former will lead to a greater accumulation of funds in super accounts. Any worker who thinks that a compulsory contribution will not be at the expense his salary/wage, in the long run, is dreaming.
ps that was a liberal voter by the way that said its In gods hands
——————————————-
then I said no, its in the people hands to see that democracy is looked after
as we are leading up to an election, should liberals be allowed to make statements with out links
I don’t think they should
be
I flushed out two today,,
William its not good enough,,
it not right to let people read who come and look at the site, and go away with the wrong knowledge
[The french have ended up with Hollande, not a good argument for their pre-selection system.]
He defeated an incumbent president – what more do want from a candidate?
gaffhook
yes the polls cannot be taking seriously unless the
include clive party and Katter party
I dont take them seriously but
yes the Katter and clive parties should be included
gaffhook
yes the polls cannot be taking seriously unless the
include clive party and Katter party
I dont take them seriously but
yes the Katter and clive parties should be included
The French atm are what Australians are tending to.
Speaking of which, there some seriously hilarious results in this poll http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/poll-shows-favorable-views-eu-220435242.html
Christine Wallace has some advice for the Dirty Digger – in short, piss off.
[Rupert’s mental landscape becomes his media outlets’ mental landscape and reporting framework osmotically, not robotically. There’s no need for general dictats: just as Rupert lives and breathes and thinks, so do his news organisations. He owns them so no-one can argue with that. But it’s become florid over the last couple of years, and a bit boring and ridiculous. The Heritage Foundation-style flourishes that now seep into headlines and between the lines in even some of Murdoch’s Australian outlets jars with our ethos, even with those who, like me and most of the rest of contemporary Australia, agree with him that Adam Smith trumps Chairman Mao. The Rupocracy has become a showcase for every aging ALP saddie who knows that trotting out the “class warfare” sledge against their own side guarantees a glowing page one story and a favourable editorial, proving that prostitution to the press remains, tragically, an irresistible temptation for those down on their political luck.
But I’m not giving up on Rupert. I grew up reading the little Adelaide tabloid, The News, that his dad left him all those years ago. Despite blots like News Limited’s coverage of the Whitlam Government towards its end, and the florid turn of his outlets in recent years, I’ve defended him for most of my life, for two reasons. It takes special talent to take a tiny asset like Adelaide’s The News and build the biggest media empire in the world from there. In this respect Australia could do with scores more Ruperts. If he could do it in media, an industry in which Australia has no particular comparative advantage, there’s no excuse for others not to do it in other sectors of the economy instead of falling back endlessly on good old reliable mining. The other reason is that there’s an open, cheeky, likable Australianness about Rupert that makes it hard not to simply like the bastard – though it’s in danger of being worn away from keeping company too much with those (mostly) awful LAWPs.
Rupert Resurrection for me would look like this. Ditching the divisive class rhetoric curdling the polities in which Rupocracy rules. Disavowing use of economic statistics the way Pauline Hanson famously treated immigration statistics – as “just paper figures” ignored when they don’t fit one’s purpose. Cleaning out the stables of the old, shop-soiled propagandists who risk News Corporation projecting in the contemporary world like right-wing versions of Les Patterson, out of touch, out of time and out of credibility. Pursuing valuable elements of the IPA speech that aren’t plutocrat-friendly, like a crack down on business welfare including corporate subsidies, grants and bailouts – and reflect this in the tone and balance of reporting. And most of all, handing over the reins to daughter Elisabeth*– the Murdoch child who combines brother Lachlan’s heart and brother James’ confidence with a bigger brain and better judgement than either – and with age and lack of jaundice on her side.]
http://chriswallacecolumns.com/2013/05/19/its-time-for-the-elisabethan-era-at-news-corp/
No my maths is wrong again. It’s 3,100 per seat if 10% vote. I thought 31,000 seemed a lot.
absolutetwaddle:
I reckon that’s a reasonable assumption.
P
(1) A better socialist candidate. Hollande is less than impressive.
(2) He needs to make some sort of signal that the ever-rising deficits and accumulating state debt cannot continue into infinity.
(3) He needs to give some sort of sign that chasing France’s richest people out of the country was just plain stupid.
(4) He needs to give some sort of sign that the proportion of the french economy occupied by the government is far too high.
(5) He needs to get on his wheels and address a situation in which SME startups are virtually absent in France because of the social overheads companies have to pay.
OTOH, I would rate his intervention in Mali highly and his disintervention in Syria just as highly.
LAWPs?
[Regarding penalty rates. Not LNP policy but its simple. For example roll historical weekend penalty rates into award rates so that all days are treated equally. Weekend penalty rates are an anarchoism (sic).]
This would be true if you could go to a bank on a Sunday or maybe a Medicare Office, how about trying to get your kids to school on Sunday.
All days are not the same and we have not ditched the weekend. So stop pretending all days are the same. They are not and people should be compensated for working when their family and friends are communing.
So, the best flanker in Rugby misses out on a guernsey because the Waratahs killed him. (George Smith, for those who don’t know)
Borewar, stop being tiresome. You know I’m not discussing Hollande’s merits as President. I’m discussing methods of choosing candidates.
Uh, I hadn’t read TLBD’s link but it sort of buttresses my views in 689.
for Psephos
[ It’s the stuff of someone spending too much time hanging out with Living White American Plutocrats (LAWPs) who, in the way Dead White European Males (DWEMs) dominate the canon, now dominate public debate in the Anglosphere.]
psephos
‘Borewar, stop being tiresome. You know I’m not discussing Hollande’s merits as President. I’m discussing methods of choosing candidates.’
Petty name calling noted.
My point is that the proof is in the pudding. If the outcome of your preferred method is Hollande, then perhaps the method is less than perfect.